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Posts posted by MonkeyDoughnut
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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:
Step 1) Various schemes to further enrich Trump and his cronies.
Step 2) Various schemes to further concentrate wealth in the billionaire class.
Step 3) Fuck you, pay me.
In short, that is the only plan, there is zero plan to prevent an exploding deficit. Firing a few hundred million dollars worth of government employees who actually do things doesn't solve the deficit, and passing an additional multi-trillion dollar tax cut sure as shit doesn't solve it - it makes it massively worse.
Anyone who says or even thinks that Trump and the GQP give a single shit about the deficit or being fiscal conservatives should do the planet a favor and drink cyanide, because anyone that stupid should eliminated themself from the gene pool.
Anyone else besides GQP have a plan? Are there any options or are we just hoping for AI super-intelligence to save us?
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So in net we've increased tarrifs 10% on everyone and 100%+ on China and market is down <4%. He removes the China over and above tariff and net likely positive after increasing tariffs on everyone.... I don't expect that though so expect a slow decline for awhile.
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So what are the options to prevent the spectacular funding/deficit failure that we are quickly headed for currently?
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1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:
I don't get this angle. Who is going to replace the US as the global influencer? If China digs in they will be forced to devalue the yuan taking them out of the equation (again), their economy that just came of the brink of disaster is now again teetering on the brink and will blow up as these tariffs continue. Russia? nope. EU - nope?
I think China knows they have been boxed in and their only play is to try and save face. That is why there are concerns from surrounding countries that they are getting backed into a corner that only a war/conflct will get them out of.
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13 minutes ago, 'stache said:
Maybe a dumb question because it’s part of international relations and economics I’ve never understood, but if China really holds a big chunk of our national debt, could they call it just to fuck with dotard? Can they not so long Congress appropriates interest payments? If we did default or if they called it how could China ever force payment? Sheriff sale Florida?
depends what you call a big chunk, it's roughly 2.2% (7-800B) Significant because of size but not really percentage. They have been selling off yearly for years now at roughly $50-200B a year.
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17 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:
Some of the biggest market perma-bulls I follow are completely off the trump train the last 6 days. Dan Ives with Wedbush is the biggest tech/AI believer you will ever meet and he is downgrading all of his calls. He’s been long TSLA forever and cut his projection wildly this week. Tom Lee with fundstrat is a huge “AI is the 4th Industrial Revolution” guy and his firm put this out tonight:
Side note I chuckle as a bunch of AI pushers are upset their funds are negative for the year
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Doctor knew what he was doing, cheap bastard.. I'd have her get the IRS involved for screwing her over.... let him know you either pay it or you can pay the fines and your share.
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12 minutes ago, bolverk said:
Ten years ago, with TPP, we had a very good chance at decoupling less chaotically and building that alternative supply chain. That chance is over, and China's position vis-a-vis those countries who were part of that plan has only gotten stronger in the meantime.
With the impulsive and unpredictable nature of this trade war (which destroys trust) and the irrationally high tariffs placed on some of those trade partners (which punish them for trading with us), they really have nowhere else to turn but toward China.
I guess my thought is this isn't impulsive and is predictable and we should expect these tariffs with other countries to be worked out quickly, but we should expect the tarriffs with China to remain in place indefinitely. I'm trying to rationalize what that would mean for the markets this year and what it would mean in coming few years. Companies like AAPL and Nike... yeah they're screwed quickly. Who benefits quickly?
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48 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:
No they haven’t. Trump’s economic policy is coming from a loon who somehow has a degree from Harvard. They haven’t thought thru shit.
The entire US economy is built on the China supply chain. The amounts being handled elsewhere, like Vietnam, Mexico, etc is a pittance compared to China. While other countries can produce some goods cheaper than China, China has built a massive machine feeding the U.S. monster. It cannot be unwound in a few months. Period.
And the negotiating approach being used by Trump with China is fundamentally the wrong cultural approach, by a mile. The Chinese will just dig in even deeper.
I’ve written several posts about China elsewhere on the site, and there is only one way to deal with them. Build an entire alternative infrastructure elsewhere and then play them off against it mercilessly. But that takes a decade to build, and full government support. It ain’t happening.
The one good news is that the US doesn’t sell a lot into China and never will, so if they eventually cut them off it won’t be that painful for most US companies. For a minority it will hurt badly.Your points seem to support the approach the administration is taking as maybe the one of only ways to change the "partnership". ie. There isn't a great way, maybe ripping the bandaid off is the only way and we'll need the Chinese to dig their heels in to do it.
