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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. All the well-resourced will get there, but at some point....players.
  2. The point is it's never been even between schools. CFB isn't like the NFL with spending caps and collective bargaining. The top ten programs have always had a massive advantage over the remaining programs. At one point they were basically the only programs you ever saw on TV for decades. The current situation has new aspects to work with, but it is literally no difference. The advantage exists. Not sure why you chose Oklahoma State, but let's take that example. There will be a media difference between Texas and OkSt with the conference changes, but even while they were in the B12 together, Oklahoma State would have had to get paid almost 2.5 B1G shares, per year, to match Texas' revenue. They can't. And it really makes no difference if Oklahoma State was in the B1G or the SEC or the NFL. On the brand side of things, Texas will always get the premier television window over OkSt, always be known more by recruits, transfers, etc etc. None of this is new.
  3. If they have less than a 30 point difference in a game, it should be counted as a loss.
  4. Eh....you're talking about teams outside the top 25 at this point. If you want to keep it comparable, you're really only talking the top 3 seed lines in the NCAA Tourney. The further down the rankings you go the more wacky the positions become. In this case, you're really talking about who is making it in the top 10 as at least one champ won't be in the top ten and another could be low enough to start stealing spots. Consolidation is going to greatly help the SEC and B1G, but its going to help the B12 too. To do that, its rarely a 3 loss team regardless of brand. A 3 loss Washington isn't jumping a 2 loss Utah. BUT a 3 loss Bama would jump a 3 loss UNC. Its in those sections where the benefit will occur and those are fractional in the overall top ten.
  5. You make that sound like its even now. Texas makes more on football than most schools make for their entire athletics department.
  6. It will end up at five very soon. Wasn't your point, but previous points that the ACC or B12 won't basically get 2 in a year are terrible maths.
  7. Its still only going to be like 40k. I always forget Kansas is only like 20k students.
  8. Most state schools are under one BoR, his original point was about Iowa and Iowa State and the State of Iowa has one BoR last I checked. 80-90 games is a lot of inventory, twice as much as the contract the B12 just extended. I can't imagine they do this on the current contract without a price jump. Expansion alone is going to drive a ton to streaming, as you're already seeing with B1G teams not named USC/OSU/Mich/Pedo and the B12 could probably add a conference network at this point.
  9. Seems New Mexico State too! Makes more sense in university systems, like Cal, Texas, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina, but big, first, and public are the primary. Surprised Arizona didn't make this list.
  10. Not happening this year it seems...
  11. Yeah especially with Tulane shocking USC
  12. Don't forget this one: Ohio State Doc Abuses Wrestlers
  13. I agree. They've had some strange ones. I say we just turn it all over to our future AI overlords now and be done with it.
  14. Looking at past results, it is far more likely that the ACC and B12 will get 2 in out of 12 per year, than the SEC/B1G will get 4. It will always vary but the most likely blend every year is: B1G/SEC = 6 bids ACC/B12 = 4 bids G5 = 1 bid ND or a random 3-4 loss from the B1G/SEC
  15. Its drastically different. It's not a volunteer fee, but it's also not institutional support.
  16. Yeah, you wouldn't. You'd take Miami first. For those who get stuck in the car and listen to sports radio, they had a conversation on today and one of the national writers, i think from Yahoo, but I came in late, listed what would happen if the ACC fractured. The basic order was ND was first by an extremely wide margin. They're number one on everyone's list if they ever join a conference. After that though the top two were UNC/UVA. The reasoning given, and they quoted conference and media contact conversations, was location in two rapidly growing states on the east coast and the combined weight of the university brand being far and away greater than the athletic department's brand. After that it was FSU and then a knife fight between if it would be Clemson or Miami. Next tiering was VTech, though they're picking a rough time to be bad at everything, then everyone else in the order we'd probably pick them in.
