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CleverNickname

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Everything posted by CleverNickname

  1. FWIW annually between 10M and 50M get the flu in the US since 2010. And that's with 40% of adults getting flu shots (that are admittedly often no better than 2/3 effective and some years far worse) to help with herd immunity. CFR seems to be just under 1%. Call it 0.85%. That would kill 170k if 20M caught it (if 6.7% caught it). If 40% caught it, you're talking 1M dead in the US alone.
  2. Diamond Princess by the numbers as of 2/28 (so about 10 days after most released): 691 of 3700 passengers confirmed: 19% 328 of 691 asymptomatic: 47% 6 of 691 dead: 0.87% cfr or 1.6% of symptomatic cases We will see how many more deaths of that 691/328. I would he surprised if it goes more than 12. But we are still in the "oh fuck I'm dead" window. Those numbers exist within an environment pretty excellent medical care (no shortages of ICU intervention) but a uniquely old skewing population. Preliminary lessons: • So "only" 20% got it in atypically bad environment, though there was really on 1 or 2 weeks of transmission. Not sure if that is a good or bad fact for the rest of the world. • About half the cases were asymptomatic. • Death rate likely no worse than maybe 1% - though you could totally make a more severe interpretation. I figure the old age of the passengers is offset by the number of asymptomatic cases. A normal population would be healthier but we wouldn't catch the mild cases so the denominator would be illusory. One I interesting thing I read about SARS that it is under reported is how many of the survivors are basically on disability the rest of their lives. They didn't die, but many had permanent lung damage. That would suck.
  3. This is a stupid joke but I have no regrets:
  4. Google tells me that US averages 20 full mechanical ventilators per 100k of people. So Austin MSA of 1M better not have more than 200-300 severe cases requiring ventilators at any one time. Checking some stats; about 7% of beds can do full ventilation (62,188 ventilators and 924,107 staffed beds in entire US).
  5. Gaming this out for ATX with wild ass guess variables. There are about 5000 hospital beds in the Austin area. Assume 100% of them are equipped with ventilators and oxygen (so every bed could help a Covid19 patient with severe symptoms). Figure maybe 50% of those beds are needed for non-Covid reasons. So: 2500 beds. Select your own WAG numbers. Studies say maybe 15% need hospitalization. But let's say only 1/3 really need ICU treatment and the other 2/3 just need IV hydration and care. 2500 / .05 = 50,000. It would take 50k active cases to put hospitals at all they can handle. If more pessimistic assumptions: 15% need real ICU care. 2500/0.15 = 16.6k cases. Which means if more than that number people with severe cases simply die. Even more pessimistic: maybe only 1000 ventilators (still very high, maybe a doc can chime in): 1000 / .15 = 6670 cases. So 20k cases at the same time.... 13k would die.
  6. https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/10/29/20936921/usaid-predict-pandemic-preparedness
  7. Don't worry guys. WHO says not a pandemic, won't be a pandemic... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says-no-longer-uses-pandemic-category-but-virus-still-emergency-idUSKCN20I0N8?utm_source=reddit.com
  8. And now I check CNN website and they've jump into virus coverage big time.
  9. Why does every media outlet keep pushing "actually flu is the real danger" stories? Guess what, new virus with unknown R0 and unknown CFR is scary as shit. Seems so bizarre the aren't pimping Covid big time. Seems like only NYTimes has steady coverage.
  10. Link found at the hive of scum and villainy that is Reddit (they did a flip and China_Flu is the place for Crazy to gather): http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/recommendations.html It's a proposed pandemic playbook. I mean, #2, 5, and 6 really do emphasize downplaying concerns and prioritizing the economy. And (through paranoid eyes) #7 discusses how to juke public perception.
  11. I can confirm I just listed old folks running for president off the top of my dome, and those names were not in order by chronological age (accept by accident).
  12. What are the odds Covid19 kills one of the major olds running for president? Trump, Biden, Warren, and Sanders are old. Bloomberg is crazy old, too.
  13. +15k cases, but that's from changing criteria. So really, who the hell knows?
  14. some actual evidence that the China death numbers are juked. Japanese victim (in Wuhan) dies of "viral pneumonia" and technically not listed as coronavirus. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-updates-u-s-japanese-citizens-die-wuhan-global-deaths-n1132951
  15. https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225147786800267264?s=20
  16. Crazy about the ship quarantine... don't you have to restart the 14 day quarantine period every time there is a new case? On day 13 there might be 50 new folks who have new (and infectious) cases. It just doesn't actually make any sense to keep them all together. It's not like those 500 folks are all exposed just one time X days ago. And you can't really just say everyone has to stay in their rooms, right?
  17. 2 new cases in HK, no china contact. So it is spreading there, locally. S. Korean woman picked up a case travelling to Thailand.
  18. Thought this post was very good: https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/evt0bt/30_jan_wuhan_coronavirus_future_projections_and/
  19. Sorry, not sorry. Credible rape accusations mean he is a likely rapist. I'm sure Art Briles walks old ladies across the street, too.
  20. Every study poll puts the R0 well above the flu. Seasonal fly is median of 1.3; this 2019-nCoV has a similar R0 to SARS, currently estimated at 2.6. Which is lucky, as it appears to be infectious before symptoms show (unlike SARS). Normal flu mortality is about 0.1%, SARS was 11%. Estimates for this are difficult since I'm not sure you can trust the PRC numbers. Probably no worse than 3%, maybe well lower if the true number of cases is order(s) of magnitude greater. Presumably it's harder to substantially juke death stats while many infected might never get tested (shortages) or never be sick enough to need a hospital.
  21. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
  22. Kobe: NBA champion gold medalist philanthropist supporter of women's basketball rapist
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