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Snake Diggity

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Everything posted by Snake Diggity

  1. I suppose one could look at that and assume recession is imminent pretty much anytime unemployment goes below 3.5%. I don’t believe that but I could see someone taking that away from that chart.
  2. Yep, if Demings wins that likely means 53+ democratic Senators plus McMullin in UT. Not happening. Certainly things are trending better for the Democrats, and at this point it’s reasonable to expect them to keep control of the Senate. But hoping for more than that is probably foolish based on how misleading polls have been over the last 7 years.
  3. I have not researched the details of the IRA enough to know for sure, but is the bill a test of the MMT theory that inflation can be tamed by removing money supply via taxation? If so it’ll be interesting to see the impact. I am not a believer in MMT because I don’t have faith in politicians to be disciplined enough to levy additional taxes at the right times. My understanding of the basics of this bill is that it is intended to tax more than it spends, but I could be wrong about that.
  4. Down on the coast for a week. It’s amazing the difference between a high of 89 (plus a steady breeze) down here now and high of 103 (with the air as still as a corpse) up in Austin last week.
  5. Good job. We bought one of the plastic ones about that size that came in 3 pieces. So assembly was cake but I was still pissed about how much sq footage of our living room it took up. But I have been shocked by how much mileage my 2 girls have gotten out of that damn thing. They play with it everyday going on 5 years and probably have another 3-4 years left. I’ve eaten an absolute fuckton of imaginary food in the last half decade.
  6. Are we sure that isn’t just demographic trends playing out? Pandemic induced early retirement of boomers would drag that rate down, and that will iron itself out as they reach full retirement age.
  7. Gonna cost more than that. Schwarber’s $70M/4yrs is probably in range for him if he keeps hitting anything like this.
  8. Trump’s record: Domestic: -Attempt at trickle down economics via huge tax cuts while also embracing just about every stimulus possibility (include COVID stimulus) and bellowing at the fed to keep rates artificially low due to his obsession with the stock market, resulting in huge deficits and a can of inflation kicked down the road. -Funded COVID vaccine programs -Funded NASA -Installed 3 conservative Supreme Court justices -Actively undermined health experts (many of whom served under him) to worsen response to global pandemic (aside from vaccine programs) and divide the country as much as possible, resulting in the premature deaths of tens/hundreds of thousands. -Actively encouraged division, hatred, violence, insurrection, stupidity, and general negativity among the populace at every opportunity -Attempted to subvert democracy and overturn a free and fair election, irreversibly damaging our citizens’ faith in our democracy and elections. Foreign: -Trade war with China, installing tariffs that had mixed impact -Sent his son in law to ineffectually negotiate peace in Israel -Actively undermined NATO and generally catered to Russia -Ineffectually met with the North Korean dictator -Used his incessant boasting, shit talking, and obvious insecurities to worsen our reputation with just about everyone in the world.
  9. LoL sorry, I didn’t read past “prospective”.
  10. Biden is too old to be president and I only voted for him because of my disdain for Trump. But he is fucking crushing it. His Fed is threading the needle to a soft landing, getting inflation under control without seeing significant increases in unemployment. His SoS and DoD have steered Russia into losing a large scale kinetic war in Europe without a single US soldier’s boots on the ground, while also mitigating the economic fallout thru negotiations with the Saudis (oil) and Turkey (wheat). On top of that, they’ve leveraged the event to expand NATO. He’s effectively addressed pandemic-induced shortages of formula and fuel. And now he’s about to pass a bill that I believe will be moderately effective at addressing RX drug prices and reducing the budget deficit. I wish he’d been able to pass better protections for voting rights and election integrity, and I wish he could get comprehensive immigration reform to instill a firm but compassionate border policy that also serves to address a long term labor shortage (something that doesn’t even appear to be on the list). And he’s still too old to be president. But considering the narrow congressional majority and geopolitical conditions he’s been dealt, his administration has far exceeded my expectations so far.
  11. 528k jobs added. 3.5% unemployment. RECESS-SHONE!!! INFLA-SHONE!!!
  12. I don’t think the IRA will have a significant impact on inflation one way or the other. But I think the Fed (and the passage of time away from the shocks that caused it) will fix inflation relatively soon. I actually like what I’ve read about the bill.
  13. LOL at saying “there were plenty of good CF out there”, then referencing Michael Taylor, a career wRC+ 82 hitter who WAS NOT TRADED, and Joey Fucking Gallo, who is sporting a .282 OBP, 39% k rate, and wRC+ of 82. GMAFB. Like I said, if you wanna whine about it fine, but the reality was the market to improve CF just wasn’t there.
  14. I think there are a lot of “pro-life” “pro gun” voters who have always assumed they would never actually have to confront the consequences of their votes. Uvalde and Dobbs might’ve woken them up.
