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The Dog

Burnt Ends
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Posts posted by The Dog

  1. For those of you worried about the "shy Trump voter", chew on this for a second from Charlie Cook: (NSIAP)

    "I asked the Quinnipiac people -- they're terrific, by the way -- I asked them today if they could run something to see, okay, of the people that have an unfavorable view of both Donald Trump and Joe Biden, how do they break? And Biden is ahead 49-18 among the people that dislike both of them while they cut by a 20-point margin against Hillary Clinton."

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/05/20/charlie_cook_voters_that_dislike_both_trump_and_biden_will_vote_49-18_for_biden_in_2016_it_was_20_trump.html

  2. 1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

    Fox is pretty fucking good at polling imo. I’ve never noticed any GOP slant. Feel like they try to get it right. I think they were an A rated pollster in the last election by 538

    they are - and use two different polling firms. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

    (I had to click the "show more pollsters" to get them to come up)

  3. 9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

    PPP has Biden up 6 in Michigan.

    In "WTF" news,  a polling firm was commissioned by a GOP pac to do WI, MI and PA and came up with some weird outlier results that seem based off bad demographic samples.

    They have Biden up 9 in both MI and WI, but their samples seem too D or too college-educated. They also have Biden down 5 in PA but that's off a far too GOP sample. 

    PPP is a registered voters poll whereas the one with Biden +3 is likely voters. Still safe to say Biden is ahead.

    I saw those WTF polls on 538. That polling firm don't even have a grade from them. 

  4. 3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

    Why people still think Trump will win (or at least has a good shot of winning) is pretty obvious. He's got a substantial built-in electoral college advantage and he already surprised us in 2016 despite polling that was pretty similar. I think people are giving those concerns too much weight given how high strong disapproval of Trump now is, and a lot of people who hated Hillary with the fire of a trillion suns generally like Biden, but Dems are certainly fighting from the low ground. 

    There's also the likelihood that Trump, his administration, and Republicans in every state they control will cheat.

    Yeah I don't agree with any of that. The map looks very good for Biden and as was mentioned upthread there is a good chance that Trump is going to have to waste valuable time and resources campaigning in what should be "safe" states for him. That is very, very bad news for Trump.

    Just MHO.

  5. 39 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

    Carter had similar numbers and people look back at that election and say "Of course Reagan won, nobody liked Jimmy Carter"

    Yet now, everyone is "Teflon Don can't lose because of his rock solid 43%"

    Not quite sure what you are saying here but by May Carter was barely polling 40%. The only reason he had a lead was that Anderson was taking some of what would become Reagan's vote. 

    But if you're saying you don't understand why people think Trump will win then I agree. I think Trump Derangement Syndrome has clouded people's judgment - Trump is in serious trouble and there's no Hillary on the ballot this time. 

  6. 1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
    8 minutes ago, The Dog said:
    Understand why you feel that way - Florida has large numbers of loyal voters and they are split right down the middle with few "swing" voters, so margins are currently razor thin. 
    That and Florida seems to have forgotten how to run an election...

    Florida olds vote like it's keeping them alive, they vote Republican, and there are a shitload of them. I've always just figured that and everything north of Miami essentially being AL or GA keeps the electorate more Republican than the overall population. Which is why Trump losing ground in that group is so significant. Olds elected him. He's turbofucked without them. Long way to go though, could very easily turn back around.

    Biden needs to not overplay the hand he's been dealt.

  7. Just now, gmr548 said:

    Always was hyperbole, but my point was that Democrats - Clinton, Guillum, Nelson, etc and on down the line back to Al Gore - find ways to lose the state.

    As an aside, Obama was in a pretty strong position as an incumbent. Historically a high 40s approval rating has meant a very good chance of winning. He was also better in swing states than he was nationally - sort of the opposite of a Hillary Clinton. The polls were closeish but I don't recall there being much doubt about that election by November.

    Understand why you feel that way - Florida has large numbers of loyal voters and they are split right down the middle with few "swing" voters, so margins are currently razor thin. 

    That and Florida seems to have forgotten how to run an election...

  8. 31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
    1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:
    I will never mentally count Florida as anything other than a loss. If it goes our way, we were probably going to win anyway. 

    Yep. Democrats always lead FL polls. And unless they're named Obama, they lose the state.

