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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. I thought you were purty, I thought you were nice, You were butterflies, sugar and spice, But I got busted, things are a mess, For layin' my pipe at an illegal IP address; © 2021 Have A Seat Music, Inc.
  2. Ollie Weather Forecast 'cause I wrote a lot yesterday. "Storm done stopped!!" "Be here for 2-3 days!" "It's gonna rain!" "Not all day, everywhere, but off/on!" (Later)
  3. Tornado warning expired for Hays.
  4. Back for a sec... Tornado warning for New Braunfels area, moving toward San Marcos. Golf ball sized hail. Should move well south of Austin proper, maybe skirt SE Travis County.
  5. Alright, for ATX I'm cautiously optimistic that we won't get slammed by the first wave dry line. Storms are trying to build but just aren't. I chalk that up to the lack of sun today, ground wasn't really warm so it didn't radiate heat up the way it might. Anyway, the dry line should pass through by 10 or so. The following storms are part of the system proper, and we'll have periods of all intensities of rain all over the greater portion of Texas through tomorrow morning. Sure some storms might be loud, but I think the worst severe will move off soon. Rain totals could pile up, but are forecast to mostly be west of us with the greater ones. Still, it'll probably be a rainy night with occasional moderate storms, yeah 1-2 could be low-end severe but mostly not. Later, I'm out unless sumpin' happens.
  6. I've been watching the radar all up and down 35 and these storms are weakening, as NWS said they should. They've nailed this forecast right on... so far. The stuff behind this first wave contains thunderstorms, some strong, but I'm hoping if we dodge this first, worst bullet over the next hour we'll be okay all night. Waves of rain here/there and of course still a chance for a TS, but hopefully the worst (as expected) is in this first wave. Crossing fingers.
  7. Yes, because it is. You're gonna get the northern half of that thing. But at least it's weaker.
  8. It's possible to have L & T in a dry-on-the-ground situation. If the cloud contains enough moisture, the positive charges mostly in the mid/upper cloud will cause enough friction with the lower par, which has mostly negative charges. You might get a flash/peal even though it's not storming. That's my guess. 45 miles is a helluva long way to throw a lightning strike.
  9. Y'all might really have to remember the Alamo after this (jk... probably).
  10. Does this bring Jim Spencer out of retirement? Jim right now:
  11. Yeah, I heard a decent peal of thunder, looked at the radar, and didn't see a storm within 50 miles. I'm like, what in the world??? Sometimes that happens right when a storm blows up, but no storms. Not unusual for lightning to strike well away from storms (a product of the electricity in the air generated by warm/cold friction) but 45 miles is a pretty good distance.
  12. Yeah, I think we're gonna get spanked by the line forming now just E. of San Angelo. Probably about 10-11. That's likely wind and hail in some pinpoint location. But that's a textbook dry line spring complex. Storms are supposed to weaken by the time they get here... uh, we'll see.
  13. I looked at the CONUS visible and there was a clear patch all day along the Rio Grande from Del Rio down almost to McAllen. Temps in that stretch got above 90° today. It's no wonder that this thing is so bad down there. So far, if you were to ask me, I'd say our cloud cover today (which lasted all day, wasn't expected to) has been a help. However, one more line I think is working itself up out by San Angelo. I expect this line to be less intense as the daytime's ended, but if we're gonna get severe in ATX, it'll be that one. I'd say chances are 30% someone within 100 miles of downtown will get some hail or strong wind. I don't think tornado for that line.
  14. Interdasting... that's a bad storm when this happens.
  15. A storm behind it caught up and merged. Not what you want, ever, in a rotating supercell. Just like putting a defibrillator on it.
  16. T&P in San Antonio, hopefully it'll weaken like the storms are supposed to when they get our way. We lucked out, it's moving slightly NE but too far south to probably impact much of Travis, though San Marcos might get the edge, and this is if it doesn't expand. Bad storm. Edit: Pretty good windmaking line heading NE through Mason, San Saba, and Burnet. Could drop some brief hail the way it looks right now, might weaken. So far Austin is again in the middle of the goalposts, but I expect that line to fill in, at least a bit.
  17. I was a kid when Apollo 11 landed. I always thought, why didn't Michael Collins say if you don't let me walk on the moon, I'm pulling out of here and you guys are toast. That's the kind of stuff you think about when you're a kid. RIP.
  18. Tornado watch now in Hill country ending in counties bordering (but not including) Travis/Hays/Williamson. Depending on what happens to that current line, this could be extended into our counties. Keep an eye out.
  19. Okay, the line is definitely ramping up now. Del Rio thru Sonora thru just E. of San Angelo. That's it, that's the one. Keep an eye on severe areas, those are most likely to track far and would be the bullseye(s) for our area. BTW, if something doesn't happen, well remember that marginal means marginal. It's not supposed to happen a lot. Perspective. It's not like the entire state will be tsunami'd. But if you're under it, might as well be. I've posted a lot here in the last 10 minutes, so I'm done now. Park your car under something hard.
  20. That's your loss. Yeah these storms are going to stick around but TS's come and go. I still they they'll get 'em all in. But like I say, gotta wait 24 hrs. to see what crystalizes. Gotta get thru tonight first.
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