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heso

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Everything posted by heso

  1. His podcast was a combination of mma discussion, comedians, and interesting experts interspersed with absurd conspiracy theorists. It was at times pretty entertaining. His opinions on pretty much everything except weed and standup comedy seem to be extremely malleable. He takes on the opinions of his guests. Early in the 2016 Dem primary he was an Andrew yang supporter and then Bernie. How he went from that to endorsing Trump is pretty crazy. Something related that I’ve spent some time thinking about is: how did the young male YouTube space become so right leaning in the run up to the 2024 election. I saw so many previously apolitical channels, across a wide spectrum, start espousing right wing talking points. And I found myself wondering what caused that shift and how much did it influence the election. Were they captured by the right wing propaganda machine? Did they sense that was what their audience wanted to hear? Was it a collective group think? Did it stem from a collective rejection of Covid policies they saw as government control? Were they all already right leaning and now just talking about it because it was an election cycle? Was it just YouTube’s algorithm feeding me right leaning political content?
  2. The pendulum will eventually stop swinging. The voters want populist policies. There will eventually be a realization that American politics has become a con game. At this point it might be more likely that the realization comes after the pendulum’s momentum can be stopped with votes. It usually takes bloodshed to stop it. Sometimes it takes guillotines. But at some point it will likely start to swing back. Either that or future historians will look back on the 20th century like the Islamic golden age. After the US has been carved up by corpo-religions with ai feeding the proletariat their favorite flavor of propaganda-porno-tainment.
  3. The source is the usgs website. Location accuracy is +/- 5 sec, so +/- 480 ft. Elevation accuracy is +/- 0.05 ft. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/USGS-08165500/#dataTypeId=continuous-00065--887047781&period=P7D
  4. The 1978 flood had water get to the dining hall but not inside the building and the camp was badly damaged. And in 1985 Tweety Eastman had to be airlifted out due to flood waters. So it sounds like it takes something closer to a 4-5% event to create a dangerous situation at the camp.
  5. 30.06993074, -99.3217122 altitude - 1722.82
  6. I’m a bit ignorant on the term 100 year flood or 500 year flood. How is that calculated? Because at least twice in the last 100 years camp mystic has had cabins lost to floods, another time cars got washed away and the camp was badly damaged, another time the guy’s pregnant wife had to be airlifted out. So clearly these aren’t 100 or 500 year events if they’re happening that often. I’ve been really reluctant to criticize Eastland because by almost all accounts he was a wonderful human. But Eastland, by his own admission, knew the risk the river posed. His repeated efforts to get and then replace a monitoring system show that he knew the camp was at risk. His comments about dangerous the river is over the years show that he knew it. He knew that not having any way to monitor the river left his camp vulnerable, but from the firsthand accounts, he was asleep until the NWS flood warning came in at 1am. Even after that warning came in firsthand accounts from his family say that they didn’t immediately evacuate to higher ground. Firsthand accounts from cabin counselors say that they were the ones that made the decision to evacuate once the water in the fucking cabins got too high for them to stay. Eastland’s own words: “I’m sure there will be other drownings,” Eastland said in a 1990 interview with the Austin American-Statesman. “People don’t heed the warnings.” He ignored them. The 6pm NWS bulletin said that more than 3” of rain PER HOUR was expected and dangerous flash floods were likely. The first flash flood warning just to the south at 11:40. The flood warning at 1:15 should have been his signal that it was time to move. At that point their response seems to be little more than what, hope the flood didn’t get worse? There is plenty of blame to go around for politicians and camp management both. But the idea that this was just some fluke, unforeseeable, unpredicted event is bullshit.
  7. Who is more upset that he called OSU’s stadium the big house, UM or OSU?
  8. I don’t think you have to take camp mystic out of the mix. A warning system that gives them even 30 minutes notice turns into hours downstream. This is 8100 ft upstream from camp mystic. As an absolute last resort a warning from this point could have given them 15 minutes notice that the flood was on their doorstep instead of realizing it’s already in the cabin. And this is 6.5 miles upstream. Perfectly reasonable place to collect usable data to provide advance notice of the impending flood. According to one article I saw the acting night watchman at the camp said he tried to check river water gauges and said several were broken or not returning data. The noaa website doesn’t show any active gauges on the south fork, so that may be true. All the more reason to take extra precautions. But also, if that is the case, it seems like it’d be known well in advance that there aren’t any functioning gauges on the south fork, so what is he checking for? But it’s 2025. How hard is it to figure out that if we get so many inches of rain in a given period the river is going to flood. My fucking dad can tell me right now how much rain fell at his house in the last hour in 15 minute increments without leaving his living room. All this to say, that it seems beyond negligent for a county that has thousands of kids camping and thousands more people living on a river that is known to have catastrophic floods to have never bothered to maintain a monitoring and warning system.
