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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Homestead, next door. Learned last night that Austin Energy issued an apology to us over the news, neighbor captured screenshot but I haven't seen it yet. I guess that's a start!
  2. Thanks. You can sign up with a Learn To Read program - for free! - in Austin if you need help. But I understand.
  3. One more time. Precip over for CenTex, as expected not a big deal. Weather services did really good on this event, which is not easy. Travel E of U.S. 77 today dicey - because icy. Take care. Finally, a little "glad I'm not that guy" satisfaction by relative position comment. Yesterday Austin had about 174 customers without power max in the day. 171 of them were my neighborhood. Power went out about 9:45 a.m. Sunday. After the usual AE claptrap on their outage site, and a seeming update (2 hours est. restore, which was goalpost-moved about 6 times), they extended the estimated fix out to midnight (from about noon when they gave us that one). Missus and i said skrew that, we hopped on over to a nice hotel in Lakeway for the evening - good decision. Then we read a cryptic share posted by our Bee Cave Mayor (Bee Cave has one and it's not (quite) Gomer Pyle or Helen Crump). She was sharing blamespeak by AE, stuff like "when the developer put this in he did blah blah.." and tech speak like "we need to have a loop return to allow multiple access to the location" - sounded more like a sex ed talk on fertilization than electric stuff. But what got us was this part: "We have yet to determine the actual location of the break (although somehow they seemed to know enough to blame it on "someone digging" - yet no name, location, or purpose given. Ni-i-i-ce deflection). So "after 4 hours we have no idea what happened or where to try and find the problem." Beautiful. The days before, I spent some time prepping the well as usual with space heater and a few lights, always works. But now there was no power to it - would it be pointless? That was about my only worry, the rest I said we'd deal with if/when. But we were not gonna sit in a cold house staring at dying phones. Eventually they gave "good news" on the outage app - our power would return by 7:30 p.m. Sure enough, neighbors reported power at about that time - followed by a flickering over the next hour - followed by power going out - again. Oops. No problem, you guys are pros. Apparently acc. to neighbor texts, power finally restored w/o flickering 1:30 a.m. We returned home from a great relaxing stay by about 10:30 this a.m. House warm water flowing(!) except for final stop (bathroom faucets). I opened cabinets and expect it to thaw, keeping an eye out for problems. But we have water! 3 ice/major cold event, 3 power fails. Neighborhood is pissed. We're going to go to the mayor with pitchforks and tell her to get someone from AE out here to do a damn assessment of the infrastructure. If the neighborhood wiring is akin to the Douglas phone-on-the-pole on Green Acres, then we want to know so we can outlay to fix it. "The way it was done 50 years ago" is complete bullshit. AE ran a Usain Bolt dash out here in the 70's to claim electric here with Pedernales in the area. So now, you bastiges fix it. Yeah, like that'll happen. The '21 storm I can sort of understand (though we found out our outage was due to a transformer blow and power would have remained on otherwise). The '23 Ice Dump - again a piece of infrastructure went kerplunk and we were without for 24+ hours. This one? Proud to say that in the vast, great expanse of the Greater Austin Metroplex, one neighborhood - one tiny, lil' group of settlements - mine - was out - the ONLY group outage all day. We're gonna do some stuff and stuff to get some answers. Not cool. Most of the time, the fear and paranoia preceding one of these events is regrettable if not funny (though after '21 peoples' anxieties can certainly be more understood). But apparently in our enclave, if you get below 30°, those scenarios are real. This isn't a destitute area and we want answers - the authorities say they'll give them to us after this - but of course we'll see. But if it's time to upgrade something, then DO IT. I do have a 15K big honking generator that will easily power the entire house if needed. So why didn't I set it up? Good question but long answer. However next time I'll probably drag the SOB out and get it ready if needed. With this event, even with our recent history, I couldn't conceive of losing power - ERCOT had a lot, there was NO precip (at least power-killing kind) in this forecast, zip. I thought no problem. Wrong [Trump meme]. Half-confidently expect power to hold, if not we'll motor it to the hotel for another night. So much better. So yeah, you weren't "that guy." See ya at the next weather disaster - whether real or overblown. Stay cool.
  4. Someone tapped me from the grave to see if I was alive c/o this thingy whatever. Looks like y'all got the typical things covered: panic buying (seen plenty of that myself the last 36 hours) are we going to die, 10 ton chunks of ice falling overnight Sun/Mon, -450 in the sun, the grid, Old faithful sized pipe bursts, drip vs non drip, people at the stores are assholes, Noadic flooding, 500 day supply of chili, etc. Me: going to get really cold, then it won't. Brief cold event, zero or very spotty ice event, always spotty issues with power or burst pipes, don't see any statewide power problems, mostly sporadic local, yes take it seriously but for the most part just a few vrry cold days, fortunately almost no precip to speak of with it. Shouldn't stand out from many we've had before. That's all I got. I'll look in here later tonight. Otherwise, good luck, we're not counting on you.
  5. Oopsch! <Hic!> https://www.ftvlive.com/sqsp-test/2023/7/17/cops-camp-the-cuffs-on-longtime-austin-anchor?format=amp
  6. Hi. Big rains 12a-6p overnight, everybody gets a lot of wet; this one's not shaping up to be the usual nothingburger. Rain will be pretty heavy especially toward daybreak. Spotty flooding, especially along the usual suspect creeks for sure. Not widespread severe event per se but definitely can be spots of hail/high winds. This is more tropical drenching type rain. Ebbs down most of the day Saturday, spotty showers though. Still a rainy day. Sunday 12-6 same thing, not as intense but flooding here with there a possibility. Slacks off the rest of Sunday and repeat Monday, again less intense than Saturday. With this type of setup it it's really hard to gauge the depth of intense rain but the setup is primed more than most of the last yearor so. I'm leaning less apocalypse but this will be heavy rain two or three hours overnight for pretty much everyone. If it's bad enough to wake me overnight owl possibly post. May (wettest month) gonna May.
