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phdhorn

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  1. If it's any consolation, rain has ended in the Upper Guadalupe Valley - looks like for a good while if not for good with this. I'll be back if not.
  2. Update: Well at least this thing has a shape - and it's a pretty common "frontal curve" line. It's moving through the immediate ATX area now. Behind it the rain is lighter and not as intense, though it's a big blob of it, but it's more moderate. Point: I think most of the worst of the rain will soon pass then light/moderate rain up through dinner. If stuff regenerates behind it and causes further potential consequences I'll be back. Otherwise I think this is the worst of the day (fingers crossed) as this frontal thing s-l-o-w-l-y creeps through our region.
  3. That was the year of the rain bomb around Marble Falls - June 27 (19"). There was significant flooding, but the only reason why it wasn't worse is that it was so close to the lake the flooded area was a relatively short distance. I think I had about 7" out of that system in W. Travis. But yeah, it also was just a rainy summer, I believe 100° temps were never achieved - or very few of them. In fact I don't think it got above 90° until July. Something like that.
  4. Of Note: As you've probably heard, today a slow-moving front (unusual for July) is teaming with Gulf moisture to form a slow-moving line of heavy rain from NW→SE. Right now northern Hill Country is getting hammered - some parts of San Saba/Lampasas Cos. have gotten over 6" of rain since midnight. This is all moving SE and unfortunately should affect the Kerr/Upper Guadalupe area later this morning/early afternoon. I don't think any floods will be huge/catastrophic (can it be anyway after last week? How much more is "catastrophic?"), but could cause evacs and issues. ATX will also get a good amount of rain out of this it looks like - easily 2" upward and more in some spots until this passes through. Very possible that main streams/creeks (Shoal? Onion?) and low-lying areas could see some flash and/or minor flooding. Be alert today. NWS has had flood watches posted since early Sat. a.m. for this, now a series of flash flood warnings for upper Hill Country, will almost certainly be extended this way (unfortunately) if rain keeps up. It could lessen by the time it hits over ATX but with all the moisture in our ground/air I don't think so. I haven't had time to look at the weather background, but this is a July reminiscent of 2007. The big summer highs have stayed away - it's possible the huge tropical situation we've had the last 2 weeks has and will impact our weather more this summer. The mid-upper air patterns aren't typical for us, but why/how long, if I look through it I might get a better idea. Like I said, although this front is "cool" (i.e. not changing temps much) it's still a front in July, so that's not usual. Two-week outlook calls for rain to stop and July to come back (hot dry) but that was supposed to happen now - and well, it's not at least this weekend, another "slight" rain forecast expanding to "heavy rain". But it happens. Meantime, heed warnings, watches.
  5. Well shoot - sort of This is the low that came in from the coast. It's not related to the disastrous one of last weekend, but it is tapping into some of its moisture making it more potent than otherwise. Fortunately most of the rain with this is falling E of 35, but there is a big pocket of heavy rain running NE up E. Blanco and W. Travis going into Williamson - right over the Cow Creek/Sandy Creek area; there's more backbuilding so it could be a minor flooding situation this afternoon. Those areas should be prepared for brief flooding. Otherwise Kerrville etc. is dry right now but rain could develop anywhere in our region before this low moves out overnight (the other one is gone as far as we're concerned). This is the most rain I've had at one point, even including the weekend here in Bee Cave where yup, it freakin' always rains. Over 2" in 45 minutes. I think my crossing will flood briefly. HARD rain coming down. All moving to the NE, the brunt will head up NW Travis as I said, towards Round Rock. Right now Travis Co. is under a flood advisory, which is one step down from a flash flood warning. So careful out there. I would expect Williamson to maybe get one later. Don't see this being a huge deal west of Austin at this time but I'll be back if so. Anyway, this crap should all be outta here this evening, tomorrow sunny, hot, mid-90's. Anything more I'll be back, but hopefully this is it today.