    This isn't correct. In 2012 Romney led the polls and even was polling above 50% in several and still lost the state. The only polls that had Obama ahead were well within the margin of error: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html 

    Obama winning that state was kind of an upset considering the polls. 

    Keep in mind that Obama wasn't a very popular incumbent - his approval rating was below 50% for most of 2012. His approval rating ended up higher near the end of his second term, but re-election was anything but guaranteed. 

  9. 17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

    The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
     

    We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
    Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

    I think it's that the disease took hold here at the same time as it did in Europe or much sooner than we realized at the time but we didn't have the urgency at the time since our medical system wasn't being overrun (at least to the extent of the horror shows we were hearing about in China and Italy). Obviously we are now aware that it was here much sooner than anyone originally thought and I think that played a pretty big role in the decision making. 

  10. 3 hours ago, oSuJeff97 said:

    Negative.

    All of the old EU stuff, even the stuff that was previously considered canon (LucasFilm video games, books, etc.) were dumped from canon when Disney bought LucasFilm.  That stuff is now called "Star Wars: Legends" but is not considered part of official canon.

    The official canon (as of now) are the 9 saga films, Rogue One and Solo; plus the various animated and live-action series (Clone Wars, Rebels, Resistance, The Manadlorian), and any post-Disney purchase video games/comics/books/etc. (I don't know all of those off the top of my head).

    that's correct, but they have also shown to take "legends" material and make it canon by introducing them in various ways such as Thrawn in Rebels and Revan in Rise of Skywalker. 

    I wouldn't be surprised to see Legends material end up in The Mandalorian. 

  11. Well based on the way Rebels ended, I would be shocked if we didn't get a Thrawn portrayal if we're getting Ezra.
    Probably some type of end of season cliff hanger.

    For all the credit Filioni and Favreau get the smartest thing they did in Rebels was to bring in Thrawn - a creation of Timothy Zahn.
    • Like 1
  12. So something I don't understand - why is the confirmed case fatality rate so much lower here than the rest of Europe (outside of Germany)? Even our worst state - Michigan, with a CCFR over 9% - is better than the UK, France, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands. And even then, the majority of US states (even those with large case numbers like California and Illinois) have better CCFR numbers than even Germany. 

    What's the reason? We just lucky? It's not the age of the population. It's not air pollution or air quality (even though I think Europe's reporting on air quality is dubious).

    What gives?

  13. Just now, Treefidy said:

    Anyone else  ever get the feeling the occupational backgrounds on surly look something like this?

    5 physicians, 2 accountants, 3 realtors, couple of small business owners, maybe a dozen tech guys, a military lifer or two, half a dozen construction contractors, couple of teachers, a few unemployed oil barons, a handful of retirees, 4 professional douchebags and around 6,000 lawyers?

     

    Most of us are just gainfully employed slackers.

    • Like 2
  14. 30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


     

     


    That's not the post I quoted. The post I quoted was based on the leading question, "Do you really think there's better out there?" Thats a silly question because 1.) What data there is says yes, and 2.) That's highly subjective and heavily influenced by your individual circumstances. Either way, to ask that question as if it's absurd is dead wrong.

    As for the gap in life expectancy between Canada, US, and Mexico: the UN rankings for 2019 have Canada at 82.3 years, USA at 78.9 years (3.4 year gap), and Mexico at 75.0 years (3.9 year gap). Other sources effective less recently but within the past five years estinate a similar gap. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/list_of_countries_by_life_expectancy

    You could pick nits about being a couple months better than right in the middle, but you get the point. I would imagine it's abject poverty in black and rural communities in this country that doesn't exist in Canada, and really does resemble third world conditions, that explains that difference.

     

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_life_expectancy

    Take a look at the states with increased life expectancy and those with decreased life expectancy. It's not what you'd expect. 

    (life expectancy talk not going away)

    • Like 1
  15. 12 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    Well he's enrolled, so no one's recruiting him. Probably ran out of teams willing to put up with his shit.

    ah I didn't see that. been multitasking this morning. the post I saw said he was "committed" and not enrolled. 

  16. 2 hours ago, Drew said:

    I actually don't hate that at all.

     

    They better have a very fucking good explanation for how Boba Fett lived though.

    there isn't one. I sure hope this isn't true because I think Boba Fett is stupidly overrated. and he died - and isn't a force user so there's no "using the force somehow" to cheat death. 

    The sarlacc ate him. He's desert poop. The End.

    Totally on board with Rex though. 

    • Like 1
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