  7. Looks like the worst is over for me, the rest of you probably will get a lot of wind and rain but you should live through it...probably, maybe. Have a nice day.
  8. For all of this bluster, only one little hail core in the entire Travis county area and it went right over my house and is moving into Southwest and South austin. But it's small hail.
  9. Rain is much harder than I anticipated but it's moving so fast it won't flood.
  10. The little cell passing over me right now has small hail, nothing damaging, 50 to 60 mph winds and it's moving right toward oak Hill and South austin. Don't think it'll be real bad but could knock a few things around.
  11. I'm getting nailed easily with 50 mph winds, hard rain but brief.
  12. Not sure I've ever seen this before...
  13. Tornado warning for Georgetown and north of Round Rock, potential tornado.
  14. All Austin metro about to get severe thunderstorm warning, pea-size jail and 70 mph winds in many spots. Going to be a fun 20 minutes.
  15. Pretty nasty cell near the bottom of the line going through Gillespie right now. Looks like some hail and strong winds. Just fyi, still has a lot of ground to cover before it gets here. Most of it will skirt north of metro. The northern Travis and Georgetown keep an eye out.
  16. Just wanted to duck in to say that if you're getting alerts in Spanish, you shouldn't worry unless you're Hispanic. Those storms never hit English-speaking peoples' houses. Don't get me started... Anyway, I won't be back (?).. hopefully.
  17. Most of the worst will be north of us, if just north. Gonna be a good spread of tornadoes in NE TX into SEC country tonight. Not pretty. For ATX, wouldn't surprise me if a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is issued, but the models have kept the Big Red Target NE of us up to now, so that's not changing. Biggest worry is straight line winds over a 5-6 mile spot somewhere, and hail in very scattered pockets. I ain't really worried about it at this point, luckiest guess is some poor spot around ATX will get some quarter sized hail and wind damage. But pinpoint. That's what I see right now. Line has formed but southern end is ebbing and flowing, north half is pretty nasty, around Waco to Metroplex... we'll see what happens as it hits warm air somewhere around us. We'll know by about 6:30 what we're in for if anything... bulk of it should hit about 7-8 in ATX. I won't be back unless bad things start to happen 'round here.
  18. Wanted to give notice of this in case you missed it. Almanza was a two-time Olympian for Mexico and leading scorer and rebounder for UT during his tenure. Quite a guy. His kids are in their 50's and his son is a pretty successful lawyer in town. My wife went to Austin High with his daughter, suffice it to say it was a long and painful decline and finally he's out of pain. Just thought some of you might want to read up on a UT basketball Legacy. He lived in the Barton hills area and his funeral was this morning. https://www.statesman.com/story/sports/college/longhorns/mens-basketball/2023/01/30/albert-almanza-former-texas-longhorns-basketball-player-olympian-dies/69851330007/
  19. Power back on after 6 hours. Not too bad. This one's about over. It was a mothafugga, though, if you're a tree. Otherwise besides a power burp, it could've been worse. See ya around the bend.
  20. Power did the on/off/on flicker twice today but now the third time it's stayed off (20 mins. now) although it did try to go on. Probably won't post much here until it comes back on, if it ever does. Will check occasionally on the phone. Have a lovely day.
  21. Update: This last string of precip is now moving through the ATX metro area and environs. There is a bit of dry air seeping into it from the SW, so it's kind of getting chewed up. Doesn't mean there won't be an extra layer or two of ice forming, but hopefully it's being mitigated a bit - the line has narrowed W→E a good bit. Then we got a decent break (although more stuff could form up south of us, but so far no) until dinnertime or so. I'm still hoping that temps will climb into the 33+° range by "sunset" (whatever that is!). Temps are not going to go down now the next 12-24 hours - just up, so I'm squeezing hard rooting for that. Back later, I'd imagine.
  22. Pretty good explanation here. It could vary almost house to house, too. Not an easy call. I prefer no more rain period, or at least temps get warm enough to start melting the ice and making it soft. Then the rain could wash it right off.
  23. Not an easy answer, and temps are part of it, so the answer is... If the temps are at or near freezing, and the rain is heavy, and the air aloft is warm (like our situation today), it can actually bring warm air down with it and melt the ice, because both the air and rain > 32°. If you've ever poured faucet water into a cup of ice and it melts, you get the idea. However, if temps are lower and/or rain is not as heavy, it can be worse and add. If it's pouring out, it doesn't necessarily mean more ice accumulation... only so much water can layer up in a given instant, the rest will run off to the ground. But I don't think heavy rain is a good thing right now. And it won't be - until in many areas tomorrow morning, when it's been above freezing for several hours. In that case, it'll help scrub the trees. Seems like an eternity to get to about 12 hours from now, though...
  24. Update: We have one more batch of precip entering the ATX area now. This is going to last to around after lunch, then I think we'll be dry for another stretch. A bigger round of rain is coming in tonight but temps will rise. It's going to be a race <sigh>. Edit: Trying to provide some hope:
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