
horn4life
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Rise and shine! Get ready for another week that feels like a month!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Interesting to see Rocket just agree to buy Redfin. I am trying to decide if this is good for Rocket or not? I see how it broadens the possibility of getting both the sale and the mortgage. And possible incentive packaging on a sell and repurchase scenario? But on the flip side of the coin, did Rocket just open itself up to more potential downside pain, if the market doesn't turn? Rates are indeed coming down, seemingly now in concert with declines in the stock market. I don't really see how this is a positive for Rocket, at least at this point. But funny to see "Redfin sucks balls" in this tread followed by "Redfin bought by Rocket!" Redfin nearly doubles in pre-market trading. -
The bottom line on retirement is.... hold your breath... math! I have been semi-retired for a while now. Wife still works full time, mainly to make sure we have good insurance coverage. I make money in the market, doing remodels, and make my money more in chunks. We sacrificed salary in our prime years to spend more time with our kids, and we are glad we did. The good news is we have been using the catchup rules, and poured a lot more into her 401K the last couple years as the market rose. Which also reduced our taxable income this coming year, but next year is going to be a doozy on cap gains. I honestly don't know that I will ever completely retire. She probably will at some point, but the plan now is for her to cut back to part time when she turns 65, and then she will see how it goes. But one thing that I think is true for us, we would be bored doing nothing while we are still in good health (knock on wood). We also have not received any inheritance from either of our families, and that will likely cascade through in the next couple years. The main thing is to try to maintain our health for quality of life. If we can have a few more years of putting money aside, we should be ok. Not a lavish lifestyle, but I don't think we are going to have to worry unless we spend extremely unwisely. The one factor I think that might be a fly in the ointment from a fiscal planning perspective is fucking insurance. Not the health kind. But the home and car kind? IF you were on a tight fixed income the last two years, that is where I see my budget out of whack from expectation. I have about 5 years to create an additional $3,000 a month. As my BIL said when he did not take the Fed buyout, if he can hang on 3 more years, it would be the difference between being just fine, and taking that annual trip to Europe. Of course if I croak, I won't have to worry about a thing!
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I see the appeal of foreign investment. But it's also an economist pet peeve of mine arguing that money mobility makes tax cuts for the rich not necessarily at all stimulative for the US economy. For that reason I prefer to keep my money in US markets. I know all sorts of international overlap of US companies, but at least my capital in invested in the US. I also enjoyed hearing Scott Bessent explain to those of us thinking that tariff policy was roiling the market, is actually the Biden economy that Trump inherited rolling over. Trump and Bessent are actually victims of circumstance. Tariffs? What Tariffs? That is not the problem... Good jobs report on employment, but under predictions, for a premarket dow pop. Tick up in unemployment the trickle I expected. Next week is what I have circled.
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For less $800!!! $799 on sale until April 6th. Mainly it has a 120 refresh rate, which I have not seen before at this size and price point.
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Don't disagree at all. Single best things folks can do is buy a little over time. One of the riskiest is buying a lot all at once, sadly a big red number taught me from experience. Right now I am simply trying to profit in a volatile environment. I still have a strong cash reserve. Almost bought some AMGN today and it's actually fucking green on my board. I just don't have to confidence to yet. But I have no certainty, and thus I have to hedge and spend money to try to protect any gains I get right now. If I was all negative risk on against the market, I would be killing it. But the risk would be far too extreme. I am waiting with cash to buy. Good new is Broadcom just put up a good number. I was worried about a bad one. Not for me but for Tech in general,
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Bought some options, then saw it start to lose momentum, and thought... "you fucking dumbass, you believe in uncertainty" and a bet on PLTR is that I was certain that the bottom had come. So bailed about 10 minutes after I bought those call options. Thank heaven. I think we are going to see a trickle of what next week will be an emergency plumber visit. A little push up, but maybe a few percent at most of the Federal firings? And getting the bonus of that first tariff inflation trickling onto the books as well? Yikes! March 21 was the date I circled originally back at the first of the year as when I thought the effects of tariffs and uncertainty would either hit, or likely not hit the market. My big fear is the uncertainty now is becoming a baked in drag on optimism, which drifts to consumer pullbacks, which drift to and assortment of consumer spending reductions. In what is ultimately a consumer driven US economy, that's not good mojo. So or a reverse money multiplier effect.
