Jump to content

The Royal We

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    2010
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by The Royal We

  1. 3 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

    Don’t jump, The Dude. This is temporary. Back at $25 or so by June/July. Back to normalcy in 2H’21. Go buy some properties. 

    Oh I know.  I got nothing to jump to - I'm a one trick pony.

    I wish I had more dry powder.

  2. Agreed.  His only hope is that he wins a few BSEE contracts to plug orphaned wells, but that's not moving at the moment either.  That would be a fantastic stimulus plan - plugging wells/removing platforms that are legit dangerous while also keeping lots of blue collar workers in S. Louisiana employed.

    He also told me that BSEE won't approve any permits at the moment and that they may actually play a role in curtailing production offshore by mandating all workers on platforms have to come back home.  That would be some un-american shit, so it's probably going to be crammed through by our current administration. 

  3. Man, I'm really fighting against the urge to move my 401k into cash at this point.  I'm only 40 and know it's usually unwise to fight against the brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and try to time things, but the irrationality of the market rallying into the face of depression level unemployment and earnings is tough to ignore.

  4. 1 hour ago, stone oak said:

    At the company I work for, we are catching up on our P&A liability this year because service companies are working for pennies on the dollar just to stay afloat.

    That's the worst silver lining I think I've ever heard.

    I have a client that runs P&A spreads in state waters and on the shelf and he has told me recently that there is a big bag of nothing going on for him at the moment.  And I think his rates have had very little margin in them for the last 18 months+.  I hope he can hang on through this but I think it's a long shot.

  5. I don't really understand the teeth gnashing over the way NYC is counting deaths.  Even with the more liberal method of counting deaths that they adjusted to yesterday, it's still much more conservative than the way the CDC estimates seasonal flu and swine flu deaths.

    The CDC will eventually do this with CV 19 as well and it will likely be much higher than what the new NYC method counts now.

    Quote

    Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza?

    Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. It has been recognized for many years that influenza is underreported on death certificates. There may be several reasons for underreporting, including that patients aren’t always tested for seasonal influenza virus infection, particularly older adults who are at greatest risk of seasonal influenza complications and death. Even if a patient is tested for influenza, influenza virus infection may not be identified because the influenza virus is only detectable for a limited number of days  after infection and many people don’t seek medical care in this interval. Additionally, some deaths – particularly among those 65 years and older – are associated with secondary complications of influenza (including bacterial pneumonias). For these and other reasons, modeling strategies are commonly used to estimate flu-associated deaths. Only counting deaths where influenza was recorded on a death certificate would be a gross underestimation of influenza’s true impact.

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#Influenza-Associated-Deaths

    • Like 3
  6. I got the bass sled back at the end of last week and have been working it through the break-in process.  Has anyone done this before?

    I've been letting it get really warmed up before increasing the throttle much at all and then don't exceed 3,500 rpms for the first 5 hours.  With the way this boat is set up, it's a pain to get up on a plane without exceeding 3,500.  It stands straight up and plows for a while before leveling out so I have to make sure I've got a wide open lake in front of me.

    The difference in the strength of the tell tale stream with the new lower unit is incredible.

    • Like 1
  7. 2 hours ago, Bevo said:

    Wait till they try to get the insurance company to pay.

    Naw man, this was underwritten in the Contingency Market at Lloyd's.  I bet they already have a check in hand.

    They aren't the cheapest, but if you have a valid claim then they are going to pay and they are going to pay quickly.  The numbers that I heard from the Lloyd's brokers that I work with is that Wimbledon starting buying this cover in 2003 after SARS and has paid around 1.2mm per year for it.

    • Like 1
  8. 12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

    "The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most," the HHS spokesperson said.

    Sometimes you need to read past the headlines...

     

    I read it, but I don't really see how your quoted section addresses the ability of smaller communities to fund the the testing supplies or LabCorp type contracts.  Flexibility and autonomy sound great, but does that mean they will continue to fund the areas where resources are needed but they can't pay for it?

