tokamak
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Posts posted by tokamak
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God damn. Maybe if he doesn't work out at QB we can move him to TE.
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One thing to think about is Bama/Michigan fans will get first crack at the secondary market tomorrow.
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5 hours ago, Vermin said:
I imagine their OL depth is razor thin now?
Definitely not gonna be Sun shine and Flowers. The Seeds of a good line are there, though.
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Saw it today. It’s a cute, professionally made family film. Nothing surprising or revelatory, but a decent enough way to spend a couple hours. The songs were good but we’re not going to be listening to the soundtrack 3 months from now or anything like that. They should not have used “Pure Imagination” but I get why they did.
That said, I don’t get Timothee Chalamet. He has negative charisma. He’s both miscast and doesn’t do a particularly good job. Not like, distractingly bad but I just kept asking myself out of all the actors in the world, what compelled them to pick Timothee Chalamet? He and Awkwafina must share the best agent in the business.
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1 hour ago, Skipper said:
I think that $2100 get in the door goes down if it is Texas Bama. If UW wins it does down significantly. If it is Bama/UW, I'm pretty confident tix will be well under face (considering face is pretty pricy for this game). If it is Texas/Michigan all bets are off. Hard to know where it would land. Really no precedent other than Texas/USC when digital tickets/online market wasn't really a thing.
Already been discussed in this thread, but I think the move for someone that wanted to buy right now would be to buy an RSVP and then layoff some of the risk with a moneyline bet on Washington. By my math you could guarantee you break even if Washington wins, or end up with a ticket for a little bit less than the current secondary market price if Texas wins. On the other hand, as you said, Texas fans buying now are going to take a bath if we lose.
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I'm starting to question my assumption that ticket prices will go up if we beat Washington. They've already risen considerably - from $1300 to around $2100 get-in-the-door price. I think all four fanbases are buying right now to lock in a price. Obviously two of the four are going to be selling on January 2.
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Bought some 50 mg Delta 8 gummies the other day. Had no idea what I was looking for, never bought any of this kind of stuff before, but Sharmaine was really helpful on the live chat. Quick shipping, overall a very easy buying experience.
Like others have said, I have no idea how this stuff is legal in Texas. If you're a novice like me, and wondering if this stuff "works"...uh, yeah, it definitely works. I had one quarter of one 50 mg gummy and that was plenty for me. @Grippe is a maniac eating 275 mg of these things and still being able to function around the house.
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Same story for me as pretty much everyone else here - I discovered HornFans as a freshman and here I am 20ish years later. I was just a kid that fucking loved Longhorn sports, especially football, and wanted to discuss them with other people that felt the same way. From there, as I got older, I grew to appreciate being able to discuss other stuff like pro sports, travel, entertainment, and even news/business/politics with people who I’ve always assumed are a lot like me - Texans, college (UT) educated, 30+, sports fanatics.
I understand that 18 year olds don’t read message boards anymore, and I’ve actually been thinking about that for a while. What I can’t understand - and I’m definitely showing my age here - is where the conversations that drew me in 20 years ago are happening now? Are people really having lengthy, in-depth conversations about sports in the comments of Instagram posts and YouTube videos? I can’t wrap my head around that. Even if that’s true, you’re at the mercy of whatever topic the content creator feels like covering that day. It’s a one way street. How does that build community?
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3 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
I find the Cornerstone Speech to be a good way to shut up the 'states rights' mouth breathers. You're not going to change any minds, but it gets them to be quiet on the issue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornerstone_Speech
Damn this guy looks like a real cunt
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Kinda sucks that McMillan is way, way better than OU’s secondary but Arizona’s OL can’t even give their QB one fucking second to throw.
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Arizona’s OL is quite poor
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I just watched The Killer on Netflix. You might think an assassin thriller from David Fincher with Michael Fassbender would be worth your time. You’d be wrong.
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1 hour ago, ITHorn said:
You may as well buy a Bama and a Michigan at those prices. You still get a ticket if Texas makes it and if they don’t you can still try and recoup some of your money by selling to a Michigan or Bama fan.
Yeah this seems like the way to go.