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2 hours ago, NoName said:
From Schmidt's last year at aggy .... from gigem247:
"It was believed that the run of injuries in 2021 was as much due to bad luck as anything else as I certainly haven't seen anything like it in my 50 years of following A&M football. Nonetheless, when strength and conditioning coach Jerry Schmidt returned to Oklahoma (he had been plucked from Norman by A&M boss Jimbo Fisher when he arrived in College Station), the Aggies elevated Brandon Sanders and brought on a couple of new faces on that front. There was a greater emphasis on conditioning and burst."
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2 hours ago, horn4life said:
Why would China give in? Xi doesn't have to explain that he wiped out a big chunk of retirement savings? There is a SHIT TON of profit made by the US selling China goods. Enitre US businesses are based on doing almost only that. Should the disappear? For the greater good?
If the administration thinks they can turn off the Chain Supply chain and not send the US to a deep recession, somebody has not done the math.
I think that is the calculation that has been made. Agree or disagree with it, I believe they will ride out the tariffs with China as they want to see the current relationship structure fundamentally changed. The Chinese haven't played fair for a long, long time so there will be initial pain but I don't believe a deep recession would result from the break (big, BIG assumption being that much of the other tariffs with other countries are ironed out). I think the goal is to not work out the tariff issues with China. I expect zero movement in that stance by both sides through the year.
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30 minutes ago, tokamak said:
Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.
Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.
With the way China has dug in, I don't see any indication that either side is going to budge anytime soon. Until that is settled and someone backs down I don't see things ending anytime soon.
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5 minutes ago, C-Man said:
A Vibrator, Huh? Let's See Your ID.
Sen. Angela Paxton, Ken Paxton's wife, continues the Republican war against masturbation.
https://www.dallasobserver.com/news/texas-lawmaker-wants-women-to-show-id-to-buy-sex-toys-22038057
She's going to run to replace Ken when he goes against Cornyn isn't she....
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Four years running on WR injury problems. That's has to be a little more than just bad luck going on. If I recall Clemson had high level of WR injuries when Venerables was there as well.
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8 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:
Aren’t we already taxing all imports from China at 54%? So 104%.
yeah, fighting a dick measuring contest with a "dic"tatorship is not something that ends well given we are the buyer / tariff payer in this conflict.
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just some funds manipulating the market... nothing to see here
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2 minutes ago, Captainant said:
I doubt there will be any course changes in the next week. Trump has been saying since before the election this was the plan. Dude has tied us all to the mast.
What's so crazy about this is all the useful idiots that didn't believe he would go through with it. "If" there's gonna be tariffs, right @Incredulity?
Agree, I don't see him changing course for months. I don't think he does anything until companies start laying off in mass.
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Fear will keep the decline moving until Trump shows some sign he might do something. He digs in and markets will force his hand.
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On 4/4/2025 at 12:16 PM, Rex Kramer said:
Ok, I caveated the fuck out of that post, Mr. Fake News.
The fundamentals don’t support crude being below $75. And that will only be more glaring as time goes on, unless Trump policies totally restrict global commerce. But you cannot discount the wild card that is this guy. He’s single-handedly fucked over the world and caused crude to be where it is. He’s a pretty powerful wild card. You can’t take my prediction out of context.
What fundamentals suggest crude should be above $75?
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From Jimbo hiring onward, who is on charge of A&M hiring? I can't think of a single good call hire they have made.
Must have hired Dewey Cheatem & Howe to run the show
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9 minutes ago, 'stache said:
If they get to Lutz I think he'll take the job. We're paying him $2.4M and as much as I'd like to give him some time to succeed I wouldn't match a $3M or higher offer from aggy even if he gave us a chance to match because he did struggle this year. I couldn't find what his buyout is but we paid WKU $2 million for him, surely our buyout for him is at least that, and I'd take the money and let him go. It's also just a better job at this point. For all of their failures aggy unquestionably has more money and resources. Apparently you only have to win like 5 conference games to make the tourney from SEC. He's from Texas and has no real connection to Oklahoma. If he's the guy though aggy is likely gonna be pissed, means they struck out on everyone with established P5 success. I'm torn how i'd feel if they hired Moser. It would be funny for ou to lose a coach to aggy but Moser isn't exactly lighting things up and mediocre ou is always entertaining.
Lutz is safe, aggies are poor and his buyout (reported 6.75M) makes it a non-starter
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aggies just haven't gotten to the point that Moses or McMillian is going to be their next coach.
I appreciate them thinking that they can pull OSUs Lutz but as much as "Lutz" and aggy belong together I don't think it will happen.
The Trump Economy
in Cloak Room
Posted
So history says we're doomed either way to drive off the cliff, no party has a plan.