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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Power did the on/off/on flicker twice today but now the third time it's stayed off (20 mins. now) although it did try to go on. Probably won't post much here until it comes back on, if it ever does. Will check occasionally on the phone. Have a lovely day.
  2. Update: This last string of precip is now moving through the ATX metro area and environs. There is a bit of dry air seeping into it from the SW, so it's kind of getting chewed up. Doesn't mean there won't be an extra layer or two of ice forming, but hopefully it's being mitigated a bit - the line has narrowed W→E a good bit. Then we got a decent break (although more stuff could form up south of us, but so far no) until dinnertime or so. I'm still hoping that temps will climb into the 33+° range by "sunset" (whatever that is!). Temps are not going to go down now the next 12-24 hours - just up, so I'm squeezing hard rooting for that. Back later, I'd imagine.
  3. Pretty good explanation here. It could vary almost house to house, too. Not an easy call. I prefer no more rain period, or at least temps get warm enough to start melting the ice and making it soft. Then the rain could wash it right off.
  4. Not an easy answer, and temps are part of it, so the answer is... If the temps are at or near freezing, and the rain is heavy, and the air aloft is warm (like our situation today), it can actually bring warm air down with it and melt the ice, because both the air and rain > 32°. If you've ever poured faucet water into a cup of ice and it melts, you get the idea. However, if temps are lower and/or rain is not as heavy, it can be worse and add. If it's pouring out, it doesn't necessarily mean more ice accumulation... only so much water can layer up in a given instant, the rest will run off to the ground. But I don't think heavy rain is a good thing right now. And it won't be - until in many areas tomorrow morning, when it's been above freezing for several hours. In that case, it'll help scrub the trees. Seems like an eternity to get to about 12 hours from now, though...
  5. Update: We have one more batch of precip entering the ATX area now. This is going to last to around after lunch, then I think we'll be dry for another stretch. A bigger round of rain is coming in tonight but temps will rise. It's going to be a race <sigh>. Edit: Trying to provide some hope:
  6. What are things like in San Antonio/your area? I thought temps were > freezing pretty much south of 1604. My daughter was supposed to come home (to SAT) from Orlando today but they canceled, which surprised me.
  7. I did in about 8 places, didn't add up. Guess i picked the wrong ones.
  8. FYI, current outage map: Not sure how you get 100K out of that, but maths isn't a requirement.
  9. power just did the on/off/on flicker, this is gonna be a fun day. At least yesterday we got a notice that our power had been restored, but it never went out. Maybe I can use it as an IOU. Buckle up, gonna be a fun ride the next 24.
  10. Morning... well I'll leave out the "this is bad" talk because this is bad. Why it happened weatherwise I'll also skip over for now, but the bar ate us on this one. It's still gonna get worse in NW Texas today, but we have our own problems. So here's today weatherwise for Austin and immediate surroundings (N and W will be worse): - First the good(?) news is that this heavy band of rain is clearing the area to the NE. So at least for a few hours the ice won't get much worse. The bad news is another round should happen later today and tonight. How bad it'll be simply is how the temps fare. - Also, there is warm air slowly working its way up from the SW, and actually the heavier rain is dragging down warmer air above the cold layer. Hopefully these will cause temps to rise - but I'm not sure fast and wide enough. - Temps will rise actually into tonight for these (and other reasons), and most of us should actually be above freezing by wakeup tomorrow. But of course that means we have to get through today. It's not going to be fun. More and more stuff will break, power lost, etc. In this case, we didn't get much help to keep this from being a destructive storm. Sometimes you eat the bar, and sometimes... I'll be back later if weather merits it... oh yeah I've lost big parts of (for now and counting) 3 trees, all cedar. I'm gonna need a bigger chainsaw.
  11. No, as I said it's understandable. Especially families with kids and stuff, that was a terrible experience, I lived it myself, 4 days without power and a 45° house. But I guess I have enough chutzpah (arrogance) about to say what happened in '21 was otherworldly, and almost impossible over the next batch of years at least. It's always inconvenient with an icing situation again especially with kids, but keep in mind that even if this freeze lasted through Friday (it's going to be sunny, warm, in the mid to high 60s), that's only one-half of the duration of the '21 event. I realize that event has left the bad scar on people's psyches, but at some point they'll realize that's just not going to happen again. To my points and the one just before this, if I am wrong, you sonofabitches won't get here anyway. I live on a 1,100 ft. bluff west of austin, you'll never make it up here and you'll die trying in the cold. And I'll shoot ice pellets through my rifle. I'm safe. I do have one update: It looks like tomorrow will be a race against tiime and temp. The rain is definitely going to pick up in the early morning and things could get bad up until when (and IF) the temperature > freezing, which is now forecast in a good part of the region, we'll see. Without the sun, the temperature really needs to get above freezing for melting to occur; with it, it can be as cold as 26° and still melt. But we'll need the temperature up without the sun. My personal planning is not going anywhere at least through noon or 1 p.m. tomorrow, then hopefully driving on nothing but wet streets meant to late afternoonas the ice melts. 50/50 right now but I'm optimistic. Late Wednesday into thursday, I'll look at it.
