Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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15 hours ago, Blotto said:
Falwell Jr resigns......again....for now.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/jerry-falwell-jr-officially-resigns-liberty-university/story?id=72587982
He will go on the "Art Briles" faux Christian forgiveness tour, write a couple of books, make some teary eyed appearances on Fox with the aim of finagling some sort of talk show/political commentary gig
This trope has been rolled out by Swaggert, Briles, Copeland, Bakker etc etc etc It is the way these guys role. Hate the sin, love the sinner bullshit they fling out to cover their asses.
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2 minutes ago, HeyMcFly said:with a 3% death rate in the US... fuck those 15-30 dummies we aint cancelling
That death rate is not at all representative of the age group impacted among students on college campuses. Theirs is closer to 0.03%.
Professors/Support staff perhaps, but the 3% is not the mortality number to use if discussing the 18-29 age grouping. This has been discussed at length with data on this very thread.
Not to say there aren't long term issues related to the virus but quit using 3% as a data point for college age mortality rates.
Again not advocating for playing CFB or even having campuses open, I am simply advocating for the better use of data and statistics in these discussions.
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Another good day in Travis County yesterday. Bear in mind a lot of times the Tuesday update is the TCAD weekend true up so having a lower case count day on a Tuesday is a really nice sign.
154 cases yesterday down ~110 from this time a week ago. Travis Co had been living in a new normal of 200-300 cases a day but this marks three days in a row of <200 cases so that is a nice little trend (even if two of the days were weekend days)
Higher contribution from the 20-29 age bracket (albeit still from smaller numbers) as they represented ~36% of all cases yesterday. Not ready to say this is from college return/move in etc but the zip codes that surround UT bear some monitoring. As of today 78705 has 371 cases.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/24 vs 8/23 1 6 8 55 27 25 16 9 6 1 154 % of Daily Change 0.65% 3.90% 5.19% 35.71% 17.53% 16.23% 10.39% 5.84% 3.90% 0.65% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.08% 26.72% 21.58% 16.31% 11.52% 6.59% 3.30% 2.44% 25,890 -
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4 minutes ago, ABSR said:
Appreciate this, but what I am looking for is a capacity/utilization chart for hospital beds and icu beds.
Ex. So the chart shows a moving average of 72 ICU beds due to COVID. I am trying to have a way to determine what that means from a capacity standpoint. It is going down, but is it down from a capacity of 75 so we are still critically close to over running capacity, or is capacity 1,000 and even if it goes up to 100 (while no hospitalization is good), from a capacity standpoint it should not be an immediate concern.
If I missed that info on the web site I'd appreciate being pointed in the right direction. Thanks.
Three major healthcare systems in Austin have 2,470 beds collectively with 483 ICU beds. These beds don't count the temp places set up in convention center etc.
So currently Travis County has 172 hospitalizations with 63 in ICU. This is down from a peak of 480 patients on July 20th & 159 ICU patients on July 15th.
There were 18 new admits for Travis county yesterday compared to high of 78 on July 15th.
So all in all Travis County/Austin are WAY down in terms of % beds & ICU occupied from CV19. Fingers crossed people can keep their shit together and not fuck it all up with back to school.
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Two days in a row <100 cases for Travis County (to be fair they were weekend days but still) with yesterday's tally being 96. Travis Co hasn't had two days in a row <100 cases in a couple of months so I will still take it as movement in the right direction. While cases yesterday were low, there was a concentration in the 10-19 & 30-39 age brackets. (In terms of their normal share of cases)
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/23 vs 8/22 0 4 18 21 30 10 7 5 1 0 96 % of Daily Change 0.00% 4.17% 18.75% 21.88% 31.25% 10.42% 7.29% 5.21% 1.04% 0.00% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.98% 8.09% 26.67% 21.60% 16.31% 11.53% 6.59% 3.29% 2.45% 25,736 -
21 minutes ago, dcar00 said:
I believe that 82% number is exactly the same as CDC number for over 60.
Yep. This disease absolutely kills the elderly. I think I saw at some point that between 40-55% or so of ALL CV19 deaths had occurred in nursing homes/long term care/rehab facilities. Just crazy how it ran through those locations and absolutely killed senior citizens.
