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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    i've got a hunch i could find it without much effort.

    If RedState.com isn't defending him (even though they think he won the debate) then I'm not sure where else you are going to look. I'm sure they are out there but it's not in places I wanna look - and I'm still pretty conservative. Everyone is saying Trump went too far - even conservative rags (for the most part).

  2. 11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I’m not buying that. It doesn’t match any of the stage polls. If that’s true Trump gonna win in a walk (not really a walk- but he’s gonna win). If the national vote is 2 the. In Texas it’s 8, Iowa it’s 6, Ohio it’s 7, PA/wise/mi it’s tied. And we aren’t seeing any of that. Can’t imagine this is accurate. That would essentially invalidate every single other statewide poll. 

    Here's the article I referenced earlier: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/

     

  3. 13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    I’m not buying that. It doesn’t match any of the stage polls. If that’s true Trump gonna win in a walk (not really a walk- but he’s gonna win). If the national vote is 2 the. In Texas it’s 8, Iowa it’s 6, Ohio it’s 7, PA/wise/mi it’s tied. And we aren’t seeing any of that. Can’t imagine this is accurate. That would essentially invalidate every single other statewide poll. 

    Nate Silver said more or less the same thing last week. State polls are generally more accurate (and are what he relies on for his forecast) since they actually look at voter rolls/registrations when doing those. National polls are more of a random sample. 

  4. 16 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:

    Someone smarter than me: why is NE-2 such a big deal? Isn’t it just one electoral vote?

    Several reasons, but mostly because of what it represents. It's a highly educated, WHITE, and upper middle class district that is a Republican-leaning district historically. The Omaha metro area basically. Biden leading big is an indicator of what is happening nationwide - that white collar white voters are swinging to Biden (especially women). 

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