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rickyspub

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Posts posted by rickyspub

  1. 1 minute ago, satyanash said:

    Can't really use production stats to gauge individual player quality. For example, Wheeler led the team with eight tackles and a sack against WVU yet it was easily his worst ever game as a Longhorn.

    Then you can't use it as any sort of metric then. I would think knowing Wheeler accounted for 30% of the team's tackles could be useful in noting how his departure might affect us moving forward. Connelly instead knocks us some set amount of points regardless of whether he was our leading tackler or a JAG starter. Basically Wheeler hurts our 'returning starter' factor in S&P the same as it would have when Derrick Johnson left. That is a pretty brain dead factor to me.

  2. 1 minute ago, Burt Macklin said:

    Yeah. That’ll always be an issue with these pre-season model rankings. They account for quality of talent lost and quality of talent replacing with a very broad brush, because it would be close to impossible to give a specific ranking for each position on each team.

    Honestly, with the amount of data Connelly claims he is crunching to get his generic roster loss factors, he should be able spin out something a little less stupid. He has to grab all the data regardless to keep his factors up to date year on year. Either he doesn't have time to grab the data early enough to put out his click-bait pre-season rankings or his generic factors are bullshit.

  3. 55 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

    It's OU. If you color all the pages and stay mostly within the lines, you're good to go.

    Yeah, the idea that he could go to a JUCO and graduate in 10 months after spending a year in Normal isn't all that compelling. He needs to find another place that expends resources in getting him up to speed and keeping him on task. The JUCO route is a much harder row to hoe after SlO-U.

  4. 20 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    But A&M was ranked way higher than us last year, so their drop is from a higher place in the rankings. Like I said above, the systems definitely overrate SEC steams due to giving too much credit for blowing out bad teams, or more specifically by not devaluing ranking factors like play efficiency and explosiveness against terrible opponents, like the 1AA teams SEC schools schedule.

    I didn't check to see where they were last year, but I don't think they dropped as much as we did. I pretty much ignore FPI, but the S&P stuff has a whole thread devoted to it and I agree that S&P overweighs the results of games against G5 teams (and FCS games, though I am not sure if those are included in S&P). As far as returning player models go, S&P's model is completely generic and ignores context. Aggy losing Williams (who had 70% of their rushing yards and 1400+ yards more than the next RB) is treated the same as us losing Watson (who had only 40% of our total yards and less than 80 yds more than Ingram).  

  5. 8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

    ***Rant Alert***

    The first thing you need to understand is that FPI and S&P+ along with many other statistical models don't necessarily take account of what actually happened.  They take data inputs than simulate what the model says SHOULD have happened.  IOW, they value simulation over reality

    How else can one explain the utter stupidity of their rankings at the end of the 2018 season, after all the results were in?  At that point, S&P+ ranked Texas as the #35 team in the country, 21 spots behind Washington with the same record and a weaker SOS, 20 spots behind 9-4 Pedo State and 15 spots behind 7-6 S Carolina.  It's a model so grotesque that it ranked 5-7 Ole Miss one spot below 10-4 Texas.  To top it off, the same "model" rated 2017 Texas higher than 2018 Texas.  Those fools need to pull their heads out of their spreadsheets and look around at reality.

    FPI, while still moronic looks like Deep Blue compared to the dumpster fire of S&P+.  They ranked Texas as the #19 team at the end of the 2018 season.  How on earth they think the #19 team could split with their #5 team and utterly dominate their #3 team is a mystery but whatever.  One thing that computers can't do is recognize that the Texas team that destroyed Georgia in the Sugar Bowl was not at all the same team that lost to Maryland to open the season.  Humans can see that, which is why the coaches and sports writers both had Texas at #9.

    And at the same time both act like aggy won't miss a beat. Sure we may have lost more starters in terms of sheer numbers, but as HTown notes they lost substantially more in terms of sheer production, but they are somehow almost a Top 10 team and we are in the 20s or 30s.

  6. 4 minutes ago, Katfid54 said:

    Or, y'know, maybe just go with the truth, which is neither of them are aggys.

    Well Beaty coached there and Fedora went to aggy Consolidated. Considering farting in College Station is enough to earn their 'coveted' Former Student title, I think they both could claim aggy status if they really wished to.

    • Like 1
  7. 1 minute ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

    Such says Garth gave him commitment quotes three weeks ago.

