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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

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Posts posted by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

  1. Someone pointed out to me that Raiders of the lost Ark would have turned out the exact same without Indiana Jones at all. It bugged the hell out of me. It occurred to me this morning with the same is true about Inglourious Basterds. Shoshana had the Nazis taken care of. 

  2. On 2/5/2020 at 4:35 PM, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

    time for me to start putting money somewhere.  my current plan is to just open a vanguard account and buy some ETFs that track the indexes and start my learning that way.  good idea?

    don't want to flash my wad, but since this post, *somebody* is sitting on an extra $39.80.

  3. 1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

    That doesn't really pass a sanity check.

    The US hasn't hit 60 percent turnout in over 50 years. It's only happened five times since 1900, all in the 50's-60's. 70 percent turnout wouldn't be uncharted territory, it'd be off the edge of the Earth. There were 136.6mm votes cast for POTUS in 2016 per the FEC official results. A 21mm vote increase would be 157mm. What you described would be a massively bigger increase than between any two consecutive elections and bigger than the increase from 2004 to 2016. Come on.

    As for TX, per the SOS office, turnout in 2016 was essentially identical to 2008 (59.5 to 59.3 percent) in terms of registered voters and about one percentage point higher in 2016 (46% to 45%) in terms of voting age population. So it isn't like there is a bunch of low hanging fruit there, proportionally speaking. There were 8.9mm votes in 2016, meaning 11mm represents about a 22 percent increase in the electorate when the VAP has increased by about 11 percent since 2019, per the SOS. Statewide, there were about 950k more registered voters in November 2019 than in 2016. Let's assume we add 1mm registered voters in a year (after adding less in three years, including spirited registration efforts in 2018). 11mm votes in 2020 is basically assuming that every newly registered voter actually votes in 2020. Come on.

    I'd love to be wrong but what you're projecting is really wild relative to even the most recent elections. I know I've replied to your posts before so I'll stop dogging you for it, but know that it's a pie in the sky, actual legitimate revolution type number relative to current American voting behavior.

    150MM+ nationwide won’t happen, but a big Texas jump will.  It’s suddenly competitive for the first time in decades in an era when the desire to vote in general has gone up.  That’ll drive up interest.  
     

    it won’t be comparable to the midterm jump, but only because that borders on mathematically impossible. But the same fire that drove turnout then is still going.   https://www.texastribune.org/2018/11/07/texas-election-results-turnout-county-look-up/

  4. 18 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

     

    Real smart of Ducey to pick the lady who already lost a senate race as a replacement.

    it had a 'it's her turn' vibe to the appointment.  not great.

     

    22 hours ago, Calihorn said:

    Be sure to choke on a cock on the way out Susan

     

    I honestly can't believe it is this close.

  5. Quote

    A slight majority of all Texas voters — 52% — said they would not vote to reelect President Donald Trump in November. Republicans remain solidly in his corner: 90% said they would vote to reelect Trump, including 80% who said they “definitely” would do so. Democrats feel just as strongly: 93% said they would not vote for the president’s reelection, including 88% who would “definitely not” vote for him. Independent voters were against reelection, but less so: 38% said they would vote to reelect Trump, while 62% said they would vote against him.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2020/02/14/bernie-sanders-leading-texas-ahead-super-tuesday-uttt-poll-says/

  6. 24 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

    Every single other Senator voted yes. Western and Midwestern States that are now part of the GOP firewall weren't so red back then.  They also didn't have a slavery, segregationist, and Jim Crow legacy they were trying to defend. 

    Civil Rights Act was almost the same although it had more no votes. 

    If you held the votes again now, I bet neither would pass. Those same Western and Midwestern states jumped right into "they're taking our jobs" rhetoric.  We are in the midst of a backslide. 

    that's amazing.

    https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/89-1965/s78

    Quote
    Vote State Party Representative
    Nay AL   D   Hill, Joseph
    Nay AL   D   Sparkman, John
    Nay AR   D   Fulbright, James
    Nay AR   D   McClellan, John
    Nay FL   D   Holland, Spessard
    Nay FL   D   Smathers, George
    Nay GA   D   Russell, Richard
    Vote State Party Representative
    Nay GA   D   Talmadge, Herman
    Nay LA   D   Ellender, Allen
    Nay LA   D   Long, Russell
    Nay MS   D   Eastland, James
    Nay MS   D   Stennis, John
    Nay NC   D   Ervin, Samuel
    Nay NC   D   Jordan, Benjamin
    Vote State Party Representative
    Nay SC   D   Russell, Donald
    Nay SC   R   Thurmond, Strom
    Nay TX   R   Tower, John
    Nay VA   D   Byrd, Harry
    Nay VA   D   Robertson, Absalom

    literally the exact confederacy voted no, the exact non confederacy voted yes, minus Texas's Yarborough.

  7. In some ways it amazes me the VRA was ever passed.  I remember on of the civil rights acts a Texas Senator was the only “confederate” Senator that voted yes.  I’m sure that’s probably true with all the civil rights era laws. There must have been uniform support for them outside the confederacy, even the states that are ruby red today to overwhelm the confederate stonewalling of them. 

  8. 2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

    A question for the group:
    Does the potential exist for someone to run for president who is as bad or worse than Donald Trump?

    I'm not even trying to say those things are true of Bloomberg, I'm just wondering if it's even a possibility in your collective mindspace.

    If you actively selected for it, yes.  Maybe someone like Harvey Weinstein.  But if you took 1000 random names out of the phonebook, I'm convinced Trump would literally be the worst.

  9. 1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

    If she can win suburban districts like Williamson County while at the same time limiting her loss margin in smaller towns like those in Bell County, then she has a shot.  And that's exactly what she did in 2018.

    Beto's run made me think rural Texas is just unconvinceable.  He went to every county, shook more hands than anyone, held town halls in every Vega Mineola Bangs there is, and improved by 1% over Hillary's numbers.

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