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Travis County CV19 Mortality Rates: Based on deaths by age group vs cases per age group through 8/22
<1 - (0%)
1 to 9 (0%)
10 to 19 (0.05%)
20 to 29 (0.03%)
30 to 39 (0.11%)
40 to 49 (0.33%)
50 to 59 (1.45%)
60 to 69 (4.61%)
70 to 79 (9.92%)
80 to 89 (20.63%)
81.56% of all CV19 deaths in Travis County through 8/22 have come from the age groups 60+
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Travis County finally at the low end of their "new normal" 200-300 cases/day range with 206 yesterday.
Fairly normal distribution with exception being 40-49 bracket. Although these were offset by reductions vs norm in the 60+ brackets so I will take that trade
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/21 vs 8/20 2 5 16 56 42 49 18 8 7 3 206 % of Daily Change 0.97% 2.43% 7.77% 27.18% 20.39% 23.79% 8.74% 3.88% 3.40% 1.46% % of Total Cases 0.49% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.56% 16.33% 11.55% 6.61% 3.30% 2.47% 25,559 -
19 minutes ago, Bartles said:
U of Bama clarified that the 29 percent sample was from a small group of people experiencing symptoms and/or those who were in close contact with people experiencing symptoms. So it's good news!
But this is why pos rate isn’t key indicator people want it to be. Look at cases/1000 people, number hospitalized etc vs pos rate.
there are many better ways to gauge if things going south.
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Out of curiosity, given that event was virtual and you didn't have folks en masse traveling to a location for the event, why not make it two days. Could have done nominations etc during daytime and knocked all that procedural shit out and saved big ticket speeches etc for prime time.
Just seems weird to hew to old approach to the convention in a virtual setting. Stretching it out over 5 days might be necessary in person for the celebration/consensus building/boondoggle nature of traveling, maintaining over 5 days virtually just seems like a momentum killer.
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Travis County yesterday saw 291 cases (last week same day was 297) but still coming off prior two days north of 300. While Travis has been living in the 200-300 range by and large, I am not loving sitting at high end of range. No big changes in the distribution (exception being <1 yo, but case count there very small)
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/20 vs 8/19 2 9 21 76 59 54 40 15 9 6 291 % of Daily Change 0.69% 3.09% 7.22% 26.12% 20.27% 18.56% 13.75% 5.15% 3.09% 2.06% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.57% 16.27% 11.57% 6.63% 3.30% 2.48% 25,353 -
9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:
We've discussed it up thread a bit.
AISD would not have had enough devices available if school had started this week. I know this for a fact. TEA would have come down on them hard for not being ready/having enough devices, because apparently the TEA's mandate these days is to shit all over public schools as much as they can, and to only reluctantly back down/extend deadlines in the middle of a fucking worldwide pandemic.
I also know they've been putting a lot of the teachers through a lot of training for Canvas/Blend, etc, and they've also been putting out basic/starter curriculum for the first month or so, as a district, so that teachers have a base to start form, and they can tailor it as they see fit.
Now not all teachers maybe taking it as serious as they should, but they will be found out quickly and I'm sure their principals will hear about it.
Pushing things back 4 weeks sounds like a strategic move as well - if Labor Day is the shitshow that we are all expecting, AISD wouldn't have had kids showing up for a week or two in-person, only to send them back home again. Pushing the start date back to Sep. 8 allows them to push the in-person back to October, which gives enough of a buffer for us to figure out if Labor Day will be a shitshow of covid spreading.
I agree they weren’t prepared, and hopefully you and Larry T. are right and they now are ready.
I think this is shaping up for a full year of virtual.
Start 9/8 with 4 weeks virtualNext 4 weeks are hybrid where virtual is optional. (This is when covid cases happen at scale)
That puts you at 11/2. Which is close enough to Thanksgiving to not make it worth hassle of bringing kids back.
Then maybe they try a week post Thanksgiving and cases appear, so then it becomes virtual til post Xmas.
Rinse, wash, repeat.
AISD is in tough spot but I just don’t see this year being executed well. Happy to be wrong as it’ll save me a ton of $ on additional tutors/teachers etc -
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29 minutes ago, victory88 said:
Fenves hated Herman. I don't think anyone will argue that Herman was quite arrogant walking into the Texas job. He's also brought his fair share of embarrassing press with the stripper incident and the middle fingers pointed to the camera. The last few seasons have humbled him as he knows he'll get booted out the door without any sympathy unlike Charlie Strong. If we have success, I hope he's learned how to behave.
