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boilerhorn

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by boilerhorn

  1. 4 minutes ago, Dewey said:

    I'd rather reach deep into my draft and get some kid from directional tech than to go with either of those two. 

    That is the prudent plan if the coach and GM were not on the hot-seat.  The conventional wisdom for Chicago is, "We are a QB away and need to get one so we do not squander the opportunities that the rest of the roster gives us."  They have a stout - but aging - defense.  This motivates overpaying for a known quantity vs. building for the future.  

    The top QBs in this class are Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones, and Lance, as they all received first round grades.  It's possible one of them gets to 20 (maybe Jones or Lance).

    The NFL is a QB league.  All winning teams have good QBs.  Few losing teams have "good QBs."  (and, yes, I recognize that a strong OL/RB roster can help).  That Chicago made the playoffs (8-8, yes) with Trubisky and Foles indicates they have a good roster. 

    And if you are going to trade for a QB, you try trade for a winner - or one who has definitely shown flashes of brilliance.  Wentz won in Philly but dropped of precipitously this year.  The OL stunk and Philly lacked playmakers.  Could he be salvaged in Chicago?  Absolutely.  2020 was by far his worst season as a pro.  INT rate was 2x average; sack rate was 2x his average.  If that was anomalous, he's worth trying again.  But I am not sure he's worth the king's ransom needed to get him.  I consider taking on his contract as part of that ransom.  If he does not pan out, you've taken on a 3-4 year contractual millstone.

    On paper, making a run for Darnold makes sense, esp. if you can get him for #20 and a 4th.  Why not try?  You might just be getting another Trubisky.  Yes, Gase was a shitty coach and Darnold shows flashes of being a top-16 QB.  He shows more flashes of being a bottom-quarter QB.  This is a good summary:
    https://jetsxfactor.com/2021/02/06/sam-darnold-concerning-weaknesses-featured-in-2020-film/

    All that to say: The Bears are kinda screwed.  They do not have a clear way out of being a 7 to 9 win team in the next 2 years.  That is compounded by the fact that the GM/HC are on the hotseat.

    BTW - the Colts are in a similar bind.  Rivers retired.  They have Brissett and Jacob Eason on their roster, but neither of those will get you out of Round 1 of the playoffs.  But Rivers did not either :)

     

  2. The Rams' strategy here is interesting.  They've had no first round pick since 2017 and will not have another until 2024.

    Here's a timeline of relevant Rams activity.
    2014 - Starter Sam Bradford out for the year.
    2015 - Bradford traded to Philly for Nick Foles.  7th round pick to Texans for Case Keenum.
    2016 - Trade up from 15 to 1 to get Goff.  Same class as Wentz and Prescott.
    2016 - Jeff Fisher fired mid-season.
    2017 - Sean McVay hired.
    2017.5 - Pick traded as part of Goff trade.  Could have had: Mahomes or Watson with that pick.
    2018.23 - Traded for Brandin Cooks.  Reasonable trade, late #1 for known quantity.  Overpaid him.  Traded with a 4th to Houston for a 2nd.
    2019.31 - Traded to 31 and 206 to Atlanta for 45 and 79.
    2020.20 - Traded for Jalen Ramsey
    2021.25 - Traded for Jalen Ramsey
    2022 - Traded for Matt Stafford
    2023 - Traded for Matt Stafford

    They've had the same GM since 2012: Les Snead.  I understand the recent philosophy - trade high draft picks (valuable, yet unproven) for established and proven players.

    With what we know now, they should have played all of 2016 with Keenum and drafted either Mahomes or Watson in 2017.  That said, their coach/front-office composition in 2016 would not have seen the value of either of Watson or Mahomes for 2017; I'm sure that Fisher and Snead discussed the 2017 draft class before pulling the trigger.   Hiring McVay allowed them to salvage the Goff pick.  #21 and #25 for Ramsey seems like a good football value, contract notwithstanding.  

    I do not see the Rams having top-10 picks in 2022 or 2023.  Their roster and coaching staff is too good.  So trading for Stafford makes sense.  They've seen Goff's ceiling and clearly think Stafford's is higher.  

    Sending Goff, 2022.15, 2023.15 and a 3rd seems like a king's ransom.  Consider

    • Goff's crappy contract
    • Stafford's relatively decent contract
    • The demand for capable, established QBs is high

    Did they overpay?  Perhaps, but they were competing with Colts, NE, Denver, SF, Carolina, and others.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 16 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    I guess it will depend some on his coordinator hires, but Campbell's a meathead who will likely give a lot of quotes like this that get fans and beat reporters fired up only to go out and play stupid, outdated football that results in a lot of losses and getting thoroughly out-coached.

    A 2021 version of Mike Tice w/o the roster (Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, etc.)

