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Snake Diggity

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Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. Haven’t seen much discussion on running mates for Biden.  When is he expected to announce?  Looking at D Governors and Senators, here’s how I’d group/handicap:

    Criteria:

    Democrat

    Not over 70

    Experience as a governor or senator 

    Bonus points for being female, minority, or in a swing state

     

    Favorites:

    Kamala Harris

    Amy Klobuchar

    Debbie Stabenow

    Sherrod Brown

    Tammy Baldwin

    Corey Booker

     

    Qualified darkhorses:

    Michael Bennet

    John Bel Edwards

    Michelle Lujan

    Jay Inslee

    Tammy Duckworth

    Gary Peters

    Maggie Hassan

    Kirsten Gillibrand

    Patty Murray

    Maria Cantwell

     

    Darkhorses who are short on experience or are too old: Gretchen Whitmer, Liz Warren, Gavin Newsom, Kate Brown, Catherine Masto 

     

    Others, qualified: Jared Polis, John Carney, David  Ige, JB Pritzker, Steve Bullock, Phil Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Ralph Northam, Tim Walz , Chris Murphy, Chris Coons, Brian Schatz, Mazie Hirono, Chris Van Hollen, John Tester, Bob Menendez, Martin Heinrich, Chuck Schumer, Jeff Merkley, Bob Casey, Sheldon Whitehouse, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, 

    Others who lack experience: Ned Lamont, Andy Beshear, Steve Sisolak, Roy Cooper, Tom Wolf, Gina Raimondo, Tony Evers, Doug Jones, Kyrsten Sinema, Tina Smith, Jay Rosen

    Rumored, not qualified: Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, Susan Rice, KLB

     

  2. Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?  Seems like all of a sudden this thread is a Biden victory party.  (Before I go on, let me be clear:  I FUCKING HATE DONALD TRUMP.)

    Theres still 6 months to the election and a ton can change in that time.  Biden hasn’t announced his running mate.  There haven’t been any debates.  The economy could improve quickly.  There could be election meddling (both foreign and domestic).  Hell, Biden could die or get too sick to run.  Sure, the vast majority of the polls indicate Biden will win, as does common sense.  But that was also the case in 2016.  And it seems like betting lines still favor Trump.

     

    Just seems like the consistent refrain of this thread that the election is in the bag for Biden and this is the end of the line for narrow-worldview-right-wing influence might be jumping the gun a bit.

  3. 6 hours ago, Iceman said:

    That part is absolutely real.  The shutdown of commerce and businesses is indisputable. You are positing that everyone is toeing the line and staying away from one another, because it sure as fuck isn’t what I’m seeing, nor is it what my counterparts  who work in the public are experiencing either.

    It’s a fucking shell game, at best; with regard to folks abiding by the prescribed tactics.  

    The man has “counterparts that work in the public”.  And he said “fuck” twice.  I think we should listen to him.

    • Like 2
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  4. 11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


    The former: agreed, that's not a significant number of voters.

    The latter: Trump's victories in WI and MI are directly attributable to decreased turnout in Milwaukee and Detroit metro areas. Biden's strength among black voters and anger towards Trump amongst suburban voters makes it pretty likely that doesn't happen again. Trump is going to have to find new votes to win those two states.

    I hope you’re right.  I am once burned twice shy to think the blacks will come out for a white candidate.  And I just don’t see the suburban anger you refer to.  To me, those are single issue voters, and nothing’s changed for them.

    • Fuck You 1
  5. 4 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

    VP's don't really "deliver" states, especially outside of their own.  They deliver generally about 1-2% upswing for the party in their own state.  If Biden won two of the midwest states you list and he takes Arizona, which is trending well at this time, then that's 272 in a worst case scenario.  He doesn't need a southern state.  A southern state makes it a huge win most likely.

     

    I believe the right black VP could be the difference in several southern states, and the right VP candidate from a southern state could deliver his/her home state.  That could be the difference in the election.

    4 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

    You have got to be kidding with this bullshit.

    Biden has a 30 percent chance to win and it requires him winning either Florida or Georgia? What a craptastic take.

    Ok cocksucker, lay out your details then, you fucking infected boil.

    4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

    i can't tell what's satire anymore.

    Me either.

    3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

    Number 4 is spot on. The rest is poppycock. 

    The first sentence of your comment was spot on.  The 2nd part is worthless.

     

    29 minutes ago, WBT said:

    Seriously?  Hillary Clinton isn't running for starters.  Trump also has a record now instead of being able to run as an outsider/blank canvas.  He still has his base but it's not big enough and never was without those other factors.

    I think a lot of people in this thread are setting themselves up for disappointment again.  Who voted for Trump in 2016 that is going Biden in 2020?  And how likely is it that Biden is able to get enough people who stayed home in 2016 to come out in 2020?

