Posts posted by bschoolprof
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There’s been lots of talk on pay sites about how predictable our offense is and how they tip run vs pass by alignment. OB asked some “sources” inside the program about this and below was the response. It’s probably 995 clickbait, but smacks so much of Herman’s arrogance to maybe be true.
QuoteOccasionally, the demand for answers from our community is so overwhelming, hard questions need to be asked.
Alex Dunlap recently analyzed the Longhorn offense, and came to the conclusion that Texas was tipping its plays. It was a fascinating analysis by Dunlap. It was one of Dunlap’s most enlightening Deep Digs.
Initially, I was content with Dunlap’s insight. However, Longhorn fans wanted feedback from folks inside the building. After declining to ask questions about another reporter’s research, which can create a slippery slope if you want to challenge Texas football coach Tom Herman’s play-calling at a press conference without having your ducks in a row for his inevitable rebuttal, I eventually agreed with the masses. Somebody had to do some digging, and I had to pick the brains of multiple sources this week.
As a warning, some of you may not like what I uncovered, and my only request is you keep the profanity to a minimum.
If you missed Dunlap’s initial article, now would be a great time for a review.
“There were 73 plays versus TCU where a running back was lined up somewhere in the backfield alongside Ehlinger. On 31 of those plays, the running back was clearly lined up "behind" him, meaning either in pistol, or in a fashion to where, if looking from the sideline directly down the yard marker, one player would not block your view of the other. If it would, that was considered an "even" or staggered alignment. All things very easy for the eyeballs to gauge from the defensive side of the football, thanks to the miracles of human depth perception and natural visual acuity. There were 42 snaps where the running back was lined up alongside Ehlinger, or just ever-so-slightly staggered, as described above.
“Of the 31 times the running back was lined up clearly behind Ehlinger, Texas ran the football 23 times, or 74% of the time.
“Of the 42 times the running back lined up at an equivalent or slightly staggered depth to Ehlinger, Texas dropped back to throw the football in all but one of those instances where Roschon Johnson was handed the football coming directly across Ehlinger's body on a relatively rare outside-zone call.
“For Patterson and his defense's sake, they could basically depend on this pre-snap, run-versus-pass read like clockwork.”
I wanted to get the general opinions of Dunlap’s assessment, and if there was any concern about the Texas offense tipping its plays. As expected, I was questioned about Dunlap’s football background. Once we got past that part of the conversations, I received a very interesting explanation.
From what I was told, a member of Herman’s support staff must self-scout the Longhorns and look for tendencies every week. That person reviews the game film, without the benefit of knowing what plays are being called, and he charts the propensities from each game.
According to one source, there are tendencies in a shotgun offense. Those tendencies are not limited to depth and width of a running back, but where he aligns in relation to the tight end (opposite and same side). The person in charge of that self-scouting aspect writes down everything he sees and presents his findings to the football staff on Mondays.
Dunlap said, “of the 31 times the running back was lined up clearly behind Ehlinger, Texas ran the football 23 times, or 74% of the time.”
That number is not high enough to create too many concerns behind closed doors.
I was told the Longhorn staff only worries about that number when it approaches at least 90 percent. When that number is somewhere between 90 and 95 percent, they will put in a few new wrinkles on offense to decrease that number.
The people I spoke to do not believe opposing teams will game-plan anything off a 70 percent predictability number. As it was explained to me, an opposing team might have an idea what is coming seven out of 10 times. However, that team is not willing to risk giving up a touchdown on the other three plays when the unexpected occurs.
In addition, I learned there is pride in the building about being able to impose their will.
One source noted that Texas’ offense is ranked fourth in the country with a 53.7 percent passing completion rate.
“You know what is?” the source said. “It is because Tom’s offense knows how to impose their f-ing will on other teams. That’s why. They do the same thing over and over again on third-down. Why? Because it works.”
Dunlap’s original researching was definitely enlightening.
