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Posts posted by Tuco
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6 minutes ago, 'stache said:
Won’t Trump also do Rogan? I hope he publicly says that he’ll only do Rogan if he refuses to invite Harris and Rogan tells him to fuck off. I know he wouldn’t say it that way because he loves Trump but I could see him saying he’s not going to avoid Harris because Trump asked him to and makes him look like real pussy.
Cool. I am all about getting Trump unscripted on any neutral media available.
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5 minutes ago, royiv said:
That audience is the lowest IQ group of mouth breathers you can find.
They get the same number of votes as Nobel Prize winners. Should any campaign ignore idiots?
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Well he made the prediction to congress on February 5 and Russian invaded on February 24. Obviously no material foreign aid was forthcoming in that 19 day window.
He is gone now so it doesn't really matter but no person in the world had access to as much intelligence regarding both situations as he did and he was just spectacularly wrong. he should have been fired or, at a minimum, demoted to a lesser position.
Do you want a transcript of his statement? Cuz all I’m finding is FoxNews sources. And context of a sentence like that would be pretty important. -
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I just can’t square the district polling and large sample polls of Latino voters, Asian voters, young voters and black voters with the state polls and tiny sub-samples in those polls. They don’t add up.
The district polling was a huge warning sign in 2016, as was the GOP’s performance in special elections leading up to 2016. It’s been the exact opposite this year. There will have been signs if she wins easily.
Debbie Dingell at this time in 2016 was screaming that Hillary was going to lose Michigan. A lot of people just hand waved it away as typical pre-election BS. Some of these state politicians know their state very well and will sound the alarms. I haven’t seen much of that
For me we have two major data points for Trump presidential elections: 2016 and 2020. In those events, we have three main variables: Trump, Dem Candidate, and the public.
I think 2024 is the worst version of Trump. Not only is he personally deteriorated, his campaign is garbage. In the past two elections, the GOP attachment brought some competent logistics. That seems lacking today. He had women advising him. Ivanka is sitting this one out. Kelly Anne Conway is a minor character in this chapter. And I think that has made a difference in how he talks about women. Just techbro incel nonsense now.
I think the Harris campaign is the best version of a Dem campaign I have seen. It’s not just Harris, although she is good. KamalaHQ, the dynamic DNC, etc.
My big concern is America. If Trump wins, it will demonstrate a real rapid decline over the last 8 years.-
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I really appreciate your updates, your knowledge about what various polls mean, and your insights about the "numbers behind the numbers." I feel good about her winning if people actually get out a vote as expected. If she loses I will blame you for consistently giving me hope lol.
Right now, I am thinking there is a 30% chance Trump wins a close one, 30% chance Harris wins a close one, and 40% chance Harris wins in a blowout.
I have decided to follow this election closely, despite knowing how crushed I will be if Trump wins. I figure I was already crushed a few months ago after watching the Biden debate. Worst case scenario is I got an extra 4 months of hope before 4 years of distraction and despair. Best case scenario is I get to watch America turn the page on this stupid, ugly chapter. This is Midway, and I can’t stop watching now.-
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3 hours ago, Js1 said:
Internal memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (GOP Senate main PAC)
Internally, they have Cruz up 1 and Allred gaining, Nebraska is a serious trouble spot, Sheehy up 4 in Montana and every other challenger down, including Moreno down 6 in Ohi
That means 50R/49D/1I - assuming Allred or Tester doesn't pull it out, correct?
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So he tells Californian Republicans that he is going to withhold money for fighting forest fires, and they cheer?
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On 10/10/2024 at 5:31 PM, Bevo in VA said:
Obama is the most gifted speaker of our generation. Not sure who is even second but the gap is between 1 and 2 isn't close
I was going to put up some other contenders. Then I watched the 45 minute speech. Yeah, he's the best speaker of our generation.
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I cannot for the life of me believe we are a cunt hair away from this dumbass motherfucker sitting in the Oval Office again.
Spit it out.-
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It happens though, Nebraska Dems didn’t nominate anyone this year and Osborn is running a close race against Fischer. Alaska Dems did not run anyone in 2020 and Al Gross only lost by 12 (with a third independent on the ballot)
Utah Dems didn’t run anyone in 2022 Senate and McMullin only lost by 10.5
There is some precedent for doing it. But it requires the state Dems to sit out with the agreement to fully support the indie candidate, but not tie them to the party
And frankly, there aren’t a lot of up and coming Dems that are itching to get hammered in a statewide race. In 2020, none of the three primary candidates had previously held elected office. This year, there are actually two Senate races and the Dems put up Preston Love against billionaire asshole Pete Ricketts. Preston is a local civil rights activist; good guy, he takes high schoolers to the Deep South on civil rights history tours. But he knows he has no shot. It’s not a race worth even mentioning. It’s hard to even find information on it. At best, it’s a race that helps with Gotv in North Omaha. At worst, it drives Republicans to the polls. So, it’s pretty easy for Dems in Nebraska to concede the race and hope an Independent fills the void. I think in Texas, the right candidate has a shot against Cruz. So recruiting a Dem isn’t as hard.-
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30 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
Picking a nit- I really don’t like the expression “opportunity economy,” which Kamala Harris uses a lot. It sounds like the focus group bullshit Republicans used to grin-fuck middle class people with until Donald Trump came along.
