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Poolflood

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Posts posted by Poolflood

  1. 1 minute ago, Poolflood said:

    The only reason they won 8 was their D.  I think their replacing 5.  Couple that with no D coordinator and a new  QB ( again) and not even getting to replace Slo will get them to 7 wins.

    They're * ya moron.

    • Hook 'Em 3
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  2. 1 hour ago, ATXhorn17 said:

    Mark it down: the wheels will fall off for Jimbo in 2022. Saban will be out for payback, and IMO the mid-tier SEC teams will all be improved. Arky and Ole Miss are solid. South Carolina is no longer a push-over—they will have Rattler and will play Aggy at home. Leach has proven he can beat Aggy nine times out of ten. Auburn should be better in year 2 of Harsin as well.

    After 2-3 losses before the mid season mark, Aggy’s “greatest class ever” will be exploring exit strategies.

    The only reason they won 8 was their D.  I think their replacing 5.  Couple that with no D coordinator and a new  QB ( again) and not even getting to replace Slo will get them to 7 wins.

  3. 32 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    "COVID-NET hospitalization data are preliminary and subject to change as more data become available. In particular, case counts and rates for recent hospital admissions are subject to lag. Lag for COVID-NET case identification and reporting might increase around holidays or during periods of increased hospital utilization. As data are received each week, prior case counts and rates are updated accordingly."

    Basically, you're likely to have incomplete data for the more recent periods. These sort of trackers tend to always show a downturn for the most recent periods as a result. It gets revised upwards as more data comes in. 

    Wow - 
    Starting MMWR week 48, MD data are temporarily removed from weekly rate calculations.

    or put that they pulled a chunk of data out and left a footnote, in bold, that I missed.  

     

  4. 4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    "COVID-NET hospitalization data are preliminary and subject to change as more data become available. In particular, case counts and rates for recent hospital admissions are subject to lag. Lag for COVID-NET case identification and reporting might increase around holidays or during periods of increased hospital utilization. As data are received each week, prior case counts and rates are updated accordingly."

    Basically, you're likely to have incomplete data for the more recent periods. These sort of trackers tend to always show a downturn for the most recent periods as a result. It gets revised upwards as more data comes in. 

    Thanks.  Seems to be a massive data lag esp considering they're both from the same website.  

  5. 3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Is English not your first language?  I quoted this statement that you made:

    "There's no guarantee he'll get the virus and if he does hospitalizations for that age group are small."

     

    You don't have that data.  You have no idea if hospitalization rates for that portion of elderly people WHO HAVE COVID are small.  Just stop this absurdity.

    Yes.  Now show me that the hospitalization rate.  Make a back of the envelope calculation.  

  6. 38 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    How do you know this?  What data are you using to support that assertion?

    I've shown you mine, you show me yours.  My original post responded regarding a covid free 75 yr old.  You can assume he's going to get, but we're not there yet.  Of course he would be safer with a booster.  But I was talking about the case at hand.

  7. 10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Ugh.  16 out of every 100,000 people in that age group are hospitalized, NOT 16 out of every 100,000 people in that age group who have covid.

     

    8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    You're making the same mistake. That isn't what those stats mean. Read my posts. 

    I responded to original post about a parent's stubbornness.  There's no guarantee he'll get the virus and if he does hospitalizations for that age group are small.

     

  8. 1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

    I'm pointing out that you aren't understanding the data. You're confusing data on prevalence with data regarding the chance that an infection requires hospitalization. You can't get what you're looking for by dividing hospitalizations by the entire population (regardless of infection). You need to divide hospitalizations by number of infections. Because of that mistake, you're underestimating the chances of hospitalization. 

    Hopefully it is still relatively low for an elderly gentleman with a single dose of J&J and infected with Omicron. But relatively low here means less than a 5% chance not the .04% chance you suggested earlier. 

    I made some generalizations.   But 5% for a 75 yr old even with comorbidities doesn't seem supported.   That 75 year old is in the 75-84 year olds.  Current 7 day average is 16 in 100,000.  

  9. 18 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Again, you don't understand what numbers you're looking at. You'd need to look at hospitalizations over cases. You're looking at hospitalizations over the whole population.

    And, yes, Omicron has been less severe, although the data are mixed as whether that is just because folks are vaccinated or previously infected as opposed to any reduction in severity for the newly infected. 

    I'm not sure what you're arguing?  Do you?

  10. 15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    Yes, it's rates for the population, as in the percentage of folks in that age group currently hospitalized for covid. It provides weekly numbers so that you can identify surges in infections. It doesn't mean that if you get infected you have that percentage chance of needing to be hospitalized. That number is a lot higher. You're misunderstanding the data.

    So bookman's dad is part of the population.  High estimate of hospitalization?  1%? 4%?

  11. 32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Looks to me that the most recent weekly hospitalization rate for 75-84 is 16+ per 100,000.  The cumulative hospitalization rate is over 2,500 per 100,000.

    I assumed a lag for recent data - hence the 4/10,000 from a month ago.  If you go with cumulative wouldn't that skew number as the original virus and delta hit the elderly harder?  

  12. 12 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    You understand that those aren't rates per infection but rather the ratio of hospitalizations over the entire population? The rates for infection are a lot higher. 

    The data you are looking at are designed to identify surges, not calculate severity of infections. 

    I believe it's rate of hospitalizations for that age group.  And it's significantly "better" to get omicron than delta for that age group as hospitalizations are a smaller percentage. 

     

  13. 5 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

    He pointed out that j&j single vaccine was the only one he had taken, and that it had proven to be the least effective overall. Also indicated his age and comorbitities. You essentially responded “meh fuck it, nbd. Don’t trust the cdc.”  Forgive us if we are wary of this disingenuous schlock. 

    I didn't mean to come across as flippant.  

  14. 2 minutes ago, tigol said:

    No.

    Oh, well there you go!  Look my dad's about the same age.  He's been triple vaxed and in generally good health but I certainly worry about him.  If you have different statistics I would like to see them.

  15. 9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    I think you're really bad at math and/or statistics. Or maybe less than 100,000 have been hospitalized in the US and 800,000 haven't died. 

    Well it is on the high side for CDC data.  But who trusts those fuckers - amiright?  

  16. 15 minutes ago, Bookman said:

    He's 75, obese, and a big Trumper/Fox News watcher. It took me months to convince him that Covid isn't a hoax. I think he only got the J&J vaccine to shut me up. I don't know if there's anything more I can say. 

    I simply don't understand taking an unnecessary risk due to pride. 

    He's probably right.  If you lump him into the 75-85 group current hospitalizations are at like 4/10,000.

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