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The Royal We

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by The Royal We

  1. 1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

    Hmmm. So they didn't change the production calcs to start including condensate, but the EIA did make changes to their adjustment factor?

    I found the original twitter thread referenced in your PDF and none of it seems nefarious or out of bounds to me, but a lot of it is admittedly over my head.

    This chart from his thread shows how their adjustments have changed over time. There's a big dip in the monthly average adjustment the second half of of '22 at the same time the EIA's overall production numbers were still increasing - yea? It's a bit of a black box for me, but I don't see how you can say the EIA's daily production number is bogus because of their adjustments. What am I missing?

    image.jpeg.a1e2264ef02349764ef07bcb13c66a67.jpeg

     

    image.thumb.png.0ca3c9f3e621a46035faba94b3966830.png

  2. 1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

    People say stupid shit. I get speakers for that deal now, and I think we have upgraded considerably. I got Sheffield and Double Eagle and Black Mountain and some high profile small/midcap investment bankers you’d know specializing in A&D just this year. Having said that, there is one Ghawar and I doubt it’ll ever be repeated. The Barnett comment was monumentally stupid. However, renewables have terrible energy returns on investment. All renewable streams. Terrible. There will likely be a walk back of their % of the mix. 

    I found my research article. How do I upload PDFs here without taking 4 separate pics and uploading them?

    The Barnett comment is pretty hilarious in retrospect. In his defense this was probably in 06 or 07 when unconventional plays were really just getting rolling. Renewables can't compete on ROI, but they do contribute significantly to the electricity supply at this time - this guy was claiming it was impossible to scale them up fast enough to ever make a dent because they were only contributing <1% at that time.

    I think you can just click on "choose files" and attach a PDF to your post. It may not appear as an embedded image but will be there.

  3. On 8/1/2024 at 6:19 PM, Lurch said:

    Had a fun fitting session at Club Champion

    Switching to 70g reg graphite iron shafts (from 105g reg steel) and going with Vice (!) VGI02 6i - AW. Feel and distance were significantly better. I had no idea what I was hitting throughout the session until we looked at results. I didn’t even know they carried Vice!

    We weren’t able to improve vs my TSR4 driver stats (using same shaft they put me on back in 2018!) and it looks like speed training is my only option there.

    We think we can improve my 3w quite a bit but I was getting gassed and decided to put that off for now as the variance was starting to get pretty wide.

    Also confirmed what I feared with my putter. I had switched to a flatso without counter weights and the only way I could find stability was to grip down, fucking up my posture. Reverting back now to what was working in the past. I was pretty sure that’s what he’d see, but it was cool to see it prove out on their monitor.

    I'd love to do this one of these days. I've been playing golf for 35+ years and have always played hand me downs or off the shelf clubs. I don't get to play that much these days with 3 kids and all the associated activities, but I've been stuck around 9-10 index for years now. I think changing to more forgiving irons from my 15 year old AP2s might help moderate my missed shots, which tend to be horrendous right now (usually a 30+ yard left pull/hook).

  4. 3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

    The current price of crude at $78-80 is reasonably valued based only on commercial inventories. It is no coincidence oil bottomed in June 2023 when US stopped buying SPR, and it promptly rallied 20%. It has been volatile due to recession fears but crude consumption doesn’t go down in a recession. Without SPR we’d have remained at $100 or more for the last 2 years, absent some OPEC removal of cuts (that I am not sure they could supply anyway). 

    I’m adamant about oil being higher and significantly higher for awhile from where we are now. 

    And we’re not at record production. @The Royal We I’ll find you material and post here. I’m looking. Wasn’t a DPC rando luncheon speaker. 

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    I really enjoyed going to the DPC luncheons every month years ago, but looking back on some of the subject matter and speakers is a little cringy. The engineer who spent his  free time researching Global Warming as a hobby gave us a talk about how the climate wasn't really changing, the grizzled industry veteran who said something to the effect of "there's only ever been one Ghawar field, only one Prudhoe Bay, only one Spindletop, and there will only ever be one Barnett Shale (mic drop)", the engineer that said there's no chance that wind and solar will ever make a meaningful contribution to the electricity mix, etc.

    "We're not at record production" when all of the data I've seen pretty clearly shows that we are, in fact, at record production sounds like something you heard there. But I'll take your word for it, wait patiently, and consider any information you have to the contrary with an open mind.

  5. 29 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

    This was dated 9 years ago. The change occurred in the last 2. I’ll look for it. Didn’t mean to say refined product as in gasoline. Talking about condensate. It has the net effect of inflating our daily production by like 500-800k bopd. 

    No offense, but this sounds like some copium you heard from a luncheon speaker at the DPC...

    Here's another article that specifically mentions the EIA including condensate in their data back in 2015:

    "It is also important to note that EIA's published estimates include lease condensate, while some tables that TRRC provides tabulate crude oil and lease condensate separately. Condensate accounts for about 15% of the total crude oil and condensate volumes produced in the state of Texas."

    https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=22012

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  6. 55 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

     But that percentage increase is minuscule and the only reason we are setting records is because daily oil in 2019 was just that, whereas now the figure includes oil and refined product. I do not understand why the market doesn’t even talk about this. 

    Where did you get this information? I did a little bit of digging and can't see any mention of refined products being included in the daily production metrics or when this methodology changed. This is the only thing I can find about changes being made to the way they compile data.

    https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/1069355-eia-to-change-crude-production-report-method

     

  7. 6 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

    I will say that most of my friends that still support him are the less intelligent ones. It’s almost a perfect correlation. 

    This is partly true for me too. I grew up in a small town and it's mostly the dudes who never moved away that still vocally support Trump.

    But I also see it from other people who I know are smart. I work from home most days but was in our office in Houston this week and one of the leaders of our group, a very smart man but definitely a boomer, had a fucking 24x12 photo on his desk of Trump's post-shooting-fist-in-air pose. He wanted to chit chat with me but I just shook my head and kept walking down the hall. I just can't get my head around it.

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  8. 9 hours ago, Pimphand said:

    Never was an Elon fan but his 45 billion purchase of twitter proved you dipshits live in a controlled simulation and instead of being thankful you are all just a bunch of cocksmokers who will defend your slavers.

    Sorry about your brain worms bro.

    You think Elron is thankful for that $45bn being valued at <$12bn now? hE's A gENiuS!!!!!!1!!!!!!!one!!!!

    image.thumb.png.0a39d6e56c82279421a36c377e3363f7.png

    https://fortune.com/2024/03/30/fidelity-x-stake-73-decline-since-elon-musk-twitter-takeover/

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