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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. 11 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

    hahahahahahaha Trump could perform an abortion on prime-time TV and still get 95% of their vote

    You honestly believe that jettisoning Mike Pence, who has been one of his biggest supporters and is a fave of the religious right, won't have an effect? 

    Really?

    He's ALREADY losing evangelical support. Canning Pence would make it worse.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/04/us/politics/trump-polls-christians-evangelicals.html

    • Like 1
  2. 16 minutes ago, Tuco said:

    I don't know NPD, but I do know developers. 

    When a deal starts going south - when the math in the pro forma concludes that it is a bad investment - they just reshuffle the cards.  They throw out new wild configurations. Cut the building in half or double its size.  It doesn't matter, but just something different to change the math, or confuse the calculation.  I would not be surprised to see Trump fire Parscale or dump Pence.  (No surprise there.) I would also expect wild new proposals to reframe the debate.  The next few months could be interesting.  Pushing to cut testing, despite what every logical person believes, is just the start. Bombing Iran?  Pulling out of NATO?  That would change the calculation.  Supporting reparations?  Why not. He will do anything to change the math, and he is even less tied to traditional GOP leadership than he was 4 years ago. 

    If Trump dumps Pence then he loses the religious right. Remember he put him on the ticket to secure their support. 

    But if you are of the type who is hoping the Republican Party exits this election in a heap of smoldering ash then you should be rooting for this. 

  3. Harris helps with the far left but she doesn't expand the map.

    If he has any concerns about the swing states then a selection representing one of those would be smart.

    He's probably going to have to settle with her, which will be fine and should keep the base energized. It's the same school of thought Trump had when he chose Pence in order to keep the Christian right in the fold. 

  4. 2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

    i think after 16 months of steady polling, we can stop using the term "margin of error" with any level of credibility.

    4 point lead in one poll = moe.  4 point lead in all the polls = a 4 point lead.

    I agree with that - I'm just pointing out the apparent massive leads that some are putting out there and that those are likely the outliers. 

  5. 2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    The unskewer has arrived on cue. I'm sure Nate Cohn is sitting around waiting to hear The Dog's thoughts on sample weighting.

     

    Direct quote from Redfield & Wilton's results, which is all I'm saying:

    "These differences all fall within the Margins of Error, such that while the President lost significant ground in our national poll earlier this month, we are hesitant to say the picture has substantively changed in these six swing states."

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-usa-swing-state-voting-intention-14-to-19-june/

  6. At some point, you have to acknowledge that all the polls agree right now--Trump is down by double digits.  And that is a shocking place for an incumbent president to be as we near July 4 of an election year.  I'm thinking back, and it may be unprecedented (Jimmy Carter didn't really tank until the last two weeks of the campaign).

    Oh I agree he’s down big - too many polls showing he’s in serious trouble.
  7. 10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    Their sample is nominally 38.5% D, 33.2% Ind, 28.3% R.

    Pew says registration is 33% D, 34% Ind., 29% R. 

    I'm not seeing a whole lot of disconnect here. So, lets go ahead and "unskew" to match Pew and knock 5.5% off the D sample, add 0.8% to Indies,  and add 0.7% to R. Congrats, I guess Trump is down 9-10 instead of 14.

    It's about credibility IMHO. They oversampled Democrats badly. 

    For example, the latest Fox poll has Biden up 12 with a D+5 sample. They also ask people which party they lean so they can find out who is really independent and they found only about 13% were true independents (which dovetails with the earlier conversation on this thread). It doesn't fit Pew's numbers exactly either, but at least they got the split between the two major parties right. 

    So as ugly as the NYT poll is for Trump, the Fox one is even uglier even though the margin appears smaller.

  8. 9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

    No, no. I have NEVER seen the kind of focused, furious motivation among Democrats as I do right now. Not during he Bush years, not ever. People can't wait to vote. For the first time since it's founding. Democrats have a single focus that is the most important issue across the entire coalition. That's never happened since the advent of direct presidential elections. 

    I'd say in 2008 the Democrats were pretty motivated. 

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