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Everything posted by phdhorn
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Well shoot - sort of This is the low that came in from the coast. It's not related to the disastrous one of last weekend, but it is tapping into some of its moisture making it more potent than otherwise. Fortunately most of the rain with this is falling E of 35, but there is a big pocket of heavy rain running NE up E. Blanco and W. Travis going into Williamson - right over the Cow Creek/Sandy Creek area; there's more backbuilding so it could be a minor flooding situation this afternoon. Those areas should be prepared for brief flooding. Otherwise Kerrville etc. is dry right now but rain could develop anywhere in our region before this low moves out overnight (the other one is gone as far as we're concerned). This is the most rain I've had at one point, even including the weekend here in Bee Cave where yup, it freakin' always rains. Over 2" in 45 minutes. I think my crossing will flood briefly. HARD rain coming down. All moving to the NE, the brunt will head up NW Travis as I said, towards Round Rock. Right now Travis Co. is under a flood advisory, which is one step down from a flash flood warning. So careful out there. I would expect Williamson to maybe get one later. Don't see this being a huge deal west of Austin at this time but I'll be back if so. Anyway, this crap should all be outta here this evening, tomorrow sunny, hot, mid-90's. Anything more I'll be back, but hopefully this is it today.
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Cool, thanks. I can work with that.
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Final Update: Finally, we're done here! Okay, system is still out there but weakened. This low pressure system coming in from the coast is bumping it out. Now this low has its own rain-making capabilites and therefore chances of "normal" July afternoon storms is pretty good, but coverage will be more scattered. The CTX atmosphere is still pretty humid so there's a lot of fuel, but the triggering mechanism not so intense. In other words we're almost back to normal. July will set in after Wednesday - trending sunnier and hotter - and drier. However all the tons of water fallen on our ground will probably keep 100's away for at least another week if not more. So one small plus on this otherwise awful episode is that we'll be over 1 1/2 months without a triple-digit day (I hear Aug and Sept saying, "hold my beer" but it's possible that this year could be a little different - there hasn't been a really strong high parking over us for weeks on end, even back in May with those 100's... the high moved in and out pretty quickly. (There, I just jinxed it, 100 degree days comin' up!). Epilogue - I try to post here especially when weather is critical to calm nerves and hopefully put at ease by giving perspective and "what's going on" and "what's next?". I guess I've had a talent for weather (people have told me so since I was kid), and I actually did intern at NASA for a time plotting hurricane info when I was 15. I was going to go into either astronomy or meteorology as a career, then I entered both programs in college - and promptly found out that there were no chicks (definitely not the case now as you guys frequently have posted here), and a buncha nerds which closely resembled the seating section that Pinto and Flounder were invited to sit in at the Omega House. Anyway I've always liked the sky, be it immediate (meteorology) or farther out (astronomy). If I can help calm nerves and assuage fears during weather crises I think I owe it to "whomever" to use that talent and I think that's important. Can't always be correct, but people doing this do their best. Beyond this I do here and there glance at this thread on the site; otherwise just send me a PM or one of those tag things and I'll check it out. Meanwhile I can hope that the grieving period and cleanup/rebuilding of these devastated areas - and lives - can proceed with grace and hope. Late!
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I don't see the "tribute" and 2 for 1 info now. has the window closed on the offer? Thx.
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Final Monday Update - The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend - Or "Good News" Okay, a good day and promising tomorrow. So I'll use bullets to fancy it up. Today as you've noticed has been a relatively rain free day. After the morning complex died out things settled down. That complex as it is was farther away from us, more in the San Angelo area, so the entire ATX region has had a relatively dry day. Largely because clouds have prevented a lot of sun heating/bubbling up. Still very possible for us, but nothing of overconcern. What activity there has been mostly has been east of I-35, in places that could use it. I don't think the Drought Monitor Map coming out on Thursday will be anything but sweet. Some breaks in the clouds this p.m. 'round here will still enhance the possibility of late-afternoon forming storms, but any should be short/small in scope. Tonight quiets down. Then the Enemy of My Enemy finally(!!!) starts to push this damn thing out. An inverted trough coming in from the coast has trying for the better part of 2 days to push this thing out but it just hasn't had the pop. Our system will finally weaken enough to allow itself to be bumped. So this coastal trough will come in, bump our system, and bounce to the SW like gigantic pool balls in slow motion. That should be enough to get the stuck system unstuck. But this is a low pressure trough, so tomorrow will still include the possibility of rain. But think along the lines more of coastal showers or a mild low than this thing sitting over us the past 4 days. So although it's a low (the enemy), it's gonna help get rid of our low (the enemy) and be our friend. I do think Tuesday will be a lot like today - much less rain cover, although chances for a small but intense shower is there. Then Wed. will be almost July-llike - much more sun and temps going up, drier. I think I'll be back tomorrow one last time, at least it looks good for that. Not tonight unless something really surprisingly goes awry. Late.
