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BrazilHorn

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. Just now, Anastasis said:

    Clown show. 

    https://www.statesman.com/news/20200825/amid-drop-in-coronavirus-cases-austin-health-officials-ready-to-ease-restrictions

    But by mid-August, the numbers sloped downward, with the hospitalization average down to 21.1 on Monday, and the daily count of new cases as low as 81 and only as high as 350 over the past 10 days.

    Some of those higher figures include thousands of backlogged cases reported by the state that were not included in earlier reports.

    Escott said health officials examined those cases and found about 50% of them were more than two weeks old, and therefore no longer active.

    “So while right now this appears to be a plateau with some oscillations, we have evidence now that supports the fact that our cases are likely actually declining more substantially,” Escott said.

    This is the kind of shit that also feeds the "grassy knoll" CV19 deniers/anti-maskers. It seems like every week there is news that contradicts reports that were released prior. Ranging from data accuracy/mgmt, medical studies etc

    Just feels like it is CV19 TMZ vs people trying to rationally, pragmatically report the information.

     

  2. Four days in a row <200 cases for Travis County. That is a nice little trend to see. 127 cases yesterday vs 349 a week ago same day. the 40 - 49 cohort represents a third of all cases yesterday but they were offset by less representation in the 70+ cohorts so there should be a dip in deaths following these as well in coming weeks.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/25 vs 8/24 0 1 6 29 25 31 22 9 2 2 127
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 0.79% 4.72% 22.83% 19.69% 24.41% 17.32% 7.09% 1.57% 1.57%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.06% 26.71% 21.57% 16.35% 11.55% 6.59% 3.29% 2.43%   26,017
  3. A real interesting ethics study is emerging from OU & Tech (and other schools that have publicly stated a desire to play football in the fall AND are reporting CV19 cases)

    Given the unknowns around long term effects on a person post CV19 do you allow even if medical staff (which are admittedly biased) clears them to return a player to play football this season or do you make them sit a longer period of time to demonstrate no ill effects?

    Or do you just do this for players that showed active symptoms vs being asymptomatic? There is no ONE version of CV19 illness, seems to be kind of like real estate in that they way the virus presents in people can vary significantly even in family groups/teams etc

    Or do you allow players once they are past quarantine period to return (similar to concussion protocol)

    Given that I have no faith that we will have a viable vaccine at scale (even for next year's CFB season) this dilemma will be something to wrestle with.

    Do we treat post CV19 infections in players similar to a concussion protocol type deal or as something completely different? Interesting to see where things land for college athletics in general.

  4. 15 hours ago, Blotto said:

    He will go on the "Art Briles" faux Christian forgiveness tour, write a couple of books, make some teary eyed appearances on Fox with the aim of finagling some sort of talk show/political commentary gig

    This trope has been rolled out by Swaggert, Briles, Copeland, Bakker etc etc etc It is the way these guys role. Hate the sin, love the sinner bullshit they fling out to cover their asses.

  5. Another good day in Travis County yesterday. Bear in mind a lot of times the Tuesday update is the TCAD weekend true up so having a lower case count day on a Tuesday is a really nice sign.

    154 cases yesterday down ~110 from this time a week ago. Travis Co had been living in a new normal of 200-300 cases a day but this marks three days in a row of <200 cases so that is a nice little trend (even if two of the days were weekend days)

    Higher contribution from the 20-29 age bracket (albeit still from smaller numbers) as they represented ~36% of all cases yesterday. Not ready to say this is from college return/move in etc but the zip codes that surround UT bear some monitoring. As of today 78705 has 371 cases.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/24 vs 8/23 1 6 8 55 27 25 16 9 6 1 154
    % of Daily Change 0.65% 3.90% 5.19% 35.71% 17.53% 16.23% 10.39% 5.84% 3.90% 0.65%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.08% 26.72% 21.58% 16.31% 11.52% 6.59% 3.30% 2.44%   25,890
  6. 4 minutes ago, ABSR said:

    Appreciate this, but what I am looking for is a capacity/utilization chart for hospital beds and icu beds. 

    Ex. So the chart shows a moving average of 72 ICU beds due to COVID.  I am trying to have a way to determine what that means from a capacity standpoint.  It is going down, but is it down from a capacity of 75 so we are still critically close to over running capacity, or is capacity 1,000 and even if it goes up to 100 (while no hospitalization is good), from a capacity standpoint it should not be an immediate concern.

    If I missed that info on the web site I'd appreciate being pointed in the right direction. Thanks.

    Three major healthcare systems in Austin have 2,470 beds collectively with 483 ICU beds. These beds don't count the temp places set up in convention center etc.

    So currently Travis County has 172 hospitalizations with 63 in ICU. This is down from a peak of 480 patients on July 20th & 159 ICU patients on July 15th.

    There were 18 new admits for Travis county yesterday compared to high of 78 on July 15th.

    So all in all Travis County/Austin are WAY down in terms of % beds & ICU occupied from CV19. Fingers crossed people can keep their shit together and not fuck it all up with back to school.

