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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. Well all but the "Primary Model" guy who is digging in and says that Trump now has a 91 percent chance at being re-elected

    He also claims that Trump will win more electoral votes than he did last time. 

    https://www.newsweek.com/professor-who-accurately-predicted-25-out-27-elections-predicts-trump-2020-win-1516609

    One note is that the first link references the May Gallup approval poll where Trump was at 49% but he's now at 38% in the most recent Gallup approval poll. I don't know what numbers the dude is looking at that indicate an increase in approval.

  2. 13 minutes ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

    The Twitters is blowing up re: ND. If every conference follows suit, ND doesn't have a season. If ND doesn't have a season, the transfer portal is about to be LIT

    Good. Fuck Notre Dame.

    • Like 1
  3. 4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Welp, give em points for being consistent in their shittiness.

    If you drill down on their numbers, they're just as screwy as always. Not credible margins for Biden among key voting blocks (Blacks, College Grads). Biden only getting 39% to Trump's 37% in the Northeast!!! 10% of Dems voting for Trump, while 9% are voting third-party or haven't decided!

     

    One thing worth noting is that while their Biden number appears to be far lower than everyone else's their Trump number(s) are in line with what other pollsters are reporting. It's not like Trump is doing better in an absolute sense in this poll - just better relative to Biden who for some reason is getting much less support in this poll than in almost every other poll. 

  4. 37 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    i've never heard of this so called "princeton" before so i can't speak to their methods, but they predict absolute bloodshed.

     

    https://election.princeton.edu/

    2020-princeton-election-consortium.png

     

    thumb_dem_senate_seats.png

     

    image.thumb.png.1b74da40c8c09836e42ae95d8c12a149.png

     

    The map where Trump out performs polling by 3% is also pretty bad for him - and I think this is currently the most likely map.

    • Like 1
  5. 22 minutes ago, victory88 said:

    He's not coming here.  It's a perfect fit and why he wanted to commit last summer before his mom stopped him.  Pretty sure he's compromised with his mom.  She's fine with him going anywhere but Texas and pretty sure he'll take that compromise if it means not being forced to go to aggy.

    I haven't followed this thread that closely, but what's his mom's deal with Texas?

  6. 22 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

     

    Yeah I'm not buying that first one about him losing support amongst rural voters and working class whites until I see more evidence. It's possible these could be the ones who are telling pollsters what they want to hear and will vote for Trump anyway. 

    I do believe the Cook report though - at least as things stand today. Trump has yet to pivot and until he does the map will be very ugly for him.

  7. 4 minutes ago, Horndog said:

    I saw a Trump ad last night here in Dallas.  Something about how terrifying Biden's America would be. Ar first, it made me angry. Then I realized they were spending money in Texas, and it made me smile. 

    Saw one online earlier that tried to tie the Defund the Police movement to Biden. Biden wisely has rejected the idea, but Trump is going to try to tie him to the far left. 

    The ad will hit home with conservatives but not sure it will with moderate/swing voters. Basically someone calling 911 and told to wait 5 days. Kind of a stupid ad actually.

  8. 9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Once again guys, Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports years ago and formed his own polling group called RMG. They're two totally diferrent polls. RMG polls don't have anywhere near the GOP bias.

     

    https://scottrasmussen.com/president-trumps-job-approval-39/

    That is the RMG approval poll. 538 doesn't have a bias score on them yet.

  9. 18 minutes ago, 'stache said:

    I'm still confused. The question was asked earlier. The "guaranteed" money, in my opinion, is how much does he get if he forgets how to throw a football next year. This site says $53 million, the tweet above says $53 million, or $103 M (by next March). So if he sucks immediately next year he gets $53 million if they want to cut him, and if he has a good year next year and sucks the next, it's $103 million to get rid of him? I understand that you aren't going to cut him after one or even two bad years, but I'm still trying to understand what "guaranteed" money means in this context. I also don't think he's going to not be good, but that has to be the assumption when thinking about "guaranteed" money.

    Yeah it's complicated. There's an explanation in the "Contract Notes" section.

