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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

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Posts posted by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

  1. 2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

     

    A case of double short coat tails there.  The president is not pulling up his senator, and the senator can't drive turnout for the president.  That's a big deal in a state right on the margins like NC.

  2. 3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

     

    The whole article is good.  Howeva, I went there just so I can see more about that chart to see which states each of those dots represent and they don't tell you.  Seems like that is a bit of important information.  Is that -10 one AR?  Well, I don't really care.  Is it OH? That's a bigger deal.

     

    Quote

    Editor’s note: The Economist is making some of its most important coverage of the covid-19 pandemic freely available to readers of The Economist Today, our daily newsletter. To receive it, register here. For our coronavirus tracker and more coverage, see our hub

    You would think that everything about this year’s presidential election has changed over the past month. With coronavirus sweeping the country, President Donald Trump suggesting that Americans might want to disinfect their veins and Joe Biden going underground, such an assumption would appear reasonable.

     

    State-level political polls, which are known to oscillate wildly from day to day, show the former vice-president gaining a lot of ground in recent weeks. Yet there is actually little evidence that the picture has changed at all since February. Mr Trump’s approval ratings are exactly where they were when the outbreak of covid-19 began. Properly weighted public opinion polls that account for interviewees’ political affiliations reveal that Mr Biden holds just the same lead over the president as he did back in March.

    Mr Biden looks a bit stronger than that slight edge would imply. The former vice-president is polling better than Hillary Clinton did where it matters most: among white voters in the Midwest, who have outsize importance in the electoral college. Though he is losing ground with non-whites and younger voters, their distribution across the country gives them less influence in presidential elections than they ought to have. The sudden economic slump has also affected Mr Trump’s re-election odds, though less than you might think. As a result, Mr Biden starts the campaign ahead of Mr Trump.

    20200502_USM900.png

    To gauge the candidates’ strengths with a variety of demographic groups, The Economist used a statistical technique called “multilevel regression and poststratification” (mrp) that takes raw survey data collected by YouGov, a pollster, and produces finely-detailed predictions for many different types of voters. We know how white women with a college degree lean Democratic, for example, and how white Christian men from Michigan tend to vote for Republicans. And since we also know how many people of each type live in each state, we can estimate how the race would play out if the election were held today.

    This method is not unlike the one used by Simulmatics Corporation, which in 1960 fed a primitive computer decades’ worth of polls from George Gallup and Elmer Roper to advise Kennedy on a winning strategy. The scientists behind Simulmatics made predictions for 480 types of voters. Based on data about nearly 9,000 voters collected by YouGov in March and April, we have made predictions for over 380,000 types, one for each combination of nine different demographic and geographical factors.

    Our mrp model tells us both whether people are likely to vote, and who they will support if they do. Our method adjusts for many of the factors that increase the variance of live-caller polls, chiefly by ensuring a balanced sample of Democrats, Republicans and independents in each state. Perhaps most important, mrp allows us to fill in the blanks where public polling is scarce, which was a big problem when handicapping the 2016 election.

    20200502_USC392.png

    Currently our model estimates that 41% of whites who cast ballots would vote for Mr Biden if the election were held today, whereas 51% say they will cast their lot for Mr Trump—a ten-percentage-point margin. In 2016 Mrs Clinton lost this group by 15 points. Mr Biden has improved his standing both among whites who have college degrees and the ever-watched group of those who do not. He polls four and six percentage points better than Mrs Clinton did among each group, respectively. Mr Biden is currently polling 11 points better than Mrs Clinton in states where working-class white voters make up the largest share of the electorate, and he is performing roughly six points worse in those states where they are the lowest share (see chart).

    That improvement has a disproportionate effect on Mr Biden’s chances of victory. Whereas Mrs Clinton lost the election by small margins in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, we find Mr Biden with a slight lead in all three. He is also likely to beat Mrs Clinton’s margin in Arizona, which is likelier than any of the midwestern battlegrounds to tip the election.