I actually like the idea of a total prick HC that everyone hates. This way when he fucks up and starts to lose regularly he gets fired with impunity. FUPM & CS were well liked so their firings were much more painful then they needed to be.
Herman's assholishness plays to UT's benefit in the long run.
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Here is some mortality data. Will work to add more applicable age groups as it seems that everyone reports it differently (in terms of age group buckets they use)
Travis County - 10 - 19 years old: 0.05% Mortality Rate, 20-29: 0.03% Mortality Rate (As of 8/15 - Travis County runs week in appears)
49 states + NYC (from American Academy of Pediatricians & Children's Hospital Association) - This report uses a 0-18 to 20 age range (depending on state) - The mortality rate this report shows is 0.02% - The highest rate for any state is 0.03% and 20 states have had zero child deaths.
The CDC as of 8/19 for the 18-29 age group shows a total # of deaths from CV19 of 644. Cases are 862,203. Mortality Rate for the 18-29 age group is 0.07%. This data set is incomplete in aggregate as I think some cases are excluded as they don't have age captured. But it is directional.
https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographics
There are as I mention a number of ways that people are reporting the age groups mortality information but none of them, whichever you choose to use go above 1%. Most are well below.
I would also argue that there have been ZERO studies done of mortality rate of truly physically fit young people (such as football players) whereas there was a report released last week in the Annals of Internal Medicine that shows absolutely that BMI scores >30 (and especially 40+) cause between ~2x to 12x (30 - 45BMI spread) likelihood of dying from CV19.
I am not advocating for playing. I will say though that the data (ONLY in terms of mortality) shows a very low chance of a player dying. That is NOT to say there couldn't be other long term impacts to player health and safety. I would argue though that if you are having students on campus in any form you have already thrown that concern out the window.
The point I would make is I do believe that players at Tier1 schools that can afford rapid testing and top flight care have their players in a much better spot than a typical student.
The argument to me is not whether or not you play football but to me it is do you allow schools to be open at all. Blaming football for "killing kids with CV19" to me is a specious argument at best. Blaming schools for trying and maintain exorbitant tuition and fees is the bigger discussion IMO.
tl:dr - data shows CV19 really doesn't kill young people, but we don't know if it fucks them up, also issue isn't in playing football but in opening schools at all
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5 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:
If my school were to start on Monday, we would be ready. Teachers have been assigned students, teachers have been trained, blend courses are loaded and ready. Parents/students will have a one stop shop for all assignments and links. Schedules for students have been out for over a week. We have done numerous zoom meetings with 250+ parents so they should be informed. There will be glitches along the way but there is no reason for this to be a disaster.
Hopefully that holds for rest of AISD. I just have little faith that Casis & O'Henry will be squared away. Fingers crossed as my boys are in tough years (5th & 8th) to have poorly executed virtual teaching etc. I am prepared already to hire tutors/supplemental teaches as my 5th grader is being told he will only have 90 mins of virtual instruction a day.(8th grader 4hrs) Will need to find a way to occupy them productively for the other hours in the day.
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5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:
FCB...FCB...FCB...FCB...
I do agree running more 10 personnel in 2020 needs to happen with this existing roster. Really hoping they're currently just spending a lot of time on their base packages, with the intention of practicing a ton more 11 stuff after the UTEP game...
I just know that if I see the TE split wide or in the slot as a receiver when UT goes back to 10 and that leaves Whittington or Smith (or any other better receiving option) on bench so our shitastic TE consortium can stay on field because Herman's binder says this "tricks" the defense I will completely come unglued. That stupid shit NEVER worked the past couple of seasons.
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2nd straight day over 300 (306). Austin had been showing a nice trend in the 200-300 range with dips into the mid 100s but the past two days aren't great. A week ago was 172 cases so this is a pretty good WoW jump as well. Big spike in the 20-29 grouping with it being ~8pts higher than the normal share of cases they represent.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 8/19 vs 8/18 0 9 28 105 60 31 32 24 13 4 306 % of Daily Change 0.00% 2.94% 9.15% 34.31% 19.61% 10.13% 10.46% 7.84% 4.25% 1.31% % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.08% 26.66% 21.59% 16.24% 11.54% 6.65% 3.30% 2.48% 25,062



2020 Fall Camp Thread
in Football
Between this and the Brewer update earlier, I am having to strain my sarcasm filter.