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Update: Same old song. Not a lot of change. We've already seen the NW counties from ATX running with some spotty heavy rain. Already flash flood warnings in Llano, Burnet, and a few other counties N. of Williamson. Although the system has definitely weakened a little, there is so much oversaturated air at both low and mid atmospheric levels (tropical characteristic) that rain can pile up again. Right now most of the rain is concentrated NE of Austin with a few lines N/NW all heading N. Our immediate counties as well as Kerr are so far more or less dry. Only two things really for today: 1) Rain will continue and there's as always with this the potential of pinpoint heavy rain, though I don't think to the degree and coverage of the weekend. Here's a key portion of NWS's latest discussion, though this is now about 8 hrs. old; I'd expect the new one to be pretty much the same: The favored areas continue to be the I-35 corridor into the Hill Country with a slight spread toward the Edwards Plateau later in the morning. Forecast storm motion vectors have sped up a little compared to recent days. This may somewhat lessen rainfall amounts. However, locally heavy rains of 2 to 4 inches are expected with up to 10 inches still possible. These rainfall amounts may cause flash and possibly renewed river flooding in the watch area. It must be noted that models vary considerably on where the heaviest rains will occur within the watch area. The showers and thunderstorms will dissipate with loss of heating Monday evening. 2) No one can predict narrowly where the big rains will hit. Just can't do it, it's currently not possible with the technology. One reason is that the storm doesn't even know until the combos of convection, movement, heat/cold ratios, and a lot of other stuff happen at that time. So the best advice is to just use caution when being near natural running water today as usual. This storm has defied several predictions of moving out now. It's simply cut off from any steering (and I can tell you that many times in the past here I've posted to always be careful of cutoff lows, especially those coming up from the SW. They can be disaster makers. Yes a lot of Barry's moisture came in from the SE, but it also pulled in huge moisture and convection from Flossie, a Pacific storm that flowed in from the SW. Otherwise, Austin should be business as usual today - mostly cloudy with periods of rain, some possibly heavy. Remote possibility of flooding rains, but more likely N and W of the city. Again, watch for diurnal heating to cause more widespread rain (mostly moderate with heavy pockets) towards mid-late afternoon. I keep saying I'll try to be back with a "final" post of this episode, but it keeps hanging around. So until it doesn't and if need be, I'll try to post. If I ever do get to a "final" post on this episode, I'll pass along a few personal comments on all this plus some tips or advice that hopefully will help some to know when to pay attention, and to what weather developments with these types of lows, in the future.
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Yep this is new... TS's were dumping rain west of NB today and along with the heightened flow of the Guadalupe a Flash Flood warning was issued at 7:30 tonight. Take care down there, stay away from the river. I don't see any other warnings anywhere in our region at this time.
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No.
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Final(?) Sunday update: (unless things get bad, which I really doubt at this point tonight) Well, the dry air held off enough (and protected most of Austin and S along the 35 corridor) but in the end the daytime heating allowed the storms to creep back in from the N and W. And two of the most concentrated blobs hit in the 2 worst places - Kerr County and NW Travis and up through Willie and Llano/San Saba. The center of this system has ambled SW this afternoon to the Llano County area. Not a great dry out day but at least it's clear that the system has lost some broad pop. However, the system is clearly evaporating out in the Kerr area and more slowly so in our area. I'd expect things to quiet down the rest of today. Today's rains did have points of heavy rates; however, they were less broad and intense than the past 2 days. Saturated ground has allowed for some brief flash flooding but streams should recover within a few hours. There is only one active flash flood warning - unfortunately the western part of Kerr County. However I'd expect that to pass soon with the diminishing rain if it hasn't yet already. Overnight should be mostly quiet if we get to midnight. How much rain starts bubbling up post-midnight with this tropical situation is anyone's guess, but most NWS models show a decrease for Monday, and for the system to be much less oppressive. Nevertheless I'll post something tomorrow a.m. because I can't take that for granted. FWIW I'll also post a few off-the-cuff reactions to this whole thing. Hopefully the weather will normalize now... still a decent chance of afternoon showers/storms this week, mostly due to high humidity and prevailing winds coming from the SE by Monday evening, and this system's influence on this region will finally end. See you tomorrow (unless situation warrants something tonight, I doubt it).
