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Posts posted by The Dog
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Here's a poll I bet Trump tweets about later today: https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/504724-poll-bidens-2020-lead-narrows
Regional breakdown of the sample:
Northeast: 18%
Midwest: 21%
South: 37%
West: 24%
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11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:
hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote
You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect?
Really?
He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html
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16 minutes ago, Tuco said:
I don't know NPD, but I do know developers.
When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards. They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size. It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation. I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence. (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate. The next few months could be interesting. Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran? Pulling out of NATO? That would change the calculation. Supporting reparations? Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago.
If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right. Remember he put him on the ticket to secure their support.
But if you are of the type who is hoping the Republican Party exits this election in a heap of smoldering ash then you should be rooting for this.
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Trump:2020::Hillary:2016
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11 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
Well except for that 97% vote for statehood a few years ago.
It was boycotted by opponents of statehood.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Puerto_Rican_status_referendum
By the way, it does appear statehood in PR has more support now than in the past, but it's a very narrow majority.
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Puerto Rico has turned down every opportunity to become a state. There are certainly a lot of people there who want statehood, but the majority do not.
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Something something don't interrupt your enemy when making a mistake something else....
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9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:
While that’s true in reality, the DSA/Bernie folks spent months attacking her with the “KAMALA IS A COP!” narrative and painting her as shitlib/neolib etc.
And their dug in bitter stubbornness makes them physically incapable of admitting that is bullshittery.ah ok. now I get it.
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3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:
... you think Harris is the far left’s choice?No, I just said she'd keep them in the fold. She's one of the most liberal senators in the US Senate.
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11 minutes ago, Radical Larry said:
That Texas poll is an R +6 sample boys and girls.
Texas party identification is around R +4 at best.
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Harris helps with the far left but she doesn't expand the map.
If he has any concerns about the swing states then a selection representing one of those would be smart.
He's probably going to have to settle with her, which will be fine and should keep the base energized. It's the same school of thought Trump had when he chose Pence in order to keep the Christian right in the fold.
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Kind of like what the Democrats did with GWB - they set expectations so low that when he wasn't a complete disaster in the debates he ended up "winning" even though many experts thought he lost.
If Trump is doing the same with Biden then I'd expect the same, only Trump doesn't really debate. He just rants.
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3 debates is the tradition in recent elections. Trump wanted more and Biden told him to fuck off.
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2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:
i think after 16 months of steady polling, we can stop using the term "margin of error" with any level of credibility.
4 point lead in one poll = moe. 4 point lead in all the polls = a 4 point lead.
I agree with that - I'm just pointing out the apparent massive leads that some are putting out there and that those are likely the outliers.
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2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:
The unskewer has arrived on cue. I'm sure Nate Cohn is sitting around waiting to hear The Dog's thoughts on sample weighting.
Direct quote from Redfield & Wilton's results, which is all I'm saying:
"These differences all fall within the Margins of Error, such that while the President lost significant ground in our national poll earlier this month, we are hesitant to say the picture has substantively changed in these six swing states."
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/
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4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:
Jacksonville went to trump last time. Duval county is very important.
Biden is supposedly polling well there.
Agreed and I was going to mention that but I don't buy those polls yet.
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You have to remember that outside of the greater Miami/FLL/West Palm area that Florida is basically Georgia or Alabama.
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I'd recommend taking those NYT state polls with with a healthy grain of salt. The samples are crap. Don't be surprised if Trump "closes the gap" even if nothing significant happens in future polls. Very high sampling error in those.
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Yeah the original Thrawn trilogy isn't canon, but the character himself is.
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Good conversation on 538 about the election: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-path-is-the-trump-presidency-on-now/
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At some point, you have to acknowledge that all the polls agree right now--Trump is down by double digits. And that is a shocking place for an incumbent president to be as we near July 4 of an election year. I'm thinking back, and it may be unprecedented (Jimmy Carter didn't really tank until the last two weeks of the campaign).
Oh I agree he’s down big - too many polls showing he’s in serious trouble. -
10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:
Their sample is nominally 38.5% D, 33.2% Ind, 28.3% R.
Pew says registration is 33% D, 34% Ind., 29% R.
I'm not seeing a whole lot of disconnect here. So, lets go ahead and "unskew" to match Pew and knock 5.5% off the D sample, add 0.8% to Indies, and add 0.7% to R. Congrats, I guess Trump is down 9-10 instead of 14.
It's about credibility IMHO. They oversampled Democrats badly.
For example, the latest Fox poll has Biden up 12 with a D+5 sample. They also ask people which party they lean so they can find out who is really independent and they found only about 13% were true independents (which dovetails with the earlier conversation on this thread). It doesn't fit Pew's numbers exactly either, but at least they got the split between the two major parties right.
So as ugly as the NYT poll is for Trump, the Fox one is even uglier even though the margin appears smaller.
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9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
No, no. I have NEVER seen the kind of focused, furious motivation among Democrats as I do right now. Not during he Bush years, not ever. People can't wait to vote. For the first time since it's founding. Democrats have a single focus that is the most important issue across the entire coalition. That's never happened since the advent of direct presidential elections.
I'd say in 2008 the Democrats were pretty motivated.
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8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:
With all due respect to Nate, it's a D +10 sample. National party identification is D +4 according to the Pew Research Center.
2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted
Yeah I'd love to have him continue to bury his head in the sand but the ad buy in Georgia tells us what we need to know about his internals.