    That is despite Mr Biden faring relatively poorly with non-white voters and with younger ones. YouGov’s data suggest that African-Americans favour Mr Biden over Mr Trump by a 72-percentage-point margin. That sounds impressive—yet Mrs Clinton won the same group by 80 points. Hispanics, too, have shifted away from the Democrats. Whereas Mrs Clinton won them by 38 points, they now say they will vote for Mr Biden by 28. In other words, Mr Trump is polling a bit better with blacks and Hispanics than he did last time round.

    Young voters, a large majority of whom are Democrats, are also less likely to support the vice-president than they were to back Mrs Clinton. But the majority of eligible voters younger than 30 do not typically vote: only 43% of them showed up to the polls in 2016, based on numbers from the Census Bureau. And even though YouGov’s data suggest nearly 70% of all eligible adults will vote in November, the model expects only 53% of voters under the age of 30 to do so. Young people are also concentrated in the safest Democratic states, so are unlikely to have a large sway over the election. Thus Mr Biden can prosper despite a relatively weak performance among the Democratic Party’s core constituencies, because the electoral college makes them less important than they would be if the presidency were decided by a popular vote.

     

    Guessing now how things will be in November is hard, for obvious reasons. In the past, one of the best predictors of a president’s chances has been the state of the economy. Today, after a 4.8% decline in gdp (at an annual rate) in the first quarter, any model that puts weight on that correlation predicts a blowout Biden win. Yet thanks to political polarisation, most voters no longer blame (or reward) the president for economic conditions.

    The biggest constant since 2016 is that Mr Trump has retained his relative advantage in the electoral college. Because rural states both lean Republican and are rewarded with a disproportionately large number of votes, the deck is stacked in his favour. According to our mrp estimates, the president could lose the popular vote by two-to-three percentage points and still win the majority of electoral-college votes. His path to victory again runs through the Midwest, though he has added Minnesota and New Hampshire to his list of heavily working-class states that could flip from Democratic in 2016 to Republican in 2020.

    That scenario looks unlikely at the moment, however. After all the fancy maths, six months before the election, Mr Biden is six points ahead of Mr Trump. If the vote were held today he would probably win.

     

  3. 10 hours ago, Irieguy said:

    False. Democrats dominate absentee voting. It’s not an anomaly and Democrats will continue to win the vast majority of late-decided elections(especially in California). Thank God. 

    Late decided meaning things that weren't set in stone heading into election day.  Not late decided as in when the ballot actually arrived.  13 Ds were able to *just* successfully get over the line for a flip (compared to 1 R flip).   All well within the margins of what might happen given the winds on any particular election day in something as small as a congressional district.  89 races were within 10%. Seems like that is a bit of a statistical fluke that there would be that many and one party benefited disproportionately from it. Compare to say 2016, when there were only three flips nationwide of the size of margins below, 2 D and 1 R, and only 32 races nationwide within 10%.  I think there needs to be some mental preparations that these aren't exactly Sheila Jackson Lee locked-down districts and some are just going to be lost because shit happens sometimes.

     

    Quote
    District Winner Margin
    Georgia 7th Republican 0.15%
    Utah 4th Democratic (flip) 0.26%
    North Carolina 9th Republican 0.32%
    New York 27th Republican 0.38%
    Texas 23rd Republican 0.43%
    Minnesota 1st Republican (flip) 0.45%
    California 21st Democratic (flip) 0.74%
    Illinois 13th Republican 0.76%
    Kansas 2nd Republican 0.85%
    Georgia 6th Democratic (flip) 1.03%
    Maine 2nd Democratic (flip) 1.24%
    New Jersey 3rd Democratic (flip) 1.29%
    South Carolina 1st Democratic (flip) 1.39%
    Oklahoma 5th Democratic (flip) 1.40%
    Florida 26th Democratic (flip) 1.75%
    New York 22nd Democratic (flip) 1.78%
    New Mexico 2nd Democratic (flip) 1.87%
    Virginia 7th Democratic (flip) 1.94%
    Nebraska 2nd Republican 1.99%
    Iowa 3rd Democratic (flip) 2.16%
    Virginia 2nd Democratic (flip) 2.24%

     

  4. 2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

    link is live, not too many comments yet, so you should be able to ask her something and hopefully have it addressed
     

    I'm a big believer in turnout is everything (informed by watching Beto -- a D can go and talk to every single person in Texas that lives outside of a town of 100,000, and you'll pick up about a half dozen votes), so I asked about that issue, and she responded twice.  She even cussed!