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Update: The dry air is generally holding the stuff back around us, but unfortunately there is one big squall line that's developed in the worst place - namely just NW of Kerrville moving into it. On any other day this would be a nice refershing rain, but obviously the last thing they need there right now. I doubt the river will reach anything like the apocalyptic stage of the other day, but at least minor flooding wouldn't be a surprise. Ugh. For ATX and the rest of us, looks like there'll be at least 1-2 brief showers moving SW→NE through W/NW ATX and into Williamson. These should drop maybe upwards of an inch - but again on saturated ground. Any flooding from these hopefully would be brief and minor. Again this would be a "normal" nice rainy day, but of course we're way past normal right now. Anyway hang on, should be in and out. What the later afternoon/evening has I'll keep on, my guess is that things will die down toward the 5-6 p.m. hours. More to come.
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Update: Interesting battle going on right now... some drier air is trying to work NW from our SE counties, and the disturbance is hanging out to our NW. The rain area is mostly north of Williamson into North Central Texas and trying hard to expand S and SE - where the dry air is at least for now dissipating much of it. As this battle goes, so will go our flooding this afternoon... if the rains can come in from the N/NW then it's a concern. If the air over ATX can keep putting it out, drier with maybe scattered lighter showers. RIght now it's a tossup but the defense is holding.
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That's one. The most commonly occurring way is a rotating supercell which can spawn tornadoes or other nasties.
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If I'm reading my radar right, the center of this storm has moved a good deal W to just north of Llano. So the brunt of the rain right now is actually pretty far north (Kileen, Waco, Stephenville, into SW Dallas) - the western component that flooded Mason Co. this a.m. is actually diminishing. So for the first 1/2 of the day, the worst of it seem to be north of the worst areas the past 48 hrs. I don't think anything will happen around here this a.m. Probably start looking after lunch to see what the sun fires up in our area. Impossible to know where it'll bubble up though. So if it's gonna rain in our area, probably later today.
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Oh, *MCV is a meso convective vortex - just another name for a type of low that has a strong circulation which is prone to more intense weather (rain amounts in this case).
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Sunday update: Not much to write this a.m. Situation is still somewhat similar, though with all the rain the atmosphere became more stable and so rain development this early a.m. not as extensive. Mason County has a flash flood warning because the deluge chose that spot early this morning, but the rain was limited in area. Today flood threats remain, hence the flood watches remain in effect throughout Sunday. I think that with diurnal heating today it'll be a more "normal" rain day, i.e. showers/storms building in the afternoon into a complex of scattered thunderstorms. NWS however is saying that some of their models are calling for early A.M. Monday downpours mostly in the Hill Country, aggravating the flooding situation. However, like early morning today, they didn't form in very many places, so I'd expect a limited formation early tomorrow morning as well. While this situation isn't completely over, it's decreasing and I don't expect any major re-igniting of it. Nevertheless with this stubborn MCV* in place, nothing is normal with this thing. Looking into Monday and Tuesday, the system will be pushed west, possibly far enough to be cut off from the moisture feeding it (into dry W. Texas air) and dissipate or get kicked up and out of Texas finally. Too early to know. A ridge of high pressure will be coming up from the coast starting early tomorrow. But although these highs are drier and hotter, the immense amount of moisture in the ground now will result in more of a typical "coastal showers" pattern for a few days; that is, still humid while warming up into the mid-90's through the week. Probably something like 30% mostly for the next few afternoons. Until this area takes a breather and the ground fully absorbs the large amounts of rainfall, flooding will be in the picture. I'd say if development is as expected, we'll finally be more or less "normal" (hot, but still humid for now July days). I guess if there's any upside to this, and comparatively it's not much, it's that we won't see 100° temps for at east most of this week, making some 45 days or so since we had one. Yeah, I know, big deal considering the past few days, but I guess it's something - plus now I've jinxed it, probably be 104° every day from late July through mid-Sept. Hope not. Anyway the very wet ground around here will help keep afternoon highs down for a week or so because of all the moisture, plus the plants are pumping out O2, which cools a bit. I'll be back later today if situation gets bad somewhere, and later maybe early evening to do a narrative forecast for Monday before wrapping up this episode. Have a good Sunday, stay tuned for weather, and still be cautious near lakes or streams which are still not completely out of the woods, but a lot better than the past 48 hours.