  6. Despite the pandemic and worst economic quarter in American history, nothing has changed that might swing anyone who voted Trump in 2016 to vote Biden in 2020.  If I was a betting man, I would bet heavy on Trump to win.

    That said, there is a path to victory for Biden and it hinges on getting black voters in key states to come out.  Here is the winning formula:

    1. Obama spends the next 7 months in the Midwest campaigning furiously for Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.  He’s got to deliver 2 of those to Biden.

    2. Biden selects a black running mate, preferably from the South.  That person has to be able to deliver one southern state that went to Trump in 2016, preferably Georgia or Florida.

    3. Biden has to (literally) stay alive and just try his best not to fuck up.  However, he needs to be extremely aggressive in the debates.

    4. The Democrats need to be prepared for legal challenges, voter fraud, election rigging, foreign interference in vote counts, and post-election rioting.  Trump will not go down quietly and his exit will he unlike anything our country has ever seen, whether that’s next year or in 5 years.

     

    I think there’s only about a 30% chance of that happening.  

  7. 9 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

    Not a chance are we locking down until 2021, and that is how long it will take to get a vaccine. 

    I believe a treatment is going to be available this fall, with a vaccine available next spring.  But even if it isn’t, we haven’t been locked down everywhere and we don’t need to be.  Lockdown can be limited to areas with increasing hospitalization rates.

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  8. 21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

    "Hits again?"  We have real-world data on what it does when allowed to spread unchecked.  The death toll in NYC tells us that.  NYC is seeing something like 3X the average daily number of deaths -- logic tells us that spike is COVID-related (as there's no other outlier cause we're aware of).  

    If we do not reduce transmission, we have a spike in deaths.  The data doesn't tell us exactly what the RATE is, but it tells us unambiguously that we'll have a spike -- more people will die than otherwise would have.  A lot more.

    And again, hospitalization rate and hospitalization stay.  This is a bad fucking disease, and without appropriate measures, it can and will kill a lot of people.

    We have taken steps to keep that number low.  Those steps are killing us economically.  You can reduce deaths.  Or you can have a functioning economy.  We can't have both.

    We have a functioning economy, it’s just functioning at 70% of what it was 3 months ago.

    The question is whether locking down to prevent the spread until a vaccine or treatment is available is worth the financial cost, and the answer is a resounding YES, simply because the alternative (opening up) would result in the same economic impact, it would just be much worse (because people will quarantine themselves once the hospitals are overrun.

    • Like 1
  9. 3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    We need that testing, but it’s got to be paid for somehow, and there’s a lot of people that need to be at the front of the line for testing (and who shouldn’t have to pay for it), before any Joe Schmoe can walk up and be tested.    I’m planning on getting the testing soon, and I’m more than happy to pay for it, but not everybody is willing to shell out the money.  

    Hospitalization rates would be great, but there’s a problem.  
    https://www.kxan.com/investigations/central-texas-hospitals-and-officials-not-releasing-covid-19-suspected-case-counts-and-why-that-matters/

    That article was a week ago, but it would be good information to have if they plan on easing things on May 8.   

    Hospitalization rate doesn’t have to be limited to COVID related cases to be an effective measure by which to make decisions.  At this point it’s safe to assume that the trajectory of hospitalization in an area (regardless of why) reflects the rate of COVID infection.

  10. Seems like given the lack of reliable data on infections and deaths, the best approach to reopening would be to use hospitalization rate as the measure.  Any county where the hospitalization rate is increasing should be on lock down.  Any county with stable or decreasing rates should be opened up after Memorial Day.  Supplement that with nationwide guidance on large gatherings, wearing masks, extra caution for elderly/compromised, and it will probably be fine.  I also think severely limiting international flights (with mandatory pre-boarding temperature checks) would be good.

    We need antibody testing everywhere.  It’s insane to me that it isn’t a higher priority.

  11. 1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

     

    Q4/Q4% isn't quarter over quarter. Only being off from same period, year prior, by 6.9% looks like a rosy outlook. 2020 looks like is a lost year. We're all trying to predict a future after a global black swan with no precedent. Maybe the Q3/Q4 percentages are validated, but I don't see the YOY ratio for Q4 being close. I guess it starts with how far things go for Q2.

    Major segments of the economy aren't just in a lull, they've disappeared, and some permanently:

    -Sports is a top 10, maybe top 5, industry in the US. When does it return? Hint: probably not at all in 2020. Poof, gone. I'm not just talking large gatherings and the pro sports. Little League has been canceled. Pop Warner is in jeopardy. Most golf courses are closed. 

