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Posts posted by The Dog
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9 minutes ago, yoladu said:
538 has upped there Presidential Race odds...
Biden 80%
Trump 20%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
September was a good month for Biden
I'm curious what this will look like in a week. That's when the post-debate polls will start rolling in and Silver can include them.
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Trump has at least hit 50% in several Texas polls so even though they are close he needs to really underperform the polls here to lose.
Georgia is the one he needs to worry about as Biden is hitting 50% in several polls there.
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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:
So Biden is closer to winning Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska than Trump is to winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Lulz.
No - they are all about equal (Trump's chances in the first three are the same as Biden's in the last three). That SC poll is a clear outlier.
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16 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:
Drove from Denver back to Austin this weekend and saw lots of trump signs. Very few Biden ones. But those were mostly shithole small towns i was driving through. Not sure what to think
Dude you drove through the panhandle and rural Texas what did you expect?
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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
Who? Ras?
Yeah. Rasmussen Reports (where Scott no longer works).
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Oh lookie! Trumps favorite pollster now has him losing to Biden by 8 nationally and now -7 on approval. This isn't a result of the debate last night but a result of his SC nomination. Ouch.
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10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:
i've got a hunch i could find it without much effort.
If RedState.com isn't defending him (even though they think he won the debate) then I'm not sure where else you are going to look. I'm sure they are out there but it's not in places I wanna look - and I'm still pretty conservative. Everyone is saying Trump went too far - even conservative rags (for the most part).
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2 minutes ago, crash_davis said:
GOP dipshit, probably: you mean patriot, right?
i want to see the dipshit trump supporters show up to defend any of last night.
You're going to have to look hard. Even those who think Trump "won" that I've read think he went too far and didn't help himself.
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cross posting from the election thread because, relevant:
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NSIAP:
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6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:
Could Biden have 10 or 15 million more votes and still end up tied?
No.
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11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:
I’m not buying that. It doesn’t match any of the stage polls. If that’s true Trump gonna win in a walk (not really a walk- but he’s gonna win). If the national vote is 2 the. In Texas it’s 8, Iowa it’s 6, Ohio it’s 7, PA/wise/mi it’s tied. And we aren’t seeing any of that. Can’t imagine this is accurate. That would essentially invalidate every single other statewide poll.
Here's the article I referenced earlier: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-state-polls-can-tell-us-about-the-national-race/
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13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:
I’m not buying that. It doesn’t match any of the stage polls. If that’s true Trump gonna win in a walk (not really a walk- but he’s gonna win). If the national vote is 2 the. In Texas it’s 8, Iowa it’s 6, Ohio it’s 7, PA/wise/mi it’s tied. And we aren’t seeing any of that. Can’t imagine this is accurate. That would essentially invalidate every single other statewide poll.
Nate Silver said more or less the same thing last week. State polls are generally more accurate (and are what he relies on for his forecast) since they actually look at voter rolls/registrations when doing those. National polls are more of a random sample.
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16 minutes ago, Queen Bitch said:
Someone smarter than me: why is NE-2 such a big deal? Isn’t it just one electoral vote?
Several reasons, but mostly because of what it represents. It's a highly educated, WHITE, and upper middle class district that is a Republican-leaning district historically. The Omaha metro area basically. Biden leading big is an indicator of what is happening nationwide - that white collar white voters are swinging to Biden (especially women).
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I bet hardly any of us voted for Biden in the primary.
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Want to see the crosstabs on this one (warning - partisan poll):
However, it goes along with most Texas polls showing Trump with at most a very slim lead. Most are a statistical dead heat.
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1, 1, 1, 1, 1
This is the correct answer. -
29 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:
Dude looks like he’s been handing an 8 ball back and forth with a stranger named Chet for 4 straight hours.
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7 minutes ago, PW119 said:
Do the results of the Senate's investigation into Hunter Biden hurt? Haven't heard much fallout, but man that's some Bullshit they had going.
Hunter Biden isn't on the ballot. Same with Eric Trump.
Anyone it affects wasn't going to vote for Biden anyway and anyone who cares about Eric Trump wasn't voting for Trump either.
Where does Trump end up?
in Cloak Room
Posted
Retired in Florida.