    I believe it's been @Fud that's been perplexed by aggy optimism so let's see the spin on this one. Liucci has been saying Garth is the best OL in Texas. Other than Lindberg there aren't any other elite OTs in state so it'll be interesting to see what they say moving forward. 

    aggy isn't even on Lindberg's short list, right? Is there a highly-rated OL at IMG originally from Texas that Liucci can insert as his top 'Texas' OL?

  8. 1 minute ago, Machinator said:

    "Honestly, this post made me go and watch a bunch of Demas footage online. I have to say, there is absolutely NOTHING that tells me he is going to be anything more than a good receiver at the next level. He has some really good ball skills and can go up and get balls, but I don't see anything that tells me he is a transcendent player.   "

    And that is shitting on his talent? Honestly, even if he were a Julio Jones clone, there is probably only a tiny chance he would turn out to be the same transcendent player the original was.

    I'm done. I'm not even sure why I am defending some other posters' rights to have a mild, barely negative opinion on an aggy recruit. You all have turned into futureman and have decided Demas is better than Julio Jones and Jerry Rice, and saying he may not be a great player based on his highlights is obviously akin to raping sheep and paying for Hamm's Facebook abortion.

    • Like 1
  9. 21 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

    You need to separate shitting on his character vs. shitting on his talent. He's a flake and a qualification risk and a thin-skinned bitch for getting all upset about Sam taking some cracks at Aggy at a recruiting event. But the kid is a stud football player and to pretend that he's not is classic aggy head in the sand bullshit. We're better than that. 

    I am not seeing a lot of people shitting on his talent, unless you think saying he is less talented than Julio Jones or is less talented or less important than Evans is considered shitting on his talent. One guy looked at his film and didn't think he was a shoe in to be a great college player and people act like he jizzed in a jar and said, "Howdy". 

  10. 3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

    I mean they went 8-5 with a low-variance schedule that made it hard to do much worse (or better) for like 4 straight years, and this past year was the first time in like 4 or 5 years they finished in the final AP top 25. That’s pretty much evidence for our bread comments considering their classes were consistently in the top 15 year in and year out.

    sure, individual recruits may boom or bust, but talking down a guy who’s obviously extremely talented just because he’s committed to aggy or OU or whoever is dumb and should get some ridicule. 

    Low-variance schedules maybe, but at the same time we were lauding our classes, we were losing to Maryland, Kansas, Cal, Tech, and BYU. Those were all teams aggy would have beaten based on their performances over the past 5 seasons.

    I am surprised Demas has such a fan club around here. We spent half of the last cycle shitting on own commit with a lot of the same issues as Demas and Shepard was actually less of an open drama queen and bitch as Demas has already been before his own recruiting class has even officially started. I rarely call out recruits to any team as I don't have an eye for separating the wheat from the chaff, but like Garrett Wilson last cycle, Demas can rightly fuck off for all I care.

    • Like 3
  11. 5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Of course, their entire premise is stupid. There's a reason only 1 defensive player has ever won a Heisman, and that player also returned kicks and played some offense as well. It's QBs, Running Backs, and WR's in that order. But services dont rank that way at all, defensive players are the #1 recruit in the country all the time. The entire fucking notion that certain positions are more worthy of the #1 spot over others is a waste of fucking time, so I'm in no way surprised they're grasping at that straw while at the same time failing to understand that they're in no way conforming to the idea they're espousing. Of course they aren't, it's aTm. They'll bitch about Green being labeled as a guard versus a tackle because they're "less valuable" in the rankings system, but ignore the fact that an elite RB is going to impact the game more than an elite WR every day of the week. Cognitive dissonance is the most powerful force in the universe.

    I just happen to think shitting all over Demas or downplaying his talent is the kind of bullshit that their fanbase does regularly and we ridicule them for over here. And for us to do it for a player that is anything but a slam dunk to pick UT seems especially dumb and short sighted. 

    The recruiting rankings generally try to match up to the NFL draft, in which case a QB should be the #1 recruit most years. I wouldn't use the shitty Heisman as a metric for anything, but they also choose QBs the most. QBs are the #1 draft pick probably more often than all other positions combined, at least over the past 30 years. DE and OT are the only other two positions drafted #1 going back to 1996. That year was the last time a WR was picked #1 (Keyshawn). The last RB picked #1 was Ki-Jana Carter the year before, so both positions have lost value, though RB easily outdistances WRs as #1 picks in overall history of #1 picks.

