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Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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6 hours ago, 4th&Five said:
I sold some golf gear at play it again sports a few weeks ago and they had plenty of dumbbells and kettlebells.
This. They have some. Saw from 5 to like 70lb dumbbells.
They get them hit or miss.
Their KB are a little limited (at least location off Anderson Ln) but they had some slam balls (picked up a 25lb one last week)
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Travis County CV19 Hospitalizations down to lowest number since 6/22. Sitting at 230 right now.
CV19 ICU numbers down to lowest level since 6/21 at 79 currently
Good to see this heading to lower thresholds.
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2 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:
Rattler must really fucking suck.
My thoughts exactly.
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Travis county jumped over 300 cases yesterday with 349. Last week Tuesday was 296 cases so even with the normal Tuesday true up this is a high day and the highest day since July 21st.
Fairly even distribution across the age groups so no real "A-has" here.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/18 vs 8/17 2 10 26 99 82 59 35 24 8 4 349 % of Daily Change 0.57% 2.87% 7.45% 28.37% 23.50% 16.91% 10.03% 6.88% 2.29% 1.15% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.07% 26.57% 21.61% 16.32% 11.56% 6.64% 3.29% 2.50% 24,756 -
1 hour ago, Fud said:
55% isn't a bad completion percentage if you're on a bad team. Guys do have to get open, and they do have to catch the ball.
Did he start as a ninth grader on varsity, or did you choose to phrase it "has had his QB rating get worse every year he played in high school" when he's only started for two years?
I saw stats that said varsity by them for past three years. I’ve seen him play in person around three times and he’s been “meh”.
Admittedly AHS sucks. Like I’ve said I wouldn’t freak out if UT took him as a absolute backup scenario, but I do believe there have to be better options out there as I haven’t seen where he’s been a difference maker at QB.
I’m not saying stats are only thing but I do think they are relevant measures and that it’s not wrong to expect to see improvement as a kid is in system longer.
If AHS plays he may have a breakout year and I’m not rooting against him or anything, I just think UT should be able to do better even for backup QB
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31 minutes ago, NoName said:
come on, don't use completion rate and QB Rating for high school players.
this is the kind of stuff baseball fans have loved for years "but he hit .380 at High A" - I'm not saying it doesn't matter at all but it is only a small part of the picture. Unless you expect a QB to have zero growth between their senior year of HS and last year of college.
His numbers have regressed each year he’s played HS. I get Austin high stinks but barring a massive leap he’s not the guy to tie a scholarship up on.
I wouldn’t freak out if UT took him but I think they can do better -
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:
Look who is stealing Surly content...
They were 4-6 last year and 3-7 the year prior (know they got destroyed (no shock) by Westlake). Kid had a 55% completion rate last year and has had his QB rating get worse every year he played in high school. This is not the player to go after. I am fully prepared of course to see him go to ISU and cause Texas nightmares and to hear nonstop about how Texas didn't recruit him even though it was his dream school.
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1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:
So only 15,000 fans will leave at halftime then?
Also that is a lot fewer opportunities for the typical "best fan ever" fan fiction that normally ensues during the season.
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Older son tried out for a select team here in Austin with a buddy of his. My son made the team and his buddy didn't.
I am looking forward to some fall baseball as I am 100% sure that middle school football (my older son is in 8th grade this year) will be canceled.
I feel bad for my son's friend as it may well be (with Covid etc) his last run at baseball.
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If football even happens this fall I would table everyone but the team.
No band, cheer or pom. Just the team be on the field.
Let all the support groups wait until next year.
In terms of playing/not playing "The Eyes" I really don't care. I support people's right to protest. I also support businesses rights to dismiss people who protest. I then support consumers/voters etc right to punish businesses who dismiss protestors etc etc
It is the great circle of life.
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Here is the day over day change for Travis County by age group. Fairly standard distribution vs the total share by age group across cases.
Back into the 200-300 range (264) in terms of case count. This is 35 more cases than reported a week ago. I believe that by and large somewhere between 200-300 cases/day seems to be new normal.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/17 vs 8/16 0 3 24 82 68 35 27 16 4 5 264 % of Daily Change 0.00% 1.14% 9.09% 31.06% 25.76% 13.26% 10.23% 6.06% 1.52% 1.89% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.08% 26.54% 21.58% 16.31% 11.58% 6.63% 3.31% 2.52% 24,407 -
1 minute ago, Liquor and Poker said:
Is this possibly school or is it too early? Seems too early.
I think too early. My supposition is these are camp based/typical summer kids getting out of house etc. Last camps came home ~7-10 days ago so this is about when they would present with infection etc.
We may also see a run up as parents may be testing kids in advance of school in order to quarantine prior to sending etc
Will definitely be interesting to see if we see big spike in UT zip code & in the school age brackets.
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Just now, Eggo said:
Tell us about them and I might be interested, too.
They are the first African American owned distillery in Kentucky (I put Tennessee as I know some on Surly live there and I know they are selling there)
Owned by three brothers (hence the name)
They got the idea as the older brother was working in UK as a spirits importer/exporter. They all grew up in Louisville, KY.
