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BrazilHorn

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. Travis County finally at the low end of their "new normal" 200-300 cases/day range with 206 yesterday.

    Fairly normal distribution with exception being 40-49 bracket. Although these were offset by reductions vs norm in the 60+ brackets so I will take that trade

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/21 vs 8/20 2 5 16 56 42 49 18 8 7 3 206
    % of Daily Change 0.97% 2.43% 7.77% 27.18% 20.39% 23.79% 8.74% 3.88% 3.40% 1.46%  
    % of Total Cases 0.49% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.56% 16.33% 11.55% 6.61% 3.30% 2.47%   25,559
  2. 19 minutes ago, Bartles said:

    U of Bama clarified that the 29 percent sample was from a small group of people experiencing symptoms and/or those who were in close contact with people experiencing symptoms. So it's good news!

    But this is why pos rate isn’t key indicator people want it to be. Look at cases/1000 people, number hospitalized etc vs pos rate. 
    there are many better ways to gauge if things going south. 
     

  3. Out of curiosity, given that event was virtual and you didn't have folks en masse traveling to a location for the event, why not make it two days. Could have done nominations etc during daytime and knocked all that procedural shit out and saved big ticket speeches etc for prime time.

    Just seems weird to hew to old approach to the convention in a virtual setting. Stretching it out over 5 days might be necessary in person for the celebration/consensus building/boondoggle nature of traveling, maintaining over 5 days virtually just seems like a momentum killer.

     

  4. Travis County yesterday saw 291 cases (last week same day was 297) but still coming off prior two days north of 300. While Travis has been living in the 200-300 range by and large, I am not loving sitting at high end of range. No big changes in the distribution (exception being <1 yo, but case count there very small)

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/20 vs 8/19 2 9 21 76 59 54 40 15 9 6 291
    % of Daily Change 0.69% 3.09% 7.22% 26.12% 20.27% 18.56% 13.75% 5.15% 3.09% 2.06%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.07% 26.66% 21.57% 16.27% 11.57% 6.63% 3.30% 2.48%   25,353
    • Hook 'Em 2
  5. 9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

    We've discussed it up thread a bit.

    AISD would not have had enough devices available if school had started this week.   I know this for a fact.  TEA would have come down on them hard for not being ready/having enough devices, because apparently the TEA's mandate these days is to shit all over public schools as much as they can, and to only reluctantly back down/extend deadlines in the middle of a fucking worldwide pandemic.  

    I also know they've been putting a lot of the teachers through a lot of training for Canvas/Blend, etc, and they've also been putting out basic/starter curriculum for the first month or so, as a district, so that teachers have a base to start form, and they can tailor it as they see fit.  

    Now not all teachers maybe taking it as serious as they should, but they will be found out quickly and I'm sure their principals will hear about it.

    Pushing things back 4 weeks sounds like a strategic move as well - if Labor Day is the shitshow that we are all expecting, AISD wouldn't have had kids showing up for a week or two in-person, only to send them back home again.  Pushing the start date back to Sep. 8 allows them to push the in-person back to October, which gives enough of a buffer for us to figure out if Labor Day will be a shitshow of covid spreading.

    I agree they weren’t prepared, and hopefully you and Larry T. are right and they now are ready. 
    I think this is shaping up for a full year of virtual. 
    Start 9/8 with 4 weeks virtual 

    Next 4 weeks are hybrid where virtual is optional. (This is when covid cases happen at scale)

    That puts you at 11/2. Which is close enough to Thanksgiving to not make it worth hassle of bringing kids back. 
     

    Then maybe they try a week post Thanksgiving and cases appear, so then it becomes virtual til post Xmas. 
     

    Rinse, wash, repeat. 
    AISD is in tough spot but I just don’t see this year being executed well. Happy to be wrong as it’ll save me a ton of $ on additional tutors/teachers etc

  6. 29 minutes ago, victory88 said:

    Fenves hated Herman.  I don't think anyone will argue that Herman was quite arrogant walking into the Texas job.  He's also brought his fair share of embarrassing press with the stripper incident and the middle fingers pointed to the camera.  The last few seasons have humbled him as he knows he'll get booted out the door without any sympathy unlike Charlie Strong.  If we have success, I hope he's learned how to behave.

    I actually like the idea of a total prick HC that everyone hates. This way when he fucks up and starts to lose regularly he gets fired with impunity. FUPM & CS were well liked so their firings were much more painful then they needed to be.

    Herman's assholishness plays to UT's benefit in the long run.

  7. Here is some mortality data. Will work to add more applicable age groups as it seems that everyone reports it differently (in terms of age group buckets they use)

    Travis County - 10 - 19 years old: 0.05% Mortality Rate, 20-29: 0.03% Mortality Rate (As of 8/15 - Travis County runs week in appears)

    49 states + NYC (from American Academy of Pediatricians & Children's Hospital Association) - This report uses a 0-18 to 20  age range (depending on state) - The mortality rate this report shows is 0.02% - The highest rate for any state is 0.03% and 20 states have had zero child deaths.

    https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 8.13.20 FINAL v2.pdf

    The CDC as of 8/19 for the 18-29 age group shows a total # of deaths from CV19 of 644. Cases are 862,203. Mortality Rate for the 18-29 age group is 0.07%. This data set is incomplete in aggregate as I think some cases are excluded as they don't have age captured. But it is directional.

    https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/index.html#demographics

    There are as I mention a number of ways that people are reporting the age groups mortality information but none of them, whichever you choose to use go above 1%. Most are well below.