  6. Cool, thanks. I can work with that.
  7. Final Update: Finally, we're done here! Okay, system is still out there but weakened. This low pressure system coming in from the coast is bumping it out. Now this low has its own rain-making capabilites and therefore chances of "normal" July afternoon storms is pretty good, but coverage will be more scattered. The CTX atmosphere is still pretty humid so there's a lot of fuel, but the triggering mechanism not so intense. In other words we're almost back to normal. July will set in after Wednesday - trending sunnier and hotter - and drier. However all the tons of water fallen on our ground will probably keep 100's away for at least another week if not more. So one small plus on this otherwise awful episode is that we'll be over 1 1/2 months without a triple-digit day (I hear Aug and Sept saying, "hold my beer" but it's possible that this year could be a little different - there hasn't been a really strong high parking over us for weeks on end, even back in May with those 100's... the high moved in and out pretty quickly. (There, I just jinxed it, 100 degree days comin' up!). Epilogue - I try to post here especially when weather is critical to calm nerves and hopefully put at ease by giving perspective and "what's going on" and "what's next?". I guess I've had a talent for weather (people have told me so since I was kid), and I actually did intern at NASA for a time plotting hurricane info when I was 15. I was going to go into either astronomy or meteorology as a career, then I entered both programs in college - and promptly found out that there were no chicks (definitely not the case now as you guys frequently have posted here), and a buncha nerds which closely resembled the seating section that Pinto and Flounder were invited to sit in at the Omega House. Anyway I've always liked the sky, be it immediate (meteorology) or farther out (astronomy). If I can help calm nerves and assuage fears during weather crises I think I owe it to "whomever" to use that talent and I think that's important. Can't always be correct, but people doing this do their best. Beyond this I do here and there glance at this thread on the site; otherwise just send me a PM or one of those tag things and I'll check it out. Meanwhile I can hope that the grieving period and cleanup/rebuilding of these devastated areas - and lives - can proceed with grace and hope. Late!
  8. I don't see the "tribute" and 2 for 1 info now. has the window closed on the offer? Thx.
  9. Final Monday Update - The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend - Or "Good News" Okay, a good day and promising tomorrow. So I'll use bullets to fancy it up. Today as you've noticed has been a relatively rain free day. After the morning complex died out things settled down. That complex as it is was farther away from us, more in the San Angelo area, so the entire ATX region has had a relatively dry day. Largely because clouds have prevented a lot of sun heating/bubbling up. Still very possible for us, but nothing of overconcern. What activity there has been mostly has been east of I-35, in places that could use it. I don't think the Drought Monitor Map coming out on Thursday will be anything but sweet. Some breaks in the clouds this p.m. 'round here will still enhance the possibility of late-afternoon forming storms, but any should be short/small in scope. Tonight quiets down. Then the Enemy of My Enemy finally(!!!) starts to push this damn thing out. An inverted trough coming in from the coast has trying for the better part of 2 days to push this thing out but it just hasn't had the pop. Our system will finally weaken enough to allow itself to be bumped. So this coastal trough will come in, bump our system, and bounce to the SW like gigantic pool balls in slow motion. That should be enough to get the stuck system unstuck. But this is a low pressure trough, so tomorrow will still include the possibility of rain. But think along the lines more of coastal showers or a mild low than this thing sitting over us the past 4 days. So although it's a low (the enemy), it's gonna help get rid of our low (the enemy) and be our friend. I do think Tuesday will be a lot like today - much less rain cover, although chances for a small but intense shower is there. Then Wed. will be almost July-llike - much more sun and temps going up, drier. I think I'll be back tomorrow one last time, at least it looks good for that. Not tonight unless something really surprisingly goes awry. Late.