Nevertheless, you also know why nobody associated with the program is concerned about tipping plays. -
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1 minute ago, irishtexan said:
OK. Does anyone have a link to an article on Reed's shady past that doesn't come from a chat board?
I've tried, but no dice. The author of that site claims he got the info by going to the bastrop courthouse and reading testimony from the punishment phase of the trial. The past acts were apparently kept out of the guilt/innocence phase due to them being potentially prejudicial. The state repeats these allegations in later court filings, so I don't doubt that witnesses testified to these acts in the proceedings.
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39 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:
You writing it like this tells me everything I need to know of your motivations and bias here.
This was copied over from the scat site and is missing context. Reed's story in both trials was that the affairs had to be kept "secret" due to racial prejudice. He brought race into the mix. My point in highlighting the other victim's race was to point out the pattern of his excuses and preposterous nature of his defense: that two women with which he was having affairs, both of which were kept secret due to racism, just happened to end up victimized soon after he was intimate with them. If you believe that, then you're even more of a moron than your coming across on this thread.
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I'm not sure I understand what is going on w/ Abbott's army. They moved these people out from under 290 (and other areas) and cleaned out all their shit.
What's changed to prevent them from just coming back to set up shop in the same place? Isn't that still legal under Austin's ordinance? I may be missing something.
Signs. -
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29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:
Just for illustrative purposes, this document is the type that is discussed in post 11 as being drafted by the prosecution and adopted, in most cases wholly, by the trial court judge.
To a certain extent, having the winner draft the findings and conclusions makes sense. In federal court, when there's a bench civil trial, both parties draft their own findings and conclusions and submit them to the court. The judge goes over them and picks and chooses the ones that supports his ultimate ruling, and usually adds a few of his own. That seems pretty fair.
In this context, though, it happens after a jury's verdict and explains why the judge denies a new trial, usually after it is denied. That they are adopted wholesale is disturbing but not terribly surprising. Even when only the winner drafts, it doesn't necessarily behoove them to "overdo it" for appeals purposes. But it's a little stinky because a sharp prosecutor can draft them to resist appellate review.
The counter to all this hand-wringing about refusing to do a relatively small thing like review DNA evidence is that once you rule that it's permissible in this case, then it opens up a couple of hundred others to similar review, whether really warranted or not. It's an unsatisfactory explanation in this context, when a man's life is on the line, but it's a real problem for those who work in the trenches.
This is information only. I don't support doing one thing or the other. Refusing to review everything when a man is scheduled to be executed makes me queasy though, no question there.
Even if that happened in this case, the court's summary of what was testified to during the hearing is what is really important in my opinion, and it squares with the press coverage at the time. The supposed smoking gun that Fennel said he was out drinking and came home later than he initially said turned out to be unsupported under cross. The ME testimony about time of death was one (famous) Dr's opinion and he agreed on the stand with the general view that there's really no reliable way to estimate time of death. It's largely guesswork. I personally don't put much stock in either's side medical testimony about time of death. There's far more compelling circumstantial evidence that she was killed on her way to work in the early morning hours. The ME testimony in that regard - which is just guesswork anyway - isn't really that important in my view.
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1) I've followed this case closely for many years. Reed is guilty as fuck IMO. Here's what I wrote on the scat site several years ago, with archived links:
QuoteIf you haven't followed this case over the years, here are some things you might want to know before you jump on the "he's innocent" bandwagon.
1) Reed was accused in 1987 of raping a young white woman in Wichita Falls. He used the same defense he used in the Stites case - it was a secret affair that no one knew about because of the racial element. He was acquitted in that case.
https://web.archive.org/web/20150101015116/http://news.yahoo.com/justices-consider-texas-rape-murder-case-190605509.html
In the Stites case, the jury didn't buy it. If Reed is telling the truth, this would be an amazing, nearly impossible, coincidence.