    I would also argue that there have been ZERO studies done of mortality rate of truly physically fit young people (such as football players) whereas there was a report released last week in the Annals of Internal Medicine that shows absolutely that BMI scores >30 (and especially 40+) cause between ~2x to 12x (30 - 45BMI spread) likelihood of dying from CV19.

    I am not advocating for playing. I will say though that the data (ONLY in terms of mortality) shows a very low chance of a player dying. That is NOT to say there couldn't be other long term impacts to player health and safety. I would argue though that if you are having students on campus in any form you have already thrown that concern out the window.

    The point I would make is I do believe that players at Tier1 schools that can afford rapid testing and top flight care have their players in a much better spot than a typical student.

    The argument to me is not whether or not you play football but to me it is do you allow schools to be open at all. Blaming football for "killing kids with CV19" to me is a specious argument at best. Blaming schools for trying and maintain exorbitant tuition and fees is the bigger discussion IMO.

    tl:dr - data shows CV19 really doesn't kill young people, but we don't know if it fucks them up, also issue isn't in playing football but in opening schools at all

     

     

    • Hook 'Em 5
    • Like 4
  8. 5 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

    If my school were to start on Monday, we would be ready. Teachers have been assigned students, teachers have been trained, blend courses are loaded and ready. Parents/students will have a one stop shop for all assignments and links. Schedules for students have been out for over a week. We have done numerous zoom meetings with 250+ parents so they should be informed. There will be glitches along the way but there is no reason for this to be a disaster.

    Hopefully that holds for rest of AISD. I just have little faith that Casis & O'Henry will be squared away. Fingers crossed as my boys are in tough years (5th & 8th) to have poorly executed virtual teaching etc. I am prepared already to hire tutors/supplemental teaches as my 5th grader is being told he will only have 90 mins of virtual instruction a day.(8th grader 4hrs)  Will need to find a way to occupy them productively for the other hours in the day.

     

  9. 5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

    FCB...FCB...FCB...FCB...  

    I do agree running more 10 personnel in 2020 needs to happen with this existing roster.  Really hoping they're currently just spending a lot of time on their base packages, with the intention of practicing a ton more 11 stuff after the UTEP game...

    I just know that if I see the TE split wide or in the slot as a receiver when UT goes back to 10 and that leaves Whittington or Smith (or any other better receiving option) on bench so our shitastic TE consortium can stay on field because Herman's binder says this "tricks" the defense I will completely come unglued. That stupid shit NEVER worked the past couple of seasons.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  10. 2nd straight day over 300 (306). Austin had been showing a nice trend in the 200-300 range with dips into the mid 100s but the past two days aren't great. A week ago was 172 cases so this is a pretty good WoW jump as well. Big spike in the 20-29 grouping with it being ~8pts higher than the normal share of cases they represent.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/19 vs 8/18 0 9 28 105 60 31 32 24 13 4 306
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 2.94% 9.15% 34.31% 19.61% 10.13% 10.46% 7.84% 4.25% 1.31%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.08% 26.66% 21.59% 16.24% 11.54% 6.65% 3.30% 2.48%   25,062
    • Hook 'Em 1
  11. I have zero confidence AISD will even come close to pulling off being ready for virtual learning on 9/8.

    From what I am hearing they delayed start as very few teachers just weren't remotely prepared to start on the original back to school date.

    Just a feeling overall I have that it is just going to be a disaster and another semester just wasted. (Spring was an absolute joke (while understandable))

    Fingers crossed

  12. 3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

    Well, Darwin applauds the Boomer Remover disease.

    This. Any dipshit who attended Sturgis this year gets ZERO pity from me if they get CV19. I only feel bad for any of the people that unwittingly infect on the way home at gas stations, restaurants, hotels etc

    Just nuts this event was allowed to happen

    • Hook 'Em 1
  13. Wife (no pics) and I finished "Unorthodox" last night (only 4 episodes so is quick watch)

    follows an orthodox Jewish woman who breaks away from her home in NYC and makes her way to Berlin (where her mother is) and her husband's efforts to find her and bring her back. Some good, tense moments and the actress who plays the main role does a good job of emulating someone who is just experiencing the things people that are not orthodox Jews take for granted.

     

  14. That female police officer should not be a cop. Clearly not capable of handling a conflict like that. Why couldn't they have tasered that dude in the store?

    She ditches her partner (who had run and hid behind the counter) and then screamed when guy ran at her and then waited until other cops had distracted him and provided numbers and shot him (where if she had missed she would have hit (at least it looked like) another cop)

    Just a completely bad hire. Not saying that dude wasn't crazy but the moment you had 4 on 1 and the 1 is unarmed and has a yappy dog with him you probably can resort to non-lethal.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  15. 6 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

    I sold some golf gear at play it again sports a few weeks ago and they had plenty of dumbbells and kettlebells. 

    This. They have some. Saw from 5 to like 70lb dumbbells.

    They get them hit or miss.

    Their KB are a little limited (at least location off Anderson Ln) but they had some slam balls (picked up a 25lb one last week)

  16. Travis county jumped over 300 cases yesterday with 349. Last week Tuesday was 296 cases so even with the normal Tuesday true up this is a high day and the highest day since July 21st.

    Fairly even distribution across the age groups so no real "A-has" here.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 8/18 vs 8/17 2 10 26 99 82 59 35 24 8 4 349
    % of Daily Change 0.57% 2.87% 7.45% 28.37% 23.50% 16.91% 10.03% 6.88% 2.29% 1.15%  
    % of Total Cases 0.48% 2.97% 8.07% 26.57% 21.61% 16.32% 11.56% 6.64% 3.29% 2.50%   24,756
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