The odds suggest he will. It isn't a certainty, but it is more likely than not.
I like playing around with ChatGPT. For all of its faults, it does have an enormous amount of data on things like this. Here is what it says:
Statistical Breakdown
1. First-Year Starting QBs Tend to Hurt Team Performance
On average, teams with a brand-new starting quarterback see their winning percentage drop by about 3.4%, while also underperforming point-spread expectations (covering just 49%) The Score.
2. Adding Four or More New Offensive Starters Compounds the Issue
Teams with a new QB and up to four new offensive starters have historically struggled badly:
Only 20 out of 82 such teams saw improvement.
The average decline was 22% in winning percentage, coupled with a 4% drop in ATS (Against The Spread).
Their combined ATS was just 44.7%, significantly below average The Score.
3. Contrast: Teams with Continuity
Teams with a returning starting quarterback and at least nine other offensive returning starters tend to improve by about 8% in winning percentage, with better ATS performance (~52.6%) The Score.
Likewise, stable setups — returning QB, same OC, and most offensive starters — yield even stronger benefits The Score.
Why the Combination of Inexperience & Disruption Is Risky
Offensive line experience is a key predictor of success, particularly in pass protection:
One study showed that offensive line experience explained 5–10% of the variation in yards per carry Mgoblog.
Experienced, cohesive lines also significantly reduce sack rates, giving the QB more time and increasing offensive efficiency Mgoblog.
In real-game examples, newly assembled lines with poor cohesion often struggle with fundamentals:
South Carolina’s line with three new starters and a center in a new position managed just 5.2 yards per play, and had under 30% rushing success – a clear sign of line dysfunction affecting the entire offense On3.