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Longhornmaniac8

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Everything posted by Longhornmaniac8

  1. It's so, so early. Honestly, I think Biden underperformed in Harris, only banking about 195K votes (with 80% in), with what we have reporting so far. Hillary by about 160K total.
  2. With 98% reporting in Denton County, Trump is up by 7.5% (28K votes). He won Denton County by almost 20% in 2016 (59K votes). Lots more voters there, though.
  3. Biden's going to drop 200-250K votes in the central time zone counties in Florida, that's why Florida is over. Good news is Miami-Dade's demographics are not replicated anywhere else in the country. Biden outperforming in most of the rest of Florida.
  4. Miami-Dade numbers are absolutely awful for Biden. Hilldog won by almost 30%. Biden up by less than 9.
  5. This is probably good for Biden. Look at the E-Day totals. They're favoring Trump, which wasn't unexpected. The lower the E-Day turnout, the fewer Clark County votes Trump will find.
  6. Remember, the Rs were supposed to come out in droves on Election Day. That the Ds are stretching their lead in the biggest population centers on a day the Rs were supposed to be making inroads is...not ideal for the Rs.
  7. These are not the numbers Trump needs to win Florida. Not even close. He needs to be up near 500K. Edited to add: The total 2016 margin in those counties missing E-day votes was like 15K votes combined. And given the early turnout, it could reasonably be construed he's probably only getting a net 5K or so from those counties so far on E-Day.
  8. Turnout in Miami-Dade looks to be good, too. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article246923312.html I've seen a tweet that says they're expecting roughly 80% turnout there, which would shatter records. It looks like E-Day turnout is roughly even, which even with a heavy D lean in the county is probably good news for Ds.
  9. Something else worth noting: a brief search of the weather in various battleground places looks to be good weather on Tuesday basically all across the country. Nothing there that would hamper turnout.
  10. There's an interesting sort of paradox now. With huge EV/MI totals skewing D, a higher turn out on Election Day would probably benefit Rs more so than Ds based on voting patterns. But higher turnout overall favors Ds.
  11. It went 62-35 for Sinema in 2018, but there were only 53,500 votes cast, netting Sinema about 15,000 votes.
  12. 62% of the Arizona 2018 Senate vote came from Maricopa County. The margin there was 60,255 votes for Sinema. The statewide margin was 55,900 votes. Basically, as goes Maricopa, so goes Arizona.
  13. Also worth pointing out the enormous (>25%) amount of undecided D voters in the Senate race. Even the numbers overall point to ~20ish% undecided on that race. That's probably bad news for Hegar in the sense she's been practically invisible. So many people don't know who she is or what she stands for. Most of that is self-inflicted, but I have to wonder how much she got from the Senate D PAC. I'd imagine not much, given the importance of so many other races. I haven't paid attention to her fundraising, but with those numbers either her campaign is truly historically bad or she didn't have that much finding. Both can be true to differing degrees. That said, I think she'll overperform her polling, but still lose. It's just hard to imagine many Texas Democrats splitting their ticket given the current political environment. It's also a good sign she seems to be running slightly ahead with Independents. Overall this particular race feels like a case of "what ifs" for Texas Democrats. What if they'd had a better {candidate, message, campaign,}. I don't even think she's necessarily a bad candidate. Some of the consistent attacks levied by Republicans would be tough lands on her, especially with respect to rah-rah military patriotism. She's pretty moderate, which is what Texas needs right now if we expect to flip it.
  14. Just to get some clarity/confirmation, these totals are assuming there is no change in voting patterns of a county's electorate from 2018. If a county voted 55.5% Cruz, the assumption here is 55.5% Trump?
  15. I think that Disney is releasing that new animated feature "Mueller and the 18 Angry Democrats" next year.
  16. No man has ever spoken so much and said so little. JFC.
  17. He is, but it's only because we've set his bar so low. He has absolutely no specificity in any of his responses. Just platitudes.
  18. The first 10 minutes have been an actual debate. It's...refreshing. Especially because Joe continues to sound like the sane one.
  19. That would be pretty fucking major if true. And it's Ralston, so I believe it is. We'll see how that plays out, but if the Ds take that into election day, plus another bump in Washoe, there won't be enough votes left in the rural parts of the state to overcome it.
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