Captainant
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Posts posted by Captainant
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1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:
How the fuck can anyone fall asleep listening to RFK’s voice?! Like nails on a chalkboard.
I was gonna say like a fork in the garbage disposal, or my dog choking on some bullshit he found on the ground. I can't imagine how anyone is able to fucking work with that walking brainworm
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1 hour ago, scramblyn said:
btw they do not have to make a profit right this minute. If AI is a game changer, the entire battle is over which massive company ends up with the most market share of consumer users. Amazon didn't make a profit for what, two decades? these companies can invest billions to capture users through habit and preference formation - copilot vs chatgpt vs gemini - etc. and play that game for the better part of a decade before they need to see it turn right side up for profit.
now the chip makers have a lot less leeway for long term plays, they need to make profit now. the real estate plays in AI are even more so, sink a billion dollars into a state of the art massive AI data center campus and you for damn sure better start collecting premium rents as soon as it's complete. both of these groups are doing just fine.
The majority of the cost of the AI data centers is the chips, not the surrounding infrastructure. Those chips will be EOL in 3 to 5 years, which means year one being negative revenue is really putting them behind the eight ball for offsetting that capex depreciation
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I wonder if invading Venezuela for their oil will help or hurt oil markets
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21 minutes ago, scramblyn said:
where did you get your 60% number? buildings, power capacity, other infrastructure like tenant fit out for data centers, software development is all capex too. Yes NVIDA and AMD chips are expensive, but I have a very hard time buying it's 60% of the total capex spend. I'm also not convinced there is a true asset bubble. equities over-inflated possibly, but a systemic risk to the economy I'm not so sure. I could definitely see a glut or soft market for a few years if things are overbuilt but I'm not sure we are there yet, there's no available space in the high end data centers and serious power and water constraints in many cases which act as a brake to some extent.
Which company is the far and away most valuable in the world right now? It's Nvidia. That's all just AI chip sales, all going into those data centers. The 60% number is from articles like this one
Where "short term assets like AI cpus and gpus" are getting 50% of gross capex spend, and most big tech CFO's are reporting in earnings calls that the "vast majority" of capex is going towards AI chips.
So there's hundreds of billions of investments just this year that have to return a profit within three years, and are currently losing money every time they conduct a LLM transaction with a customer
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Good news! Fossil fuels no longer contribute to climate change!
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40 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:
Is that going to use desktop parts or laptop parts? Haven’t seen specs on it yet, but not really in the market.
GamersNexus has some coverage on it, it's using a Zen4 6C/12T desktop part and a RX7600 equivalent card (around an RTX 3060). It's not designed to be the most powerful thing, but it'll play pretty much everything at 1080p and you can use FSR (deep learning upscaling) to play at 4K and have it look reasonably good.
But the benefit is that it's a standard hardware spec, fully supported by Valve and with the weight of their troubleshooting and community behind keeping it working well. The SteamDeck has come a long way since its launch and all that development effort is going into the Steam Machine.
It's not building your own, but it looks like it's gonna be a compelling option if you just want a PC gaming box that works
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12 minutes ago, Goredho said:
If instead an app had been built to give a musician-specific interface into ChatGPT being a music theory tutor at learnmusictheory.com, it would get a lot more use in this regard. Like an onscreen keyboard to "play" with a mouse to exercise what is being discussed, maybe midi integration to check what notes you played on a synth and give feedback, maybe a Spotify integration to pull up a song at a specific point that illustrates a point of theory, maybe some "learning paths" within theory as starting points to seed the AI discussion for the complete neophyte. Domain specificity with prescriptive workflows. Most people won't even think of ways it can help them because they just see a chat bar.
TBH DeepComposer with AWS was a pretty good implementation of that idea - it converted a .midi file into a "piano roll" which is basically a visual format of a midi file, and they would apply custom transformer models to the piano roll to change the style. Stuff like "make this melody jazzy" or "add accompany parts to this song". I think it's been since deprecated, but it was a really interesting swing at the idea. And it was before LLM's were really a thing, but still using the Transformer architecture.
The github is still up with Jupyter notebooks that explain the methodology though, both for setting up the GAN architecture to train a new producer, and for actually augmenting a song.
https://github.com/aws-samples/aws-deepcomposer-samples/blob/master/ar-cnn/AutoRegressiveCNN.ipynb
https://github.com/aws-samples/aws-deepcomposer-samples/blob/master/gan/GAN.ipynbI think this stuff is fascinating since it's blurring the line on input modality and communicating ideas between parties
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wowser, when I think of "Trump's America" I really think Channel 5 with Andrew Callaghan has some incredible boots on the ground stuff
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22 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:
Imma getting the F off on a comp thread was not on my bingo card today. But that aside, I’m starting to have the PC curiosity v console. Yeah, the itch has started. Someone help push me over the edge-it’s really that much better? What’s really drawing me is access to more games.