  12. Understandable, but way too paranoid. We are not going to have an event like that in my, my kids', or my grandkids' lifetime. People forget just how utterly unworldly the combo of events were, it's probably more likely I'll win the lottery than that happening. Maybe somethng close (3-4 days) but nope, no 10 day not-yet-hitting-25 degrees after FIVE winter storms in FIVE days. I'm certain of it. Period.
  13. Oh, ok. Yeah, whenever I see models like that, I don't pay much attention until about 48 hours out. They're accurate to about 50% outside of that. I start paying attention within about 2-3 days. The local honks were still saying high 40's (started about high 50's a week earlier) for this week. No one was calling for ice. Admittedly I might have seen it if I had been looking at the Web models, I might have known. But really, it didn't make much difference in planning - 1-2 days is nothing as far as supplies, and the wife and I decided NOT to have our generator ready- this is a 48 hour max event, with cold but not frigid temps, and much less wind. This is an overrunning situation, not an arctic front blast that drives 15 degree winds up every crack in our house. If we'll lose power, we can manage. And since these 1-2 day freezups are common around here, I didn't think it was any big deal. I think people have gotten so jaded about the one in 1,000 year event that happened 2 years ago, they get nervous. Anyway, I'll try to update here if something's worth it. Meantime, 1) roads will be mostly ok if not iffy on elevations the rest of today, 2) rain stops so we'll get a break for much of the rest of the day and evening, 3) more rain moves in tomorrow the main system, just now moving out of SoCal. Temps will be critical to the degree of icing. I have a faint hope that a little slightly warmer air will be swept in with the system movement and mitigate the ice problems. We'll be right on the border of bad vs. not-bad ice, so there's no way know with something this close. Hopefully it'll be relegated to about a 12-15 hour event. Sporadic power outages mostly due to ice breaking stuff, not a grid problem. We'll see.
  14. Yes. I went there today after the post-apocalyptic rush of idiots buying 10 days' worth of shit yesterday. Roads were fine all morning, as I expected (because I study WEATHER!). Not a fair/accurate accusation. I'm only a ginger in my pubic area, where I bleached it. Thanks. Last week? What happened last week? This wasn't really on anyone's radar until maybe Friday or so. Hell, the forecasts called for highs in the high 40's as recently as Sunday. I didn't pay much attention to it until then, and when I saw that the temps were trending down, I started looking. A semi-polar blast but not a direct vortex hit here. But anyone who follows this stuff knows, the models *always* underestimate the density and coldness of these air masses. They need to get those working better. But this cold isn't much below freezing so it's taken much more time to overcome the warmth of the ground. Hell, the icing is taking even longer than I thought, which is why I was all out and over this morning doing errands. Yeah bridges and stuff froze over here/there, but I wasn't going far and on any long overpasses. Worked out great. Today it'll still be borderline - temps will hit either side of freezing in the area, so icing will be sporadic. Then this little disturbance is gone by dinner - no more precip. But overnight and into tomorrow might be bad, the main system is finally moving over us - more widespread/heavier precip. If people lose power, it'll be starting Wed. morning into Thurs. The icing amounts could be damaging. The hopefully good news is that if the wind stays down stuff won't break. If not, it'll be worse. Anyway, this has turned into a true winter event, but not atypical at all in this area, and only (now) about 2 days.
  15. Yeah, yeah I'm still alive. I'm not Missing in Action, at least that's what the Chinese and Russians told me at the ladies' garden meeting (yeah, it's a reference to something). Not a poster much any more, by design. Weather? Sometimes if needed. This one's borderline. Seriously, what do y' want to know about this, if anything? I'll try to answer.