    The $53 million is fully guaranteed at contract signing, which includes the 2020-2022 seasons.

    On the third "league day" of each season starting in 2021 the season 2 years afterwards becomes fully guaranteed (to try to simplify things). So in other words, if he's on the team in 2021 (highly likely) his guarantees increase for the amount of the 2023 season (including salary and roster bonus). This continues for several years before it only guarantees the roster bonuses or salary, but by then they will likely re-negotiate.

  10. 1 hour ago, bluto said:

    As a property tax ‘expert’ I’ve tried explaining that the trump tax plan is actually a total nut kick for upper middle class Texans and above.

    If you are paying more than the max deduction for property taxes in Texas then it's highly unlikely that you are middle class.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/who-is-really-middle-class-in-america-this-chart-shows-just-how-much-family-size-matters-2018-12-28#:~:text=As a general rule%2C according,U.S. household size%2C 2.5 people.

  11. So if you don't read OvertheCap.com then you should, because it's excellent.

    Here's the breakdown of Mahomes new contract from the site: https://overthecap.com/player/patrick-mahomes/5594/

     

    And here's Jason Fitzgerald's thoughts on the contract: https://overthecap.com/thoughts-on-mahomes-450-million-contract/

    I think Mahomes probably has an "out" in the middle of it because as Fitzgerald points out he's going to be a MASSIVE cap hit to the Chefs in the middle of it. Good chance this thing is renegotiated or Mahomes becomes a free agent before the contract is complete. 

     

  12. 17 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

    And there it is. The contract is actually for 140 million. 

    If it's not guaranteed then it's not really a part of a "record contract" in my opinion. Mahomes can feel free to hold out if the market for QBs goes way up before a non-guaranteed season and I'd support that 100%. And the Chiefs can cut him instantly if he blows out his plant knee and throwing arm.

    It's certainly a record for the NFL. Here's other QB contracts for comparison (keeping in mind we still don't know all of the details):

    https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

    His guarantee is considerably higher than the next highest. 

  13. 1 hour ago, Red Five said:

    From Voldemort's link. "There is no real path forward to reelection for Trump without winning Florida."

    I hadn't really thought of the map that way, so I played around with the numbers some, giving Florida to Biden. If you then give Trump Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.... Biden still wins. 

    RoxAk.png

    Here's 270towin's scenarios for a Trump win. If he loses Florida, then he loses the election (as of right now): https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=22201311106162122221135522202251351621012226431102216202&party=R

    Keep in mind that doesn't mean whomever wins Florida wins the election - Biden can lose Florida and still has several combinations that lead to a win. 

  14. 6 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

    See I don't get this.  I'm in my prime earning years right now, and under the current tax plan, I've gone from being pretty close to not having to write a check on tax day to $6k last year and $9k this year.  I'm trying to figure out how this isn't murdering his support.

    Are you actually paying more taxes or are your numbers for the amount withheld from your paycheck wrong? I know a lot of people got a surprise when they filed taxes thinking they were paying more when in fact they just didn't adjust their withholding to account for the new law. Lots of people needed to submit a new W4. I know my taxes went down and I actually got money back where I haven't in the past, but I also switched jobs and had to do a new W4 and the allowances were different this time.

  15. 1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

    after reading this a few times, i’m starting to wonder exactly what this looks like. will they try to replace him? it’ll be too late. will they not “support” him?  it’ll be too late. you can’t be a trump lackey for years then turn around and be like jk lol. 

    maybe senators can start publicly taking sensible positions and hope people in their state have really short memories, but this seems unlikely. 

    people are ready to pull the lever for d all the way down. a few speeches in oct isn’t gonna make them split their vote. he’s gonna drag everybody down with him.  

    It's more that they have to distance themselves from Trump in order to save their own re-election prospects. They aren't going to overtly support Biden - just not seek Trumps endorsement or try to distance themselves from him in any way possible. 

    Of course this will be difficult for those who have supported Trump lock step through his presidency. Will be interesting to watch. 

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