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tokamak

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by tokamak

  1. 32 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:


    Expensive, but tasty. I see it at Costco sometimes.

    CSB alert: this was the kind of place that has a bunch of really top shelf liquors on a little cart that they’d push around and try to sell you. In addition to the Tears, they had the full Clase Azul line, El Tesoro 85 anniversary, Fuenteseca, Gran Patron, a bunch of stuff.

    My wife and FIL were interested in having a bourbon. Problem is none of us at the table know fuckall about high end bourbon. The waiter goes through the selections and we’re all just staring blankly. Finally he gets to a Michter’s and I recognize the name. Hey, I think that’s good stuff. Y’all should get the Michter’s. Waiter chimes in “great selection, but I should let you know that this one is $300 a pour”.  Uhhhh, ok we’re good. Thanks for the heads up bro. That’s what I get for trying to act like I know something. 

  2. 5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    Three times is my limit in terms of reading a post and trying to comprehend it. You're going to need to explain to me what your point is by treating me like I'm an idiot with minimal reading comprehension skills, I guess.

    Rereading you, I think we're talking about two separate (albeit related) things. My original point was just that I foresee a pattern of "fatigue" and "reload" developing over time. If Ohio State is breaking the piggy bank to assemble a $30m roster, does it make much sense for Texas NIL to comfortably fund a $20m roster? Being middle class doesn't count for a whole lot, here. That's it. I don't have a whole lot of deep thoughts on ROI or individual motivations.

  3. 16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

    I've avoided the ROI discussion for the most part over the years, mostly because when it has come up, it's usually zealots arguing for the negative ROI to ultimately be the downfall of a perceived unsustainability. That zealotry can be over their views on the principles of "real" NIL or their own rightness regarding economic and human behaviors versus the rest of us unwitting buffoons and our perceptions. In any direction, it looks like a tiring engagement. 

    That considered, I'll wade in here and point out the "negative ROI" concept is just laughably wrongheaded. Are ski resorts unsustainable because the visitors are getting a negative ROI on their "investment"? There's a Four Seasons 747 that flies clients around the world in suites to visit exotic locales for like $200k per flyer. That experience lasts like 2 or 3 months. Are those patrons getting a monetary return on their "investment"? Have the guys who forked over tens of millions to have their names on buildings and stadiums at various schools somehow getting a positive ROI on their "investment"?

    The answer to all of those questions to rational observers is "no". The premise is wrong in the first place. No one involved with booster NIL has any expectation of a monetarily positive return on the money they put in. It's not an "investment" to them. They're not deluded about buying an equivalent of pro sports team from the money-making perspective.

    Markets, industries, wealthy people - they can all remain "irrational" longer than your arguments can remain viable. Rich people will continue to pay large amounts of money to field sports teams in college for: -bragging rights, -access, -credit, -experience. They do not give one fuck if you approve or think what they're doing makes any sense, and that will continue to be the case for the rest of all of our lives even as the chorus of fates continues to lament the concept's perceived "unsustainability".

    It's a fair point. I'm not a gazillionaire and I don't spend a lot of time hanging out with gazillionaires so I don't know how they think. But I'd counter that the difference is that skiing or visiting St. Barth's or getting buildings named after you are not competitive endeavors. As I'm sure you well know, the comfortable rarely ever win the prize in a competitive activity. There's always someone else out there willing to step to the other side of their pain point if you're not. Being someone who's not in the know, I'd be thrilled if Texas's cruise control can match up to the rest of the top 15's all-out dash. I have to say I'd be mildly surprised if that's the case, though.

  4. 9 hours ago, SL Xpress said:

    That's my feeling. 

    It also depends on how the House settlement shakes out. I think there's significant NIL fatigue that people are hoping the settlement helps solve to some degree. I think once it's apparent you're still going to have to spend insane amounts above and beyond the cap figures or else you can't compete for talent, and then people realize it's important to them that Texas is competing at the highest level, then more money will be found. But it will help if Miller shows promise right from the get go. Which I believe he will. But I'm really positive about the hire, so I have some bias in that regard. I guess you could call me more hopeful than analytical here. 

    I know it's been discussed on Surly some in regards to football, but my guess is still that when the dust settles the model will be big programs gearing up for a championship window and then having a few relatively leaner years to reset and recharge. Essentially like how the smart NFL teams manage the salary cap.

    Given the amounts involved and the return on investment (none, except school pride and fun), it feels like a really hard sell for any NIL apparatus except Uncle Phil to maintain a top level output year after year forever.

  5. I know that we can play this game over and over and over again, but can you imagine how hysterical Fox News would be if the Biden administration had announced that the US Dollar being the world's reserve currency was a bad thing and they were going to change that?

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  6. Honestly I think this all blows over relatively quickly. Trump's Q&A with Bibi yesterday and that Truth(?) posted above are your clues. Trump is just looking for political wins off this. All these other countries aren't dumb, they know that he is just looking to be appeased. They'll start lining up to announce bold pledges to eliminate their trade imbalance with the US and big investments that were either going to happen anyway or are purely imaginary. It's just like the Softbank/AI/etc stuff but with countries instead of corporations. That way Trump can take a bunch of victory laps on social media and announce that he's dropping the tariffs on country X because he won big beautiful concessions from them. Rinse and repeat, line starts to the left.

    Sorry in advance for hurting anyone's fifis by mentioning Trump. I just don't see how the current market can be discussed without doing it.

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  7. Netanyahu just laid out the game plan in the joint Q&A session. Promised to eliminate the trade deficit with the US as quickly as possible. We'll see a bunch (all?) other countries pledge to do the same in short order. Trump gets to take a victory lap for standing up to the rest of the world and eliminating the trade deficit, tariffs are quietly dropped, and in the end nothing much changes. I think this is NAFTA -> USMCA all over again. Facts on the ground never matter, just the narrative.

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