    -Restaurants, hotels, casinos, tourist attractions (when does Carlsbad Caverns open back up to large groups of people crowding together in cold, damp, dark places?), tourist cities (Vegas and NYC going to be booming by Q4 ahead of a vaccine?) amusement parks, movies, filming tv and movies, airlines, rental cars - these things are all fragile shells of themselves or gone for the time being. There's probably 20-30 other types of businesses that can be flatly lumped into this. It all sucks, but I don't feel like it's hyperbole.

    -Energy - right

    -Car manufacturing and sales - not good, Bob. How about boats, hoes and planes? 

    -Healthcare - you yourself have highlighted the mass peril and the absolute need for a bailout just to see it survive.

    40% fall off from the prior quarter looks rosy, as insane as that is to type. Things hummed as normal in the US until basically the week of March 6, when SXSW was canceled that Friday. The dominos fell from that week forward. 40% worse for Q2 presumes that we're all back at it at some point in May, picking up where we left off. Q1 had the luxury of running as planned for 70% of the cycle. Q2 won't have that for a single day. 

    None of this even considers all of the global dependencies tied to recovery, and other countries are going to have to swing back well too. We don't even know what kind of social and economic wounds this has uncovered and how they'll be repaired in other places, for better or worse.

    We all know we won't be back to BAU by any time in May. How about mid-June? When we come back, is it really roaring back? Voids in all of those industries are appropriately filled throughout the 2nd half of the year and long term user behaviors haven't changed? I don't see any of that being the case, but I hope others are right.

     

    I just don’t see it contracting that much.  Yes, restaurants, entertainment, and many industries that require large numbers of people gathered together either as employees or customers are temporarily screwed.  But 40% would mean the average person isn’t even engaging in their most fundamental spending (mortgage, car payments, groceries, utilities).  My guess is 30% down for Q2, with stimulus helping make most of that back gradually over the next 12 months.  
     

    We will be in recession until a vaccine is ready, but I think unemployment will be single digits by Q4.

  12. 2 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

    Is there any chance things are back to normal in 2020? I see people talking about May, June, July and I don't get it, but I'm also a moron. Won't this virus just keep shitting on us until there is an extremely effective treatment or vaccine developed?

    Posted many pages ago but still think this is a reasonable expectation:

    Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

    May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

    Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

    Jul 4: MLB season begins

    Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

    Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

    Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

     

    The only change to that I would make is that I think we will see hot spots pop up continually and will be playing whackamole until a vaccine is ready.  This makes it less likely large gatherings (especially sporting events) happen as normal.  But I do think we will get baseball and football, it just may be modified to account for hotspots.

  13. 1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

    I continue to have a hard time believing that in four to five weeks we are going to open up businesses again and not see an explosion of cases that puts us right back to an overwhelmed hospital system, unless warm weather truly does kill the virus.

    Assuming we have seen an obvious (real) drop in cases, and still keep restrictions on large gatherings (>10, which means no school, no events, most restaurant dining rooms still closed), I don’t think they’ll see a big spike.

  14. 1 hour ago, XYZ said:

    If they are going for elimination, then it looks to me like it’s not quite working. They are holding steady on daily new cases, which is much better than most other countries, but you need a decline if you want to eliminate it. Still, even if they were able to pull it off, then what? You keep your borders closed to the outside world until there’s a vaccine? Herd immunity or vaccine, those are the only two solutions.

    Mandatory testing/quarantine for all people entering the country.  They are an island.  They can do it.

  15. 11 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

    I still don’t understand you once a week grocery shoppers. Why?  We haven’t been in a store in around 4 weeks. I presume most of you have a decent sized refrigerator and pantry?  It’s an unnecessary risk for us. 
     

    just ordered out for the first time on Saturday, a bunch of pizza. Boxes never came inside, I put the pizzas on oven trays and then right into the oven for a heat bath. 
     

    why make so many trips to the most crowded place left that’s not a hospital?

    This.  Nobody should be going to the grocery store more than twice a month, and 90% of people should be using curbside or delivery for those 2 trips.

    • Like 1
  16. 1 hour ago, CleverNickname said:

    Last 2 curbside / instacarts have left some big holes they they couldn't fill. We could go another week without shopping, but it would mean kids bitching about lack of salty snacks, etc. So... should I just mask up and get it done, or endure sub-optimal food for the duration? I'm not really understanding what the guidance is at the moment.

    You can probably get any non-perishables online via Amazon or WalMart.  I have had no issues getting all snacks, drinks, paper goods (except TP) in less than a week.  

  17. 1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

    I'd like to believe the reports that we're making progress.  So this question assumes we are. 

     

    Exactly how does "the end" of this thing happen? If social distancing works, once we all stop doing it won't we just start this whole thing over?  What (other than a cure, vaccine, etc.) would make that not happen in perpetuity? 

