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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

    Trump’s approval rating will be in the 30s by next month. At that point you will see Republican leaders trying to distance themselves from him just to save their own asses. 

    What I've read is that if he's still fucking the goat when we get to labor day then the senate/house Republican candidates will start to bail. 

  2. I don't have the link, but the pollsters claim to have also adjusted their models from 2016.

    In 2016 they made the mistake of over-estimating the number of people with college degrees in the voting population (a stupid mistake considering only about a quarter of the public has at least a college degree). They claim to have adjusted accordingly.

    So not only is Biden polling better, he's doing so in polls where the samples are a lot different than four years ago that should result in a disadvantage. 

  3. 16 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
    27 minutes ago, The Dog said:
    agreed, but I think Trump's attempts to label Biden as "too liberal" may work well enough in Texas to hold it. It doesn't mean he's going to win re-election, just Texas. 
    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see more evidence of a swing to Biden, but right now a single poll with Biden leading within the margin of error isn't enough. So I think it's safe to assume Trump is winning Texas until more evidence is presented to the contrary.

    Well no one asserted Biden is going to win Texas, what was shown in the post you quoted, and I tried to explain further, is that it's a tossup. It can't be assumed a Trump lock much more than it is a Biden lock. That is really the only data-based conclusion you can make right now.

    I'm just saying if I were doing any modeling on 270towin that I'd go ahead and put Texas in Trump's column. I get your point but this state still sent Dan fucking Patrick to the legislature on a statewide vote. 

    • Like 1
  4. 1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

    In a specific discussion of the EC map, the Tump thing is pretty relavent.

     

    agreed, but I think Trump's attempts to label Biden as "too liberal" may work well enough in Texas to hold it. It doesn't mean he's going to win re-election, just Texas. 

    I reserve the right to change my mind if I see more evidence of a swing to Biden, but right now a single poll with Biden leading within the margin of error isn't enough. So I think it's safe to assume Trump is winning Texas until more evidence is presented to the contrary.

  5. 8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

    Texas is conservative in rural areas. It's blue and getting bluer in big cities/counties. The shift is happening as we speak. 

    Hillary lost by 9 points to Trump in 2016. Biden should close that gap to 4-5 points at worst, and he's got a fighter's chance at winning the state if these disastrous days don't get better by November. 

     

    yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

    • Like 1
  6. 16 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

    Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

     

    0mE9R.png 

     

    I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

  7. 7 minutes ago, htown85 said:

    I read somewhere that the state number is a day old, which could be why Tuesdays are so high since some counties don't report on Sunday.

    Yup just reporting lag. Dallas is big enough to have its own public health reporting infrastructure (like Houston, Los Angeles, etc.) so they can report the day they send the data to DSHS. DSHS won't have the number in theirs until the following day. 

    Ideally you would get the number from the CDC as it's likely Dallas sends their info directly to the CDC as well as to DSHS. CDC would then have the true aggregate as they are supposed to remove Dallas from the number they receive from DSHS, but it gets messy and double counting is inevitable. It's possible for COVID that CDC is only receiving data from state agencies but for other reportable diseases it can come from municipal public health departments as well. 

  8. 16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Man, just got done leafing through a Trafalgar poll. Pretty shoddy, IMO. Their samples for MI and WI are extremely old and white. They also give out very little in the way of results/crosstabs. Just percentages of age and race and a final result. No detailed vote breakdown by demographics, no education/income info.

    It could be shoddy, but they also believe the "shy Trump voter" phenomenon is stronger now than it was 4 years ago and could be accounting for that. 

  9. 3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    rasmussen seems to get closer to 100% than other polls.  don't know why that is.  wonder if there is some wording that dissuades people from saying don't know/no opinion

    Remember this is an approval poll, not an election poll. RMG Research is Scott Rasumussen's new outfit and they do the election polls now and has similar splits to everyone other than Trafalgar.

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