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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    That’s not necessarily the case. I’m pretty sure you are wrong about this. When he gets donkey stomped he will lose the platform. Literally and figuratively. It will become (I hope) Paul Ryan’s party (maybe not actually him but someone like him). 

    He's correct that the RNC has no official platform for this year - it's simply "Trumps second term agenda". Whatever that is. 

    If Trump loses (and that is looking to be more and more likely the case) then this may not be a bad thing long-term for Republicans. It gives them a chance to re-assess and reset. 

    • Like 1
  2. 24 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    it might be happening right now.  there was a report about 6 weeks ago saying that if trump's numbers didn't look good by labor day, mitch was going to cut the senators loose to say whatever they feel they need to say to get elected.  don't know if they interpret trump's numbers as justifying that now or not. 

    He did that very thing already about a month ago. Told vulnerable senators if they needed to distance themselves to survive then do so.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. 47 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

    So if WS MVP George Springer signs with the Yankees next season after not receiving a competitive offer from the Astros, you would root for him to suck?  That's pretty stupid.  I would hope most fans would wish him success in any games not played against the Astros.

    Your point is invalid since Springer is clearly going to the Red Sox if he doesn't re-sign with Houston.

  4. 9 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

    Nominee for polling malpractice of the year. Apparent poll released today from some Brazilian outfit no one has ever heard of. I say "apparent poll" b/c I haven't seen an actual release outside of this tweet, which doesn't include a link to anything.

    Aside from the ridiculous racial results, for the poll to be Biden +3 overall it would have to have something approaching an 85%+ white sample (by comparison, 2016 electorate was 71% white).

    If you even somehow are willing to grant that Trump is doing 2x better with Latinos and 4x better with blacks than 2016,  if you re-run the numbers based on actual racial breakdown in 2016, it's Biden +6.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200831_National.pdf

    Not a hoax. Just a weird poll.

  5. I wonder how much NY and California skew polling nationally. I'd almost be tempted to release two polls - one with both included and another that doesn't. That might show a better picture of where things are. There's probably some methodology to account for this, but I think it would be informative. 

    Just to give you an idea of how badly they can skew things - Hillary won the popular vote by 2.9 million votes. She won NY state by over 4 million votes and California by 1.7 million votes. 

    Trump won the popular vote in the remaining 48 states by over 3 million votes in 2016. 

    Something to keep in mind.

    • Hook 'Em 1
  6. He's probably getting state polls confused with national polls. Trafalgar released a Missouri poll today where he's up 11 with over 50%. 

    Regarding current polls - a lot of these polls in "battleground states" are showing leads within the margin of error, which is a statistical dead heat. Now the aggregate may show a Biden or Trump lead, but that's something to keep an eye on. 

    We should get more polls out this week and hopefully of higher quality. I'm sick of these +/-5.5% garbage polls.

  7. 39 minutes ago, mdmost said:

    In the time since he was diagnosed with Stage III colon cancer in 2016, he played T'Challa 4 times, played another Civil Rights icon in Thurgood Marshall, and completed 3 other movies. That was a man who did not want to squander his time left on Earth. What a talent. 

    Played Jackie Robinson before that too. 

    He made the most of it. RIP

  8. Nice analysis from 538: Is the Electoral Map Changing?

    tl;dr versioin:

    States that moved red in 2016: Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Michigan

    States that moved slightly red in 2016: Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin

    State that moved blue in 2016: Arizona, Georgia, Texas

    Slight blue in 2016: Colorado, Virginia

    Swing states: North Carolina

    Don't know what the fuck they are doing: Florida (ok they are swing but you know what I mean)

  9. 40 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

    Supposedly, I’ve heard that pollsters made a change from 2016 where uneducated whites were under polled. Each poll now has uneducated whites properly weighted and that’s why you’re seeing some of the margins in the battleground states more narrow.

     

    That's correct - and keep in mind that the were a lot more undecideds at this point last time and two third party candidates who polled way better than they actually performed in November. 

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