  9. You keep trying to make all natural disasters have similar safety plans. A flash flood isn’t a hurricane where you’ve got days notice to pack your shit and drive away because you need to avoid a 500 mile wide storm. It’s not the same as a tornado where you need to get into a solid internal structure because the building might collapse around you and you don’t know if it’s going to level your street or a few blocks over. It’s trying to not get fucking swept away by a river in a known location with little warning. You don’t have to drive 25 miles to get away from it. You have to get 50’ up hill as quickly as possible. The scenario where someone in Japonica Estates needs to avoid getting swept away by the river is the get in their car and drive or run 0.25 miles in either direction to the closest uphill road. They don’t need to make it out of the area, they need to get slightly uphill as fast as possible. You’re not driving around in it trying to go somewhere. You’re just trying to not be in the river.
  10. From the account I read, that seemed to be the closest point of relief after girls were already climbing out of cabin windows and had to cross various depths of water to get there. Most of them were trying to shelter in place on the top bunks until the water broke the door in and they had no choice but to find a way out.
  11. I kind of hate the feeling of estimating this since we have no idea what the situation on the ground was like that night. But looking at Google earth the bubble inn is 60 feet from a steep hill. The other close by cabins are closer to the hill. In a straight line the hill climbs 80 feet in 250 feet from the front door of the cabin. It looks like there is a path of some sort that climbs that hill. Even with pretty generous switchbacking it climbs the hill in 0.2 of a mile. I don’t know a damn thing about running a summer camp, and almost nothing about the Texas hill country, but it seems that if you’re going to have a camp in a designated floodway of one of the most flash flood prone areas in the world, you’d at least consider “if shit goes sideways, how much time do we need to get these kids up the hill?” It sure as shit seems to me that the protocol should have been “if we hear the (nonexistent) siren, we need to get these girls to high ground in <X minutes.” I have no clue what the situation on the ground was like that night. I don't know what time it started raining. I don’t know what the forecast was the day before. But if flash floods are a risk, if you have children sleeping in a floodway, and there is any rain in the forecast, how is the plan not put in place with escalations planned out. At minimum, the girls have their rain coats and shoes at the ready. Someone or more keeping close watch on the radar / weather alerts / upstream river gauges. Then if x amounts of rain falls or river level increases by x amount, we wake the girls in the lowlands and get them to a central location. If the alarm sounds we have X minutes to get to x height. There’s a good chance my math is wrong here, but if a flash flood wave is traveling at 9 ft/s, a warning gauge a mile and a half upstream would provide 15 minutes of warning that shit is about to absolutely hit the fan.
  12. I can’t believe we’re debating if sirens based on upstream water levels could have been effective at reducing the death toll. Take the account of the family from the TM article. They woke up to their house on stilts surrounded by water unable to leave the building. And then moments later it got ripped from its footing. You don’t think a siren would have warned them earlier? How much time would they have needed to not be in a house floating down the river? Would they have said “it’ll never make it up this high” and stayed? Maybe. But at least someone could have been awake and looking at the river before they were on an island. There have been so many accounts of people waking up to the room they are in full of water.
  13. One of the guys in my regular 4some changes putters more than any club in his bag trying to find something that works for him. Maybe a lab would help him, but I’m of the opinion that picking a putter and putting in some legitimate focused practice with it would help more than spending a bunch of money. But I’ve also never bought a putter. A friend of mine gave me a Cleveland copy of an 8802 that he found on the course that no one ever came back to claim. One year I was frustrated with my putter and was thinking about changing it, spent an hour or so at the practice green a couple times a week for a couple months and changed my approach to putting on the course, took my putting average from 37 to 32.
  14. I was very happy to see him miss the cut. There are so few courses that can punish the holes in his game because he can overpower almost any course. 2 rounds at Portrush and I won’t have to see him until next years masters. Now I just need YouTube’s algorithm to stop trying to get me to watch him.
  15. I wasn’t rooting for Spaun at the start of the day, but really impressive to grit through that start and have the resolve to push through the conditions after the restart while everyone else wilted.
  16. Burns should have stomped around like that in front of the rules officials if that’s accurate because his feet definitely weren’t splashing anything close to that.
  17. And just like that he’s in wet knee high fescue.
  18. But if we’re looking at a playoff tomorrow anyway because it’ll get dark, let’s make it a full 18.
  19. Rahm is in the clubhouse at +4 laughing his ass off.
  20. Wasn’t entirely serious with that question, but seeming more and more like gritting out even par would be a pretty good place to be.
  21. Announcer said they could absorb about a 2 hour delay. They’ll have been delayed for about 1:45 if they restart as expected.
  22. I’m not sure it’ll be that soon. I’m northwest of Oakmont and it’s still pouring here. The storm is moving kind of weird for the area where the overall storm is moving west to east but it’s spreading out east to west. 5 minutes before it started rainy here there was a less that 10% chance of rain. The radar is pretty unreliable right now.
  23. That’s a blink for everyone. No one wants to step up. Is the winner gonna be under par at this point?
  24. Bogey on 1 - drive it into the right rough, hacked 100 yards to the left rough, ran it on to the left side of the green, 30’ putt from the left fringe with 15 feet of break to 3’. Bogey on 2 was a perfect flighted sand wedge that hit the flag stick and rolled back 50 yards.
  25. Brutal for Spaun
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