Snake Diggity

7 weeks to go, key dates for things that could change the outcome: 9/17: Fed meets on Sep 17-18; their announcement about rate changes could have dramatic impact on the stock market and sentiment toward Harris. 9/20: Early voting begins; exit polling and other insights might start showing up. 10/1: VP debate; for now it looks quite likely that Walz/Harris will receive another bump, but a major snafu could erode their momentum. 10/4: Sept jobs report released 10/10: Sept inflation report released 11/5: Election Day Unscheduled or unknown events that could change things: Assassinations and assassination attempts Health problems for either candidate or their running mates Scandals (affairs, etc.) Developments in Ukraine/Israel wars Significant stories involving illegal immigrants I think there’s more downside for Trump in the unknowns than for Harris. I think Trump is more likely to get killed, have healthy problems, or have a scandal. Harris is more vulnerable to negative outcomes related to stories on the economy, Ukraine/Israel, and immigration, but I think it’s limited. I don’t think the majority of Americans actually would prefer Trump to handle something like the aftermath of Putin firing off a nuke, or Iran escalating with the Israelies. Interestingly, it doesn’t look like the actual crimes that Trump has been indicted for are going to have any material impact on the election; that’s insane to me.

Gotta admit, Donald Trump is all class.

DaSentence Bosworth Absolut Verdict Maxamoose Richards Tactical Booty-Jones Buh-bye Terrence Abdullahad

Our system was not meant to withstand the pressures of Trumpism.

I do have to say that when Trump said “It’s like ‘Run, Spot. Run.’” I laughed my ass off. It’s the first time that piece of egomaniacal shit has ever made me legitimately laugh.

8 more weeks of him in the spotlight and us having to worry about him, followed by 12 weeks of him trying to overturn the election (assuming he loses). So we have at minimum another 20 weeks of having that piece of shit at the center of American politics.

Did Biden or his social media address Trump’s claim that Biden hates Kamala Harris?

Nah. None of the people she will mobilize to vote were watching the debate or paying any attention to the news of the day. They were watching The Eras Tour on Disney+. And right this minute they’re registering to vote.

God bless Taylor Swift. Quite possibly an American Hero.

Well we didn’t get him saying the N word and he didn’t go catatonic, but otherwise that could not possibly have gone better for Harris. Her closing speech was excellent. She’s up to the task.

Yeah but that’s like millions of people.

She’s clearly been trained not to call attention to Trump interrupting and getting additional time. As frustrating as it is to see Trump bully his way to the last word, I think Harris is making the right move there.

Sadly, the election is close enough that tonight’s debate could be a determining factor. Trump’s winning strategy: his advantage is that the bar for his performance is extremely low. Winning for him means clearing that low bar (I.e. don’t pull a McConnell freeze moment and don’t say the n word) while hoping Kamala doesn’t clear her much high bar (or goading her into doing something that turns off moderates/never-Trumpers/swing voters, or quells her base’s energy). Harris’ winning strategy: her advantage is that she is clearly the more qualified candidate and has all of the momentum. She needs to use the opportunity to highlight that disparity between her and Trump while destroying any notion that she is an extremist. Her message needs to be one of stability, moderation, and hope. Any progressive ideas need to be presented as complete common sense and highlight that any objection to them is evil/wierd. She must avoid misspeaking or losing her train of thought at any point. A Rick Perry “oops” moment would be fucked.

I’ve wondered about this. For one thing, if a rural/suburban wife in a swing/red state wants to vote Kamala, you know she’s “silent” otherwise her hubbie will beat that ass.

I’m not sure how my wife is juggling 2 families but I’m certain we married the same person.