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phdhorn

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Everything posted by phdhorn

  1. Atlanta Fed about to hit with not good report, 2nd quarter contraction (-1%) = recession. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=2c1a736e3628 The "good news" is that it's likely been in recession (well furking duh!) for the past 1/2 year. So it might ease up soon. I'll let e'rrybody here sort it out later.
  2. ... and this one's behaving and staying the hell outta the way and not ruining my weekend.
  3. Core inflation continued to inch down in May - 4.9% to 4.7%. Not wonderful, but a lot better than going up. So, May core down a bit, CPI up. Kinda a wash.
  4. It was so bad I had to finance my Pet Rock.
  5. Worst 1/2 year since Marcus Welby, M.D. was treating patients in Santa Monica, and Geraldine was all the rage. (Don't remember these? Yeah, that's how long it's been). https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/29/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html Yay!
  6. Yeah, I don't think anyone here is set on an Austin big rain event, and you're right... the huge majority of these early-season Gulf-forming storms almost always go NE there are sound reasons for that, too, nagonnatellemherenow. The only reason why this one could is that the frontal boundary that's now more or less burnt out NW of the storm might still have enough juice to draw it in and interact. But this storm was originally forecast to be a coast-hugger, so nothing is that out of whack with the models. If it gets enough mass it could bully its way NW ward as well, but dunno. Since the front broke up the high ridge which would normally chew this thing up and spit it out, and the high isn't re-settled yet, there's a tinker's chance. But right now it's pretty much a coin toss.
  7. Looks like I'm luckin' out. PTC 1 (down over Guyana or somewhere) is sputtering, but more importantly, staying way south. Shouldn't impact Cancun over the weekend at all, though it's certainly going to strengthen quickly once clearing the continent (SA). PTC 2 is likely heading more NW-ward, and could potentially be a Cancun storm - but it won't arrive until mid next-week at the Mexican coast, if it gets there at all. Plenty of time for me to get in/out by Monday evening. As for you, I wouldn't think you'd have any problems. The storm is bringing a little rain and wind to Houston today, but flying over the main part of it is no big deal (flying over hurricanes isn't turbulent, usually - it's flying into them that's a riot). I wouldn't think you'll be buffeted too much except for a little bumpy ride down through the outer edge of it - and it's still pretty comparatively weak.
  8. Today it looks a bit stronger... NE convection isn't bubbling as much, is steadier.A little wrap on NW quadrant, and SE has at least a bubble-up. SW will lag, especially if storm gets close to land and pulls in only dry air. Center (red dot/white edge) today has drifted SW from yesterday as expected. Still has a fighting chance of developing into a TS, it ain't over yet. White specks are lightning strikes BTW. My little semi-eduated guess is that if it continues more of a W-SW drift it'll go up on the "right" side of Austin, that is over or west of ATX. If it starts heading north today, ATX might get nothin' or close to it. Right now leaning ever so slightly to a path over or W of ATX.
  9. I don't to much to concerts anymore (being an olds and having seen most of the people I've wanted to see in their prime, plus no one's worth $100/ticket unless they do healings onstage between sets). Any-hoo, wifey bought me b-day tix in March to see Don McLean. It was kind of a "gee whiz, 50 years since American Pie" kind of whim - I'm not a McLean fan per se though I've casually liked his songs. Anyway he was at the Paramount Sunday night, and I've gotta say that although he's getting up there and his voice is nowhere near it was (he's 76), he put on a pretty good, basic show. Sound wasn't too hot but the musicians were great and the guy can flat our sing/perform. I've come to realize how amazingly terrific his voice was in his prime - some big rock guy, maybe it was Dylan, called him "one of the best pure voices in rock" and I can see it. How effortlessly he cruses through all quick slides, jumps and wide ranges in his prime. All in all a pretty damn good show and the guy can flat out play and sing. And I gotta say, I was much, much more thrilled than I expected to see this guy, who might have 6-7 good years left, the source of one of the best singles of all time, belt it out in person. Very neat. Singing Vincent: And, the final song before the encore (which was 2 songs), "American Pie" of course - the place exploded...
  10. Not easy to find the center, but it's about here (red dot): Looks like it even took a jog east on the latest loop. Yeah, it's still a mess, the stationary front NW of it could be playing with it a little. Watch for the SW wrap to see if it's getting organized.
  11. KXAN update: https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/first-warning-tropical-low-could-bring-heavy-rain-to-central-texas/ (excerpts, bolded mine)... sub-tropical storms can still pack a lot of rain. Still 50/50 coastal vs. inland rain: There still remains uncertainty as to where this tropical low will come ashore, but there is increasing confidence that this disturbance will stay sub-tropical storm strength as it runs out of ocean real estate before getting pushed over land. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% probability of further organization within two days. The European (ECMWF) model shows a more easterly track with the heaviest rain favoring east Texas, leaving Central Texas with minimal rainfall accumulation. The American (GFS) model shows a more southerly, disorganized track that would leave our southern counties favored for ~1″ of rain, and lesser amount elsewhere.