  4. 6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

    To help all of surl understand the new rules, how would they have been applied to Tom Herman?  When could the "Fire Tom Herman" thread start?

    • Warehime hired
    • After he uncomfortably hugs Mack Brown at intro press conference
    • After intro press conference
    • Warehime clogs toilet and swears like a sailor on recruiting visit to Walker Little's house
    • Admission that he watched zero film of players
    • Runny eggs and burnt toast
    • Halftime of Maryland Game (down 30-14)
    • End of Maryland game (0-1 meets less than 50% criterion)
    • Other? 

    Crud - meant to edit, but quoted myself.  Sorry, folks.

  5. 56 minutes ago, immamac said:

    Fire threads can be started when they are warranted. Examples below

    Historically bad performance in a single or multi game span

    An off the field incident

    Having less than a 50% win pct in year 1

    To help all of surl understand the new rules, how would they have been applied to Tom Herman?  When could the "Fire Tom Herman" thread start?

    • Warehime hired
    • After he uncomfortably hugs Mack Brown at intro press conference
    • After intro press conference
    • Warehime clogs toilet and swears like a sailor on at Walker Little's house
    • Admission that he watched zero film of players
    • Runny eggs and burnt toast
    • Halftime of Maryland Game (down 30-14)
    • End of Maryland game (0-1 meets less than 50% criterion)
    • Other? 
    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
    • Rage+1 1
  6. 8 minutes ago, Machinator said:

    I wasn't on the message boards in the 90s. What did people think of Mack Brown's initial staff hires at the time?

    As a reminder, his 1998 staff:

    OC - Greg Davis
    OL - Tim Nunez
    RB - Bruce Chambers
    TE - Tim Brewster
    WR - Daryl Drake
    DC - Carl Reese
    DE - Hardy McCrary
    DB - Everett Withers
    ST - Mike Tolleson
    SC - Madden

    Staff was the same in 1999, if I recall correctly; Oscar Giles and Tom Herman were added as GA.

  7. I'm curious why these guys feel the need to publicly declare who they turned down.  Ego and projection of relevance.

    me: Boss, got a 2x offer from competitor.
    Boss (option 1): pack your bags and fuck off.
    Boss (option 2): we'll match.

    If option 2 is chosen, boss and I don't skip down the halls declaring he just doubled my salary.  We'd both be universally hated.

    I guess I am about to answer my own question - they announce this shit so that (1) coach's ego can be stroked and (2) program's ego can be stroked (3) BMDs ego can be stroked.

    • Hook 'Em 1
    • Like 1
  8. 29 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

    It was the Hyatt restaurant. Damn good fajitas, but your fitlump barrage spoiled that memory.

    You misspoke.  Thats Ms. Honorable Fitlump, Esteemed Leader and Representative of the 6th District of Austin for its Confederacy of Dunces (aka City Council).

    • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
  9. 2 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

    They werent terrible students but those days are over at Cal.  They're closer to ND and Stanfurd these days in who they admit.  Think they're allowed 1 sub 3.0 gpa admit per class or something these days.

    And frankly, considering Cal's budget challenges and struggles to hold onto top notch faculty, I suspect Texas's academic rep is closer to Cal's than most realize these days

    Overall academic reputation - yes; absolutely.  Athletics, on the other hand, will not be encumbered in a similar fashion.

  10. 2 minutes ago, Zhorn96 said:

    Having been a Cal fan my entire life, I wouldn't wish that on anyone

    Bad attempt at a joke on my part, I guess.  There's an occasional theme that UT admin and AD - in their occasional perceived apathy or inaction - are trying to turn the UT AD "into Cal" with academic standards and other agendas.  If Cal was able to get Marshawn Lynch and DeSean Jackson on the field, their "academic standards" are allowed to slide...

  11. On 12/3/2020 at 4:40 PM, boilerhorn said:

    They've only beaten 1 team with a winning record: the Colts.

    The 8 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 26-53-3 (30.5%).
    The 3 losses have come against teams with combined record of 23-10 (70%). 

    • 11-0 Pittsburgh beat them 38-7.
    • 6-5 Baltimore beat them 38-6
    • 6-5 Raiders beat them 16-6

    They suck.

    My strident post from ~ 1 month ago did not age well.  Steelers finished out 1-5, including the playoffs.  Cleveland finished out 4-2, including 2-0 against the Steelers.

  12.  

    https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30685827/houston-texans-ignored-search-firm-hiring-gm-nick-caserio-sources-say

     

    If only Texas had ignored K-F, too.  That said, it looks like the Texans screwed the pooch here.

     

    Khan and ESPN Monday Night Football analyst Louis Riddick, who are both minority candidates, were the two finalists before Texans owner Cal McNair changed his mind, ignored the recommendation of the search firm he paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to do weeks of work and hired former New England Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio, sources said.

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