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KeysPhoneWallet

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Everything posted by KeysPhoneWallet

  1. My put has until 8/20. This shit isn’t real, it will come back to earth unless amc is our new overlord Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  2. I bought a put on amc at market close. This run up too much to believe Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  3. AMC?? Did you get out before it started reversing? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  4. I bought a 1/22 17.5c on ibrx. Did I throw my money away?? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  5. Here is this thing: Uranium market update, one of the biggest catalysts to date is about to be in place. To say we had an interesting few weeks in the uranium sector would be a massive understatement. We have seen new geopolitical support for nuclear power and a massive new catalyst in the form of the newly formed Sprott Uranium Trust (more on that later). There was also a new version released of the Bear Traps Report, a popular type of newsletter that in the words of John Quakes is “send to thousands of Wall Street money managers”. It is also believed that the initial run up was sparked by the sharing of a similar Bear Traps Report article around November/December of last year, sparking the first leg up with institutional capital positioning in the sector. There is \*a lot\* happening beneath the surface and the coming few months will, in my view, prove to be significant. Here is the first part of the Bear Traps Report with my own added comments as well: In 2020, six nuclear reactors were connected to the gnd. Of these, Belarus and the UAE opened their first nuclear reactors. This, despite the pandemic. We expect this trend to continue over the balance of the century. There are currently 108 planned nuclear reactors globally at various stages of the approval funding process. Different countries get different percentages from nuclear reactors, a sample: China, 4.9%; India, 3.2%, Japan, 7.5%, UK 15.6%, USA, 19.7%. The take away is that between China, the UK and the USA, alone, there is plenty of potential growth in nuclear reactor electricity supply and, of course, these countries have the financial wherewithal to fund the requisite nuclear reactors to go green should consensus so direct. Production from mining (in tonnes U) for 2019 was. 22,808 from Kazakhstan: 6,938 from Canada, 6,613 from Australia, 5,476 from Namibia, estimated 3,500 from Uzbekistan 2,983 from Russia, estimated 1,885 from China, 801 from Ukraine, and 67 from the USA Production in the U.S. has been in steady decline: 2014 = 1,919, 2015 = 1,256, 2016 = 1,125, 2017 = 940, 2018 = 582, 2019 = 67. The main takeaway here is there is a seemingly strong geopolitical risk component to Uranium supply. U.S. production has essentially evaporated, an extremely bullish fact for forward Uranium pricing given Biden's pro-nuclear stance. Production of Uranium concentrate in the U.S. has fallen steeply and steadily (pounds U308): 2,422,789 for 2017, 1,446,496 for 2018, 173,875 for 2019. In the first quarter of 2020-8,989 vs 58,481 in first quarter 2019 vs 226,780 first quarter 2018 and 450,215 first quarter of 2017. Overall, nuclear power provides about 11% of global electricity output. Demand grows alapually in the single digits. Because of low prices, global Uranium supply is down 25%. If prices double, mines will reopen and consolidate. If the U.S. alone decides to go big on nuclear prices will at least double. And assuming prices double, supply will be adequate to power U.S. nuclear ambitions. It goes both ways. The U.S. produces but 7% of its own demand, with 93% dependent on imports. "For strategic issues such as power supply and defense, this is not a healthy situation, and therefore the plan was made for a strategic stockpile, "Gabi Schneider, the executive director of the Namibian Uranium Institute, explains, adding it is ultimately the US's goal to expand uranium production domestically in order to shrink, or halt outright, U.S. imports of Uranium. The U.S. goverment's Uranium strategic stockpile effort passed last December is a key, and telling, first step. At the state level, legislatures have begun passing laws that set up support for nuclear reactors. This represents a big shift from half a century ago. The Biden administration is pro-nuclear power. China's nuclear reactor capacity is set to grow from 46 GWe in 2020 to 108 GWe by 2030. We expect ground to be broken for nuclear reactors over the balance of this decade in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Poland. Projects have begun in Turkey, Bangladesh and Egypt. So it's not just a question of the wealthiest countries jumping in. Consensus thought on Uranium has been remarkably stupid, missing the supply cuts, missing the 5x move in conversion prices (UF6), missing the 40% rise in SWU (enrichment) prices, and missing the recent run up in spot prices (U308). Basically, consensus can't even think one step ahead when it comes to basic economics. It didn't occur to them that money losing mines would be shut down. The US needs to guarantee greater uranium supply. For that it needs U.S. mines to reopen and consolidate. For that Uranium prices have to double. The new U.S. Uranium stockpile could prove a key component to that price shift. Uranium just entered supply deficit Kazakhstan's Uranium production forecast is for its Uranium production to peak next year and to go into serious decline post 2030. ​ All of this comes down to one simple fact, it is that we are running out of time for uranium prices to get going and the longer this doesn’t happen, the higher the eventual price overshoot to try and make up for a decade of lost capex investments and exploration. If utilities come to the table within the next 12 months, some form of price control can be asserted and perhaps a slower run up into a price of roughly 60-65 dollars with a small overshoot to around 80 dollars by 2024 might be the most probable scenario. If they don’t though, we might be looking at triple digit uranium once more. One massive new catalyst that was brought to the table recently was the fact the coming into existence of the Sprott Uranium Trust. The bear traps report names 9 reasons why this will likely have significant implications for the broad uranium market: Uranium Participation Corp was a company that was buying U and sitting on it, the original yellow cake. The market will now have daily price discovery and a retail / family office / small asset manager speculation vehicle. This is a game changer. Now we have a new team taking over (Sprott). Very bullish for uranium. Why? Here is why: 1. We are getting a U.S. listed vehicle with a physical redemption Like a GLD for uranium. Look at PSLV and PHYS, equivalent. 