Jump to content

Snake Diggity

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    2486
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by Snake Diggity

  1. 6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

    I think Ferrell is more likely.  Easier to stash someone as a low leverage bullpen arm where their stuff can play up.  Even if Arauz won't strike out that much, his steamer projection is still horrific (.236 wOBA).  He also doesn't appear to be much of a base stealer either.  

    I agree, but even with Arauz, the 12th or 13th position player usually only gets 200-250 PA (~50 games) in a season.  Having a hole in your lineup every 3rd game is acceptable for a rebuilding team who lacks high ceiling up-the-middle prospects.

  2. Arauz could get taken because he is a versatile defender who won’t strike out.  That plays on the bench of a rebuilding team, given his long term upside.  

     

    Riley Ferrell also has a good shot to be drafted.  When you consider that the 7th or 8th guy in a big league bullpen only throws 20-30 innings in a season, it’s really easy for a rebuilding team to hide a guy who has control problems but otherwise has big time stuff and closer upside.

  3. 51 minutes ago, Hank Chinaski said:

    I keep thinking about a deal for Goldschmidt and Greinke...not sure what it would take, but supposedly AZ wouldn't demand too much in the way of prospects for Greinke if we took on all of his salary (~ 90 million for 3 years I think). We have to do something to shore up the rotation for the next few seasons. 

    Still don't think we can afford to deal Whitley in that sort of trade, but if we want to go all-in while we still have this core, a deal like this makes some sense. 

     

    43 minutes ago, Mez2 said:

    AZ has said, i forget where i saw it, they would likely take on about $10 of Grienke's contract with a trade partner, if that helps 

    Arizona needs to eat $20-30M just to get Greinke back to even value, and that is before talking about sending any prospects of note in exchange.  I wouldn’t think Tucker or Whitley would be in play for Greinke even if they ate 80% of the contract.  Hell, to get a decent prospect like Bukauskas or Alvarez I think they’d need to eat half.  Combining Goldschmidt and Greinke (along with eating salary) can help Arizona parlay 2 short term assets with minimal surplus value into a decent long term asset.  Greinke, Goldy, and $40M probably can get them a good package like JB Bukauskas, Cionel Perez, and AJ Reed.

  4. Whitley and Tucker should be off the table for any player with less than 3 years of control remaining, regardless of how good the player is. And even for guys with only 3 years left, they need to be a superstar on an affordable contract.   Probably only 20-30 guys in the entire league I’d be ok with trading Tucker or Whitley for.

  5. Diaz and Marwin posted the same fWAR (1.6) last season.  Diaz will cost ~$10M total over the next 4 seasons; Marwin will cost ~$40M over that span.  Trent Thornton ain’t worth $30M.  Excellent trade.  Only thing is that adding another bat now would bump White or Tucker off the roster.  

  6. If Houston signed Grandal, and Keuchel signed elsewhere, the Astros would lose their 2nd round pick, gain a pick in Compensation Round B (after the 2nd round), and lose $500k of their international signing bonus pool.  So the net of losing a QO guy and then gaining a QO guy is a negative.  And with the new hard cap on international spending, that $500k is more significant; I’d say it’s the equivalent of a 7th or 8th round draft pick.

    But I’d rather have Grandal at $70M/5yr than have Realmuto for Tucker and 2-3 other decent assets.  And I’d probably rather have Wilson Ramos at $40M/3yr than either of those 2 options.  But ideally Houston really does need to wind up with one of those 3 catchers.  (Omar Narvaez and Sally Perez would be the only other 2 available players I’d consider acceptable.)

  7. The Lucroy trade from a couple years ago is probably a pretty good comp for a Realmuto trade; Lucroy was one of the top 3 catchers in the game and had 2.5 years of control remaining.  There was a decent reliever included with Lucroy, but Texas gave up Brinson and Ortiz.  I think the equivalent to Brinson would be Tucker and Ortiz would be somebody like Cionel Perez.  And I do think some team will end up biting the bullet and giving up an MLB Top 30 prospect as the headliner, I just hope it isn’t the Astros.  Now, if Miami was willing to include Dietrich or Steckenrider, or give back a meaningful prospect (their Top 30 is chock full of interesting guys), then it would be easier to consider.

  8. 13 hours ago, UTexasFight said:


    Sounds a bit like a certain #7 retired above the MMP rafters

    We all wish, but no.  Biggio was a legit 5’10” (listed at 5’11”).  Stubbs is listed at 5’10”, but I was 10 feet from him when Fresno played Round Rock this season and if he’s over 5’8” or weighs more than 160 I will eat my hat.  He’s TINY.  And his injury history also suggests he’d have a hard time consistently catching more than 80 games a year.  Don’t get me wrong, he’s a decent prospect, guys with his contact tool who can provide plus defense at an up the middle position have real value.  But he’s unlikely to be a long term everyday catcher.