The inability of Democrats at all levels to connect to middle class people’s financial struggles is constantly baffling to me. Hell it almost cost Kirk Watson the Austin mayor’s race.Do you have an alternate title for the package of economic policies? (I think, by nature, a package of campaign policies is going to sound artificial. Because they are campaign promises.)
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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:
Wish the energy CEOs, who back Trump, would address the question on the exact nature they plan to cut their revenue in half under Trump. Their shareholders would love to learn more about that.
Don't care. Had environmental protections gutted.
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1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:
I can't wait until he promises everybody a pony!
Could you imagine the level of inflation in the construction industry if we tried to double our electrical capacity in 12 months? They'd be knocking down skyscrapers for the steel and copper. Pipe fitters would be making more than heart surgeons. He is just so profoundly stupid.
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And voter turnout might go up if people actually think their vote matters because they live outside of WI/MI/PA/GA/NC/NV/AZ
And if states were incentivized to have their citizens votes. -
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12 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:I want this as a yard sign.
Or
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9 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:
"He shits his pants just like us"- Surly posters
He was trying to distract from his speech. 4-D chess.
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1 hour ago, Js1 said:
Trump's pollster (Fabrizio) internals have him up 1 in MI/WI/PA/NC. That is uh, not really good, since internals are usually 3-4 points more favorable towards you than they should be.
Looking at 538, there doesn't appear to be any Dem pollsters on swing states. It's almost like Dems don't want to push optimistic polling.
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8 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:
The last fucking thing Dems need to do is let Trump dictate the conversation. Jesus Christ, Eddie.
Yeah, I don't want Harris to be parsing out how much she supports human rights for trans people or prisoners. 1) she is (hopefully) more progressive than the average voter 2) it's not really something I want to see her negotiate on, 3)the average voter will eventually change, 4) for anyone for which it is a deal breaker, they will have dozens of other excuses to not vote for her. Nobody is looking at their ballot saying "hm, economy, abortion, and prisoner sex changes - those are my issues."
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1 hour ago, miguelito said:
Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?
I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this. I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin. There has to be a paper trail on it. Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA. But Biden has access to it and can release it. If it is exists. It's possible the story is wrong. It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege.
18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.
I don't think we are reading the polling the same way.
- Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)
So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it. I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners."
Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows. We are a stupid people.
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22 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:
As far as Walz goes, he might not be helping everywhere, but he would fit in in so many rural areas so comfortably and people relate to that, vs Vance. I don't see him as a negative, or even a non-factor. He is appealing to those rural voters in so many states that might help blue tickets win more down ballot races. So, for the presidency he might be a draw, but for down ballot he's a plus. He makes it easier to not pull a lever for Trump. People could live with him in a position of power, they'd trust him.
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:Jill Stein can't talk to black people!? No wai!
Even accepting the premise for the sake of argument (I'm not sure I actually would) - that's not necessarily inappropriate. It's a different electorate in a different national environment/zeitgeist, against a different, single opponent. The 2019 primary has never been a good argument for Harris being a weak candidate.
VP's don't help campaigns. They are a pass/fail, do no harm item. Walz clears that bar.
Agreed on Harris 19 vs. now. Different kind of race. Also, her "failure" was that she ran out of money. Not an issue here. And that failure netted her a vp slot on the ticket, leading to being a vp to an elderly president, and presidential nomination four years later. I wish all my failures were so productive.
Regarding Walz, I think people underestimate his value in NE-2 (he is a native Nebraska and his trip electrified the district) and Wisconsin (shares a border with Minnesota and parts of the state get Minneapolis media). Even Michigan is probably helped with the upper Midwest vibe. Harris being from California might make those states a bigger reach.
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2 hours ago, Js1 said:
Biden +70
He’s not even trying anymore
Maybe Putin likes "The Manchurian Candidate"
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7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:
The Logan Act is less than a paper tiger. They ought to narrow it a bit or just take it off the books entirely so we can quit fantasizing about prosecutions that are never going to be brought or will be dismissed over First Amendment concerns.
Which is why I brought up FARA.
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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
I feel like engaging in "diplomacy" when you are not, in fact, an elected or appointed official of the United States and acting in that capacity, is in fact, quite illegal. I'm pretty sure it's called the fucking Logan Act.
Could also be interesting from a FARA perspective, which has been enforced several times in recent years. But I assume it would need to be shown that Trump got payment for it.
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On the "Trump sending Covid tests to Russia" thing, just to be clear, these were not the little litmus test strips. These were the testing machines. To the dictator of a country who was under heavy sanctions.
QuoteWhat Trump secretly sent to Putin
The book also contains new details about Trump’s relationship with the Russian president. In 2020, Woodward writes, Trump had “secretly sent Putin a bunch of Abbott Point of Care Covid test machines for his personal use.”
During the height of the pandemic, Russia and the United States did exchange medical equipment such as ventilators. But Putin — who infamously isolated himself over fears of Covid — told Trump on a phone call to keep the delivery of the Abbott machines quiet, Woodward reports.
“Please don’t tell anybody you sent these to me,” Putin said to Trump, according to Woodward.
“I don’t care,” Trump replied. “Fine.”
“No, no,” Putin said. “I don’t want you to tell anybody because people will get mad at you, not me. They don’t care about me.”
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2024 Senate Elections
in Cloak Room
Posted
It would be so nice to see Fischer lose.