2. A new mechanism for retail, institutional. An at the market facility. Technically a closed end fund, NOT a GLD. 3. Pounds come in, don't go out. They could do a buyback if the market provides that opportunity. 4. Uranium Participation Corp is tough to buy, pink sheet. Many online brokers didn’t offer it, but now there will be a new liquidity vehicle that is far more widely available. 5. Management transition from Denison to Sprott. Think Industry player to real asset mgr. 6. When there is large premium new buyers are vulnerable. This has suppressed upside momentum NOW there is a liquid vehicle, large buyers can come in with a liquidity work out. 7. Next, Sprott does a big offering to bring in new pounds into the fund. There was too much inventory of uranium in the system, this vehicle will eliminate this problem. New size buyers of the fund will quickly translate into spot buying! 8. Think CME and oil this could be a new real franchise /a liquidity central facility 9. Management take over might take 2/3 months. Then the premium U Part will come in, was 16% today in a month or so Dan Loeb can come in and buy $100m without the premium risk pounds will permanently be removed from the mkt NOT an ETF, it’s a closed end fund. A discount may develop in the shares but new buyers are in a much better spot. ​ That marks the end of this uranium market update and I hope you enjoyed the read. With so much happening both in front as well as behind the scenes, hopefully I can be of aid to help you traverse this opaque market in the best way possible. We are at the foot of what will undoubtably prove to be a generational event, but it will be an extremely volatile and wild market all the way up and eventually down as well. If you got any questions or comments, my dm’s are always open. As always I wish you all a good and healthy rest of your day and good luck out there in the markets, cheers! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  6. Lol of course. Don’t know how this shit happens but it always seems obvious in hindsight. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  7. I haven’t been following football closely in a bit so some of these may be dumb questions but, I was pissed when Denver took surtain, that would have been an amazing get for Dallas. I don’t know what to make of Micah, did he sit out due to covid? Does he have injury history? I though jaylon got screwed by the change to Nolan’s scheme, are we still doing that ? Nolan seemed like he sucked. Live has spinal stenosis ? I hadn’t heard that , I thought he just had some neck injury during the season. Is he done?
  8. Is my xom a hold??? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  9. Steel giving me some indigestion but it all seems to be playing out but for the stock prices. I think it’s still a hold. China news was great. All the cards seem great. I’m currently in on clf and x. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  10. What happened to that guy that got fake hit but fell and had to be hauled out on a stretcher??? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  11. Aren’t they able to invent money without inflating the currency because they are the worlds reserve currency, and everything is denominated in $ ??? So basically they can?
  12. I bought a spy 9/21 418c today at around 1:30... hopefully I don’t regret it. Figure over the next 3-4 it’s probable spy goes up...
  13. So I got this fidelity credit card that puts 2% into a 529. ipso facto, I’m done. Question is can only one kid get $ from this or all three kids? I think I can pay for one kid then change the beneficiary to pay for others
  14. My 4/16 clf and x calls are going down in flames
  15. I have some uuuu leaps and they shot up to ridiculous levels today. Gave me false hope of $$$$ went from $80 to $300 but the bid ask was like .8-4.4. So it didn’t make any sense
  16. I got greedy and laid in on some x calls and was hoping for a sweet recovery today but not so much. I figure Clf and x will do well in 2021, but my 4/16 calls may not print. Uuu going up was a god send today RH fucked me on option pricing today so I initiated a portfolio transfer to Schwab. Fuck them, but I can’t change shit until it completes.
  17. Just to be clear, I don’t know what the fuck I’m talking about Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
  18. Bought some eeenf monday at .038 it’s at like .07 today. So that’s cool. Wish I could do it on Rh bc I would have bought a lot more.
  19. I think x has more run in it. I bought a few 4/23 calls today with fingers crossed, but I’m mostly in shares: Lots of fixed expenses so when prices go up profits go up. Shipping is harder bc China sucks, so buy American China is rumored to be reducing its exports by reducing its rebate, so global prices go up Infrastructure bill being announced in Pittsburgh, gotta have steel to build shit Construction costs are known to be going up , steel/lumber
  20. So uuu and ibrx are killing me. These are holds for real, right? Also mRNA and penn killing me. I don’t think I like penn that much but gambling and cannibas seem like places where the pie is getting bigger due to deregulation
  21. Isn’t ped rampant, it’s just the catching them that’s not?
  22. Fair enough. So we don’t give him any man of the year awards, but he’s a damn good fighter though which is what I watch him for. The eye gouging is a gripe of mine too. I’m not sure what to make of the PEDs
  23. People really hatin on Jon Jones. Bc he the best or what?
  24. X, CLF, MT, NUE Pretty much any steel maker is hot right now for a few reasons. 1 infrastructure bill about to roll out gonna require a ton of money to purchase steel 2. Board member from X put on the infrastructure team may be able to direct where money gets spent 3. China may reduce steel rebates lowering their exports and increasing the price globally 4. Inflation may be coming and steel could hold up well in that environment 5. Other technical analysis shit I’m not sure how much to believe in Lots of people in Reddit all creaming about it, see r/vitards.
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