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Day's Final Update: - Convection/rainfall has greatly diminished this evening as hoped & mentioned in my previous post. Latest NWS guidance keeps open the possibility of scattered heavy rain just like last night, although factors aren't as strong. This means hopefully spottier rains. But I expect it to pick up in the post-midnight hours as influx of warm, moist air re-feeds the column of saturated mid-level core. - However, the system hasn't moved much, in fact seems to have wobbled a bit SW to just west of Round Rock. Unfortunately the trough I hoped would pull it up is just too weak in this part of the country to drag it out - there's just nothing to influence moving it away right now. So what's going to happen is default - a high pressure ridge to our east is going to slowly work its way in from the Mississippi Valley region and nudge the system back westward. It's weakened somewhat but by no means isn't still strong enough for another round of flooding rain - but not to the destructive degree before. - However, this means again more heavy rain for some part of the Hill Country - were exactly is impossible to predict (models are suggesting the more northern quadrant again)- possible early a.m. tomorrow. Flood watches are now well into Sunday afternoon/early evening. I think ATX will escape the worst, lying just to the east of the core (again!) - our flood risk is a 1, vs. 2 or 3 west of Travis/Williamson. This is still a potentially dangerous situation west of 281 for tomorrow. Unfortunately, this thing is going to die a slow, gradual death, not finally GTFO. But again, the hopeful prediction here is less than the last 2 rain bombs. Sunday will see this system move over the Hill Country and hopefully a little weaker. It'll either finally meander SW and die out or kick up towards the panhandle, then out. But that's for tomorrow, hopefully I can get a handle on how this thing is gonna end once and for all. Finally, I know adults are among the deceased and I grieve for them as well, I just want to leave this in memory of those lovely little gals who've perished in this disaster. We remember you. (This was my daughter's favorite stuffed animal when she was at that age.)
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Unfortunately, it's tropical and that means a relatively consistent layer of warm air and ground at mid levels. As this air rises it cools and doesn't need the Sun as much. I think they'll definitely be a break after sunset but it could ramp up again early in the morning as the top levels inhale enough warm air to settle down, then cool off, stimulating more lower level convection (rising up into the colled air) and storms. The thing that sucks with these kinds of storms is they're also is helped by daytime heating, although not is violently say as thunderstorm complex with a dry line or something.
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Update: 3 p.m. NWS bulletin didn't really have much different.. lots of rain, system not going anywhere significant, hopefully some downshifting with nighttime (although these things can ramp up overnight, one hopes the atmosphere gets some stability and quits for awhile). My hope is that the system will meander slowly to the E, following a track it's already been taking. Today was Austin's day to get the brunt, so hopefully it'll move east of us tonight, as I've posted today. The rains today were decent but definitely more light/moderate than prolonged heavy (and at least there's been movement of the storms and not all that much training, they've been circulating in frontal (i.e. perpendicular to their movement) direction). Tomorrow's forecast is interesting, I'll post iater tonight (not terrible but not particularly the usual). Just want to get more confirmation about it. Anything on your mind hit me up here.