Buy a Texas reservation: Texas plays = ticket for ~$1500 all in, Texas doesn't play = get nothing for $1k
Buy Bama+Michigan reservation: Texas plays = ticket for ~$1500 all in, Texas doesn't play = get ticket for ~$1500 and recoup what you can on the secondary market
Only downside is that if we go, you'll be sitting with opposing fans. But monetarily you come out way ahead assuming you can resell the ticket for more than approximately face value (which you can).
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Seems like there's way more inventory all of a sudden today. SeatGeek went from I think 1,500 or so tickets for sale yesterday to 2,700 as I type this.
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1 hour ago, kevwun said:
If they could wrap that up today so I can go to a family Christmas tonight and gloat like a motherfucker, that would be great.
If we land Evans today, you need to walk in like this
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I just watched McKinley's junior and senior tape and it doesn't scream 5-star to me. Great size and frame, but it's just a lot of clips of him making kinda normal DT run stops, not wreaking havoc. College guards will be able to hold those blocks against him for longer.
Compare, for example, to Colin Simmons' tape, which is him running past 6A tackles practically before they get out of their stance.
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1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:
I don't pay a whole lot of attention to recruiting: how is NIL's effect shaking out? When it was announced, the consensus was that schools like Texas, USC and Notre Dame would start to dominate. It doesn't seem that's happened yet, although 7-5 and 9-3 seasons probably didn't help those other two programs much, either.
That said, ESPN has Oregon's class ranked #3, which might hint at the power of $$$. Thoughts?
For the average fan (speaking about myself here), it's pretty clear that NIL is having a big impact. On the flip side, there's a lot about it that is opaque to us as fans. There are a lot of rumors, innuendo, and speculation, and very little public in terms of hard numbers, for obvious reasons.
Here's a (probably incomplete) list of things we're pretty sure we know:
- NIL is at the forefront of high school recruits' minds. It's openly discussed during visits and so forth. However, the extent to which NIL matters as the deciding factor varies a great deal. There are several 5-star recruitments each year that are pretty much purely NIL-driven. However, there are plenty of others who are still operating on the mindset of finding the right fit and the opportunities will come. For your average 3-star type, they're probably not getting promised much at all, just sold on future opportunities if they perform well.
- It's assumed that NIL is a bigger deal in the transfer market, at least at the top end where Texas is and should be involved. Guys at smaller programs that show out know that they can improve their situation by jumping into the portal. Small school coaches have started complaining openly about this.
- There was an initial gold rush associated with NIL with some pretty ridiculous numbers/contracts/promises involved. It looks very likely that the market is already correcting a little bit into something more sustainable.
- Different programs take very different approaches. Some go for big swings to land a few top prospects but probably aren't doing much for the middle and bottom of the roster. Others are a little more cautious about going all-in for any one player. Careful observation reveals that Texas is probably in this second group.
- The bag game is still alive and well in certain circumstances. It's probably best to think of bags and legitimate, rule-following NIL as a spectrum, not a binary.
- Texas BMDs are not yet fully mobilized in a way that us average fans would hope. The reasons boil down to conservatism and concerns about lack of ROI. A relatively small number of people are carrying the weight for Texas right now and it's not sustainable in the long term. It's very easy for us to sit here on a message board and spend other peoples' money.
- Fan collectives seem like a mixed bag. For example, supposedly Ole Miss's is rolling and coincidentally they have been really active in the portal. Many of them are a complete joke right now. Texas One Fund is off to an OK start but has lots and lots of room to grow.
edit: adding a couple more thoughts to this
- It's clear that we have gained some advantage via NIL so far, but to me it does not seem that Texas' (and programs like it) advantage has been as immediate and decisive as many assumed. I think the reason is point #3 above. Damn near every school has a few donors that can splash out some cash. The question going forward is who can sustain in the long term? A gap between haves (Texas, ND, USC, etc) and have-nots (Wyoming, Wake Forest, etc) appeared immediately. I expect the gap between those true haves and the sorta-haves (Nebraska, Tennessee, Alabama?????, etc) to begin growing.
- My personal opinion, probably not very controversial, is that we are still a long ways from the final form of all this. There are lots of aspects of the college football world in late 2023 that do not look sustainable. I think it's quite possible that the concept of NIL as it is right now will be largely forgotten or irrelevant in 10 years, replaced by a system in which the players get a share of the CFB revenue pie in a much more direct way.
