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Tuco

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Posts posted by Tuco

  1. 2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

    Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are.  40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%).  In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area.  For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there.  This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters.   

    Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others.  The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total.  Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.   

     

    I think the fact that the gender gap is holding up with ~20% new voters is also a good sign.   For 493k new voters that's 49k more new women voting then new men. And the women are going to save all our asses. I hope. 

     

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  2. 7 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

    This is stupid for several reasons,  but the number one reason is it’s based on a premise that if Cheney is working on republicans, somehow it means Harris can’t be doing other things at the same time, like you can only do one. 
     

    ARE MY EFFORTS TO READ ON MY PHONE WHIKE I TAKE A SHIT A BOLD GAMBIT, OR HAIL MARY!?!?

    Yeah, and it's pretty standard approach to try to get some cross-aisle endorsements.  It's not some clever gambit or desperate hail mary that Trump is touting support from Tulsi Gabbard.  The only difference is that Harris is being more successful at it.  

     

    5 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

    No Way Wtf GIF by Harlem

     

    He is weaving in one of the stories he's been telling for a while long time.  Oprah had him on her last show ever (a Friday) and the ratings were the best ever.  Or maybe it wasn't the last day, but one of the late days (Thr) in that last week.   In reality, it was midseason and the ratings were typical of an Oprah show.  

    The funniest thing about the story is that he thinks that great ratings on Oprah last's show would have been because of him, and not Oprah.  What a fucking nutcase. 

     

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  3. 4 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

    She’s on her way to being an Ernie Chambers/Terry Carpenter type hellraiser in the Unicameral and that’s great. If Vargas doesn’t get Don Bacon in NE-2 this time, I can see her taking it next time 

    She's awesome, but way too liberal and bombastic for NE-2.  If she stays in local elected office, maybe city council.  But my guess is she starts some sort of advocacy/activist/lobbying group in Nebraska or joins one outside of Nebraska.  She will be term-limited soon, because of the rules they changed for Ernie and there just aren't many opportunities for promotions within Nebraska politics for fire-spitting progressives. 

  4. 24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    can we get serious for a minute?

    y'all can bag on chili's all you want, but there is not a chain within 7 miles of me in any direction, and the closest chili's is 9+ miles away. i know in texas, 9 miles takes 9 minutes, but here that's like an hour. some nights, i would kill half of you for a nice chicken ranch sandwich. they basically invented the buffalo chicken sandwich as far as i'm concerned, and have gotten no real props for that.

    sorry to get all real with you, but there are more serious issues in the world than the presidential election.

    as you were.

    Chili's was always my go-to if I was on a business trip that lasted more than 3 nights.  First three nights I would seek out interesting, local restaurants.  By the fourth night, I was tired and just wanted to go to some place that was easy.  

  5. 6 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

    Old, white, male Joe Biden and the pandemic were the perfect recipe in 2020, but the shit bags have short memories and a distaste for female leadership. The next 4 years are going to suck.

    I'm not convinced the pandemic helped Joe (other than depressing the economy).  While I think people didn't like Trump's handling of it, by November they were ready to lose the masks and start going to bars. 

  6. 15 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

    Dumb question:

    We get exit polls on Election Day. Are the returns you guys are posting the same thing? If not, why aren’t there exit polls now?

    I think most of the conversation has been on the actual polls - you know, the important one that determines who is elected.  

    Exit polling used to be used as a way to estimate who was going to win before the polls closed and votes were counted.  But, it was determined that could actually depress voting for the team that was perceived as losing by a significant margin.  So, folks don't do that anymore.  Now they are used to estimate stuff that doesn't show up in government polls - like demographic splits, when someone made up their mind, what issues were important to them, etc..  It's probably better in some ways than the pre-election polling because you know these people voted and it likely has a better answer rate.  Although, since it's not done at every polling station, so there may be some bias there. 

  7. 6 minutes ago, NAVY said:

    Under NDA, but did some work for one of the big fast food chains. They had survey after survey that suggested their customers base wanted better quality and was willing to spend a bit more. So they reengineered processes and spent more on ingredients. 
     

    No one noticed the increase in quality. Everyone noticed the increase in price. 

    I assume they wanted to get away from the "pink slime."  

  8. 1 minute ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    I am taking the Ricky Bobby approach

    02bd17dd-e868-4d35-82d8-9b5ecaa12705_tex

    with all due respect, you are completely misunderstanding the point.  you are clearly associating mfg of parts with mfg of COMPLETED war machines, like armored vehicles, planes, etc.  

    I never said the Germans were building entire war machines up through March 45 I said they were able to overcome their primary mfg sites destructions by spreading out the fucking  parts to smaller shops spread all over. the basement part was a euphemism.

     

     

     

     

    No, I caught your point - the Germans were making more ball bearings than ever, and just stacking them up in boxes.  Because apparently it was a big priority to have boxes of ball bearings. Maybe they were going roll them out in front of the Russians to make them fall.  

    As an experienced mechanical engineer, I just think it's nonsense.  Like I said, there is probably some metric to imply they were doing great.  They weren't. Factories have choke points, and you can't just divide a factory up into 100 smaller shops and it will work as well.  You are believing something that doesn't make sense. 

