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Brew

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Posts posted by Brew

  1. 12 minutes ago, Derka said:

    by the way you too are lacking in self awareness. you said i’ve been misogynistic in this thread? that’s your take? criticizing women = hating women? any criticism of a female = misogyny? you’re doing the same exact thing as sawbonz. how many wildly critical posts have i made about shaka smart? now how many times did someone tell me that i hate men because of these posts? never happened, never will. you think you’re championing some great cause; you’re not. you’re making it worse.

    Your reading comprehension sucks just for the record. Criticism doesn’t equal misogyny, not liking the product is perfectly fine and your right to not follow/post about it. Posts like you made on the last page in relation to the fashion post equal misogyny. This really isn’t that difficult. 

    No point in continuing this circular discussion, keep on being you.

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  2. 5 minutes ago, Derka said:

    sawbonz and people like him are so painfully lacking in self awareness that they’ll never realize that all they do is accomplish the opposite of what they’re trying to accomplish.

    Holy shit, find a mirror my man. As a father of two daughters also, there is nothing that Sawbonz is telling you that lacks self awareness. Again, your posts come across as misogynistic especially some of them on the last page. As far as the rest of your posts about their profitability, do you feel the same about female college sports as you do about the WNBA or are your issues strictly with the WNBA’s financials?

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  3. 2 minutes ago, Derka said:


    …, and it turns out it’s an ugly, ugly scene.

    Pretty simple to figure that out for yourself (in your view anyways) and then move on to whatever floats your boat. Post 1283 isn’t justification for why you think the sport is bad, it’s just being a  misogynistic asshole. Way too many “we’s” in there for someone who doesn’t care and who really hasn’t done anything to be able to use a “we” in that context.

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  4. 8 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

    I have literally never watched a minute of a WBNA game. I don't give a shit about the league. It's not for me and that's 100% fine with me. I just don't also see it as a fight. Of course I know that the NBA is subsidizing the league. So what? If they weren't doing that would the money be going to me? Is there a Serak fund that I don't know about?

    I skim this thread every once in a while because I am truly amazed at how strongly people feel about something they don't watch or enjoy. You said "we" subsidize the league, let them cosplay or play dress up but how are you doing it? Just because you are a man doesn't mean you are doing shit for the WBNA. Are you also enabling the Cartels by being part of a sex that buys drugs?

    He’s on a roll, leave him alone. Most people just ignore a product/team/sport that they dislike, instead we have post after post trying to justify his feelings. I follow the WNBA from a distance, check out the Clark highlights, and keep on with my life. Hopefully, the league improves, expands, and gets through the growing pains.

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  5. One thing I would add is be careful what you buy before you know where the kids are going once they leave. We sold our place in South Florida a few months before Ian and had our replacement purchase fall through because of Ian. It took a while before we could legitimately start looking again and in that time frame our kids have become more certain about where they are going for college and post college and it is definitely not south. We’re looking out west and in Chicago now. I’m still going to buy another place in South Florida but I’m probably going to look smaller and in a different area than where we were originally going back.

  6. 2 hours ago, troph said:

    To me it breaks down like this:

    1. Cooler temps than Texas = good, and even it it’s hotter there then locals are used to it’s not my historical memory of what it used to be like that is impacted. So net win. 

    2. any rural destination is likely going to be at least locally red. Parts of Colorado, sierra nevadas in California, mountain towns in Oregon and Washington, all can have red majorities. So to me I may just have to deal with some of that. What you want though are near 50/50 splits so it’s not like Idaho country with red and batshit red and I’ll shoot your face off militia red.

    3. So I’m leaning toward picking a blue state, rural area, near mountains. I’ll deal with the red local politics if I have to. But I’ll be part of why that state is stubbornly blue. Right now it’s Colorado, but Oregon and Washington are in play. New Mexico to a lesser extent. All blue states, mountains and Colorado has more blue local politics in the towns we’d like to live close to. 
     

    so the only thing TN lacks is the state blue part. I think it hits 1 and 2. NC may end up blue eventually. NM and even mountain parts of AZ are interesting. NM in the populous mountain spots are pretty blue I think. Though going west water becomes an issue.  Never thought about northeast GA but that’s blue ridge territory, probably redAF but the state is probably turning blue and staying blue.  Question on a lot of those areas is how red is the local red.

    Georgia itself isn’t turning blue, Atlanta is what keeps it split since 60%+ of the people in Georgia live in the Atlanta metro area. The Blue Ridge area is very hard red. 

    As far as TN goes, stay far, far away if you are concerned with politics. With the number of people moving in, TN will be about as red as it gets outside of Nashville/Memphis. We’re 75/25 at the state level even though the two metro areas above make up 45% or so of the population. They have gerrymandered those districts enough to where it can be 75/25 at the state house level even though presidential elections lean 60/40 with 3 counties going blue.