2) Immediately after the murder, police considered her fiance (the cop) the prime suspect and they investigated him for months. One big problem was finding evidence to indicate how he could have pulled it off logistically. Stacy usually took her fiance's truck to work around 3:00 am (she worked at HEB). She was found in her HEB uniform, indicating she was likely on her way to work when she was killed. The truck was dumped in a high school parking lot in Bastrop, about 25 miles from her apartment she shared with her fiance, which was right above her mother’s apartment. The truck was found about 5:30 am by a patrol officer and it was not in the parking lot on his prior two patrols through the lot on his graveyard shift that night/morning.
The fiance had no other known mode of transportation that night other than his truck. If he killed her he would have had to dump his truck at the high school (which was about half a mile from where Reed lived), then either walked about 25 or 30 miles back to his apartment or gotten a ride from a conspirator. The fiance was seen by Stacy’s mother at his apartment at 6:45 am. She called him to let him know Stacy had not shown up at work, and after he came downstairs, Mom stated he looked like he had just woken up.
3) How did Reed become a suspect? A few months after the Stites murder, a young woman was abducted late at night from a quick mart by a black male. He asked for a ride, the victim gave him one, he had her drive him to a remote area, demanded sex, they struggled violently, and she escaped, as did the rapist.
Police suspected Reed because he was known to frequent this quick mart and the general area late at night (he was also a drug dealer and had several past brushes with the law). However, this quick mart was on Stites’ route to work and the MO raised eyebrows, so on a hunch police checked to see if there was a DNA match between Reed and the Stites case. Reed’s DNA was already on file – that’s how the DNA match came about.
Why was his DNA on file, you might wonder? From ANOTHER recent rape allegation, this time from his ex-girlfriend. During the punishment phase of his trial, DNA linked him to a cold case rape and several women came forward and accused Reed of rape.
You can read more here:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160313052954/http://staceystites.com/reed_opinion_2000.pdf
http://www.michaelcorcoran.net/archives/3005
https://scholar.google.com/scholar_c...en&as_sdt=6,442) Many of the latest allegations repeated in press stories about Fennel's alibi and ME testimony about time of death were heard by the trial court, where cross-examination was allowed, in 2017. You can read the judge's opinion here: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4345166/Rodney-Reed-Shaver-Findings.pdf. He did not find this evidence compelling (I did not either).
3) The latest allegation - that Fennel confessed to some white supremacist dude in a prison yard - sounds like complete horseshit, but would be another in a long chain of complete horseshit witnesses that have been paraded around by Reed's team as evidence he didn't do it.
4) Testing the belt for DNA will not be dispositive in any way. If Reed's DNA is found, his team will just say "of course, they were having a secret affair!!"
5) Rodney Reed is the not the hill you want to die on to prove the system fucked over an innocent guy. Find another case - there are plenty.
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I was on campus yesterday and stopped by for a few innings. We were playing Temple JC, which was the 2nd game. I don't know the outcome of either game. It was 2-0 Texas when I left.
We had O'Leary on the mound and she looked solid. I did notice Corona at 3rd (she is tiny). She had a great putout, but also maybe had an error (don't know how they scored it). Sullivan hit a dinger to straight away center, so it looks like she may help us out in the power department. We were sorely lacking in that last year.
It will be interesting to see what the lineups look like today.
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10 hours ago, longhornmatt said:
Our offense is generally pretty good, despite the personnel decisions probably limiting us from reaching our potential. Our defense and special teams are not just bad, but historically bad, and not just in school history but for college football in general. That level of incompetence is completely inexcusable from the staff. Major changes are necessary, and it would be gross negligence for management not to make changes given that level of underperformance.
Gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you there, Bob. We're a good offense if we are playing teams with terrible defenses. Against good defenses, however, we go in turtle mode and shit the bed. We seemingly have 2-3 running plays and 2-3 route combinations. If good DC has a wrinkle (a line stunt, WTF is that!!???) or makes an adjustment after halftime, we have no answer. We're mediocre at best on offense.
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Rodney Reed denied DNA testing
in Daily Texan
useful idiots.
Who needs facts when you've got online petitions, celebrity tweets, and one-sided podcasts/documentaries? It's the age we live in.