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Codaxx

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Posts posted by Codaxx

  1. 8 hours ago, irishtexan said:


    Christ almighty. I’m so tired of the “we are everyone’s super bowl” bullshit. If you think we are everyone’s super bowl, then win some goddamn Super Bowls.

    The Super bowl is the dumbest thing on the Longhorn internet. OU wins the league every year, but everyone is really gunning for the team that usually finishes 3-4th the last decade 

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  2. 6 minutes ago, NoName said:

    there is bad and there is TERRIBLE, i was expecting bad and got TERRIBLE. 83 and 115? yikes.

    image.png.469cd19ea4c640fe0821f21e51ed0d07.png

     

    Thanks.. This was mentioned in Sark's presser. I had wondered if Sark went basic, when the offense struggled or was in bad field position. The play calling seemed bland. Sark basically confirmed that. Saying he gives the offense something he feels they can execute. He later said going through the tape that even when they were struggling, they executed "more elaborate" plays and he needed to keep that in mind going forward (paraphrasing, Its one of the last questions in his latest presser, if anyone wants to hear it). I think that illustrates how much help the offense needs. They need all the misdirection and eye candy possible to slow the defense down in order to succeed. When Sark simplifies, which would seem logical, it only exacerbates the situation, because the OL cant win straight up. 

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  3. 9 minutes ago, NoName said:

    74 in defensive drive efficiency

    96 in YPP

    86 in DPD (defensive points per drive)

    97th in Value Drive Rate (Value drive rate (DVD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position.)

    73 in DFD (first down rate)

    preseason had them at the #31 DFEI team, so clearly some of that is still in the rankings, plus the adjustment for #35 SOS

    F+, SP+, FEI ranks:

    Image

    (from ksu_FAN on twitter)

    also from ksu_FAN - texas has a shitty HAVOC rate. Texas leader in Havoc / game is fucking Luke Brockermeyer

    image.png.6ab1c9903a254b69be6dbc481439552d.png

    explosive play rates, including garbage

    FCec-lNWEAEriHm?format=png&name=small

     

    per drive stats, excluding garbage:

    FCd2iAzXIAQN_GJ?format=png&name=large

     

     

     

    I dont remember the stats, you may have them, but I saw somewhere that the Texas offense has been a disaster when starting with poor field position. What people are not accounting for in the defensive stats is field position. There is huge difference in the opposition starting at the 20 and getting a 3 and out vs this defense that allows 49% of yards available or the offense gaining 40 yards and now the field is flipped. 

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  4. 5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    this.  the issue is we are getting gashed with the run in our losses.  not stopping the run is gonna make you look really shitty because it is completely demoralizing and our DC made zero adjustments(personnel or scheme) to stop it or at least somewhat control it on the 3 best teams on our schedule so far.

    Inability to stop the run makes them bad. The inconsistency of the Texas OL, makes it nearly impossible to protect them. Texas can not just line up and run the ball vs a reasonable defense. TCU is not a reasonable defense (9th in the big 12 in rush defense). The one issue I think that is killing Texas and Sark, is when he tries to protect the dfense, the offense implodes. He needs to embrace the All Gas mantra, because this is not an offense capable of 8-10 play drives. He actually acknowledge this in his last press conference. 

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  5. 16 minutes ago, Had Enough said:


    I suppose our definitions of wretched are a little different.

    I did a little quick calc. Pig was less than 6 per in the first half. 16 points, 3 of which possession started at the 14. Our 14.

    4 of our 6 possessions were 3 and outs. Another was 5 plays, and the other resulted in no points. Then we open the 2nd half with a 3 and out. The wheels completely came off when the offense lost it downs then turned it over. Not saying the defense was championship caliber, but the offense was the primary culprit for the loss.

    OU you can point to primarily defense. Then OSU primarily offense.

    Our best player is on offense, which has nothing to do with the staff and scheme or play calling.