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  9. On 10/22/2024 at 7:59 AM, Scheiss Meister said:

    It's easier to lose a war by underestimating your enemy than by overestimating them.  I remember talking to Gulf War veterans who told me that it was tough and real, but it was easier than training exercises that they had done.  It's always better to be prepared for the worst case.

    My cousin served in the first Gulf War as a tank commander.  The quote I remember him saying shortly after: "the two biggest surprises were how well our stuff worked and poorly the Russian shit did.

    19 hours ago, AUS-97HORN said:

    the US and the British thought similarly when they thought that by taking out all the German  industrial base needed product manufacturers' buildings via "precision" bombing in WW2.

    turned out that what the Germans did after a factory got taken out, was to take the salvagable equipment, put it in a basement,  and instead of 200 machines all being in 1 building it was now 150 machines in 150 basements scattered around a city, and the net result was ze Germans were even more efficient at making ball bearings, gears, hydraulic punch press parts, etc.

    post-war analysis showed the Germans were at peak production in the war as late as March.... reminding everyone that they fucking gave up officially on May 7.

     

    point of my post is... never underestimate the Russians absolute need for the wodka.  and instead of large distilleries,  10,000 babushka led stills are just going to be put into production instead.

     

    With all due respect, that sounds like complete bullshit.  Do you have a source on that?  It's not like there is one "machine" making ball bearings from ore to final product.  The heat treat on those little fuckers would be going through a furnace, and I doubt there were 150 smoke stacks coming up from 150 basements.  And if German production was at its max two months before their surrender, where was it all going?  It certainly wasn't into planes or ships.  And why does literally no one follow this blueprint for making product now if it is more efficient?  It sounds like one of the History Channel shows that takes some isolated metric that implies Germany was doing great, but it obviously was not. 

     

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  10. This fucking McConnell article.  I mean, what a complete piece of shit.  

    Let's start with the punchline: 

    Quote

    In a statement to CNN about his comments on the former president in the book, McConnell said, “Whatever I may have said about President Trump pales in comparison to what JD Vance, Lindsey Graham, and others have said about him, but we are all on the same team now.”

    This is what he said into his "oral historian" that he turned over to someone writing a biography on McConnell. These are the statements made by a coward, wanting to be remembered as something else: 

    Quote

    the “MAGA movement is completely wrong” and that Ronald Reagan “wouldn’t recognize” the party today.

     

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    “I think Trump was the biggest factor in changing the Republican Party from what Ronald Reagan viewed and he wouldn’t recognize today,”

    Quote

    “Unfortunately, about half the Republicans in the country believe whatever he says,” ..., “I think I’m pretty safe in saying it’s not just the Democrats who are counting the days until he leaves on January 20, but the Republicans as well.”

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    “I’m not at all conflicted about whether what the president did is an impeachable offense. I think it is. Urging an insurrection and people attacking the Capitol as a direct result … is about as close to an impeachable offense as you can imagine, with the possible exception of maybe being an agent for another country,” 

    Quote

    calling Trump a “sleazeball,” a “narcissist” and saying that the former president is “stupid as well as being ill-tempered.” He added that Trump is “not very smart, irascible, nasty, just about every quality you would not want somebody to have.”

    Quote

    In 2022, Trump referred to Chao as McConnell’s “China loving wife, Coco Chow” in a post on Truth Social. Tackett reports that Chao was “deeply disturbed” by the comments, and McConnell said that his wife is “not used to taking a punch.”

     

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  11. 2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

     

     

     

    I wasn't sure the context on that.

    Quote

    “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure," Kelly said.

    Kelly, who first joined the Trump administration as homeland security secretary and later was White House chief of staff from July 2017 until early 2019, also said Trump had spoken positively about Adolf Hitler.

    “He commented more than once that, you know, that Hitler did some good things, too,” Kelly said.

    NBCNews

     

     

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  12. 27 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

    But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

     

    The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

    The problem with modern polling is that it filters for people who want to answer political questions.  Everyone else might as well be dark matter: we know it's there, we know it outweighs the known universe, but we have no idea what it actually is.  

     

    Edit to remove response on Iran.

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  13. 2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

    Why are people still worried about polls when early voting data is available/will become more in focus this week?

    Because we are the point of the campaign where we are going to start throwing turtle shells into the fire to read the cracks.  It's human tradition to seek out any form of divination to see if we'll win the battle and whether our crops will get rain.  5000 years of desperation can't be wrong. 

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  14. 7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

    You're going to have to spell this one out for me. I don't follow.

    I am saying that the "walking a tightrope" analogy assumes some sort of balance between two bad consequences - falling off right or falling off left.  In the case of political campaign, it generally means striking a balance that loses the least votes.  And that affects policy between the elections.  If the Arab American or Muslim American votes can just be assumed, there is no longer balance.  It's not a tight rope anymore.  Do you disagree with any of that? 

  15. 6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

    Your contention is that Kamala should have been trying harder to convince Biden to halt all weapons to Israel? And you want her to win the election? Because those two thoughts are completely incongruous. 

    We'll see what her actions are as POTUS, but, right now, she has absolutely no choice but to walk the tight rope.

    Do you agree that tightrope changes when one side says "you have my vote no matter how much you ignore my concerns"?  

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