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Thanks are appreciated. This is what I got right now: The center of this thing is actually just E of Round Rock. However it hasn't moved much. The "bisecting axis" (1/2 dividing line between "frontside" and "backside" of the storm) is pretty much just NW of downtown. This thing needs to move a bit E, S, or N to get us out of the "regeneration" zone. Hopefully it will. There is also a long trough running NE from us up through the eastern Great Lakes; sometimes these storms get pulled a bit into those (although that trough is one reason why Barry's remnants have been firing up so much). Rains are moderate/heavy in some areas but not the nutso rates we've seen up through early morning. I hope the drier soils of ATX and east can help soak this up. Nevertheless flooding on Williamson/Shoal/Onion is a real possibility. Best hope is just that this thing gets nudged outta here next few hours by that trough. Rain still in picture through Monday, and actually another chance of some rain midweek with something moving in from the NNW, not the same degree as this but obviously we don't need anything more for awhile. Keep close to phones/avoid streets with low bridges or parallels to creeks if you can. Hopefully this will be by (at least this potent) dinnertime or after. NWS latest report should be coming out soon, I'll post if anything new. Finally, we can't predict this, although we can predict the remote chance of it - I've never seen such a large area in CTX 10+" since I've lived here:
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I'm heartbroken by this event, like many here not one of us 4 in my family doesn't know someone at most 2 Kevin Bacon steps from ourselves who is dealing with loss of human life. So much I could post, including why this storm was so bad - we get lots of Mexican landfall tropical systems that come in early hurricane season and don't. I'll pick that up maybe in a few days if interest. Not definitive answers but good estimates. Mainly I wanted to give a few words on today for ATX and immediate areas: This storm's center is almost on top of us, moving very slowly ENE. It's been bubbling today, that is the early a.m. concentration was up in San Saba/Burnet areas, and now seems to have formed another "barbell end" S/SE of ATX east of San Antonio in the Lower Guadalupe/Blanco area. Watch there in particular the next few hours and take care. However, there are some training storms N to S in W. Travis/Hays. Right now they're not too sated and are moving; however in some spots they're in a long line and could strengthen and douse a given area. It's next to impossible to know exactly where the "reds" will boil up and move. So stay near home or off roads where running water comes into play. Barry's remnants have lost a little punch in the last few hours, but there's always the danger of a "bomb spot" especially as diurnal heating takes place today over the system. Fortunately they ground around us is cooler from the past days' rains and might help reduce the intensity. This storm will slowly slide east of the 35 corridor by sunset or so, and being on the "backside" of it, will definitely decrease the totals. Tomorrow can see more rain but not what we've seen, even in Austin. By Monday this should be reduced to spotty light/medium showers widely scattered. Any questions etc. I'll try to check in. My heart and prayers go out for the grief that you can just feel over this region today. Godspeed to loved ones dealing with this.
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Could be a bumpy ride today, NWS has us at a Level 3 (enhanced) risk for severe weather, not all that common even for us in the spring. Most likely concern will be large hail and winds (tornadoes maybe just a quick bit at first, but as the cells merge they'll form a line which knocks out most tornadic development. Could be a ROFLBOX bonanza as I think there is a pretty good chance of 3-4 areas of damaging hail at a given point in the region. Storms might move slow, which wouldn't help (but usually storms with big winds move fast, we'll see). Keep in mind that even with severe weather, it usually affects a relatively small portion of the area, so we're all not gonna die today (probably, maybe, well I dunno). Big Boom storms will form/go by mid afternoon to maybe dinnertime, then (hopefully) "just" moderate, even rain over most of the area. Keep an eye on your favorite weather honk after lunch, and have a plan to get your car outta harm's way. I'll come back and post if we have van-sized hailstones or something like that (something worth posting about). I'll keep peeking at the radar after lunch but these things as you know can flare up outta nothing.
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Did anyone else hear that explosion just now in North Austin?
phdhorn replied to hornbri's topic in Daily Texan
Yes, I should have known (SIAP blah blah). All I can say is if it's posted here before this (haven't checked) it did come from the source I said - probably got out there anyway (the internet (like Surlians) these days it's all over the place (Norm McDonald). Anyway, I got it through texts of friends who know the homeowner. If it's a member here, sorry if you got any serious damage, hope all is well. -
Did anyone else hear that explosion just now in North Austin?
phdhorn replied to hornbri's topic in Daily Texan
Oh hai again. Wife's friend's friend who lives(ed?) across the street. Thread got winned with this. 0cb90501-5e90-4c90-9339-402d974d5b91.mp4 -
Winter Weather 2025 - Arctic Blasts or Sweaty Ass?
phdhorn replied to NorthLoop's topic in Daily Texan
Either that or the next time it's not 74° and sunny.
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