    In those 3 games, our defense forced 11 3 and outs. The offense had 18. I included it as one if there was a turnover in the first 3 plays or if there was a 4th down attempt that didn’t convert and no first downs were achieved.

    We’re simply not playing well enough on either side to finish and win. I’d put more of the blame on the offense.

    Pig the offense was bad, I never argued that. ARK is taking the lion share of the 3 and outs. My bad is 5.72 yards per play and 5.65 per rush. Gave up 223 yards, so on pace for 446 yards. Wretched is an exaggeration, but far from good. If you give up 223 yards and face 39 plays in a half, you will tire. 

    The biggest issue with the defense is they dont get off the field

    Rank 71st in 2Q points and 91st in 3Q pts. That isnt on the offense

    Rank 96th with 6.24 yards per play

    73rd in First down rate (drives that result in at least 1 first down)
     

    79th is DAY (Yards available) with roughly 50% (offense starts on the 20, they average 40 yards of offense on that drive).. 

    97th in DVD (percentage of opponent offensive drives that conclude with a drive end value greater than the drive start value based on field position) at 72%

    80th in 3rd down conversion % allowed

     

    Those stats tell you why the defense is tired, its because they dont get off the field. The offense has not always helped them and hurt them at times, but they defense does itself no favors. No to mention OSU is a bad offense. They are actually dad last in yards per play in the Big 12. Yes, behind even Kansas. 

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  6. 12 minutes ago, kwood4408 said:


    And that is 1 of the 3 losses but point taken. OU 2H was an abomination as well so now that’s 2 of 3 losses. Against Arky it was the 1H+ so now that’s 3 of the 3 losses. Don’t get me wrong defense has been less than ideal to say the least but this isn’t and all or nothing thing, both sides of the ball have been way too inconsistent for long stretches. I don’t have stats, I just am going off what my eyes are telling me.

    Offense had three 3 and outs vs OU defense in the second half. They had 2 drives ending in points and 1 drive ending at the OU 24 on downs. I dont think that is a complete disaster or  leaving the defense out to dry.  It is not optimal, but it is only a disaster because OU score 35 pts. My point is that people are excusing the defense for things that are self-inflicted. The bottom line is they dont get off the field. They allow opposing offenses to flip the field constantly. Every DC would love to coach along side great Wisconsin offenses, but that isnt in the cards. Both units are inconsistent, but the offense goes from excellent to disaster in games. The defense goes from mediocre to disaster. By the way, people are like the defense played well vs OSU. For the record OSU is arguably the worst offense in the Big 12 currently. They average 5.18 yards per play, even Kansas is ahead of them 5.2

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  7. 2 minutes ago, kwood4408 said:


    After the Bijan TD in the 3Q against OSU, we might have been better off just kneeling the ball every play. That would have least run the clock a bit.

    That is 1 game that you could say the offense was the culprit. That said the defense gave up almost 6 yards a play in that game. I am talking about the season. The defense gives up at least 1 first down on 72% of opponent drives. That is 73rd in the country. Cant blame the offense for the defense being ranked  71st in points allowed in the 2nd quarter and 91st in points allowed in the 3Q

  8. 3 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

    He has had the luxury of having 1st round talented CBs at Udub, and really good safety play.  The game vs Tech showed that we don't have a shut down corner, our best was getting smoked.  We already established that Schooler, Foster, Je Thompson have all continued to struggle.  This is the reason why I think you have to give him another full season to get this thing heading into the right direction.  Portal is going to be Vital

    I think he is a quality coach with a serious resume. I think the talent is below what he is accustomed to, for various reasons (roster holes, football IQ). I also think it is fair to say he has made plenty of mistakes that have made a mediocre defense into a shit show. Acknowledging that fact, does not mean I think he should be fired. 

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  9. 4 minutes ago, Thiefery said:

    for all the shit the defense is getting, they got no favors from the offense in the second half vs osu.  If the offense could have put together drives that resulted in one first down, at least, we win that game.