     

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    level 1

    Are you going to try to tailor your positions to reach the people in between Dallas and Austin or just try to pump up the numbers as much as possible in the dark blue areas?

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    I'm talking to everybody and showing up everywhere (or at least before sheltering-in-place orders). And that means there are different issues that are important in different areas of this district. Healthcare as a right is universal across the district. But you also have Clean Water issues in Johnson County, where the Louis Vuitton plant is discharging its proprietary chemicals into the water system that eventually makes its way to the drinking supply. In Burnet County, it's Clean Air, where a rock crushing plant is releasing silica into the air, which is a harmful inhalant. In Hays County, the Kinder Morgan pipeline is claiming eminent domain to cut through acre-after-acre of private property for the natural gas pipeline that connects the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. High speed internet doesn't exist in many parts of this district. So I'm not sure if that quite answered your question, but it is indeed helpful to know what affects all the communities that make up TX-25.

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    Really proud that we've thrown out the playbook that says you have to slice and dice the electorate and carefully craft your message with some poll-driven, watered down wishy washy position that people will recognize as bullshit from a mile away.

    For the last 3 years we've been barnstorming all over this district, into all 13 counties, no matter how red or blue or urban or rural, and showing up and listening to the people there about what *they* want to see for the future of Texas and this country.

    And the responses are not so different than you would think.

    These are my beliefs -- that every single person deserves to be able to make enough to support themselves and their family, that we should ensure that every person in this country has healthcare, that climate change is an existential threat and we can face it at the scale required, and that working people have been left out of our democracy for too long.

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  5. 12 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

    Democrats will gain numbers in the house, will easily win the presidency, and will either take over the Senate in a close race or win it fairly easily. 

    Even the Republicans who are still smart know this now. The trumplicans will continue to live in denial until the bitter end, just like dear leader.

    The Republican Party, if it somehow survives this, will not see the house again for another 50 years. 

    One thing to remember is how it seemed like every single late-decided house election in 2018 went the Democrats way. At some point simple statistical likelihood is just going to catch up and some of those seats will move back to the R column.

  6. Here's the answer.  Just unbelievable.

     

    2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                                                                   WHITE........
                                                                   4 YR COLL DEG
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
     
    Biden                46%     7%    91%    44%    41%    51%    51%    35%
    Trump                42     89      4     37     47     38     40     58
    SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      -      1      5      3      2      2      2
    WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      -      5      3      2      -      2
    DK/NA                 7      3      4      9      6      7      6      3
     
                         AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                         18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
     
    Biden                50%    40%    43%    52%    36%    45%    40%    73%    46%
    Trump                31     44     48     42     57     47     52      8     38
    SMONE ELSE(VOL)       8      2      2      1      3      2      2      5      3
    WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      1      1      2      1      1      1      5
    DK/NA                 8     10      6      5      3      5      4     12      8
     
  7. 6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

    I don't know what changed, honestly. I don't get why you, @Brisketexan and @Ghost of LL changed. I mean, I sort of do, but what the GOP has produced in terms of results hasn't really gotten worse in the last 25 years. Trump's just taken terrible government in new directions and added Worst Head of State in American History to the trophy case. 

    I get what the appeal was supposed to be, but the product always sucked. It's like you kept buying Volkswagons for decades, thinking that they were actually really reliable and that a combination of your mechanic and other drivers were the problem. What was the moment when the light came on?
     

    70% top marginal tax rates aren't cool, either, and you can coast on getting rid of that for a long time.

  8. 4 hours ago, EMAWesome said:

    spacer.png

    what percent of republicans are republican just because they have no idea of what is going on around them, do you think?