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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:
I completely forgot about Hunter Moddon already. Just checked his 247 profile and he didn't sign anywhere yesterday, has no crystal balls, and has zero activity on his timeline since his decommitment in June. Wonder what the story is there.
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1 minute ago, Lonestar88 said:
Yeah, and he’s not announcing until this evening.
The off topic shitposting in this thread for the next 6 hours is going to be unbearable. What the fuck are we supposed to do? Work?
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SIAP. Big 12 coaches on Texas via The Athletic:
SpoilerTexas vs. Washington: Big 12 coaches praise Steve Sarkisian, Longhorns’ skill players
Bruce Feldman
Dec 20, 2023
All year long, it’s been said that Texas might not be back, but Texas is different. Well, The Athletic interviewed 11 Big 12 coaches (they were granted anonymity to scout candidly) who have played the Longhorns this year, and their consensus is the Longhorns are indeed back. They were effusive in their praise for head coach Steve Sarkisian and his staff as they evaluated how No. 3 Texas stacks up against No. 2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl, a College Football Playoff semifinal.
“It’s the best Texas team I’ve seen in years,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “It’s not even close. Outside of the talent, it’s the most disciplined, as well as the toughest. They were always gonna be the most talented, but we always thought we’d be the tougher team and we could get to them mentally.
“I think they’re very disciplined, more so than they’ve ever been. That’s a great compliment to Sark.”
Scouting the defensive tackles: The root of success
Sarkisian has always been an offensive whiz, but the identity of this team is rooted in Texas’s dominant defensive tackles. The Longhorns are No. 4 in the country in run defense, allowing 80.9 yards per game. Two years ago, Texas ranked No. 114.
“You can’t run the ball on them because of their defensive tackles,” said one Big 12 staffer. “You can’t run the ball inside on those guys. Don’t even try it. They change the math on you. (T’Vondre) Sweat is like 360 and can move the way he can? It doesn’t make sense. If you spend two to block him, he’s gonna beat the double team. They have four (defensive tackles) and none of them suck. They haven’t recruited great everywhere, but they’ve recruited great there.
“Oklahoma State wanted to run the ball because that’s what they’re good at, and they couldn’t. K-State kept trying to run it on them because that’s who they are, and they couldn’t.”
Kansas State had at least 138 rushing yards in every other game this season. Against Texas on Nov. 4, the Wildcats gained 30 yards on 29 carries. They’d averaged at least 3.9 yards per carry in every other game but finished at just 1.0 against Texas. In the Big 12 Championship Game, Oklahoma State was held to a season-low 31 rushing yards, and All-American running back Ollie Gordon II, who entered the championship averaging more than 6.5 yards per carry, averaged 2.6 yards on 13 carries.
The 6-foot-4, 362-pound Sweat, a former three-star recruit who has blossomed into a potential first-round NFL prospect, has made 42 tackles with eight TFLs and seven QB hurries. Junior Byron Murphy II is even more disruptive. He’s produced eight TFLs, five sacks and seven QB hurries.
“I can’t imagine two better than (Murphy and Sweat),” said a Big 12 defensive line coach who recruited both and marveled at Sweat’s transformation from a defensive end prospect. “(Sweat) was 249 pounds back then. He was good, a skilled edge guy. He’s always been nimble and agile, but now he’s just so much larger. Murphy plays nasty and with leverage.”
“Sweat is one of the biggest dudes I’ve ever played,” said a long-time Big 12 O-line coach. “(Murphy) is different. He was one of the hardest guys to block we’ve faced. He’s actually more of a problem. I’d rather play against (Sweat) than (Murphy). Texas is so strong up the middle with the defensive tackles and (linebacker Jaylan Ford).”
Ford, a senior, made 119 tackles with 10 TFLs last year. This season, he has 91 tackles, 10.5 TFLs and two interceptions.
“You can tell he’s a smart player,” said the O-line coach. “He is always in the right spot.” Five-star freshman Anthony Hill Jr., a 6-foot-3, 235-pounder former high school sprint champion, has wowed rival coaches. He’s made 63 tackles with 7.5 TFLs and five sacks, two of them against Alabama.