     

    The offense has had issues in the second half, but its to the defense to get themselves off the field. Games like Ark and OU gave you a good idea, it was only a matter of time before the defense totally collapsed. Texas is 80th in 3rd down conversions allowed. 96th in yards per play at 6.24. 79th in defensive yards available at ~50%.. Its been ugly. 

  10. 7 minutes ago, burdine said:

    I think the offensive staff has done a solid job of know themselves and their weekly opponent (excepting Arky) and tried to maximize their gameplan.  The first half performance provides a fair amount of evidence supporting that.

    The defense has been the exact opposite.  They have come out each week (except Ok State) pretty much the same and to do what PK did at UW.  It also displays a pretty profound lack of self knowledge of our defensive talent.

    I need to see pretty strong improvement on defense the rest of the way or I'd like a change.

    This team is 6-1 and in the driver's seat for the Big 12 Championship with a Big 12 average defense this year.  Now that would be some fool's gold because the Big 12 seems pretty lacking in top end elite teams but it would be a solid narrative to go forward with.

    I guess I'm still hopeful overall because if we had offensive issues then that would reflect even worse on Sark.

    I dont think PK is doing what he did at Washington and think that is part of the problem. He was a cover 3 shell guy there. He plays mostly Cover 4 at Texas. At Washington the CBs played pretty tight to the WRs and bailed. Here is giving up a lot of easy throws. with CBS playing off.  He was much more aggressive at Washington. For lack of a better term, he seems to be coaching afraid at Texas. Not sure if it is because he doesnt trust his secondary or if it something else. 

  11. 1 hour ago, Had Enough said:


    This is at least one of two aspects of this team I’m on an island of few.

    There are reasons for optimism across the board including defense. The crappy performance was OU. But they were aided by the officials and good fortune including a couple of huge lower percentage pass completions. Six inches here (Washington out of bounds), six inches there (Mims in bounds). Two very near fumbles that we recovered. And we lost our best pass rusher in game right after the bs non illegal touching that led to a TD. Two big rushes should have come back 10 yards the other way. Then there was Tech 2nd half, but we put up 70 so it’s not surprising we lost a little intensity. Then you’ve got 4th quarter Pig and OSU.

    In our 3 losses, the offense has had 4, maybe 5 quarters of good football. The defense has been more consistent on those game but still not good in the 4th.

    We’re not dominant anywhere but damn near all our guys have played some quality football. But many have been consistently inconsistent leading to some poor play too. I’m of the opinion that if you do it occasionally you are capable of repeating it more often. Offense and defense. That’s where we are. Repeat the good shit. Our 22 are capable of winning out. That’s not to say we’ve got all Americans all over the field. We’ve given up on average one deep pass per game. That’s not bad. A better pass rush would help (who wouldn’t say that though), but the defense needs better safety play and largely in the run game. You get more consistency there, you’ll see considerable improvement from a numbers standpoint and likely winning football.

    Just find a way to win from here on out. That’s the objective.

    If consistent means bad, I am with you. At least the offense, outside of Arkansas, has had moments of greatness. Defense was wretched vs OU and Ark pretty much the entire game. I believe both teams were well over 6 yards per play in the first half of both games. 

  12. 1 hour ago, JBJ said:

    And a lot of it is self-inflicted.  We've fumbled snaps, false starts, busted handoffs...etc.  There's a good team in there somewhere but it keeps getting in the way of itself.

    There's also a clear decline when backup OL/TE enter the field.  We are strong in ways that at times get completely nullified by our weaknesses.

    I think the offense is actually out-performing its talent. The defense is under-performing its talent. I think Collins have really help the run defense, but as you said when they sub its a train wreck. 

