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Hurtlocker

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Everything posted by Hurtlocker

  1. Pretty spot on. Couple thoughts: The ACC's contract looked terrible at the time they signed it, but it is actually getting better. Just not better, fast enough, to match the SEC. This is because they gave away decades of not being able to go to market so that ESPN would give them the ACC network. It is just now starting to gain traction and their revenue is increasing because of it. Third tier rights are nice, but don't match T1 games in terms of revenue, and that's where the ACC won't catch the SEC for a long time, if ever. The B12 never formed a network because their households weren't awesome and they never had enough inventory to fill one, its basically sold content to FS1 and ESPN+ and this didn't change with the move to 12. With the move to 14 and perhaps 16, including their households doubling from 10 to 13, they would have the extra inventory and markets where they could form one in the right conditions. With cable losing 36% of its homes over the past 5 years, would they want to? The ACC and B12 are two different peas in the same pod, financially. The ACC has 2-3 major draws, 3-5 duds, and some solid middle. The B12 lacks both major draws and duds, so its just a solid middle. The ACCs highs are higher, but their lows are lower, evening out their network value. This could change if the B12 grows to 16 with even money plays. They'll end around 34-38% below the B1G's set ceiling, higher than the ACC, and with the ability to prove they deserve more money 5 years before the ACC can even go to market. This is likely the main reason FSU wants out of the deal it forced on the ACC. It expected to match the SEC with its own network, but that was never going to be the case. The Pac had a great contract, best in the biz for a moment, but destroyed it. Seven channels was too many channels, too much expense, too little payoff and it was evident two years into the experiment. Now they're at the point that if Arizona leaves, I'm not sure how the Pac remains in the same conversation as the ACC/B12 as long as Oregon/Washington want a new home. They could add SDSU and SMU, but even if they're worth $200m a year, Oregon/Washington are 40-50% of that contract. If the B1G takes them or turns to them and says, "we will never, ever want your wagon wheel coffee table" and they join the B12, there is nothing left, due to geography. It is really a shocking case study on how 12 schools with the brightest minds and massive business schools ran their own operation into the ground.
  2. Hahaha, this is one of the better ones I've seen
  3. I don't think I've ever seen him state they came in equal. I'm pretty sure he mentioned they'd have to bite the bullet and come in junior until the next media rights deal.
  4. That article is full of gems: "There’s also the competitive issue: Would the likes of Oklahoma State and Baylor welcome two heavyweight football programs that would make playoff access exponentially more difficult for the existing Big 12 members?" Because they've never played a schedule with the likes of Texas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska on it. But sure, pitch Oregon as the Brady led Pats. "From the perspective of the two schools, there are innumerable reasons to decline the Big 12 option. The first, of course, is geography. Can you imagine Washington sending its athletes (in all sports) to Ames, Orlando, Cincinnati and Lubbock on a weekly basis?" He goes on to point out that doing it in the B1G gets more money so that makes it ok, but his argument is basically it is better to wall off easy travel at the expense of better competition. Though, i think we all have started to notice most of his info comes from Oregon State. "If the Pac-12 loses the Four Corners schools, leaving just the Pacific Northwest quartet and the Bay Area teams, two scenarios would exist: 1. The conference reforms by adding the likes of Boise State and San Diego State to create a league of eight or 10 teams. 2. The Huskies, Ducks and perhaps Cal and Stanford agree to join the Big Ten, likely for reduced revenue shares, thus expediting the creation of the Big Ten’s eight-team western division (with the Los Angeles schools). The latter scenario feels more plausible and yet, at the same time, not all that plausible." Outside the Big Ten being positioned as the white knight saving the damsel in distress, San Deigo is around 1200-1300 miles from Seattle, while Ames, and around 7 other schools, are around 1700. Nothing is close as an option. "Either way, Kliavkoff’s strategy was to draft off the Big Ten’s negotiated figure of more than $60 million per school per year. Our sources in the media industry were skeptical of the approach and suggested ESPN would be, as well. However, it’s difficult to know what price point would have been acceptable to Oregon and Washington, for instance. Then the Big 12, desperate for security, renewed its agreement with ESPN and Fox at $31.7 million per school per year. Suddenly, a floor was set for the Pac-12." I read this to be "We asked for $50m in extension phase and were offered $32m. We went to market and the B12 took our $32m, fuckers"
  5. I don't disagree, but the original question was "if the B1G grabbed UNC/UVA/FSU/Miami, would the SEC even give a shit about anything left from the ACC?"
