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Snake Diggity

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  1. I suppose one could look at that and assume recession is imminent pretty much anytime unemployment goes below 3.5%. I don’t believe that but I could see someone taking that away from that chart.
  2. Yep, if Demings wins that likely means 53+ democratic Senators plus McMullin in UT. Not happening. Certainly things are trending better for the Democrats, and at this point it’s reasonable to expect them to keep control of the Senate. But hoping for more than that is probably foolish based on how misleading polls have been over the last 7 years.
  3. I have not researched the details of the IRA enough to know for sure, but is the bill a test of the MMT theory that inflation can be tamed by removing money supply via taxation? If so it’ll be interesting to see the impact. I am not a believer in MMT because I don’t have faith in politicians to be disciplined enough to levy additional taxes at the right times. My understanding of the basics of this bill is that it is intended to tax more than it spends, but I could be wrong about that.
  4. Down on the coast for a week. It’s amazing the difference between a high of 89 (plus a steady breeze) down here now and high of 103 (with the air as still as a corpse) up in Austin last week.
  5. Good job. We bought one of the plastic ones about that size that came in 3 pieces. So assembly was cake but I was still pissed about how much sq footage of our living room it took up. But I have been shocked by how much mileage my 2 girls have gotten out of that damn thing. They play with it everyday going on 5 years and probably have another 3-4 years left. I’ve eaten an absolute fuckton of imaginary food in the last half decade.
  6. Are we sure that isn’t just demographic trends playing out? Pandemic induced early retirement of boomers would drag that rate down, and that will iron itself out as they reach full retirement age.
  7. Gonna cost more than that. Schwarber’s $70M/4yrs is probably in range for him if he keeps hitting anything like this.
  8. Trump’s record: Domestic: -Attempt at trickle down economics via huge tax cuts while also embracing just about every stimulus possibility (include COVID stimulus) and bellowing at the fed to keep rates artificially low due to his obsession with the stock market, resulting in huge deficits and a can of inflation kicked down the road. -Funded COVID vaccine programs -Funded NASA -Installed 3 conservative Supreme Court justices -Actively undermined health experts (many of whom served under him) to worsen response to global pandemic (aside from vaccine programs) and divide the country as much as possible, resulting in the premature deaths of tens/hundreds of thousands. -Actively encouraged division, hatred, violence, insurrection, stupidity, and general negativity among the populace at every opportunity -Attempted to subvert democracy and overturn a free and fair election, irreversibly damaging our citizens’ faith in our democracy and elections. Foreign: -Trade war with China, installing tariffs that had mixed impact -Sent his son in law to ineffectually negotiate peace in Israel -Actively undermined NATO and generally catered to Russia -Ineffectually met with the North Korean dictator -Used his incessant boasting, shit talking, and obvious insecurities to worsen our reputation with just about everyone in the world.
  9. LoL sorry, I didn’t read past “prospective”.
  10. Biden is too old to be president and I only voted for him because of my disdain for Trump. But he is fucking crushing it. His Fed is threading the needle to a soft landing, getting inflation under control without seeing significant increases in unemployment. His SoS and DoD have steered Russia into losing a large scale kinetic war in Europe without a single US soldier’s boots on the ground, while also mitigating the economic fallout thru negotiations with the Saudis (oil) and Turkey (wheat). On top of that, they’ve leveraged the event to expand NATO. He’s effectively addressed pandemic-induced shortages of formula and fuel. And now he’s about to pass a bill that I believe will be moderately effective at addressing RX drug prices and reducing the budget deficit. I wish he’d been able to pass better protections for voting rights and election integrity, and I wish he could get comprehensive immigration reform to instill a firm but compassionate border policy that also serves to address a long term labor shortage (something that doesn’t even appear to be on the list). And he’s still too old to be president. But considering the narrow congressional majority and geopolitical conditions he’s been dealt, his administration has far exceeded my expectations so far.
  11. 528k jobs added. 3.5% unemployment. RECESS-SHONE!!! INFLA-SHONE!!!
  12. I don’t think the IRA will have a significant impact on inflation one way or the other. But I think the Fed (and the passage of time away from the shocks that caused it) will fix inflation relatively soon. I actually like what I’ve read about the bill.
  13. LOL at saying “there were plenty of good CF out there”, then referencing Michael Taylor, a career wRC+ 82 hitter who WAS NOT TRADED, and Joey Fucking Gallo, who is sporting a .282 OBP, 39% k rate, and wRC+ of 82. GMAFB. Like I said, if you wanna whine about it fine, but the reality was the market to improve CF just wasn’t there.
  14. I think there are a lot of “pro-life” “pro gun” voters who have always assumed they would never actually have to confront the consequences of their votes. Uvalde and Dobbs might’ve woken them up.
  15. I grew up in south Texas without AC until age 9, both at home and at school. I know I’ve gone soft since then, but it wasn’t like this. I try to run 3 miles a couple of times a week, and the way my schedule is with work (from home) and my kids, usually the only free time I have is between 2pm and 4pm. The last 6 weeks I just can’t fucking do it. I get about 1/3 of the way in and the last 2 miles is me just walking, getting sunburned, and cursing greenhouse gases and my own dumb ass.
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