    I honestly don't care if our fans want to downgrade aggy or OU or any other teams' recruits. We regularly call aggy classes mostly bread and while they play an easier schedule than we do, they have managed to avoid a losing season with all that bread. Deneric Prince is definitely less likely to ever make a play as a college player than Demas, but he could be their Donta Foreman and I could certainly see Demas flaming out like Darius White.

  12. 52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Demas is a stud. Lets not tilt toward sounding like the Aggy everyone loves to mock. 

    I like Evans because he can touch the ball 20-30 times a game, where Demas will touch it 10-12. Id also caution people to stop thinking Evans is in the calculator because his brother hates aggy trolls. This has a long way to go and I doubt we are even a heavy favorite at this point. 

    Agreed. But the aggy idea that a RB shouldn't ever be the #1 recruit and that Demas is better that him are both bullshit. As you say, an elite RB is more important than an elite WR just based on the number of touches. Perhaps Demas really is heads and shoulders above Evans, but I would think even the recruiting services could have already figured that out by now.

  13. Just now, closetojumping said:

    The thread got a little derailed, but it's really not off topic. The measurements and aspects of it matter towards projecting ability at the QB spot. Us developing a frame of reference for it got a little out of hand, if you will, but it's also a random Thursday in the offseason a week after signing day.

    Almost on topic shitposting is the proven way to 1000 pages.

  14. 3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Just so we we're clear, Rivals fucked up. That's not in question. Profiles get created in 2 manners: someone manually creates them or they are scraped. If it's a manual creation, that person needs to have their shit together and fact check things. Rivals didn't. They're morons. But 247 just running a scrape and having a new profile pop up is different. If I get on a bus or in an uber, I'm not asking the driver every time if I can see their driver's license. I just assume the guys employing them did their due diligence. It's also the same reason you don't see industry analysts calling Alabama coaches to confirm every "offer" they send out. They just listen to the kid more times than not. 

    That's fair. Unlike your car service though, you won't get a ticket if your driver gets pulled over and can't provide their license. If 247 wants to scrape and put up profiles another system puts up, then they should share in any bad press for being too lazy or tight-fisted to check the data they put on their own site. Rivals fucked up by straight getting duped. 247 fucked up by not doing due diligence on what they put on their website. You may give them a pass, but I see it as something a low-level editor could have checked with little effort. (Just like a low-level editor could actually make these recruiting 'analysts' read like they have some proficiency with the English language.)

  15. 2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    Dude, thats not how Internet or Data in general works. We scrape shit from other websites on a regular basis at my company, and the reason is because you dont have an army of analysts to verify everything and cross check by hand. In most other basic aspects of life you have to trust other people to do their jobs to a certain degree.  Should every profile at 247 get someone calling Rivals to confirm times a kid ran at a Rivals camp? Would Rivals even answer them? Your take isnt realistic. 

    It doesn't bother me that much in this case, but they could have an army (or just 10 people) who could verify things and check them in a relatively reasonable time frame. However Bobby and Shannon and whatever yahoos run Rivals don't want to take less money to hire people to generate a better product. 

  16. 5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

    As for the specifics of Demas, my counterpoint to that is that typically guys who have been bought directly don't have buyer's remorse within 2 days and have to be talked down from recommitting by Dameyune Craig, FWK, and Taylor Hamm via a conference call. Usually they're busy counting their money and buying something stupid, not having a small breakdown about having made a mistake. That usually happens till at least after the money runs out and they need an infusion of cash. 

    Your scenario is certainly plausible, but it could be they slipped him a few hundred for committing with promises of more later. Once he got home and people informed him of the value of a promise, he decided he made a mistake selling out so cheaply. Or it could be the money sounded good until they started making conditions, like no more trips to Austin or other schools, and he decided that wasn't worth the original amount. Dickerson's driving aggy's Trans-Am to Dallas tells us all we need to know about how far buyer's remorse can take you.

    • Like 1
  17.  

    5 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

    Other than outright cheating, mental retardation or aggy DNA/brainwashing, does anybody have any idea why a recruit would commit to A&M?

    Not all those who enjoy sheepfucking have aggy DNA, though I imagine all those with aggy DNA enjoy it. 

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