  17. Yeah, student fees are kind of an accounting trick. Some schools make kids pay for tickets; some sell them in advance. Some provide some games for some sports, some provide all. In Virginia, the state schools all have student tickets as a fee and then there are variations on how much it covers. JMU's is high, but students get free admission to all sporting events. It's not quite educational support, in that the school is paying to make the department in the red, but it's clearly a captive audience sale that not all account for in the same way. UVA and VTech have student fees in the tens of millions too.
  18. Yeah there are some anomalies. If you look at the top 50 programs by revenue things get a bit more even: $200M+ Club: Ohio State, Texas, Bama, Michigan, Geogia >$175m: LSU, A&M, Florida, Penn State, Oklahoma >$150m: Auburn, Mich St, Indiana, UVA, FSU, UK, Clemson, Tennessee, Oregon, Arkansas, Iowa >$125m: Louisville, Illinois, Washington, Nebraska, South Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota, Ole Miss (Pretty sure TCU/Baylor/USC fall in this camp) >$100m: Zona, UNC, ASU, Cal, Kansas, Utah, Purdue, VTech, ISU, MSU, Tech, Rutgers, Maryland, GTech, WVU, OkSt, UCLA, NCState, Kansas State (I think BYU falls here) I'd expect you'll see UCF, Colorado, Cinci and Houston join the $100m ranks in the next two years. This list also has a lot of fluctuation on it depending on who gets a good booster run in any given year. Like you mentioned with UVA's $50m donation, last year they had $105m. Two years ago Oregon was #1 with over $200m, now they're back to normal.
  19. That's an interesting way of looking at it. Sometimes school funds are there to support a lot of non-revenue sports, just two ways of tackling Title IX. You can either offer the exact same amount of opportunities, which means cutting mens sports not named football and adding more womens, or you can offer all of the sports possible and don't need to balance the scales. Though, sometimes its because sports gets you on tv and you need to be on tv, so spend the cash. Both JMU and Old Dominion are exploding in growth because UVA and VTech just can't grow as fast as the state is. UVA is still 22k students, while if they were like other land grant schools, they'd be 50-60k easy. What I didn't expect to see though is JMU with nearly twice the revenue as Washington State. Yeeeooch.
  20. I think they would. The issue I hear often from the ISU/OSU/BYU crowd isn't that they wouldn't support their team, its that they are against silver spoons. So, if there is a path to promotion and relegation that they could achieve, set it up. But Vandy shouldn't get a free meal over them due to luck and happenstance. If there isn't a way for that to happen, then that's when the number swells. I don't mind 64 teams too much, if, and only if, every single game on every one of those 64 teams is against each other. Having a quarter to a third of the schedule against teams a tier or three below is a bigger problem in my mind, like A&M vs Abeline Christian, than if Ohio State plays Rutgers.
  21. My guess, at the money Fox spent, is that those are T2 pick ups. Noon/3/Prime will be for USC/OSU/Michigan/Penn State and, to a lesser degree, Nebraska or Wisconsin games. Now if OSU plays the Ducks, then that will bump to T1, but the Ducks/Iowa or Washington/Purdue will be on FS1 during the day and Oregon/UCLA will be a prime time FS1..
  22. Definitely. Remember there is a major difference here. ESPN bought the use of the rights to the SEC and ACC until the mid 2030s, but Fox literally owns the rights to the Big Ten. All of the Big Ten's rights are owned by the Big Ten Network. That agreement goes out for a while, its why teams have to buy in, etc etc. The Big Ten Network then made deals for the T1/2 rights. But, during the pandemic when schools needed an infusion of funds, Fox bought an additional 10% of B1G, taking them into controlling interest. This is why Fox sat in the negotiations and why they gobbled up the west coast of what they wanted. This is a different fight than we've seen before, like Fox is using the Mouse pulling back as an opportunity to take space. We always knew they were not giving CFB the attention they could have for years, with limited marketing. But once they decided to hit hard, Fox Noon became the premier slot, and their LA studios got some hometown love.
  23. not sure why the brightness went up to 11 but...interesting quote
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