“That kid is a hell of a talent,” said the offensive line coach. “Texas has some real dudes in that front seven.”
Sophomore Ethan Burke has become a productive edge rusher with 8.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks. “He has really come into his own,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “They play hard. (Defensive coordinator) Pete (Kwiatkowski) has them disciplined.”
The line coach said he can’t wait to see the matchup between the Texas defensive front and the Washington offensive line.
“I think Washington’s line is frickin’ good,” he said. “(Offensive line coach) Scott Huff does a hell of a job. With Texas, I think you gotta scheme ’em, get ’em moving and get ’em tired. If you go slow, they’re really tough. You gotta go fast to wear ’em out.”
Scouting the secondary: Some issues could arise
Coaches think the Longhorns will have issues in the back end, especially against an explosive Huskies offense featuring quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and three stud wideouts.
“Their secondary is the one thing you can take advantage of,” said a Big 12 staffer.
“I’m not impressed with that secondary,” said a Big 12 defensive backs coach who has seen a lot of the Texas defense on crossover film. “If you can protect up front, you can get yards against these dudes. I do think (freshman) Malik Muhammad (28 tackles, four passes broken up, one INT) will be damn good. He’s physical and very smart.”
“I wouldn’t call their DBs a weak link,” said a Big 12 analyst, “but they can get exposed a little bit.” The coach said Ryan Watts, a senior cornerback, is really long and physical but “handsy and is a little stiff.” Safety Jerrin Thompson is a “leader” who gets everything lined up. But: “The most talented one is Muhammad. We all wanted him.”
Most of the coaches pointed out that Texas really didn’t have to face a bunch of explosive passing attacks. It did face Oklahoma and Dillon Gabriel, and that was the one game it lost.
“Washington throws it downfield better than OU does — and they have a lot better receivers,” said a Big 12 staffer. “ I’m curious to see how those Texas DBs hold up.”
Scouting QB Quinn Ewers: Overhyped?
Four years ago, Quinn Ewers was the highest-rated QB prospect the online recruiting services had ever evaluated. He began his career at Ohio State but was deep on the bench before transferring home to Texas. He had some good moments in 2022, particularly his play in a quarter against Alabama, where he lit up the Tide defense before he left the game with a shoulder injury.
He was inconsistent the rest of that season but had a terrific offseason, got into much better shape and came back more mature. The Texas quarterback has taken a good step forward in 2023. His completion percentage has jumped from 58 percent to 71 percent. He’s thrown 21 TDs and six INTs, but he is a polarizing topic among the coaches who have faced him this year.
“I’m not very high on him,” said a Big 12 defensive backs coach. “He can make every throw, but he’s been overhyped. The pieces around him are very good. Sometimes you watch him and you’re like, ‘Dude, what are you doing?’”
“I don’t think he’s an elite NFL prospect from what I’ve seen,” said a Big 12 staffer. “But for what Texas is doing, I don’t think he has to be. It’s just distributing the ball and not putting it in jeopardy. He plays so calm and cool. I think you can tell when their script ends — maybe it’s 20 plays or whatever. He feels good about it and goes out there and lets it rip. (After that) it seems like his aggression or confidence is gone. Maybe he gets gun-shy or maybe that’s what they tell him. Don’t take unnecessary risks.”
“Kids get hyped and it can be unfair to them. But I think he is a really good player,” said a Big 12 offensive analyst. “Sometimes you have to go through some learning and bumps, but he’s matured and from the outside looking in, I think he’s handled it well.
“He can make some throws with pressure in his face. I think he’s a tough kid who doesn’t get rattled easily. It’s cool to see that kid’s progress. People wanted him to be Pat Mahomes at 18. Pat got better and better and better. That’s a lot to put on an 18-year old.”
“I think, to some degree, he’s overrated,” said a defensive coordinator who played Texas in the first half of the season. “The (Texas) skill makes him. He doesn’t make the skill.”
Scouting the offense: Great skill players behind a great O-line
Texas has a deep, talented collection of receivers. Xavier Worthy leads the Longhorns with 73 catches for 969 yards and five TDs. Georgia transfer Adonai Mitchell is another talented wideout and ranks second with 51 catches for 813 yards and a team-high 10 TDs. Ja’Tavion Sanders, a dynamic tight end, is a matchup nightmare. He averages 16 yards per reception on 39 catches. Jordan Whittington (38 catches for 435 yards) is another player Ewers has much faith in.
