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BrazilHorn

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. Daily update for Travis County. Barely stayed in the 200-300 range (296) that Travis has been hovering in by and large the past couple of weeks. Good jump in 1-19 ranges which I expect is camp related. I won't be shocked to see these groups continue to run above their typical average as back to school starts soon.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/11 vs 8/10 0 21 34 67 52 60 23 22 12 5 296
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 7.09% 11.49% 22.64% 17.57% 20.27% 7.77% 7.43% 4.05% 1.69%  
    % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.86% 8.08% 26.63% 21.45% 16.41% 11.65% 6.60% 3.33% 2.49%   23,249
  2. I think Texas could give weekly EKGs along with the CV19 tests and be very proactive re: player safety. Poorer schools like a&m may not be able to do this so I can see if they have reservations about playing.

    Texas has caught preexisting conditions in players repeatedly and not allowed them to play. I would be shocked if heart issues related to post CV19 infection (or any viral infection for that matter) is something UT isn't already or couldn't screen for.

    Ideally Texas can flex a bit and the fall schedule moves forward as planned. I do understand that football isn't the only sport played in fall, but let's tell the truth no one at a macro/watch on TV/make the university millions of dollars perspective gives a shit about the others.

    Get cheerleaders and band out of it to reduce risk and just have players and staff if need be. I would rather watch UT playing in an empty stadium with no band/cheer squad etc than not have football this year.

     

  3. I would have loved to watch Big10 Football in the Spring. Nothing like a Feb matchup in Wisconsin or Minnesota.

    Players would be a greater risk of frostbite than Covid 🙂

    Best bet if you are going to cancel season is just truly cancel it and start schedule as normal in spring (traditional spring camp etc)

    • Like 1
  4. Jump back up to above 200 again (has been Travis county range last couple of weeks (200-300)). Of concern is the higher daily total of 60 yo+ in yesterday's grouping.

    Using average mortality for the three age cohorts in the 60+ grouping I expect to see ~4 deaths from the 52 people 60+ that tested positive yesterday.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/10 vs 8/9 1 7 23 36 42 39 29 29 16 7 229
    % of Daily Change 0.44% 3.06% 10.04% 15.72% 18.34% 17.03% 12.66% 12.66% 6.99% 3.06%  
    % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.80% 8.03% 26.68% 21.50% 16.36% 11.70% 6.59% 3.32% 2.50%   22,953
  5. 6 minutes ago, B00M said:

    I hope you're right. I think this is the model being used to come up with that 15k TX number: 

    https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

    Are they looking at the max end of range? Every single metro on their chart shows a decline from their 7 day moving average (except for El Paso). To be fair I didn't deep dive into it, but just looking at the projections it would seem deaths declining across state vs having this type of significant uptick.

  6. Really positive momentum on total cases with the past two days being in the low 100s (122). This is first time with back to back <200 days since 7/20. Having no cases in those >80 is good news in regards to forward looking mortality as this bucket has ~20% mortality rate.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/9 vs 8/8 1 2 23 30 18 20 13 11 4 0 122
    % of Daily Change 0.82% 1.64% 18.85% 24.59% 14.75% 16.39% 10.66% 9.02% 3.28% 0.00%  
    % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.80% 8.01% 26.79% 21.53% 16.36% 11.69% 6.53% 3.28% 2.50%   22,724
  7. 5 hours ago, Grade of D as in David said:

    Well that's one way to fix the social security insolvency issue.

    Thank goodness they're olds and not a fertilized egg or the Republicans would have never had the balls to let them die.

    I’m not celebrating it by any means. It will though once all the dust settles be interesting to see impact to Medicare & SS.  

  8. 11 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

     

    Given that ~80% of all deaths have been those that are 65 years old +, I am looking forward to the "Freakonomics" style analysis on the impact this has to social security & longer term healthcare. It's no joke that the elderly have been sacrificed.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  9. Welp - a decent number of those folks are going to get sick and die. Especially the older, fatter ones (which looks to be the majority)

    Of course they will probably spread CV19 to a store clerk, hotel receptionist, waiter, bartender etc on their way back home.

    Just unreal. People like this are absolute fucking idiots. Just an absolute joke. This is why we cannot have nice things.

    • Hook 'Em 3
    • Like 1
  10. 1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

    I keep hearing anecdotal evidence about major complications or long term malaria-style debilitations in survivors in various age cohorts, but I haven’t seen any data that isn’t binary “dead” or “recovered.”  

    I think it would be very useful in calming fears if someone would break down the percentages by age of “didn’t die, but still fucked up pretty bad months later” or “didn’t die but for 10 days I wanted to.”

    I get that it’s a bigger ask but I think it might be very helpful to hear what I can reasonably expect other than “you will probably not die.”

    Challenge is Drs are finding new after effects weekly. Heart issues, lung scarring, cognitive/brain issues, blood clotting etc

    There are going to be years of longitudinal studies around recovered patients spanning a lot of possible dimensions. 
     

    Just crazy. 

  11. Big Milestone this week. Travis County had its 1st recorded death in the 10-19 year old age bracket. Still a very low mortality rate (0.06%) but a 1st nonetheless.