You should really consider the Steam Machine when it launches early next year. It's an actual computer running a Steam operating system that makes it extremely similar to a console experience. Except it's a full-on PC so you can mod your games and load in whatever software or emulators or media you want. Because it's YOUR computer, not a locked down console.
You can use it like a PC with a mouse and keyboard and normal desktop experience (it's Linux, but honestly very similar to a baseline Windows experience), or use it just with a controller like you would with a console under your living room TV.
I'm really strongly considering one myself since my wife wants her PC back and not to be our living room gaming PC
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5 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:
I advise everyone to make your own library of movies and TV shows by sailing the high seas of the Internet. Use Plex or Jellyfin to host on your own server, and make your own library. These big companies can't be trusted to allow access to content forever, and will not miss an opportunity to find ways to charge more for things you already paid for. Even if you "buy" a movie on Amazon Prime, if Amazon's license expires for it, you will no longer have access. It's total bullshit.
Hell, a Blu-ray drive and trips to the local library can build out a local library of files pretty quickly. And yeah having an eye patch is never a bad idea with a Plex server lol.
It's been such a nice change for my family. I built mine back in 2020 as a COVID project and it's been churning out video for friends and family ever since. It's really nice to never have things go away (unless I choose to delete it for space) and to be able to add whatever I want whenever I want.
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27 minutes ago, Goredho said:
I use it a lot to "hone my craft". One of the better ways to learn music theory right now is to just chat with ChatGPT about it while sitting at a piano validating what it tells you. I say that as someone with a mid-level understanding of music theory that is using ChatGPT to increase that understanding. Is it as good as a Berkeley school of music education? No, but its better than static youtube video content because I can ask questions, delve into what its saying and direct it where I want the lesson to go. Ultimately, it helps me be better at what I love doing at a commitment level I can make.
This is a really fascinating hands-on example, since LLM's literally don't know what music sounds like. Your ear is able to easily acid test the output and advice given to you, and those models have almost certainly ingested enough music theory information to actually give good guidance. It's like having a music tutor on-demand to ask questions to. It can't listen to you, but you can get some useful information from it.
29 minutes ago, Goredho said:If this is all AI was going to be for the arts, it would be a great and empowering tool. But that's not going to be all it will be. People like Cuban are going to use it as a way to further commoditize the arts. Streamline efficiency and cost optimize its production so the capitalist can capitalize. But, that's not really anything new. AI is just the newest method.
As always, its not the thing, its the humans directing the thing that are the fucking problem.
My job is technical at its core, but involves alot of creativity in terms of picking tradeoffs and putting together workarounds for deficciencies. I've been able to use genAI to really help speed up some of my solutioning and troubleshooting, but it's really only something I use every once in a while. But it is extremely effective when I choose to use it as a tool.
The problem (IMO) is when it's not just another tool in your toolbox, and is instead the beginning and end of your workflow. That wrong leap is often made by management that doesn't really understand or care what their people do, and are just KPI jockeys. If your only abstraction to what is being produced is some dashboard or KPI or P/L line, then it's easy to think that AI can just do everything.
The most successful genAI implementations i've seen so far have been when it's been used to augment an existing process or workflow to remove annoying bullshit or workaround a specific blocker. Nearly all of the failed projects have been when someone just writes a really fancy prompt and burns a billion tokens to do the same thing that a simple API could have serviced for way cheaper
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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Trump sees this as just a real-estate deal, if Ukraine will give up some, Russia will be happy. Europe is taking the stance that it will just buy Putin time to re-arm and try and fill out the ranks.
Trump is wanting to run the Chamberlain playbook, and the rest of Europe remembers how WWII went.
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16 hours ago, Beau Vine said:
ya know, it's funny how these "prediction market" goons are now advocating for the use of insider information in their markets. This feels like nothing but a means for Don Jr to extract some money from useful idiots
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20 hours ago, Vegas64 said:
FWIW, I'm not an AI apologist.
If you aren't you're saying all the same arguments that an AI apologist offers. You keep going back to the fallacy of it being a useful bubble - none of this hardware is long-term viable.
The reality is there's been billions, if not trillions, of debt taken out to fund these data center build outs. The majority of that spending has been to buy nvidia chips. There's gigawatts of unused nvidia chips sitting around because they can't build out the data centers because of how unique and specialized they are to run genAI workloads.
Each rack takes 600KW of power to run, is liquid cooled, and requires specialized network infrastructure to properly operationalize. And for all that effort, they aren't making ANY profit or net positive revenue. Each query they service costs more than they charge for it.
