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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 2 hours ago, Nivek said:

    So there is a restriction on the use of the weapon systems sent by the US.  Does this allow for Ukraine to invade the reclaim Crimea? and to reposition as necessary to support this action or is it restricted to the present day contested border?

     

    Crimea is Ukraine. The US has stated as such.

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  2. 29 minutes ago, Nivek said:

    When Ukraine receives the additional support could they possibly strike the oil fields in the Russian Caucasus region or any transport ships?

    They aren't attacking any Russian territory unless Russia is launching attacks from that location.

    Ukraine has already been attacking the Russian navy. 

    One misconception I'm seeding is that the US said for Ukraine not to "attack Russia directly". That's not entirely accurate - they can use GMLRS attacks on Russian positions in Russia if Russia is attacking Ukraine from there. 

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  3. tl;dr - Ukrainian attacks in the Kherson region have put the Russians in a very bad spot. They have had to move supplies out of GMLRS range and then the Ukrainians did enough damage to only bridges for resupply that Russia cannot bring in more ordinance in any quantity.

    Russian troops in Kherson are now trapped. 

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  4. 23 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

    Let’s remember that for years we had debates over whether Javelins would be too escalatory. Which was patently absurd, as is the debate over the equipment provided now. Anything we could ever provide Ukraine would only ever be used inside Ukraine, as Ukraine defended itself. Short of a B-2 or SSBN.

    The fact is we we defanged ourselves by allowing Russia to set the tone of the debate and the bounds of rationality. Had we stepped in and defined them ourselves, we could have been a bit ahead of this. It is MMQB, but it’s also important to recognize. 

    When the price for being wrong is a nuclear exchange I'm fine with being cautious and the "slow boil" as Dahobbs calls it. 

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