Bourbon is described by them as a "party" bourbon. as it is good for mixing.
Reviews seem to be fairly decent. Here is one from "Master of Malt"
Brough Brothers Bourbon Bottling Note
Brough Brothers Bourbon is the brilliant brainchild of Victor, Chris and Bryson Yarbrough in Louisville, Kentucky. A marvellous small batch Bourbon made with a mash bill of 75% corn, 21% rye and 4% malted barley, resulting in a flavour profile boasting cooked fruit, vibrant spice and toasty oak notes. Great for sipping, but it also shines in some classic cocktail recipes, too - it does rather well in a Whiskey Sour, and makes a great Old Fashioned
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Anyone live in Tennessee?
I want to support a black owned distillery there that just launched
Brough Brothers Bourbon. - I will pay for the bottle and shipping.
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1 minute ago, Nivek said:
1) I will happily fuck myself.
2) the numbers are part of a problem because we know there was a surge in pneumonia deaths at the same time and testing's availability was lacking. We still have a spike in deaths per the NYT article.
3) You are correct in posting the numbers. The issue I am taking is that the numbers are not accounting for other risks outside of a binary live/die answer. There is very little about the acute/chronic impact of the disease among those deemed recovered. I may be a bit reactionary as my family, who cited some of these numbers, believe there is a conspiracy to hide treatment for a new virus, and believes there were 19 iterations of this same virus. So I will happily go back to step 1).
Hey man - appreciate it and I will own being a little harsh myself.
I don't disagree that there may be number suppression with things being hidden in pneumonia & flu cases. You can look at the CDC numbers and they show the following if you include the deaths from flu & pneumonia (I am just adding 100% of them) here is what you see (2/1 - 8/8 Male only)
Total Deaths - 12,624
Total Deaths from influenza, pneumonia & CV19 - 388
Deaths from influenza - 27
Deaths from pneumonia - 210
Deaths from CV19 - 154
The 15-24 Male age group makes up 1.47% of total Male deaths that have occurred & 0.19% of the total Male CV19 deaths. If you add Pneumonia, Influenza & CV19 deaths the 15-24 Male age group makes up 0.26% of all PICV19 deaths that have occurred among Males in the US from 2/1 to 8/8.
I actually think we agree, I think CV19 is VERY real, I by no means am downplaying it, I also don't see a scenario where football happens. I think now that students are back on campus you are going to see the bubble that football players have been in the past couple of weeks completely burst as kids from 18-22 years old do the stupid, awesome college age shit that kids this age do. They are just happening to be doing it at a REALLY bad time.
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Deaths in CA by age group (https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/COVID-19-Cases-by-Age-Group.aspx)
They do different age brackets than Travis county but the age bracket that would include college age athletes shows:
0.07% mortality rate (161 deaths from 221,337 cases) and they account for 1.4% of total deaths. Similar to Travis county (and the US) the age cohort for 60+ comprises ~82% of total deaths))
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15 minutes ago, Nivek said:
Let's pretend the numbers are correct and that the mysterious uptick in deaths during the pandemic is just that, an unrelated mystery.
So lets unpack this a bit. Using your number that works out to about 221 dead student athletes. Let's ignore the coaches, trainers, bus drivers, hotel workers, and families of these people and keep our focus only on the players. What are the longterm health impacts of the disease or are there any? What does recovery, as it is being reported mean?
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I would encourage others to hand out negs to stop the dangerous spread of misinformation.
I am not saying it is a "mysterious uptick" and for Travis County these numbers are correct. You are the one saying this is misinformation. You are welcome to look at the data, as I do daily and track it as I do daily to confirm. I am not saying that players will not die. Nowhere am I downplaying this, and in fact I also highlighted concern that significant risk is longer term health impact from a virus that is not fully known. I would encourage people to hand out negs to folks like you that are just being a dick for no fucking reason. Go fuck yourself. You may not like the data, but it is not misinformation. It is the actual fucking data. What is the number of athletes by age group you are using to get your death totals? Is it just for football or is it all fall sports? Are you attributing 100% of exposure to playing of sport or are you removing some for exposure to other events (attending class, parties, going to store etc)- See this is how data can be critically discussed.
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Putting in a plug for the SmartWod Wod Generator App.
You put in what equipment you have available to you. For me in backyard it is:
Pull up bar
Battle ropes
Dumbbells
Kettlebell
Slam Ball
and it builds a WOD for you to do. You can also build your own and save them.
Cool little app, let's you do multi rounds and track your splits etc between rounds.
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10 minutes ago, aggie08 said:
This is the aspect that "scares" me. The symptoms are so fucking all over the map with this thing, and not nearly enough is known about the long-term effects.
My wife's friend lives in New York, caught it in March, and hasn't left the hospital since. None of her symptoms seem life-threatening, but it's still, obviously, doing a number on her.
I'm not saying that they shouldn't play, but man the "they're 20 years old, they're not going to die" takes are cringe-worthy.