  10. Update: Same old song. Not a lot of change. We've already seen the NW counties from ATX running with some spotty heavy rain. Already flash flood warnings in Llano, Burnet, and a few other counties N. of Williamson. Although the system has definitely weakened a little, there is so much oversaturated air at both low and mid atmospheric levels (tropical characteristic) that rain can pile up again. Right now most of the rain is concentrated NE of Austin with a few lines N/NW all heading N. Our immediate counties as well as Kerr are so far more or less dry. Only two things really for today: 1) Rain will continue and there's as always with this the potential of pinpoint heavy rain, though I don't think to the degree and coverage of the weekend. Here's a key portion of NWS's latest discussion, though this is now about 8 hrs. old; I'd expect the new one to be pretty much the same: The favored areas continue to be the I-35 corridor into the Hill Country with a slight spread toward the Edwards Plateau later in the morning. Forecast storm motion vectors have sped up a little compared to recent days. This may somewhat lessen rainfall amounts. However, locally heavy rains of 2 to 4 inches are expected with up to 10 inches still possible. These rainfall amounts may cause flash and possibly renewed river flooding in the watch area. It must be noted that models vary considerably on where the heaviest rains will occur within the watch area. The showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of heating Monday evening. 2) No one can predict narrowly where the big rains will hit. Just can't do it, it's currently not possible with the technology. One reason is that the storm doesn't even know until the combos of convection, movement, heat/cold ratios, and a lot of other stuff happen at that time. So the best advice is to just use caution when being near natural running water today as usual. This storm has defied several predictions of moving out now. It's simply cut off from any steering (and I can tell you that many times in the past here I've posted to always be careful of cutoff lows, especially those coming up from the SW. They can be disaster makers. Yes a lot of Barry's moisture came in from the SE, but it also pulled in huge moisture and convection from Flossie, a Pacific storm that flowed in from the SW. Otherwise, Austin should be business as usual today - mostly cloudy with periods of rain, some possibly heavy. Remote possibility of flooding rains, but more likely N and W of the city. Again, watch for diurnal heating to cause more widespread rain (mostly moderate with heavy pockets) towards mid-late afternoon. I keep saying I'll try to be back with a "final" post of this episode, but it keeps hanging around. So until it doesn't and if need be, I'll try to post. If I ever do get to a "final" post on this episode, I'll pass along a few personal comments on all this plus some tips or advice that hopefully will help some to know when to pay attention, and to what weather developments with these types of lows, in the future.
  11. Yep this is new... TS's were dumping rain west of NB today and along with the heightened flow of the Guadalupe a Flash Flood warning was issued at 7:30 tonight. Take care down there, stay away from the river. I don't see any other warnings anywhere in our region at this time.
  12. Final(?) Sunday update: (unless things get bad, which I really doubt at this point tonight) Well, the dry air held off enough (and protected most of Austin and S along the 35 corridor) but in the end the daytime heating allowed the storms to creep back in from the N and W. And two of the most concentrated blobs hit in the 2 worst places - Kerr County and NW Travis and up through Willie and Llano/San Saba. The center of this system has ambled SW this afternoon to the Llano County area. Not a great dry out day but at least it's clear that the system has lost some broad pop. However, the system is clearly evaporating out in the Kerr area and more slowly so in our area. I'd expect things to quiet down the rest of today. Today's rains did have points of heavy rates; however, they were less broad and intense than the past 2 days. Saturated ground has allowed for some brief flash flooding but streams should recover within a few hours. There is only one active flash flood warning - unfortunately the western part of Kerr County. However I'd expect that to pass soon with the diminishing rain if it hasn't yet already. Overnight should be mostly quiet if we get to midnight. How much rain starts bubbling up post-midnight with this tropical situation is anyone's guess, but most NWS models show a decrease for Monday, and for the system to be much less oppressive. Nevertheless I'll post something tomorrow a.m. because I can't take that for granted. FWIW I'll also post a few off-the-cuff reactions to this whole thing. Hopefully the weather will normalize now... still a decent chance of afternoon showers/storms this week, mostly due to high humidity and prevailing winds coming from the SE by Monday evening, and this system's influence on this region will finally end. See you tomorrow (unless situation warrants something tonight, I doubt it).
  13. Update: The dry air is generally holding the stuff back around us, but unfortunately there is one big squall line that's developed in the worst place - namely just NW of Kerrville moving into it. On any other day this would be a nice refershing rain, but obviously the last thing they need there right now. I doubt the river will reach anything like the apocalyptic stage of the other day, but at least minor flooding wouldn't be a surprise. Ugh. For ATX and the rest of us, looks like there'll be at least 1-2 brief showers moving SW→NE through W/NW ATX and into Williamson. These should drop maybe upwards of an inch - but again on saturated ground. Any flooding from these hopefully would be brief and minor. Again this would be a "normal" nice rainy day, but of course we're way past normal right now. Anyway hang on, should be in and out. What the later afternoon/evening has I'll keep on, my guess is that things will die down toward the 5-6 p.m. hours. More to come.
  14. Update: Interesting battle going on right now... some drier air is trying to work NW from our SE counties, and the disturbance is hanging out to our NW. The rain area is mostly north of Williamson into North Central Texas and trying hard to expand S and SE - where the dry air is at least for now dissipating much of it. As this battle goes, so will go our flooding this afternoon... if the rains can come in from the N/NW then it's a concern. If the air over ATX can keep putting it out, drier with maybe scattered lighter showers. RIght now it's a tossup but the defense is holding.
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