  7. Two days in a row <100 cases for Travis County (to be fair they were weekend days but still) with yesterday's tally being 96. Travis Co hasn't had two days in a row <100 cases in a couple of months so I will still take it as movement in the right direction. While cases yesterday were low, there was a concentration in the 10-19 & 30-39 age brackets. (In terms of their normal share of cases)

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/23 vs 8/22 0 4 18 21 30 10 7 5 1 0 96
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 4.17% 18.75% 21.88% 31.25% 10.42% 7.29% 5.21% 1.04% 0.00%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.09% 26.67% 21.60% 16.31% 11.53% 6.59% 3.29% 2.45%   25,736
  8. 21 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

    I believe that 82% number is exactly the same as CDC number for over 60.

    Yep. This disease absolutely kills the elderly. I think I saw at some point that between 40-55% or so of ALL CV19 deaths had occurred in nursing homes/long term care/rehab facilities. Just crazy how it ran through those locations and absolutely killed senior citizens.

  9. Travis County CV19 Mortality Rates: Based on deaths by age group vs cases per age group through 8/22

    <1 - (0%)

    1 to 9 (0%)

    10 to 19 (0.05%)

    20 to 29 (0.03%)

    30 to 39 (0.11%)

    40 to 49 (0.33%)

    50 to 59 (1.45%)

    60 to 69 (4.61%)

    70 to 79 (9.92%)

    80 to 89 (20.63%)

    81.56% of all CV19 deaths in Travis County through 8/22 have come from the age groups 60+

     

  10. Travis County finally at the low end of their "new normal" 200-300 cases/day range with 206 yesterday.

    Fairly normal distribution with exception being 40-49 bracket. Although these were offset by reductions vs norm in the 60+ brackets so I will take that trade

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/21 vs 8/20 2 5 16 56 42 49 18 8 7 3 206
    % of Daily Change 0.97% 2.43% 7.77% 27.18% 20.39% 23.79% 8.74% 3.88% 3.40% 1.46%  
    % of Total Cases 0.49% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.56% 16.33% 11.55% 6.61% 3.30% 2.47%   25,559
  11. 19 minutes ago, Bartles said:

    U of Bama clarified that the 29 percent sample was from a small group of people experiencing symptoms and/or those who were in close contact with people experiencing symptoms. So it's good news!

    But this is why pos rate isn’t key indicator people want it to be. Look at cases/1000 people, number hospitalized etc vs pos rate. 
    there are many better ways to gauge if things going south. 
     

  12. Out of curiosity, given that event was virtual and you didn't have folks en masse traveling to a location for the event, why not make it two days. Could have done nominations etc during daytime and knocked all that procedural shit out and saved big ticket speeches etc for prime time.

    Just seems weird to hew to old approach to the convention in a virtual setting. Stretching it out over 5 days might be necessary in person for the celebration/consensus building/boondoggle nature of traveling, maintaining over 5 days virtually just seems like a momentum killer.

     

  13. Travis County yesterday saw 291 cases (last week same day was 297) but still coming off prior two days north of 300. While Travis has been living in the 200-300 range by and large, I am not loving sitting at high end of range. No big changes in the distribution (exception being <1 yo, but case count there very small)

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/20 vs 8/19 2 9 21 76 59 54 40 15 9 6 291
    % of Daily Change 0.69% 3.09% 7.22% 26.12% 20.27% 18.56% 13.75% 5.15% 3.09% 2.06%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.57% 16.27% 11.57% 6.63% 3.30% 2.48%   25,353
  14. 9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    We've discussed it up thread a bit.

    AISD would not have had enough devices available if school had started this week.   I know this for a fact.  TEA would have come down on them hard for not being ready/having enough devices, because apparently the TEA's mandate these days is to shit all over public schools as much as they can, and to only reluctantly back down/extend deadlines in the middle of a fucking worldwide pandemic.  

    I also know they've been putting a lot of the teachers through a lot of training for Canvas/Blend, etc, and they've also been putting out basic/starter curriculum for the first month or so, as a district, so that teachers have a base to start form, and they can tailor it as they see fit.  

    Now not all teachers maybe taking it as serious as they should, but they will be found out quickly and I'm sure their principals will hear about it.

    Pushing things back 4 weeks sounds like a strategic move as well - if Labor Day is the shitshow that we are all expecting, AISD wouldn't have had kids showing up for a week or two in-person, only to send them back home again.  Pushing the start date back to Sep. 8 allows them to push the in-person back to October, which gives enough of a buffer for us to figure out if Labor Day will be a shitshow of covid spreading.

    I agree they weren’t prepared, and hopefully you and Larry T. are right and they now are ready. 
    I think this is shaping up for a full year of virtual. 
    Start 9/8 with 4 weeks virtual 

    Next 4 weeks are hybrid where virtual is optional. (This is when covid cases happen at scale)

    That puts you at 11/2. Which is close enough to Thanksgiving to not make it worth hassle of bringing kids back. 
     

    Then maybe they try a week post Thanksgiving and cases appear, so then it becomes virtual til post Xmas. 
     

    Rinse, wash, repeat. 
    AISD is in tough spot but I just don’t see this year being executed well. Happy to be wrong as it’ll save me a ton of $ on additional tutors/teachers etc

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