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  13. I think it is too early to get in the 7 win Steve camp. The offense is better. I did like  his Mea Culpa in the presser yesterday. Basically saying he has dialed down the offense, when they have struggled. Trying to give them plays he knows they can execute. He said he went over film and saw the "elaborate" plays were actually working in the 2nd half and he needed to call more of them when the offense struggled. I think the offense is better and the schemes are better. He is gotten a decent amount out of this offense, despite poor OL, mediocre QB play, and mediocre WRs. The defense has been a train wreck, though OSU game may hint of progress. Moving Collins out to the edge, certainly helped. If Ford's performance becomes his standard, LB might not be a disaster. No idea where this goes at the moment, there are bits you can argue for on boht sides of the argument. Mistakes were clearly made. The real evidence of Sark will come this off-season. What changes does he make. How does he attacck the weaknesses in the portal. I would also like to see him money whip a S&C coach. I am not going go Nahlin on this, but tired of Texas grabbing jags there. 

  14. 8 minutes ago, Nivek said:


    Sarks portal problem was that he was bringing in people not in positions of need. It’s one thing to hit the portal to stack your roster, it is another to do so with positions we don’t need.

    Hard to say there was not a need for the edge defenders he brought in. If any position needed bodies that was it. Worthy isnt quite a portal kid, but you could say that was the biggest post recruiting win for the program in a long time. 

  15. Some stats i think illustrate the issues with the offense. 

    8th in the nation in OTD (percentage of offensive drives that result in a touchdown).. excellent

    14th in ODE (Offensive drive efficiency).. very good

    118th in OBD (Busted drive rate is the percentage of offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards).. WTF!!!

    The offense is literally all or nothing. I think that goes to the fact that the offense is really outperforming itself. They are 2nd in the Big in scoring (41.6, OU is 41.8). The offense and Sark can scheme well when they are ahead of the chains, but as soon as they get behind it is basically a death sentence. Without great OL and QB play, you are going to really struggle when you get behind the chains. OL is 109th in Sack rate and 122nd in standard down Sack rate (this likely the times Sark is calling the "shot plays"). Casey is 8th in total QBR in the Big 12.

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  16. On 10/23/2021 at 8:26 PM, Xian said:

    Next weeks game is huge. I honestly want to see what they can do after a bye week.   If they are ever going to adjust scheme to fit personnel it’s now.  
     

    My biggest rage is coaches who force square pegs into round holes.  They need to slowly mold it over time.  This week  it’s time for PK and by extension Sark, to look themselves in the mirror and realize the players aren’t there to make their ideal packages work. 
     

    baylor will tell us a lot how nimble stark can get.   We lose in the same fashion we have been, it’s over. It’s Just waiting the buyout to drop and hoping we get enough decent players recruited for the next coach.  

    Texas is 2nd in scoring offense (41.6, OU is at 41.8). 3rd in Total offense and 4th in yards per play. All that is in the backdrop of having a bad OL, poor QB play (Casey is 8th in QBR in the Big 12), and a very mediocre WR corp. Say what you want about the defense, but really hard to get on Sark and his ability to scheme up an offense. The 2nd half should be better, but the numbers dont lie. 

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  17. 52 minutes ago, oldhorn2 said:

    my take is that if Casey's thumb is ok we will win going away. If his thumb aint ok who knows what will happen. We lost two weeks in a row because of that thumb, I just hope we dont go for the hat trick.

    Casey is now 8th in QBR in the Big 12 (58.4) and actually has the lowest QBR on the team. Bohannan is #1 in the Big 12 (75.9)

  18. 4 minutes ago, Atticus said:

    You mean the floor is lower? Bc if both are higher, then you are calling for Card.

    my bad. I meant the ceiling is higher and the floor is lower with Card. 

  19. 2 hours ago, Atticus said:

    Woof. Card didn't look like a world-beater against ULL, but they may have been better than we gave them credit for. It was also his first start. 

    The team needs a leader in the worst way, Casey isn't amazing there, but Card looks too timid out there. 

    If Casey just gets back to moving the chains, he'll be fine. That quick game stuff with the sneaks was great before, but we've gone away from that too.