  6. While I agree they won't add VTech/NCSt, both of those schools are likely closer cultural fits to the SEC than UNC/UVA, who both view themselves as the oldest and most premier "public Ivys" Pitt won't be Auburn again due to the fact that Western Pennsylvania is no longer the top recruiting hotbed it was in the 70s, which has been replaced by SE belt of talent that Auburn resides within. Not that it doesn't still have a lot of talent, but it's not the same talent, providing athletic freaks in specific positions, like Dline, that you need for today's game. And agree on young adults, but demographics are not cut and dry. Just because people moved to Georgia doesn't mean they're all Georgia fans in the way that they could be Falcon fans. College fanaticism tends to be generational. Population growth is definitely helping the SEC schools with increased admissions and more households for the SECN, but population isn't a negative factor for the B1G, was my point. They have more population and generational fans than any other conference and the gap between them and the SEC is immense. Someone posted another stat that shows this well. The SEC has dominated championships for the past twenty years. Big brands are being created because of that. The B1G still makes more money.
  7. I don't think the B1G needs "after dark". They own the three most powerful windows in Fox at Noon, CBS at 3:30 and NBC at night. ABC gives competition in Prime, but USC should help there. 7:30 eastern NBC games are only 4:30 Pacific and NBC is leading in with a ND game at 3:30. After dark has value, but not B1G/SEC value. More T2 value, and only really for ESPN, who puts sports on all day, as opposed to Fox/NBC/CBS
  8. TCU lost to KState in the CCG last year.
  9. Yeah that's how the first round byes got in. They could have gone to 16, but if you are going to take the $20-30m for a CCG, might as well give your winner a breather so all the other scraps need to beat themselves up to play you.
  10. Haha, true. I still don't see how they bring that value...and this is coming from someone who is paying for a Hoo to go to school. WVU has a far more rabid fanbase than Virginia and gets more media exposure in that 300 miles of campus window where most schools get their kids. I went to the ND/UVA game in Charlottesville and it maybe had 50k at start and was down to 30k by half. Basketball, on the other hand... Also, i know what you're saying, but I don't subscribe much to those "demographic issues". The rust belt been hit hard by the manufacturing decline, but its still growing slowly and there is still a fuck ton of people, infrastructure, and money already there. The growth of brands in the south has little to do with population increases, if it did UCF would be the new Michigan. What has changed is media exposure and the B1G was the first to capitalize on that, followed by the SEC, and will continue to do so. There will be 100m more people in the US over the next 25-30 years. The rust belt and LA aren't going to become ghost towns while Nashville becomes the next Tokyo. And even if it did, that doesn't mean Vandy is going to turn into USC.
  11. Big 12 expansion: Conference prefers to add one more school after Colorado with Arizona seen as favorite Not really much new, outside confirmation that FOX/ESPN is fronting P5 expansion and Texas/OU buyouts were invested in boosting the new 4 additions until the media contract extension officially starts in 2025. So if @USC Traveler's Pedo State info is on the mark and the Big Ten went to 20 with UVA/UNC/FSU/Miami, what would happen next? With Sankey pretty much saying all he cares about is brands, is there anything left the SEC even gives a shit about?
  12. This is about the most legit sounding expansion stuff I've heard in a while. One third of the US lives in the I95 corridor, far more than the Pacific Northwest, and UVA/UNC reside right in the area the Big Ten doesn't control.
  13. Like pro soccer. A club can purchase a player from a club for a higher contract, but the current contract holder gets a 30% transfer fee.
  14. Yes, the Big 12 by laws are not like the Pac's, they state 2 years of revenue, plus damages, plus GoR considerations. Everything's negotiable, Texas/OU got out for like a little over one year of revenue, but it's not a good agreement for a temporary visit.
  15. Arizona's next step in realignment should be obvious
  16. Delaney has said in the past that 16 is the magic number where once you cross it you start to cease to be a conference. Now, he's been out for a while now, but the B1G probably requires daily worship to his altar.
  17. That's actually a downside considering how certifiably terrible the Big Ten West is.
  18. Yeah that was nearly all Nebraska. They lived off prop kids and died the moment they were gone.
  19. Interesting twist from Iowa State Media: Seems mirrored here: Then there is this:
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