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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 53 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Rasmussen apparently thinks the race has completely shifted in the span of 7 days.

    7/8: Trump 44% approval, Biden +10 (50/40).

    7/15: Trump 48% approval, Biden +3 (47/44).

    LOL!

    Good luck finding the crosstabs on the most recent one. 

    the page with the info is missing some detail: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/july_2020/questions_white_house_watch_july_8_9_and_12_14_2020

  2. 8 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

    Hegar v Cornyn. Don't know if she has a shot, but I'll contribute to her campaign 

    Really wish she'd run against Carter again - if she won she'd have a record and we'd know where she actually stands. It's going to be too easy to scare people that she's too liberal for Texas. West was right that she's short on details - she's going to need one heck of a campaign pitch to have any success OR hope that Trump becomes so unpopular here that he brings Cornyn down with him.

    Just MHO.

  3. 9 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

    yeah, that could be it.  if you believe gravis, they say they are just doing a lot of polls and OAN is sorting through the results to get the ones they want.  if you don't believe them, they could be putting their finger on a scale.  fwiw, 538 gives them a C, with a .9 D lean

    OAN had Gravis poll Georgia and it came out Trump +3: https://www.scribd.com/document/468898889/Oann-Gravis-Georgia. That's within the margin of error (+/- 4.3). Don't know if OAN reported it or not - I don't follow that network.

    Gravis' most recent Florida poll was Biden +10 also with a MOE of 4.3.

  4. 12 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

    NSIAP but...

    HEY! HUMAN CAPITAL STOCK!! GET OFF THE DOLE AND GO TO WORK YOU LOAFERS!! MY GREAT ECONOMY WON'T FIX ITSELF.

    BE HAPPY THERE IS LAW AND ORDER OR ELSE! RATINGS!!

     

    That's as stupid and tone deaf as Hillary talking about putting coal miners out of work. 

  5. 19 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

    If you eliminate the deductions, then get rid of the fucking progressive taxes.  Also, get the rates lower.  I would be ok with a flat tax of 10 or 15% provided the first 40-50k for each individual was tax free (that is honestly what it costs to live) on a pure income tax.  You get no other deductions.  You eliminate all sorts of costs with enforcement.  

    You're starting to sound like a Republican. ;)

  6. 37 minutes ago, Tuco said:


    No shit. At this point, they might as well just start tweeting Biden campaign materials. Because that stuff connects less effectively than old family photos.

    I was going to make a post that at some point Biden needs to make the case to vote for him, but the way things are going will he even need to do so? 

    These dipshits keep digging a deeper and deeper hole. 

  7. 1 hour ago, Iconoclast Texan said:

    The worst are the shrill Karens on social media preaching about staying at home with their Zoom happy hours and then post pictures of their families at the beach in Galveston or Port A.

     

    7 minutes ago, stone oak said:

    Guarantee we have several Brads and Karens on this very website doing the exact same thing. Rules don't apply to them, but virtue signaling is their specialty.

    Posrep to both of these. Some of the most vocal of my friends on social media about staying at home have been out and about a LOT more than others.

    Speak with your actions - not your words!

    • Like 1
  8. So let's discuss the polls for a minute - I'm seeing more and more articles coming out wondering if pollsters "learned their lessons" from 2016. The thing is, the pollsters pretty much got it right with respect to Hillary's share of the vote. For example:

    Wisconsin:

    RCP Average for Clinton: 46.8

    Actual vote for Clinton: 46.5

    Michigan:

    RCP Average for Clinton: 45.4 (most polls were 46-47 in November - one outlier pulled this down)

    Actual vote for Clinton: 47

    Pennsylvania

    RCP Average for Clinton: 46.2

    Actual vote for Clinton: 47.5

    So the RCP averages were off of the actual vote for Hillary on these three states (that Trump won by 0.7, 0.3, and 0.7 respectively) by about one percent each on average. That's pretty dang accurate IMHO.

    Where did they screw up? In measuring support for Trump. Several reasons for this - including undercounting whites without college degrees, the "shy Trump voter" effect (likely undecideds who were going to vote Trump but wouldn't admit it), and late deciders who overwhelmingly broke for Trump. That's a bit reason that Trafalgar's polls were so accurate - they polled literally the day before when people were making up their minds. 

    So what to take from this? IMHO we can believe that support for Biden in these polls is pretty accurate and will continue to be so. What we need to understand is what is different in 2020 that would result in bogus numbers for Trump? We already know that pollsters are increasing the percentage of non-college educated whites in their samples. 

    Anyway something to consider whenever someone suggests the polls are "bogus" or that they got something wrong 4 years ago.

    • Like 1
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