    Only 22 deaths WoW down (prior 3 week avg was 36/week so this is a good reduction)

    Mortality Rate by Age bucket below (defined as # died vs total # of cases within age bucket)

    0 - 1 (0%)

    1 - 9 (0%)

    10-19 (0.06%)

    20 - 29 (0.03%)

    30-39 (0.12%)

    40 - 49 (0.30%)

    50 - 59 (1.36%)

    60 - 69 (4.34%)

    70 - 79 (8.76%)

    80+ (19.93%) - This is crazy - 1 in 5 chance that if you are >80 and get CV19 you will die.

    image.png.7b08c8b36357de94671ca94b8ac572fb.png

    The three oldest age cohorts make up 81% of all deaths. Not saying anything about lingering conditions in younger, recovered folks but the group dying are those that are older. Stay away from your parents/grandparents.

  12. Double whammy to universities if these TV deals are cancelled as well as the lost of ticket sales/food/merch etc sales.

    Colleges are already reeling from kids not attending on campus and several are facing revolt from parents around fee structures etc

    If you are a mid-tier admin at a university that has enjoyed carte blanche to bloat departments and pass costs on to students/parents via student loans etc I would be very nervous about job security right now.

    I think a bloodbath is coming to schools here soon.

    • Hook 'Em 2
    • Like 2
  13. 11 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

    13 cars parked outside my neighbors house for a kids bday party. Fucking assholes. 

    Neighbor next door is having a wedding in his backyard today. Same guy that had a birthday party for his kid late June.

     

  14. Based on it now being virtual for 1st 8 weeks (basically until early November) I will be shocked if AISD doesn't extend that timing to take it virtual past Thanksgiving.

    Or I also could see opening up for the couple of weeks preceding Thanksgiving and seeing if infections run rampant. Then you could go virtual to close out calendar year afterwards.

    There have been 2,385 positive cases in Travis County for those aged 1-19. (624 for 1-9 & 1,761 for 10-19). If you say take half of the 1-9 group (312) and add it to all of the 1,761 10-19 kids that gives you approximately 2,073 school aged students in Travis County that have been infected thus far. Quick check of the interwebs shows around 186,000 school age kids in public school (no clue on private) In Travis county. So quick back of the envelope math would show that we have had:

    ~2,073 Infected of 186,000 public school population: ~1.1%

    This is quick and dirty calculation but it shows scope of issue facing just one county. The VAST majority of school age kids have not been infected. This also means that they haven't been potential vectors for virus spread.

    Keep your kids home if you can. There is very little upside at this juncture (especially for AISD Middle/High school where the in person will mirror virtual) to send your kids to school.

  15. 10 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

    Over under on first case of covid announced due to practice?   Ugh I can’t beleive I said that.  Let’s go.   I hope all schools do it right and sept 1 no cases to show the staff is doing it right 

    They say they are going into camp with no positive cases. My worry is going to be when the players are fully back on campus with other students and the inevitable house party kind of thing pops and half the team goes down.

  16. Daily change for Travis County. Good/Bad story in that from a projecting deaths perspective we are seeing a peak in <19 year old cases vs their overall share and a decline in the >60 year old cases compared to their average. Cases still in that 200-300 range each day so well down from their early July peak.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/6 vs 8/5 1 8 26 64 46 35 24 15 9 4 232
    % of Daily Change 0.43% 3.45% 11.21% 27.59% 19.83% 15.09% 10.34% 6.47% 3.88% 1.72%  
    % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.80% 7.91% 26.82% 21.68% 16.40% 11.67% 6.46% 3.24% 2.50%   22,256
  17. 1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

     

    Updated on Aug 6, 2020 at 6:18 AM

    The early reports from voluntary 7-on-7 portions of practice at Texas included the news that the offense is mixing in more reps with four receivers on the field, or 10 personnel. That has potentially big ramifications for the season, perhaps the biggest being an indication that new offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has freedom to package the offense as he prefers.

    Tom Herman maintained an intense devotion to 11 personnel. Staying in that set with one running back, one tight end, and three receivers and running the entire offense from that personnel grouping made Texas’ tempo tactics much more effective. The Longhorns could get into different formations and move their best players into multiple positions to make the most of different situations, and opponents couldn’t substitute in specialized packages to match up. If their personnel didn’t have similar versatility, they just had to try and make the best of it.

    So you’d regularly see Texas hurry into empty formations with Devin Duvernay matched on linebackers, or in power formations running two-back lead plays for Sam Ehlinger on third-and-one. If the defense wasn’t ready to stop it in their base defensive package they had to take the L or call a timeout.

    Yurcich has gone the other way at previous stops, mixing in lots of personnel packages rather than staying in one. His units would emphasize a few key play concepts but be able to run them from different personnel groups and in different formations so as to involve offensive players of varying skill sets. Oklahoma State offenses of the past relied extensively on 10 personnel, 11 personnel, 20 personnel, 30 personnel, and 12/21 hybrid sets. The Ohio State offenses he was involved in also used a fair amount of 12 personnel.

    If Yurcich has freedom to explore different packages in an effort to maximize the full Texas offensive roster, that could mean the Longhorns will begin to use more heavy packages as well.

    Texas’ experiments with 12 personnel

    Texas has used 12 personnel now and again over the last two seasons. Their 2018 base offense was arguably a 11.5/20.5 personnel grouping because Lil’Jordan Humphrey was, in effect, a full-time flex tight end. In both 2018 and in 2019 they’d play with two tight ends now and again, usually on the goal line, in short-yardage, when backed up to their own goal line, or when they wanted to run out the clock.

    They struck gold with it against Baylor before the half in 2019…

     

     

     

    This is potentially good news as long as Herman doesn't insist on spreading the TE out as a WR to try and "confuse" the defense. None of the TE on the roster are plus players vs the WR players UT has. Hopefully TH ripped out those pages in the binder.

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