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UTGrad98

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by UTGrad98

  1. I will read up on how to do this tonight but can someone explain to me like Im 12 how to put in a limit order? to buy XXX shares of SPY at 206. I dont want my first limit order to fuck up and buy a million shares of CHK. Unfortunately I am considered essential personnel and dont have the option to ever work from home regardless of what type of lock down there is. Unless you nerds dont want your meds...

     

    My MM account is through vanguard

  2. 20 minutes ago, Lhorn said:
    30 minutes ago, Hate said:
    Is any of it working?

     

    My experience is only anecdotal. I’ve seen people get better on treatment and people get worse. I’d say the sample size of our hospital is too small to make any judgements , but nothing close to what I’d call impressive. That’s a bit how it goes treating severe lung infections. Improvement is often slow. Even with appropriate antibiotic treatment of typical bacterial pneumonias once you get a lot of inflammation setting in, improvement is like turning a battleship. It’s slow.

    Is it standard of care now to start all hospitalized covid19 patients on them both immediately? If so are you seeing less progression from mild / moderate to severe symptoms? I could easily see giving both meds to a patient already at a severe stage with ards and hypoxia being a coin flip at best. My honest thoughts are once you intubate with ards not much is going to work as the damage has been done and likely life long damage even if they do live.

    • Like 2
  3. 8 minutes ago, Big D said:

    How are you guys dealing with teenagers (18) or college age (20) kids having them stay home.  It’s getting brutal around my house explaining over and over that need to stay home.  It is also not helping that their friends seem to be able to go and do shit just as it used to be.  Of course, I have told them they could be carriers and get their parents or grandparents very sick.  I’m in Dallas and just curious how others here might be handling this issue with older kids.

    Sit them down and have the read the stories posted on those their age dying. If that doesnt work have them read the front line reports of how the virus kills you and what that is like...the inability to breathe, intubation, basically drowning in your own blood (find youtube videos of ARDS patients)...and that while it is low odds for them to get to that point it is much higher for you and your wife and much higher for their grandparents. If that doesnt work, offer them a grand each per month to stay at home. If they go out for even 1 night, the money is off the table.

  4. 1 hour ago, triplehorn said:

    Man, that guy would have earned an A++ with mega gold stars in Dr. Dee Silverthorn's UT undergrad physiology course.  Gawd she loved having you do those hand drawn diagrams on exams.  Some here may have had her back in the day.  Davis over in Welch for inorg chem as well.

     

    HAHA. I remember that class. She had us all stand up when she was talking about what the average person was. She first had all the women sit down, then all the minorities, then anyone who wasnt 5'9'', then anyone who wasnt 150 lbs. At the end I was the only one standing. Ill never forget that.

    • Like 1
  5. 14 minutes ago, BillyGoatHill said:

    The country (US) has had roughly 175000 tests completed with 21-22000 + positive cases reported, 257 deaths.

    While the death rate will surely climb higher, as a country right now the death rate is 1.19%. Much lower than other countries and what some doomsayers are saying for us. 

    Sorry, but trying to take a more + outlook right now.

    And this is with nursing homes in the US contributing significantly to our death toll. 

    • Like 1
  6. 1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:

    Can someone explain the rationale behind tylenol vs ibuprofen/NSAIDs?  I am not sure I have bought tylenol in 10 years because of fear of liver damage and the no-no for children.

    NSAIDS can cause an upregulation (increase) of ACE2 receptors. COVID19 binds to ACE2 receptors in the lungs. If more are available to bind to the virus, this MAY cause a more severe response. ie cytokine storm, leading to hospitalization.

    For my family we will use tylenol for any aches and fevers this time around. 

    • Like 1
  7. 53 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

    Curious why some above have said they’re waiting for 2000 to buy? Arbitrary number or anything driving that?

    Fear is everywhere. There is no analysis that makes sense given people have no idea what the long term impact is. But I believe this is temporary. And I believe very strongly that picking individual blue chip names that have lost half their value in 3 weeks will be positive over the next 12 to 36 months.

    Its a double whammy to buy. A 40% drop from the S and P high of 3383 is 2029. Also 2k is a psychological barrier. Dow 20k is one too but Im not holding my breath on that. I think it pops briefly when the dow hits 20k then keeps heading down. My only angst isnt whether to go all in at 2k....I am...Its going to be if I take potential profits thinking it will retest or fall even lower. 

    A couple more points...LOTS of people are home right now and for the foreseeable future. Trading seems like a good way to pass the time. I think 2k S/P will be a big bounce especially if it is within the next 2-5 days.

    • Like 1
  8. 20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    I do not agree with some of the language below.  Will elaborate later. 
     

     

    Conclusions of Goldman Sachs Investee call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

    50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

    70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

    Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

    The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

    Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

    Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

    There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

    China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

    Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

    S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

    There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

    In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

    Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

    There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like ‪9/11‬ than it does like 2008.

    This makes me feel better.

  9. 4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

    I’m gonna go on record and say we are going to hit all 3 circuit breakers either tomorrow or Monday, and maybe both.   We may have a week long market holiday after that.  Nothing about any of this feels right right now.  I made a pretty hairbrained post in Oil Barons thread about an idea to get our domestic economy going full bore. We shall see.   I am terrified but I will not allow myself to get discouraged right now. I can’t.  Must plow, must plow quickly. 

    that’s like an s and p of 1600 by Tuesday 

  10. 2 minutes ago, 2300 Nueces said:

    It posted this in the markets thread.  All these cancellations are going to bankrupt many businesses.  Many of these companies are maxing revolving credit lines and withdrawing the cash for bank accounts.  This is going to crash the banking system.  I would begin to prepare for bank runs and bank closures in the near future if this panic is allowed to continue.  I am almost entirely out of the system, phew.  After tomorrow, I am free.

    You mean you took out all of your money above 250k? 

    • Like 1
  11. On 12/9/2018 at 2:26 PM, UTGrad98 said:

    I dabbled with crypto in Nov and Dec 2017 and made a small profit then got out asap. Im curious to see how cryptos will fare when we actually have a recession. Im betting many of those invested now waiting for the next big run up will have to pull their money for 1 reason or another. Couple that with Tether (google how it basically propped up Bitcoin for most of 2017; it's unwinding that prop up now) and the fact that the tech can infinitely copy each other and I think we still have a ways to go before bottom. I still look at my crypto apps at least weekly if just to educate myself on what a back half of a bubble looks like. My coinbase account is open with the money I made and will probably start looking to reinvest when the world is neck deep in the next recession. Probably ETH , hopefully at around 5-10 dollars a coin. Maybe XRP if it dips below 5 cents. Just patiently waiting cash in hand right now in all markets. I got time.

    Still waiting...

    Im looking at pre 2017 boom levels before I invest some gambling money. So to me that means the same thing I posted 15 months ago... ETH at $10 Litecoin at $3, XRP at $0.005 and Bitcoin at $700. Ill get in around that time...

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