  9. 4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    That is the exact reason I would not pull the trigger on this trade.  Just some round-ass estimating, but we got a WAR of something like 0.8 out of the C spot last year when you average up McCann, Stassi and Maldonado.  Stassi can give you that... maybe, hopefully?

    Stassi projects for a respectable 1.7 fWAR.  Houston’s catching depth chart currently projects 16th in the league (this will change as free agents sign). If Houston does nothing, their catching unit will likely rank in the bottom 10 in the league.

  10. 1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

    When it comes to catcher, I would prefer defense over offense. We've got a lineup where we can sacrifice having a good hitting catcher. We need someone who throws out runners and is great behind the plate.  It's been a while since we've had a long term catcher that runners feared.  Maldonado had some issues, but he had a gun. I'd love to have both, but with our lineup I'd take defense over offense. 

    To me, offense from the catcher is important because it’s so rare.  Think about it: there are only 5-6 teams who don’t have a guaranteed hole in their lineup, because there are only that many catchers who can hit.  In the playoffs, avoiding a guaranteed out puts so much pressure on the opponents pitching staff, as there’s never a time where the manager can say “he can surely get this next guy”.  Houston having a good hitter at catcher pushes guys like Reddick, Gurriel, Tucker, White, and Kemp down to the bottom of the order.  To me, stretching the lineup like that is far more valuable than a marginal improvement in framing or caught stealing.  But I say all that feeling like Realmuto is a more than adequate defender.

    • Like 1
  11. 4 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

    re: realmuto - i think the window of getting him in a trade that makes sense may have passed.  i hate to send viable prospects that way for 2 years of his bat when (a) the astros don't need offensive production out of the catcher (considering what we have at 2b, ss, 3b, etc) and (b) there are actually decent free agents out there, which there aren't always.  i really wanted in on yelich (even before the breakout) and realmuto during the fire sale.  that shit is probably over.

    re: goldschmidt - if he doesn't get traded, i wouldn't be surprised if we go after him in july (or even pull a beltran and negotiate in june).  i don't see the need to overpay for him now, when the prices change so drastically a few months into the season.  we don't need him in an astros uniform for us to be in playoff position in mid july.  i would like to see us add 1-2 starters (depending on morty) and possibly a reliever before next season, although i like how the pen looks right now.  otherwise, i don't hate the idea of waiting.  these guys know what they're doing.  we made plays for harper, castellanos, a.garcia, and others a few months in.

    re: stubbs - assuming we sign someone new to catch, where does he fit into our future plans?  it seems like he gets thrown into every trade or potential trade.  he's a nice piece, but if he's not considerably better than stassi, i'm wondering what the point is.  what are his defensive metrics?  i know he projects at slightly above average as a hitter, which is saying next to nothing.  i don't know if he ever makes it into an astros uniform, as he seems "blocked" by nobody in particular.  and he's 25 years old.

    Stubbs is an above average defender and has plus speed for a catcher.  He also rarely strikes out.  But he hits for zero power and is absolutely tiny for a catcher.  From where I sit he is a platoon catcher at best.

  12. 27 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

    I'd use Alvarez in a package for Goldy before JTR. We need to find some power at first whether it's waiting on Alvarez, Beer, ? or trading for some. Grandal or Ramos in FA are enough offense upgrade if we can sign one. Love to have JTR but that package might be a tad steep. On the other hand, young hitting catchers are scarce as hens teeth so I wouldn't have a major problem with it either.

    I don’t think Goldschmidt has that much value.  Rental 1B don’t have a ton of value no matter how good they are.  Corbin Martin (or another good 2nd tier pitching prospect) and AJ Reed should be enough for Goldschmidt.

  13. 2 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

    Schoenfield (ESPN) speculated on this trade possibility this morning - would you do it?

    Miami Marlins trade C J.T. Realmuto to the Houston Astrosfor OF Yordan Alvarez, LHP Framber Valdez and RHP J.B. Bukauskas.

    The Marlins will ask for Kyle Tucker or Forrest Whitley. They won't get either one, but they'll get three good prospects if they're willing to part with their All-Star catcher, who has two seasons of team control left.

    That is a fair trade and Houston can absorb that prospect loss due to their pitching depth and the fact that Alvarez was a defensively limited prospect.

  14. 1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

    I heard today on Sirius XM that the Astros and Mariners are in Paxton talks. I think a package similar to Cole would get it done due to his extensive injury history and 2 years of team control left.

