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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. I don't know much about Harris but I know enough to say that she's nothing like Hillary. Hillary was a total fraud.

    And claims that a politician is "too ambitious" are regularly leveled against women more than men - it just seems overly sexist to me. 

  2. 14 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

    Pretty amazing you think he’s running a shitty campaign based on the results. It’d be harder to be performing any better at this stage. 

    to be fair, he's not running a terrific campaign by any stretch. he's just sitting back watching Trump implode and not getting in the way. Not a bad strategy, but not exactly noteworthy either. 

    • Like 1
  3. 48 minutes ago, Scraps said:

    I want it to be Bellinger, but I don't want to wait until the 2nd inning. 

    We hit them first, everyone is warned so if they want to play bitch ball some more then they get tossed when they hit/throw at us

    This is chess not checkers. 

    The only problem is Roberts might get run as well, and we need that idiot making as many decisions as possible. It's the only equalizer in this series considering all of our injuries.

  4. 6 hours ago, bluto said:


    Evangelicals don’t give 2 shits about Pence in regard to their support of trump. All trump has to do is make some shit up and throw dirt on pence.

    I agree it won't hurt much, but can he really afford to lose any support amongst his base? It will cause some to stay home (they won't vote for Biden) and that's support he cannot afford to lose right now. 

  5. 1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

    Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

    I'm with you - joining what appears to be a sinking ship makes no sense for Haley. 

    As I've said before, dumping Pence is a big risk for Trump. The evangelicals were on board because of him. Sure there are some that will support him still, but Pence is popular with them and has been nothing but loyal to Trump.

    It makes little sense but then again nothing he's done the last 6 months has made much sense either, so dumping Pence would be on brand I guess....

  6. 51 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

     

    That Dukakis "lead" was a single poll taken during and immediately after the Democratic convention. 

    What that table doesn't show is that Bush took over the lead in August immediately after the Republican convention. Dukakis' lead was very short lived. 

    As a side note, I think that's why Trump wanted to have an in person convention so badly. He probably thought that by having a big convention he could pull the same reversal that Bush did in '88. 

    • Hook 'Em 1
  7. 51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

    As someone who wants Trump out, I'm skeptical of the polls until I see Trump lose. There are more people than you think that feel ashamed to publicly support Trump but let's see how they vote when no one is looking. In their minds, they will create the justification and feel good about their choice.

    Secret Trump Voters Didn’t Decide 2016 And Probably Won’t Swing 2020

    • Like 2
  8. 1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

    I don’t have a link, but Trump is trailing in some very important states in Trumps favorite pollster.

    rasmussen has Biden leading trump 51-46 in Pennsylvania 

    rasmussen also has Biden leading Trump 50-46 in Ohio.

    whats notable about both is the pollster ( they always skew in favor of the GOP) and that Biden is over 50 in these states.

    I seem to recall that Clinton wasn’t breaking over 50 barely anywhere in 2016.
     

     

     

    Here's the latest RCP numbers for Pennsylvania: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

    Rasmussen has a "mean reverted bias" of R +1.5 - meaning that their sampling methodology results in a slight R tilt. Keep in mind that doesn't mean anything other than how they sample - many quality pollsters have numbers like that one way or another. Fox News/Beacon has a D +1.4 and is considered one of the best polling outfits.

    Hillabeast hit 50 in one poll at this time in 2016, but that was a Monmouth poll with a MOE +/- 5 points which is awful and shouldn't have been published. 

  9. 18 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

    Have you seen a poll where Trump is underwater with whites generally? I haven't. Don't sugarcoat this turd.

    Look, I know where Trump's support lies. But Jamele is pushing an agenda here. 

    Black and Hispanic voters have always tilted towards the Democrats. There's nothing new here. 

    What is important is that Trump has lost significant support amongst suburban whites and by a YUGE and BIGLY margin. 

    That's clearly not indicated in the tweet and you know why. 

    • Like 1
  10. 24 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    ok i wasn't really watching when this part happened, so maybe somebody can fill me in.  but wallace says, "here's a new poll, and you'll be the first to hear it", then he reads him the results of the fox news poll.  to which trump responds that they only polled 22% republicans as their sample.

    is that part of the breakdown, or was it part of some other poll, or is it made up?  i assume trump hasn't seen all the crosstabs and breakdowns if wallace was reading him a brand new poll.  i didn't hear any follow-up, or sure if there even was any.

    https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/07/Fox_July-12-15-2020_Complete_National_Topline_July-19-Release.pdf

    42% R/Lean R

    So he either said 22 meaning to say 42 or he just pulled it out of his ass. Most likely the latter.

  11. 31 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

    I don't know anything about polling science, but an interesting statistic would be the to collect who a respondent voted for in 2016 and who they plan to vote for in 2020.

    A lot of polls do just that. 

    For example, here's a PPP poll from June that asks that question: https://progresstexas.org/sites/default/files/June 2020 Progress Texas-PPP Poll.pdf

    I want to say I read it's not that great of an indicator but can't remember where I read it - so take this with a grain of salt.

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