  16. Disagree in part w/the feel of the car point, agree with most of the rest. Just got back from a week in UK, plus have driven numerous times in British-cultured countries (i.e. Caribbean). One thing apparently new, some cars now have blinkers on left side/wipers on right as we're used to (my car did), especially rental cars made in other countries. It doesn't take long to get the basic feel of the car, but driving there has a variety of conditions and unusual stuff. Plus, no matter what, it takes most Americans a lot more focus to keep the car centered on the left side - being used to driving on the right, most of us are pretty much unconscious about that. But in Britain, you are constantly thinking about it, taking up brainpower that normally is used for 2nd-level functions in an American car. The dreaded roundabouts are okay especially if you're used to any kind of traffic circles in the States (flowing clockwise though of course in UK), but there are some harrowing situations. One is that many of the "A" routes (usually 2 lane or 4 lane undivided) where you're going 65 suddenly end in a large roundabout, with medians between the lanes within the circle! This means you have to get into the exact lane you want or else just end up going the wrong way. The only way to overcome this is sheer familiarity - knowing the road exactly. 1-2 times over it will solve the problem usually. Also, most routes have the directions painted on the roadway, which gives little notice and often the writing is worn off. Yes they do have signs but often they're plied with a diagram of the roundabout, with as many as 3-4 routes marked and a list of destinations under each - it's like a page from War and Peace at times. Fortunately most roundabouts are smaller and less crowded with signage and traffic. The major routes (the "M"s), equal to interstates, are easy to drive but the flow is reversed - faster lanes towards the right, not left, and 90% of on/off ramps are on the left of the main highway. You are correct about the roads being narrow - and in fact most of them are much narrower than here (again the "M"s are wide though). Many roads have to waft through Medieval towns and so the lanes are very narrow. It does take a little practice to get used to the turns - right turn is across traffic while left is a direct turn. That's not too hard but yes there are some places you might not easily be able to see the lanes (British markings are a little rough sometimes). Driving isn't too hard and can actually be fun there. But make no mistake - it takes a lot more energy and concentration than in the States, mostly because you can't afford to relax and go "brain dead" as you can do here, being so used to it. The main thing is start out on unbusy roads, get the feel, and then work up into traffic only after being VERY comfortable with the car's handling. But it can be done without much struggle. BTW they still rent out (and drive) far more sticks than automatics... they're getting more in the rental car stocks, but it might cost extra (I always drive a stick and it's a lot of fun, plus it keeps me focused more than an automatic). Don't worry about driving in London - you pay a fee to be able to do so (congestion fee). Great idea. For most big cities, the speeds are slower so you have more time, but the worst enemy for an American driving in Britain - the dreaded one-way street - lurks. The #1 cause of accidents is thinking you're going the "British" way turning on a street but it's one way, or you come out of a one-way where traffic suddenly has 2 ways (and is often not well marked). But that's fairly rare, though worth mentioning. All in all, driving in Britain can get fun but for Americans you really can never let up. It takes more out of you but as long as you stay focused, it's fine - and weirdly differently enjoyable. It's also sinful and evil, but that's another story. Edit: The comments about wives/passengers going batshit cray with stress is spot on. It's VERY tough sitting in the passenger seat constantly watching the car get way too close to curbs and shit on their side (the left). My wife had a terrible time and frankly hated it even though she said I drove well (well except the one time I hit a low curb sticking out at night on an unfamiliar Oxford road!). Be sure each person smokes a peace pipe - driver says I won't yell at passenger for looking horrified, and passenger promises not to mother-in-law it to shout comments like "you're too far over!" or "watch it" and whatnot. Passengers unused to UK driving probably get much more stressed out than drivers, who are at least doing something and have some control over it!
  17. Wow, didn't know you were on your 43rd marriage! Congrats!
  18. Update: Rain done, more or less. Could be a shower somewhere in the area before sunset. However, the thing in the Bay of Campeche looks to bring better rain chances late weekend/early week. In any event, temps stay down. More if/when.
  19. Update: Not much from my last post.. but the front has stalled south of us about the I-10 corridor. They'll get the big rains today. However, Austin is sort of on the north end of this zone, so (as we've seen already today) rain is still likely around a lot of the area, even if not heavy. No TV weather honk has predicted that the front will move north again (bringing us potentially flooding rains) but that's always a possibility. There's not a lot out on the radar now beyond what's fallen this morning, but that can be deceiving. Stuff will pop up as the sun gets going. My guess is a cloudy day with only short periods of light/moderate rain. If the front moves north or we get a lot of lift going, I'll be back. Otherwise enjoy the fun. If it stays like this it might not even get much into the 80's, but I think enough sun will pop through that we get near or just over 90°. And not a 100 in sight for at least 5 more days. The meteorological season has changed for sure although of course we could easily get hot/dry and over 100 again... but we're done with the marathons. (Meteorological fall starts Sept. 1).
  20. Update: Yeomans (KXAN) put it well tonight: next 2-3 days is a "sloppy" forecast. That's because rain, and lots of it, is still very much in the picture. There's a slow-moving disturbance leaving a weak front behind it. But, that front's still potent enough to do what it did today for 95% of us in ATX. But he problem is that no one can really tell where the front will park - where it does, underneath it, gobs of rain. It moved through Dallas yesterday, Austin and east today, but now it can stall and even move back north - or more south. That's the slop. Still, another little disturbance is coming into the picture and it'll interact with that front. The result: high chances of rain (>70%) the next 2 days. Much of it is gone tonight, but don't get cozy - models are showing a thunderstorm outbreak 3-4 a.m. right in the ATX area. Even if that fizzles, it'll certainly whip back up tomorrow. Widespread flooding is still not out of the picture, never mind the flash flooding (Shoal Creek today had it's 4th highest crest - EVER! - in less than an hour from essentially being a rock bed!). I'll come back to try and give a better idea tomorrow where the rain falls, as the sun heats up and shows the trigger point plus with the possitility of more flooding, I'll try to stay on top of it. ironically, 50 miles one way or another won't get squat. But there's 2 days for everyone to get a piece of the pie. Longer range, the end of August is more like the end of April, and September is shaping up to start cool and wet. If the big heat comes back, it'll have to do it well into the first week of Sept. We might get one of our top 10, even close to #1, rainiest August's ever. Bet you didn't think that would happen 2 weeks ago. Weather, she be funky an' shit. More later.
  21. Flash flood warning for Austin Central till 7:15. "I'm sick of all this rain, I wish it would dry up and we could get some sun and warm weather!!" -Surly
  22. Chances of it hitting 100° today are... not so good...
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