I agree. While the statistics support that death is highly unlikely, it is all of the uncertainty related to these infections due to lack of time to study them that is more concerning. Football players as a group are already engaged in high risk behavior in regards to concussions/CTE and all of the associated problems there. (in full disclosure my older son plays football, so I am not anti-football (younger son is too young but will also play if he chooses to)). So set against CTE backdrop it is not surprising that football players as a group & certainly coaches are less concerned re: long term impacts from Covid.
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Challenge with talking about this is that it is very easy for A) both sides to be right and B) both sides to just speak over each other. In looking at mortality rate for Travis County one can make the statement that college age kids that catch CV19 will not pass away. There are two cohorts that Travis County provides data for in the age group that college kids can/will be in (in particular football players)
10-19 (0.05% mortality rate)
20-29 (0.03% mortality rate)
I am not going to say that no college football players will die. What I can say (The Travis county data closely mirrors US data) is that it is HIGHLY unlikely they will die.
The broader concern for me are the potential long term health impacts to these players. This is the unknown. Will their life span be shortened? Will they be more susceptible to respiratory or other issues later in life? etc etc etc
At the end of the day these players aren't catching CV19 because they are playing football. They will catch it because they are on campus, and as has been shown from numerous videos of college aged idiots having house parties, going to clubs, beaches etc en masse with no masks/social distancing there is little to nothing you can do to stop the spread in this age group.
The coaches/training staff/press etc are primarily the ones that are taking risks around dying.
If I were UT I would play games with no fans in the stands. Keep testing religiously (as they have been) and work to quarantine impacted players. However I truly don't see games happening. Even if the university presidents were willing to roll the dice, I believe that the players are going to catch CV19 at scale and it will make it too difficult to even field a team with any degree of predictability.
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As happens every now and then in Travis county you see a drop in a bucket by 1 or 2. Day over day, the 80+ group dropped by 2 so there must have been some coding error that was caught.
<200 cases yesterday for Travis County so nice start to the week (down ~100 week over week). Big jump albeit on small numbers in the 1-19 year old brackets with these two brackets exceeding their normal contribution by 10pts vs normal.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/16 vs 8/15 0 9 17 33 35 26 11 3 3 -2 135 % of Daily Change 0.00% 6.67% 12.59% 24.44% 25.93% 19.26% 8.15% 2.22% 2.22% -1.48% % of Total Cases 0.49% 2.99% 8.06% 26.49% 21.54% 16.34% 11.59% 6.64% 3.33% 2.52% 24,143 -
1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:
Why would BMI not have an effect on mortality?
being fat kills you earlier, makes you more prone to getting cancer, and makes it harder for you to breathe. Of course being fat is going to be a risk factor for death with a respiratory virus
It does. See chart i posted above.
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Ok - Rather than me chart it out. Here is a clip from the study. It is bucketed by <60year old & 60 year old +. Then you can see the BMI buckets and the mortality rate by each.
BMI > 30 is considered obese, anything over 40 is severely obese. You see a significant increase in likelihood of death among those with higher BMI scores <60 years old. Less so for those >60. I think that is frankly due to fact that those >60 are screwed to some degree already in terms of their mortality rate so BMI really doesn't impact there as badly as in those folks that are younger. They way to read this is that the line is a risk factor of 1 and the bars show the range and the composite risk factor that the BMI score applies.
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22 minutes ago, Lobo said:
Is there good data yet about (and I acknowledge there are so many comorbidities out there and the correlation won't be know for a long whilte)...but regarding connection between overweight and deaths regardless of age bracket? It's only anecdotal, but the outlier age mortalities (when they show kids through 60 years of age), it's striking to me that almost none of them were overweight. All the time I've spent in senior centers, there's just not that many overweight 80 year olds. They died off long ago from something else. But the stats are bearing out this cohort of people over 75 who are obese. And I'm just wondering who they are and then the weight profile of the under 75 cohort. I guess the media uses outlier cases for ratings, but I also just know that people over 75 that have lived that long aren't that old because their BMI was so damn high. I dunno, I haz confuse
What I’ve seen is just some quick hit studies that say “obesity makes it worse”
However I’ve not seen any kind of broad study that shows BMI of either
A) hospitalization or B) mortality.
Edit - Belay that as the Annals of Internal Medicine just came out with a report that shows out of a sample of ~7000 people that BMI does have an effect on mortality.
Those with high BMI are 4x more likely to die than those with lower BMI. In addition those that are younger & male with high BMI scores are much more likely to die than those with lower BMI. (In particular those 40-60 years of age)
I will plot it out in a chart on my next post. It is an interesting read.
This might be the funniest police comedy sketch ive ever
in Lulz
Posted
That female police officer should not be a cop. Clearly not capable of handling a conflict like that. Why couldn't they have tasered that dude in the store?
She ditches her partner (who had run and hid behind the counter) and then screamed when guy ran at her and then waited until other cops had distracted him and provided numbers and shot him (where if she had missed she would have hit (at least it looked like) another cop)
Just a completely bad hire. Not saying that dude wasn't crazy but the moment you had 4 on 1 and the 1 is unarmed and has a yappy dog with him you probably can resort to non-lethal.