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19 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:
My dad brought up ICE on thanksgiving and was talking about all the positive aspects of this ridiculous operation. My wife and I brought up some of the horrible implications it has had on people we know. His response: “Well, there will always be a few good people caught up in the net.” I don’t know where I got my empathy but it definitely wasn’t him.
There's people who get so far down a wrong line of thinking that they let it take over everything in their brains, for fear of admitting they were wrong. Your dad is unfortunately one of them it sounds like. He doesn't want to admit that he wrongly trusted a fascist, and so he's lying to himself to soften the blow to his ego.
There's lots of people like that these days.
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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
I wish it was, but now that we will be actively going after tankers, the temperature has been raised substantially.
That's an outright act of war to blockcade a country. Black and white, that's definitionally an act of war
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4 hours ago, Modessit said:
Because she's right about one very specific thing: anything that doesn't fit the lockstep of the nutjob groupthink y'all tend to exhibit is immediately dogpiled and destroyed. Especially coming from the members that spent all that time bitching about Jimmy Kimmel being shut down. "Freedom of speech!" Remember that? But no, can't have dissent.
This is a hilarious fabrication that is so often repeated as a grievance. What an absurd equivocation: the federal government punishing speech it didn't like, versus a message board telling someone they're repeating lies?
Where's the neg into Bolivia? Where's the trail of abandoned accounts? It's just GRUhorn derailing and the performative victims proclaiming how unfair they're treated.
4 hours ago, Modessit said:And yes, some people just have stupid opinions, but if you can't debate without resorting to childish name-calling and profanity, then your just as useless as they are. Put them on ignore and move along. Or post the receipts about why your right so they look stupid when they ignore you. Then put them on ignore.
Tell me you've never faced a bully without telling me. You can't ignore them into submission or just give them what they want and hope they go away.
4 hours ago, Modessit said:So, I guess as the resident "DT bitch", please take your shit back to the CR shithole and let us get back to talking about how awesome Ahmed was.
It really is funny how you're mad at the """CR""" for the derail by a troll sock account. If anything, you should be mad at the mods for reclassifying trolling as "just doing a bit".
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31 minutes ago, Tuco said:
Also, this generation of chips are mostly liquid cooled because their energy density is so high. It’s literally impossible to blow enough air to cool them. Some older data centers did just have outside air for cooling in colder climates, but that’s not practical now.
The density and power consumption of these things is unreal. 600 kilowatts through a single server rack is mind boggling, and then when you throw in closed loop cooling and heat pumps to move all that heat away from the chips... It's insane how much power is being burned on these things that don't actually make a profit
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12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:
Tell us, then, what is an "encounter"?
I've been "encountered" by border patrol a few times going to/from and on my wife's family's ranch down near Presido. Once was on foot while hiking on our land - he looked at our boots and made note and kept on doing his thing. Another was driving to the ranch, and we got stopped by BP because they didn't recognize my car and wanted to ask why we were in the area. Have more BP, get more encounters. That's just how their job works.
It's funny to see GRUhorn or whichever troll sock it is come in and so successfully stoke the false victimhood of """unfair thought policing""". Must be nice to never have to change your playbook
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10 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:
I read this and have more or less thought it true. Curious your thoughts:
glass fiber laid in the ground is not vendor-specific hardware that has a three to five year operational span, which is what the majority of AI capex expendatures have been on.
Not on datacenter capacity, not on power generation or delivery, not on reusable infrastructure. Not like the other bubbles that you and AI apologists keep going back to lol.
60% of overall "AI" CapEx spend has been on hardware that has a lifespan shorter than my wife's last iPhone. That is going to leave a smoking crater in the books.
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39 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:
I thought the big difference in this bubble versus the previous was that it was largely being funded by equities and NOT debt though. Hmmmm, are we being lied to?
Not lied to, but both rather
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-ai-debt-credit-big-tech-bonds-borrowing-2025-11
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle have issued around $100 billion of bonds year-to-date, according to a recent Bank of America analysis, more than double the amount the same firms raised in the bond market last year.
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16 minutes ago, B00M said:
Is this water really not recycled over and over? Please tell me it’s not being pumped out of our aquifer
It is. The businesses investors need their money back, so they must pump your aquifers. Don't be a commie, just bend over for the corporate fucking
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12 minutes ago, horn4life said:
The bad thing is we are going to get both inflation and less job creation going forward. As that is simply what tariffs do over time. Even worse... it's a problem the FED can't fix from their side of the equation.
Oh boy I've always wanted to live through the AI debt bubble popping while in a period of stagflation
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2 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:
I feel like half the "headlines" I read on social media are false once you click the link.
Get ready for that to be even worse with AI """summaries""" that make shit up
The GQP: Trumpist Death Cult
in Cloak Room
Posted
he could make it part of the bull-moose platform. Deny the holocaust? You get a face off with a bull and a moose. Good luck.