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Longhornmaniac8

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Everything posted by Longhornmaniac8

  1. This is masterful politicking. Not only do you set the stage for the last debate to be in the format that clearly favors your candidate (not that he's bad in other debates, but the town hall format allows him to speak directly to people, which is clearly his strength), but if your opposition balks at it you get the opportunity to score cheap points by questioning why Trump doesn't want to face the American people.
  2. You can practically read Pence's bullet points on his notecard. This is embarrassing.
  3. Harris is hammering home points that will connect to more people. Pence's rah-rah freedom won't resonate with more than his base.
  4. Basically this. Nothing has changed that the Rs will try to steal the election. It's much easier to steal a 4 point race than a 9 point race. Even with Republican fuckery, it's getting harder and harder. Again, the lead can (and probably will) shrink between now and then. The bar is now so low for Trump in future debates, who knows what kind of twisted narrative he may benefit from. That said, the town hall format plays to Biden's strengths.
  5. Biden has done as well as any person could staying above the fray. When Trump starts yelling, Biden starts talking to the American people. Something Trump has not done at all.
  6. I can't wait for the narrative to start that Biden's tripping over his words because he's senile, and not because of his stutter.
  7. If you use a sous vide, no resting required.
  8. It really wasn't. The SMU catch was obviously a catch. He secured the ball in his arm, took a step, and had it knocked out. Easy call. That one obviously wasn't. Two totally different rules applied, and they were both adjudicated correctly. And I couldn't care less who wins.
  9. Apparently they've never heard of the process of completing the catch. Christ I don't know if I ever remember Lowell being this bad before. Yes, seriously.
  10. He clearly possessed it after the bobble and made a football move. Really a pretty obvious call. ESPN not doing any favors by not slowing it down more, but that's absolutely the right call.
  11. I read that article, too. It's not really what it said. In an average year, it might be a toss up state, but in 2020 it's still definitely in the Lean Democratic column. That's more a function of the political environment than the state itself, but it doesn't change that it's not a toss up in 2020.
  12. Longhornmaniac8

    Sushi

    It serves exactly the purpose it's intended for. Namely to be fat American pig while eating perfectly edible sushi. I love it.
  13. Yep, 0.2, typo. I'll edit. Here's what the Definitions tab says about Mean Reverted Bias.
  14. No it doesn't. It's a simple fact that with more time until the election, there's more time for things to change. There is considerable uncertainty with a lot of things right now, not the least of which is the impact of COVID. As the time decreases, results today become more predictive for something in the very near future. I agree that polling has been pretty steady, but when using a predictive model you have to factor in the time until the election .
  15. Silver's model is factoring in the time left until the election. He's said somewhere (I can't find it) that if the model were told the election were tomorrow, Biden's percentage would be over 90%. If the polling remains more or less stagnant (I think it's tightened some from a month ago, probably with a national 5-6 point lead for Biden instead of 8-9), expect the 70% to slowly but steadily increase.
  16. Hell, at that temperature, you basically don't even have to specify units.
  17. It's doable in that timeframe if you dedicate more than a few hours a week, but even then it requires more luck. I'd plan on 6 months if you stay dedicated, flying 2-3 times a week. Too many variables like weather, plane availability, etc.
  18. Use Dauntless for the Private. There's nothing better. Once (if) you move on to Instrument, Sheppard Air is the way to go. Follow the study strategy. Remember, the written test is a hurdle to get past, and has almost no correlation with your overall level of knowledge. Trust your CFI on your actual level of knowledge. Just do whatever you need to do to get past the written. The path of least resistance is to use apps like Dauntless and Sheppard Air which have the question bank and just memorize it. I've used Sheppard Air for every test since Instrument, with the exception of Commercial. Guess which one I got below a 95% on...
  19. That's pretty normal. I fly the 175 and I've been snowed on both in the cockpit and as a passenger.
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