  7. Hell, just do it assuming it makes sense for what you are looking for. You know the owner, you know the boat, you know the dock/area, for a partial interest that’s better than most deals you will find. You can rent small boats for day use all around south Florida which are cheaper than going guided once you know the area better. 

    I would lean more towards a condo with a boat out back, but I’m not big on dock life at this point and I strictly sight fish so a big boat doesn’t make sense for me. 

  8. On the things we finance, I just run an amortization schedule and give it to the buyer and they make the payments. I don’t think I’ve ever sent a monthly invoice on a seller financed property. I also don’t adjust for payments made early unless they make excess principal payments, then I just rerun the schedule and send it to them. If they do something like add $100 to every payment, I rerun the schedule at year end each year.

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  9. 2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

    We have a supply problem. 
     

    Nothing more. 

    Clearly an issue, now go into the reasons we have a supply problem. You know things like corporate ownership on an expanding scale, rising interest rate environment driving people to stay in their houses, changing tax policy, hell even the current political environment resulting in a shift in where people are living, etc.

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  10. 1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

    You’re talking about commercial bank debt, and not mortgages, correct?

    Yes, commercial bank debt. You can only hold a few mortgages. Technically, you can go to 10 I believe, but most people don’t qualify because the qualifications don’t change so every additional one makes the spread to qualify get more narrow. If everything is paid for, you can mortgage a few properties to provide buying opportunity, but you’re not getting to 75 (or even 25) without using bank side financing if you are financing.

  11. 5 hours ago, LCHorn said:

    I’m stealing this from the Hidden Forces podcast, but if we take one industry, let’s say automobile for familiarity, and posit that electric car demand is a huge disrupter that allows new entrants an easier path to market entry than 10 years ago (when they would be competing instead with firms that have up to 100 year head starts), then we should see more new firms than we are.  Instead it’s mostly just Tesla and a smattering of rival firms that are far smaller.  
     

    The auto industry is a terrible example of fund backed investment opportunities. The runway is too long for a typical PE type fund that is looking to return capital to investors in under 3 years. It might work for an institutional fund but the ability to make money operationally there is still a huge question mark. It comes down to whether you can get public interest behind you to cash out on a public offering which is a massive gamble.

    There is significantly more money in that space than ever before. We get emails daily from funds looking to make investments that are startups, known funds, and everything in between. I think I’ve talked to 10+ family offices in the last few months that are all 9-10 figure family offices making investments. There is too much money concentrated at the top of the system, so when you are competing with them on single family housing it’s a losing proposition.

  12. 7 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

    I understand that. I did use 2.75%, as it was pretty much a low, but have been careful to say “rates” and not “mortgage rates”. Up until about 18 months ago, entities had been able to probably accumulate massive portfolios at about a 5-6% cost of capital, and that was probably significantly lower if they were borrowing off of margin or some capital call facility. I do think there have been wealthy individuals / family offices that ultimately obtained first lien conforming or jumbo mortgages at lower rates. I know a guy in New York who owns about 75 homes I’d say specifically in Austin through a family LLC. I’ll ask him how he’s financed these purchases, but I do know they’re all lowly levered (relative to most other homeowners). Like probably not more than 50% LTV even at time of purchase. 

    I deal with large investors often and have been in partnerships with 200+ single families at one point in time, but I don’t deal with institutional investors. Most of the time there is somewhere around a 2% minimum spread difference between owner financed using the mortgage market and investor financed using the bank side financing. There was definitely a run up in non institutional investors that we deal with purchasing when rates were lower because they could buy in the high 4’s / low 5’s on rates. That’s probably closer to an 8-9 today.

    That 2.75% rate should have expanded ownership opportunities, but instead inflation and supply issues offset the benefit.

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  13. 3 hours ago, LCHorn said:

    Taxation is one remedy, but I would offer that the real cause is a failure of the modern economy to produce firms worth investing in (I.e., capital is looking for non-traditional investments).  Lots of guilty parties contributing to that, but lots of solutions as well.  

    I don’t follow your logic here. It sounds like you are saying that institutional investors are having to go outside of typical investments because of lack of opportunity within the traditional space therefore they are chasing non-traditional investments. I don’t see that at all. The numbers on investments being made are up significantly. I would say it is more related to how much money is tied up in institutional investments whether PE, family office, retirement plans, etc that the massive wealth accumulation at that level along with a lot of other circumstances is driving the alternative investments.

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  14. 2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

    I’ve not been speaking gibberish. I’ve been very clear. 