“I think the Whittington kid makes them go,” said one Big 12 head coach. “He’s the dirty work guy, and he’s fully bought into his role.”
“The most impressive thing about Texas offensively is the perimeter skill,” said a defensive coordinator who faced UT in the first half of the season. “What makes them a tough out will be that these teams will try to cover them and play their defense as they normally do, but their receivers are close to uncoverable, so it’s best to work to eliminate big perimeter plays and make them work and bog them down. Alabama couldn’t cover them, and if they played again, the Tide still couldn’t.”
“A.D. (Mitchell) is elite athletically,” said a Big 12 staffer. “But I was more scared of Worthy personally because of his speed and elusiveness. (Sanders) is also a matchup nightmare. Those three scare the s— out of you.”
“They have the best receivers we’ve seen in two years,” said a Big 12 defensive analyst. “Those guys are great.”
Texas’ skill group would be even more dangerous if sophomore running back Jonathon Brooks (1,139 rushing yards to go with 25 receptions) wasn’t lost for the rest of the season due to an ACL injury suffered in mid-November.
“Brooks was really good,” said a Big 12 secondary coach. “He was so dynamic, but the guys behind him are also really good.”
CJ Baxter has rushed for 595 yards and went for 117 against Iowa State, which trailed only Texas in run defense in the Big 12. Jaydon Blue ran for 339 yards, including 121 yards against Texas Tech.
It helps that Texas has its best offensive line in more than a decade.
“They look like an SEC West team,” said a Big 12 defensive line coach. “They’re really big and well-coached. They want to pound you in the run game. I know people see the receivers and think of Sark as this guy who loves to take big shots, but the main thing they want to do is pound you.
“You saw it in that first game against Alabama. (Left tackle Kelvin) Banks is the most talented one. He gets his hands on you from a distance and he doesn’t panic.”
Sarkisian’s rep as a play caller is something that most of the coaches brought up. Each said it’s very deserving. Texas does lead the nation in scoring against ranked opponents, averaging 38 points per game. Coaches said Sarkisian has a great feel for knowing how to attack coverages and that he’s very creative, especially with how he uses his players and motions to force defensive movement.
“He has little-to-no tendencies,” said one Big 12 defensive analyst. “If he has one, he breaks it the next week. His in-game adjustments are elite. We played a stack man concept to a route we thought was coming and he had a counter that we had never seen that was something off an And1 mix tape. He’s patient in his play calling as he leans on the run game and perimeter pass game and is very calculated when he takes shots.
“In my opinion, the fact he didn’t get Big 12 Coach of the Year was as big a snub as I’ve seen considering the job he’s done with this team. The sad part is, it’s the coaches that vote on this, so it tells you it’s more about Texas leaving the conference than who is the most deserving coach.”
Who wins: Texas or Washington?
With almost a month to prepare for Washington, coaches expect Sarkisian to be at his creative best to get the Longhorns off to a fast start.
“You know Sark is gonna come out with some s—,” said a Big 12 assistant. “Him starting off games is as good as anybody.”
A Big 12 defensive analyst said that, for as much respect as he has for Sarkisian and for Texas’ talent, he does have some doubt about the Longhorns’ resolve under pressure. “The Big 12 ain’t close to the SEC,” the coach said. “Oklahoma, who I think is just OK, beat ’em. I don’t know how great they’ll be in adverse situations.”
Worth noting: In the past two seasons, Texas is 5-6 in games decided by seven points or less and 5-5 against ranked opponents. Washington is 10-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and 9-0 vs. Top 25 teams.
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40 minutes ago, Codaxx said:
I can see Sark singing this right now
Does Billy always have a Longhorn on his guitar? I have never noticed that before. Pretty badass.
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1 hour ago, Teryor said:
This post just made me realize Mukuba committing is going to get those idiots on the Florida boards hopeful that we now don't have space for Filsaime so I'm looking forward to those threads
Hope you read quick.
MNC game at NRG Stadium tickets
in Football
Posted
Yeah tickets jumped ~$400 instantly.