    • Like 1
  9. 5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

    I think this is more of an indication that the Federal Government sees the need for local governments to handle local testing and for the Feds to focus on the country-wide need to get the economy going/save jobs. And I hate the word "defunding". 

    Where the hell are small rural communities and even larger cities in poor states going to get the funds to pay for local testing?  Call it defunding, call it cut off, call it whatever you want, but if the US govt is dumping money all over the place, then cutting funds for testing seems insane.  That's going to be a cornerstone of any plan to dig our way out of this - failure to continue funding tests is going to end up costing us a hell of a lot more on the other end.

    • Like 9
  10. That sounds like what happened to me.  It would still fire up just fine but sounded like the whole thing was going to come flying apart when I gave it any throttle.  I thought it was going to be the powerhead, so I'm feeling a little lucky to get out with "only" a new lower unit.

  11. Got damn, that is a very expensive hobby.

    My bass sled is in the shop at the moment getting a new lower unit.  I was running wide open trying to get to one more hole before dark (stupidly) and heard some god awful sounds when I powered down.  Idled back home and got the diagnosis from the shop last Friday.  It's a '96 Mercury 225, but the mechanic said they only use SEI lower units when replacing. It comes with a 3 year warranty.

    I'm ready to get it back.  Those late evening therapy sessions are much needed at the moment.

  12. 12 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

    Yep. I don't remember which local station it was, or know how accurate the report was, but it was stated this weekend that Nacogdoches went from 2 or 3 cases to the second highest in East Texas over a 24 hour period.

    After watching people totally disregard social distancing and SIP suggestions I'm not one damned bit surprised.  Bunch of stupid fucks in my neck of the woods.

    I'm in Nac as well and have been disappointed in how slow the general population was in taking this seriously.  If you drive past Lowe's, the parking lot usually looks like a normal day last year.  Walmart has been slammed too, but that's more understandable given how people from all over the county come in to get their shopping done there. I think the County leadership has done a pretty good job of communicating and had drive through testing set up as soon as we had our first positive case. 

    I really hope things don't shake loose here.  https://infection2020.com/  - Currently showing 21 cases and 2 deaths.

  13. 2 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    US - DEATHS, 3,759 ↑ 27% (+796 past 24hr),
    US - CONFIRMED CASES 184,395 ↑ 15% (+24310 past 24hr)

    we just passed 9/11 in total deaths (and by a lot). that is blood on Trump's hands

    Where are you getting your data from?  Worldometers and 1point3acres have not posted complete data yet for today.

  14. I got a random email from an old client last night asking me for insurance pricing projections on them using some idle tank batteries to store physical oil.  They P&A'd most all of their wells in South Texas but I guess they still hadn't moved all the old batteries out of there yet.  I don't know how much exactly how much capacity he has, but I think it's ~5,000 bbls or so. 

    He pretty much rolled up the sidewalks on his company back in 2016, but shooters gonna shoot I guess.

  15. I'm a lowly insurance broker, but 95% of my clients are E&P companies - and 50%+ of those are PE backed companies.  Their whole business model has been collapsing underneath them since 2018 or so.  The whole build for 3-5 years and flip it out to someone larger strategy starts to fall apart pretty fast when the number of buyers shrinks rapidly. 

    I have a few clients that always seem to be out in front of the curve that are well hedged through the rest of '20 and most of '21, but everyone else will be lucky to make it.  My largest client filed last fall and I've picked up a few of the new companies that scooped up some of their assets, but it's nowhere near the size (revenue to my firm) of the original client.  This downturn is going to be a reckoning even for people like me who are on the fringes of the oil and gas business.

    And my side hustles have been investments in a mineral fund, a non-op WI fund, and a tiny equity stake in a small E&P company.  FML.  Write-offs for years - assuming I have anything to write if off against.

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...