    Sounds like you’ve totally changed your mind on rates. If you don’t know why a 2.75% mortgage rate might lead to outsized investment in that space by those that can afford multiple homes, relative to individuals, I’m not sure you’re capable of having this conversation. 

    You do realize that people who own multiple homes and those owned within corporate environments aren’t getting 2.75% mortgages, right? You could technically have 10 mortgages, but I can’t say I have ever seen anyone qualify. Usually, once they are past a few then they are dealing with bank side financing, not traditional backed mortgages.

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  15. 26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    I think this tribe would be in as much turmoil if you introduced to modern society through any other means. I don't think this specific instance is because of internet. The internet is the mechanism by which the tribe is introduced to modern society, but it isn't the cause of the friction. You'd get the same result if you airdropped them a TV and the DVD for Clueless. 

    Not at the same speed or at the same scale. Your last sentence isn’t true at all. Comparing access on the internet to TV isn’t even a comparison at this point. Having two daughters, the change in interaction in relationships is a huge concern. The internet tries to normalize some fucked up stuff.

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  16. 4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

    This seems less about the internet and more about connecting a remote people with a very different culture to the modern world. But also, yes, the internet is the porn. 

    It’s all about the internet and the cultural changes it is driving. Look around, it’s not an anomaly. 

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  17. Eliminate the standard deduction (everyone itemizes), eliminate the SALT cap when itemizing, increase the use of homestead exemptions in states that don’t use it, reinstate first time home buyer credits, and build in a bigger spread on rates on government backed mortgages versus conventional financing. 

    You aren’t putting the horse back in the barn on corporate ownership, but you can increase the incentives to individual ownership. Also, they might want to rethink that whole 21% corporate tax rate. 

    These issues aren’t new, but they have been exacerbated by a certain piece of tax legislation in 2017 along with the high inflationary environment of this decade.

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  18. If you have the means, go consult with a family law attorney and see what the options are. I don’t know shit about the legal system, but I remember at that age sitting in front of a judge and telling him which parent I wanted to live with and that’s who I lived with. The kid is old enough that there should be a way around the issue. Getting dad to relinquish his parental rights sounds like a problem, but at some point the circumstances of his upbringing should carry some weight. Doesn’t mean it will though.

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  19. 4 hours ago, texasdago said:

    One upside of my son thinking of a major that is not business or engineering.  Then again, not a major that will lead to a high paying job.  Eeesh.

    Daughter applied as an English major and got accepted pretty much everywhere. Others with higher ACT’s got rejected from the same schools. She is very involved and had great essays, but applying outside of business and a few other options definitely opens up more opportunities at the selective schools. 

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  20. 9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

    Depending on department, I'd put UDub above the others you listed.  @Beau Vine can surely speak to UDub and Texas State with some authority.  I haven't heard fantastic things about Boulder from parents who have sent their kids there recently, it's pricey and somewhat of a party school.  (My cousin did his PhD in AeroEng there, though, and raves about it, but that was almost 30 years ago.)

    I'd look at some Big 10 schools -- most are good to great.  Michigan is probably a stretch, but Illinois and Wisconsin might not be.  Minnesota, Maryland, and Penn State should be do-able.

    What majors is he considering?

    If you aren’t getting accepted in state at UT, you’re aren’t going to make the cut out of state at Michigan today. Also, we toured it and were not fans of the campus layout. You don’t have the traditional campus setup like a lot of southern universities because of how the campus is laid out around Ann Arbor.

    Illinois is definitely worth a look. Near the top of the Big Ten in all rankings, decent campus, etc. We pushed our daughter to really consider it, but it was too far away from her friends ultimately. We also looked at Purdue and Indiana, but location killed them. 

    Florida is worth considering if you are just looking at academics. Suprisingly, Clemson is also worth a look. They have a pretty strong honors college.

  21. If you ever fly into Savannah, make sure to pay attention to the Air Force side of the runway. They had an assortment of the different jets the AF fly as well as a number of T-38 Talons and other planes. My pilot took his time on the approach to takeoff so we could check everything out. They also had a Sikorsky CH-53K sitting out there, it’s hard to believe how massive that helicopter is even sitting next to F-22’s and 35’s. This isn’t my picture, but this is what it looks like right off the edge of the runway except the planes are all newer versions.IMG_0665.thumb.jpeg.34dc82c6a5a7fd4ac3a77aeabb954ccb.jpeg

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  22. 15 hours ago, Don Johnson said:

    Actually none of that is fantasy. 

    That said, I’d love to see some backup on the bottom 50% paying an effective tax rate of 24%. 

    It’s not correct, nor anywhere near correct. I think the actual numbers on the bottom 50% of income earners is sub 5%. I even played with some data using taxpayers (eliminating those that pay no tax) and I don’t think you can get there although it is closer. 

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