    If this has been discussed I missed it.

    Oh, and a tiger at Bronx Zoo got it.

    Social distancing for all must be in place until at least one of the following happens:

    We have an available, proven treatment (in the works, likely by November)

    We have a vaccine (in the works, likely by Mar 2021).

    We have proven those who have it cannot get it again and have available, proven antibody tests (in the works, likely by June).

    We have available, proven, rapid infection testing (in the works, likely by June).

    We have proven social distancing has worked so well that the virus has been largely eradicated (unlikely ever).

     

  18. 59 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

    You will be fine.  I am going later today and I am not wearing a mask or gloves.  None of the employees do either.  Just keep your distance and nobody will bother you.  Don't live in fear, just be smart.

    Being smart means doing delivery/curbside.  Being slightly less smart would mean wearing something over your mouth and nose (for the dual purpose of preventing droplets in the air from entering but also preventing you from putting your hands there) and washing your hands immediately after leaving the store.  Being not smart (but not a complete dumbass) would be not wearing a mask but keeping distance.

    • Like 1
  19. 13 minutes ago, Tuco said:

    Yesterday, the number of daily deaths in the US dropped.  Might be an outlier.  Over the last few days, the number of daily deaths in Italy and Spain also dropped.  

    It does make me wonder if there has been a shift in treatment that has been successful.  Not saying it's a particular cocktail of pharmaceuticals, but it might be.  Hopefully the trend holds. 

    It is far more likely that the effects of social distancing are starting to show up.

  20. 5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

    Just spoke to my mom in Germany.  My cousin doctor in Bamberg finally got her test results, shes negative so shes going back to work.  Cant touch patients for another week though.  She said the Bamberg region has ~250ish cases, only 6 in ICU.  The German military is actually flying in Italian patients due to their ICU availability (German wide, not just Bamberg obviously), which is pretty ballsy IMO.  

    I was thinking about it this morning, I'm really surprised that we haven't instituted some kind of system that limits how and when people can move based on simple stuff like addresses.  We do similar during droughts, these numbers water Mon and Wed, these numbers are Tue and Thur.  Why cant we implement that kind of stuff for going to stores?  You would limit the exposure between areas and keep clusters more contained.  Check DLs or water bills at the door.  

    I think by and large people’s tolerance for restriction is (sadly) already maxed out.  Any further restrictions could tip the scales of social unrest, especially in a place like Texas.  And as time goes on the tolerance is only going to diminish.  I think if the current restrictions aren’t adequate to curb the spread, then herd/treatment/vaccine is the only hope.

  21. I have had depression and suicidal thoughts off an on (mostly on) for going on 20 years.  Oddly, the last 2 months have been some of the lowest levels of depression in over a decade and my suicidal thoughts are virtually gone.  So from that perspective I’m great.  And I have it really comparatively good: my wife and kids are healthy and relatively happy, my job is relatively safe and has been super supportive during this pandemic, and I have a good group of people to communicate with.

    But between the general worry related to what’s happening in the world, and having 2 kids under 4 home 24/7, being a semi-hypochondriac with this virus, and not being able to go anywhere, and the weather making it hard to even get outside...I’m in bad shape.  There are days where I truly wouldn’t argue if the white coats came to my door to haul me off.  I think most of my stress is coming from dealing with my kids.  Shit is taxing.

    I think I’ll be fine for another few weeks, but I need the weather to be good enough to go outside everyday, both to get exercise for myself and to have something else to do with the kids.  This forecasted 9 days of rain is a fuckin bummer.

    Prior to last month I was in a great routine of exercising, practicing gratitude/meditation, and  getting enough social interaction to be generally content and avoid the lowest lows, but that all went out the window the day we had to pull the kids out of daycare.

    • Like 1
  22. How’s this for an expected timeline:

    Apr 30: Nationwide stay-at-Home ends, cdc provides updated guidance on social distancing by geography, mass gatherings still prohibited everywhere.

    May 24: Many lesser affected areas remove all restrictions; elderly and immunocompromised still advised to stay home nationwide

    Jun 30: Successful treatment is established/standardized, all restrictions lifted except in hot spots.  Testing (both antibody and infection) finally readily available everywhere.

    Jul 4: MLB season begins

    Nov 30: Several new hot spots pop up, full quarantine implemented immediately 

    Jan 31, 2021: vaccines available in limited supply

    Mar 15, 2021: vaccine fully available, new long term normal established

     

    • Like 2
  23. I wonder if some of these small town mayors or red state governors secretly are taking the strategy of trying to gain herd immunity and get out ahead of everyone else, knowing that peaking now (rather than in 3+ weeks) means your people can still get treated in big city hospitals if needed.

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