  12. More rain than expected... how often has that ever happened? These frontal boundary things like last night are always unpredictable, usually way less. But I think that lil' storm in the western Gulf was helping and interacting wiht the front, ramping it up a bit. Then what happened is that it's been so hot and dry that a sort of unusual thing occurred - the outflow boundaries (cool air pushed down and out towards the north) from the storms to the south of us actually caused lift when interacting with the hotter, drier air and allowed storms to form towards the north, where they weren't forecast as much. Perfect cocktail for enhanced rain. Took its time but actually the highest chance of rain in last night's forecast was between 8-10 p.m. so it was pretty spot on - the only thing off was the amount. More widespread and higher totals than forecast. Today should dry out a bit, most storms should be W/SW of us but could drift up. Then we have a break Wed before this Gulf thingy does what it's gonna do... no doubt it'll pack tons of rain. The only question is how far inland will it get. Absolutely some parts well into Central Texas and even west will get rain, but where the concentration occurs is up for grabs. These things can spread rain out but usually have a core - a concentrated swath of rain - and right now it's forecast to be east of ATX. But we'll see. Temps will be helped a good bit to moderate since the heat has been washed out of the ground. Should be a nice 2 days at least temp wise before the disturbance does what it does. Back if warranted (i.e. significant rain coming to ATX). Meanwhile, Houston and Corpus and points on the coast, flooding could happen late week. Watch it.
  13. I don't think CD players and discs will disappear 100%. But as I said, they're getting harder to find stuff to play them on. Yeah they still manufacture stand-alone players (the olds are probably holding that market up for a little while longer before it crashes, see ahead), but in 2010 almost 80% of cars had them - now it's down to 25% and predictions are around 10% after 2025. According to a YouGov poll, 53% of CD's (and players) are bought/used by 55+ers; only 6% of 18-25 year olds have/listen to CD's and players. Perhaps the biggest crash - pun half intended - is in the computer market. Of course with the emergence of the phone as the primary digital device for young'uns (under 35's especially), things have bottomed out for CD's. In 2018, 83% of games and music were downloaded (i.e. MP3 type stuff), while only 17% were CD's. And that percentage has declined by 11% in 2019 and 2020. This article from the RIAA is rife with facts detailing the essential death of the CD. Most striking is the clear plunge in CD revenues; even over the year 2019-2020 it went from a measly 5.5% to a 2.3%. Most of the major CD retailers are done with them; BestBuy stopped selling them in 2018 and Wal-Mart and Target have cut their inventories by about 75% since 2015. Then there's this little graph which is really interesting - the CD market is now almost where it first emerged in 1985 - from essentially nothing: Anyway, the point is taken - there will always, like vinyl and cassette tapes, be a collector's market for CD players and disks. But CD's are now a niche market, almost completely out of the norm of purchase for music. Time/Life will continue to push for the olds a little while longer, and they'll survive. I don't dislike CD's and hope the market sustains that very tiny slice that nostalgic forms do. But very, very few CD's will be worth anything on the market - they've easily been ripped and there's not really much nostalgic value in the physical product (very unlike vinyl). So the point is sure, keep your CD's if they mean something to you (and for a lot, they do, even that physical case & disk). But if you dump them there is pretty much zero chance that in 20 years you'll regret doing so. There are just too few rarities only on CD form to bring any money. Sentimental value is about it.
  14. There are few things as worthless in life as a commercially-released CD. Other than unique collector's cuts which might not have a vinyl counterpart, they're never going to be worth anything. Other than personal stories or sentimental value, they're essentially trash - they didn't emerge in any sort of pioneering era of communication, and their obvious obsolescence gave them a eye-blink 15 year run. It's getting difficult to find anything that can even play them, and unlike turntables they have little commercial or collectors' value. Other than your personal story/save reason(s), that's it. Best to use them as such: (VHS tapes have a bit more collector's worth/value as they were THE first portable video mode, so they can draw some serious cash - both players and tapes. But there's virtually nothing except your own personal life recordings that aren't now out digitally, so it's pointless to save most of them for anything but personal value, too).
  15. <Almost not wanna post here today, but...> Decent but not great change of significant rain this week: - Mon day - fuggeddabouddit - Mon aft/night - pretty good chance of brief shower. Don't get out your surfboard. - Tues day - nah - Tues night -nyah nyah - Wed day - what's for dinner, tacos? - Wed night - no, leftovers - Thurs day - nudgy lil' chance as this whatever arrives from NOLA - Thurs night - but probably will do the coast more - Fri day - if it's happenin', it's happenin' now thru Sat day. Is it happenin'? Dunno, if so will be back. tl;dr: spotty rain, brief very scattered, mostly Tuesday then later Thursday-Saturday if so. Most of it right now looks coastal or just inland. That is all. For now.
  16. Only LITB thread I could find... I just ordered this, have wanted one for years. This is the coolest T-shirt ever made.
  17. That one is yellow. Atmospheric yeast infection. It'll stay away. I think it'll cross the continent and look for some Pacific snatch.
  18. Here's another one with both storms figured in, FWIW right now: Jeez, I'll be in the donut hole in Cancun - if this holds (and I hope it does). That "yellow" system is forecast to drift NW for once, not bullet train it to Louisiana as apparently required by law or something... well at least it's not forecast to go there - yet.
  19. Models coming into agreement that whatever it is, it's going south. I hope so, don't want that in the Yucatan next week!
  20. That's a really cool Fender M7STAI. Very limited edition model I think only 3 were produced. BTW I'm going to Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy in the first 1/2 of September. What do I get?
  21. Happy 78th birthday, Jeff Beck. You're no Johnny Depp, but if you hang around with him long enough I'm sure you'll learn a ton from him.
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