    If you go by Total QBR by starting QBs for Texas. Card had a 90.9 vs ULL and Casey peaked at a 97.1 vs Tech. I will say one difference between those games is Card was the catalyst in the first half for Texas during the ULL game. Bijan didnt get going until the second half. That said I have no idea who is the right call at QB. Casey looks more poised, but he lacks arm strength and has turnover issues. Card looks awesome in 7 on 7, but Ark was extremely ugly. I am not sure if that was a deer in headlights moment as he stepped into his first big test with literally no help or if that is something that will haunt him forever. I know it is not allowed on the internet, but I can see arguments for either QB. I will say the ceiling on the offense is higher with CArd, but so is the floor. 

  20. 1 minute ago, Had Enough said:


    Foster pick versus OU. It was kinda right to him but still. He had a QB pressure this weekend but think it still resulted in a completion. It was neither a great play or a failure on his part. He had a late blitz vs OSU. Unblocked at the point of attack. Just ran by the RB. 3 yard loss turned in to a 30 yard gain. A huge play in every regard.

    Jerrin had a QB pressure, but left his feet which likely cost us a sack. That was OU. I think his play versus OU got Schooler on the field more.

    I actually believe they have the ability to get it done. No idea why there isn’t more production. Don’t need hero’es. Just do your job. A 20 plus yard run with two high safeties should be very rare. These guys need to clean up runs 8-12 yards downfield. A good example was that game winning OU TD. That can’t and shouldn’t have happened.

    I have lost confidence in that group. They are not involved in the run game, mostly by alignment, and they are giving up big plays. When you are 117th in allowing plays over 20 yards and 115th in yards per rush allowed, you have serious issues. Deep safeties are not preventing big plays and you are giving up easy yards in the run game, so what is the point? Either you have to make personnel changes or strategic changes.

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  21. 36 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

    He’s probably right about this - we bust lots of protections even when our tackles aren’t just getting straight up beat - but at a certain point you just have to simplify.  That goes for the defense, too.  Even if they should be grasping things better, you can either watch them bust the perfect call or give them a less perfect one they’re more likely to execute.

    Remember the yearly Mack Brown era “we have to simplify” press conference after our first loss?  It usually worked.  Football players bust a ton of assignments, and many of the “evolved” modern offenses are so successful in part because they make things simpler, not more clever or complex.  

    It isn’t just Texas players who make idiotic mistakes.  There was one play on Saturday where Okie State had 3 WRs bunched to the field side, we only had one defender on that side, and instead of throwing the bubble screen there Sanders threw an out for minimal gain to the other side.  The whole point of the play is to count how many defenders are on each side pre snap and throw to the one with the best numbers advantage, and we gave them the most obvious numbers advantage they will ever see.  It’s an absurdly simple calculation, and he still blew it.

    You need to try to minimize the potential for human error in football rather than overly complicating things.  That’s a truism that applies to most things in life, but frankly, probably more so to college football.  These guys make a lot of mistakes, and we’re  generally give them more assignments  to digest, as well as more complex ones, than they’ve had before - particularly on offense.  It works better when they’re hitting on all cylinders, but expecting them to always hit on all cylinders is folly.  

    I'll use a golf analogy. When you shank your drive. You start thinking on the next one and end up hooking it. It is the same with the OL and QB for that matter. They start getting beat, start thinking, and it quickly becomes a shit show. The one issue with simplifying is they are not very good and they dont have VY or Colt to turn a shitty play into the touchdown play. They cant just roll a defense like OSU running simple plays. Herman tried it and it did not work. For this OL to work, they need to make the defense think and be a step slow, because they cant just push people around. They do one thing at a reasonable level, much of that is because of Bijan's vision and cut back ability, that is OZ. Sark needs to take the week and write down as many possible plays as he can that look like OZ and counters to it and motions to disguise it. That would help, but the key for the last 5+ years for the offense is to stay in front of the chains. Given where the OL and the QB is at this stage, 3rd and long is basically a death sentence. So run it a lot early and use a lot of quick game and that is going to kill Sark, because you know he wants to take deep shots on 1st/2nd down. 

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