    Josh James = Joe Musgrove 

    Dean Deetz = Michael Feliz

    Ronnie Dawson = Jason Martin

    Derek Fisher = Colin Moran

  15. Goldschmidt for Framber Valdez, Derek Fisher, and AJ Reed would give Arizona cheap replacements for Corbin, Pollock, and Goldy.  That may seem like a light package but a rental 1B on a $14M salary just doesn’t carry much surplus value no matter how good he is.

     

    Houston’s lineup with Goldy and Wilson Ramos would be sick:

    CF Springer

    3B Bregman

    2B Altuve

    SS Correa

    1B Goldschmidt 

    C Ramos

    LF Tucker

    DH Gurriel/White

    RF Reddick

     

  16. I never loan money.  It’s either a gift I’m comfortable giving or it’s not happening; ideally (and the majority of the time), it’s my idea and the person never had to ask.  If someone asks me for money (anything over $100), I will talk thru their situation and try to steer them in the right direction.  I’ve found that most of the time when people are asking their friends to borrow money, they haven’t really tried the (better) alternatives.

     

    Other than money, I will pretty much do anything for somebody I know.  Unfortunately because of my current phase of life, more often than not, the person will have to ask me for the favor.  I long for a time when I can be the kind of person who consistently and proactively helps others.

  17. 1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

    If McCullers has surgery then his spot on the 40 can be used, as he would be put on the 60 day DL, which doesn't count against the 40 man roster, it's likely that both he and Martes will both be on the 60 man DL and we can use their spots on the 40, as both are going to be out the entire year.

    I don’t think you can place someone on the 60 day DL until March, so Martes and McCullers will occupy 40 man spots all offseason.  It’s why Jandel Gustave was outrighted instead of 60 day’ed.  But once the deadline passes, yes, those 2 40 man spots will be open.

    • Like 1
  18. 1 hour ago, WBT said:

    Saw this in a weekly AFL writeup on The Athletic:

    The Astros may have their own Ben Emond some day

    Toro is a really good prospect.  All the Astros playing in the AFL are showing well.  Dawson is showing much higher defensive/base running upside than previously thought.  Toro is hitting really well, and showing an elite arm and good glove.  Pinales is showing high 90s stuff with movement.  Whitley and Bukauskas have been dominant.  Thornton is showing an elite CB and great velocity.

    • Like 1
  19. Pretty sure Morton is hurt.  It’s the only reason they wouldn’t extend him the QO.  This front office places an extremely high value on draft picks.  They also arent going to do a player any favors at their own expense.  I predict Morton retires.

    • Like 1
  20. 1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

    what's especially frustrating about marwin, is that he's not the type of player that goes to a mid-level/trending up type of team to start everyday.  he might get that offer, but that's not the best use of what he does.  he'll end up getting offers from contenders who will use him like we did, and i would assume that's where he ends up.  which means we'll likely have to deal with him the next few years in the postseason.  hopefully he goes to the nl.  

    One good thing is when I think about facing any of the free agents, I’m not scared of any of them.  Our offense would rock Keuchel.  Marwin ain’t doing damage against our pitchers.  Really Morton is the one guy I don’t want to play against, and that’s just because he’s so likable.

  21. 4 hours ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

    Somebody who knows more about 40 man roster and Rule 5 draft and such can probably shed some light on this, but it seems to me we may NEED to trade some guys on the 40 man to protect some of our better prospects.  We have guys that are blocked or out of options that need to be gone. I think we will see a trade offer made for Realmuto that makes sense for both teams. Now if it's good enough is another question.

    This year isn’t as bad as the last few in terms of Rule 5 risk.  Here’s who’s eligible:

    Must protect or trade: C Garrett Stubbs, RHP Trent Thornton, RHP Rogelio Armenteros

    Probably should protect: SS Jonathan Arauz, RHP Riley Ferrell, RHP Bryan Abreu 

    Also eligible: OF Drew Ferguson, RHP Brock Dykxhoorn, RHP Akeem Bostick, RHP Justin Ferrell, RHP Brendan McCurry, RHP Cy Sneed, others

    • Like 4
  22. Sign Wilson Ramos $40M/3years

    Sign Charlie Morton $34M/2years

    Trade OF Yordan Alvarez,  RP Dean Deetz, OF Derek Fisher, and SP Framber Valdez for Marcus Stroman

    Opening Day Roster:

    CF Springer

    3B Bregman

    2B Altuve

    SS Correa

    C Ramos

    1B Gurriel

    LF Tucker

    DH White

    RF Reddick

    bench: Stassi, Kemp, Marisnick

    rotation: Verlander, Cole, Stroman, Morton, James

    bullpen: McHugh, Peacock, Devenski, Harris, Smith, Rondon, Pressly, Osuna

    • Like 1
×
×
  • Create New...