  15. I grew up in south Texas without AC until age 9, both at home and at school. I know I’ve gone soft since then, but it wasn’t like this. I try to run 3 miles a couple of times a week, and the way my schedule is with work (from home) and my kids, usually the only free time I have is between 2pm and 4pm. The last 6 weeks I just can’t fucking do it. I get about 1/3 of the way in and the last 2 miles is me just walking, getting sunburned, and cursing greenhouse gases and my own dumb ass.
  16. I am very skeptical that the Walker Warnock debate will actually happen but if it does that shit is gonna be like watching me fuck: sad and hilarious.
  17. 1B: Gurriel is hitting well the last 2 months; he is the 2021 batting champion and a clubhouse leader; I wouldn’t call that “glaring” but regardless they went out and got Mancini and Vazquez to upgrade the position. LF: Brantley has a 128 wRC+ on the year; McCormick has been well above average at 111. Again, wouldn’t call that glaring but they addressed it with Mancini. Catcher: it is clear the Astros have a totally different value on defense, gamecalling, and pitcher management than fans (and most other teams). But again, they addressed with Vazquez. CF: With Meyers being hurt this is the only reasonable spot you can say they have a “glaring” hole. But McCormick has been well above average here. And even with a gimpy arm and obvious rust Meyers grades very well on defense and merely bad (not horrible) on offense. If you assume he just needs a couple of weeks to get healthy and into a groove then this wouldn’t be viewed as a glaring hole. But even if it is, what would you have had Click do? Give up Luis Garcia for Harrison fuckin Bader? No star CF got moved. To beat out SD for Soto it would have taken something suicidal like Garcia, Javier, Brown, Leon, Whitley, and Diaz, and even that probably would not have beaten out the haul Washington got. Who knows what the asking prices for Mullins and Reynolds and Happ were but they were high enough that no other team pulled the trigger. So I guess it’s something to whine about but it doesn’t appear there was any realistic alternative to standing pat other than getting raped.
  18. Prices on CF must’ve been brutal; Yankees had to give up their #3 SP for Bader and none of Happ, Reynolds, or Mullins were moved. Houston had an average deadline. Low risk low reward moves. Only 3 teams (Padres, Twins, Yankees) clearly improved more. But luckily they went into the deadline not having any glaring holes. They should get a boost from McCullers coming back and calling up Brown, and it’s possible Meyers and Brantley both get fully healthy and perform really well. I am also thinking there’s a small chance of Pedro Leon getting a shot if Meyers flounders or gets hurt; Leon has cut his k rate the last 2 months which is an extremely encouraging sign given he’s already proven he has elite speed, arm, OF glove, and power.
  19. Meyers getting hurt sure did fuck shit up. Price might be prohibitive but Reynolds would be my target, followed by Mullins then Happ. I’d be willing to part with a lot for Reynolds; he’s on par with Springer. I’d also check on Yaz and Varsho. Michael Taylor is not an upgrade over Meyers/McCormick, and Laureano is an asshole.
  20. Not questioning your source but if Crane is threatening Click’s job at this point he is not as savvy of an owner as I thought he was. Click has been excellent. On the whole, the trades, free agency signings, and player development in his short tenure have been easily on par with what Luhnow did. He hasn’t made a blockbuster move yet, but he’s gotten this team to the ALCS and World Series so his performance has met/exceeded any reasonable bar.
  21. Vazquez would be an excellent pickup at the right price.
  22. I liked some of Yangs ideas but he’s a bad headliner for a 3rd party because he’s already cemented himself as a political loser. A legit moderate 3rd party in todays political world would have the following: Some super rich people with high Q scores who can fund it off the ground. Maybe somebody like Mark Cuban (maybe). Target lower level positions in purple areas. City council and mayoral spots in 2nd and 3rd tier cities. State congressional spots and House elections in purple areas. Take advantage of gerrymandering that leaves some districts vulnerable to well funded independent moderates. The 6 year goal would be to win 5 House seats, 5 recognizable mayoral spots, and a smattering of impactful state spots. Do that, hope your candidates are good and that the movement catches fire. Don’t run anyone for president until you are sure you’ve got a shot to actually win. This Forward deal ain’t that.
  23. Unignorable signs of inflation everywhere, but not many signs of recession that I have seen aside from a moderate cooling of housing prices; Zillow’s estimate of my home has gone down by $50k in the last month and several listed homes in my hood have cut their prices. But there’s still help wanted signs everywhere. I have been saying for 6 months that we could see a recession without ever seeing unemployment go above 5%. Unprecedented combo of demographic and geopolitical influences.
  24. Tim Ryan, Mandela Barnes, and Evan McMullin are not bad candidates. I really believe those races will be within 5 points. And it’s a shame Val Demings is up against someone as established as Rubio in FL because she’s a pretty solid candidate as well.
  25. Amazon guidance expecting 15% yoy sales growth in current quarter. RECESSION!!! OH, THE HUMANITY!
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