     

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/493182-rules-chairman-advises-pelosi-to-back-remove-voting

    Quote

    Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday endorsed a proposal by Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern (D-Mass.) that would allow House lawmakers to vote remotely during the coronavirus crisis.

    “We don’t know how long this pandemic will threaten public health, or how long state stay at home orders will last. We all know, though, that Congress needs to be working, whether in person, remotely, or both,” McGovern said in a statement. 

    The Speaker’s office forwarded the statement from McGovern to reporters, a sign of her backing for the proposal.

    Quote

    House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) expressed opposition to the idea of proxy voting last month, telling The Hill that “I don't think proxy voting is healthy. It puts too much power in one hand.”

     

    • Like 2
  9. 1 minute ago, TXSG8R said:

    Just spoke to my mom in Germany.  My cousin doctor in Bamberg finally got her test results, shes negative so shes going back to work.  Cant touch patients for another week though.  She said the Bamberg region has ~250ish cases, only 6 in ICU.  The German military is actually flying in Italian patients due to their ICU availability (German wide, not just Bamberg obviously), which is pretty ballsy IMO.  

    I was thinking about it this morning, I'm really surprised that we haven't instituted some kind of system that limits how and when people can move based on simple stuff like addresses.  We do similar during droughts, these numbers water Mon and Wed, these numbers are Tue and Thur.  Why cant we implement that kind of stuff for going to stores?  You would limit the exposure between areas and keep clusters more contained.  Check DLs or water bills at the door.  

    some place was doing that for shopping using birth years

  10. 1 minute ago, bernorange said:

    Common wisdom seems to be that a lack of adverse outcomes in the face of extreme preventative measures means the preventative measures were effective.

      Reveal hidden contents

    lololololol   /ducks

     

     

     

  11. Just now, FondrenRoad said:

    Bale will spend a year living the role. He will be indistinguishable from the real Fauci once the cameras are rolling. 

    DDL has been spending his days solving 4 minor pandemics in preparation for the role.  He spends evenings staring for three hours in an unflinching trance at a medical diploma with his name on it.

    • Like 5
  12.  

    This rings true to me.  It seems like my right wing friends are taking this seriously, despite the popular portrayal of republicans intentionally flouting the rules.  The golfers making a show of shaking hands / squeezing in together stories, beachgoers, and UT spring breakers seem to be more the exceptions than the rule.

     

    • Like 1
  13. 1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

    so once again, referring to trump as a "wartime president".  i get that this strokes his ego (why else do any of this?), but is that really something he considers resume-enhancing come november? 

    losing a war against an invisible enemy - jan, 2020 - present 

    it's a mere continuation of his "all base, all the time."  truck nutz guys will love it. loved him already.  no one else cares.

  14. 6 minutes ago, jw4381 said:

    Here's a text from a nurse friend in a north Houston hospital:

    "You all stay safe, stay home this is horrible. It's brutal. I just lost 2 patients in 30 minutes I'm helping ER."

    "It's a horrible death. Gasping for air with absolutely no one [family members can't be around, as we know] I got double geared up just so I could hold one of them."

    Fuck trump and his bullshit and anyone who still supports that sumbitch. 

    jesus.  

  15. 5 hours ago, Samson's Wig said:

    I wrote in Irish/English/French/German/Swedish/Norwegian/Danish/Dutch/Canadian/Australian/Spanish/Portuguese/Swiss.

    I know I missed a few but I got tired.

    Listen here, my mick limey frog kraut meatball frozen windmill dam canuck ozzie senor senhor cheese eating friend, I'm gonna make so much trouble for you you won't know what hit you!

    • Like 2
  16. 3 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

    So, one of the kids on that trip is my wife's best friend's daughter.  The daughter is quarantined to her room right now and they won't let her go anywhere else in the house.  When I asked my wife if she said something to her friend she said her friend did not want her daughter to go but apparently the Dad was OK with it.

    talk about blowing it, dad.  you had a legitimate way to keep your daughter from spending a full week in pound town and passed it up.

    • Like 2
    • Haha 1
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