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oops
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The problem with the Trump policy at this point is not what the policy is or is not. It's the fact that it is proclaimed one thing, then policy whipsaws exactly the opposite direction. It's not the policy itself (which I personally believe will be very inflationary). But the lack of clarity sort or makes me view the market right now as my UVIX where it will basically daily degrade, under the weight of transactional friction and end of day rebalancing. The friction is now the problem. Because now even if a firm and permanent trade policy was implemented by the administration tomorrow, would anybody? And I do mean Anybody, think that the policy presented would be the final policy? Even if it truly was the permanent new policy, the assumption would be that the policy would again soon be revised. So it might take an extended (compared to normal) length of time for the policy to be widely viewed as actual policy. Right now "Policy" is a tweet, followed up by a very strong and principled appearance by Lutnick. Followed the next day by a very strong and principled Lutnick, strongly asserting the exact opposite. This friction... in my mind is like death by a thousand tiny cuts dragging on the market. My one Plus play in the market in this account is Since I am slightly open to a big drop in UVIX, I took a tiny nibble of PLTR Tuesday, with March 7, $85 covered calls. My net price is $81.04, and I don't get any topside FOMO until $89.70. But making 5% in 3 days, is how I build my original PLTR stake. If it closes OTM, tomorrow then I keep the shares and resell more calls on the next steep move upward, farther out for a larger premium. Of course this only works on a rising stock over time.
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That's why I have such a big bet against the market. But my big downward bet has done so well I have now burned money to hedge back to preserve those gains, in case the market has a nice rebound. If you have nice gains you want to protect you need to develop a reactive strategy, beyond hope. Or the concern will be exactly wishing you could get that capital returned. It is also good to point out that until you sell a stock you have not gained a penny nor lost a dime. Only at the sale point does that occur. OR Infant mortality rates in Texas... (wish I could laugh at that one)
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Is anyone besides me actually shocked at the apparent complete lack of anticipation by the administration of the most obvious pitfalls? I mean was it actually difficult to anticipate that without a carve out US cars will be increase dramatically in price? I mean is that not the most glaring potential problem easily identified? Or am wrong? On the huge plus side! For the first time in years Freshmen in ECO 101, actually get to live out the text they are read studying! Usually economic shifts take longer than a semester to really observe. Often years, but now freshmen can see the effects weekly or daily( perhaps hourly). Probably makes the class a LOT more fun to teach as the discussions and debate would be very current. I guess comparing and contrasting the Tariffs of the turn of the century and today, is a common writing assignment prompt in Economics classes across the nation.
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Russian Oil Exports just surged. Talk of loosening restrictions, no more cyber against Russia apparently, emasculation of Zelensky, paired with eternal deference to Putin. And today freeze on intelligence sharing. Well... it's been a very, very good year for Putin!
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But do you think this is the same actual level of exuberance today, that we had then? When Commerce Secretary Lutnick comes on TV Monday and explains that these tariffs are NOT anything but absolutely necessary because of Fentanyl, and then flips by the end of the next day as markets fall. Suggesting less that 48 hours later the administration may be flexible on what was an absolute necessity hours before? This is the person speaking for US trade policy. And I guarantee you Secretary Lutnick if asked could not write down on a napkin what US policy will be at any given data point in the future. And isn't that the definition of uncertainty? IF this was a corporate rollout... you would short the company. ADP reported big jobs miss, 77K vs 186K. And those provisional Fed folks are going to be hitting the books, about the same time the tariffs should begin to impact inflation. Next Friday is gonna be exciting.
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Anyone know an exterior painter in the Temple/Belton area? It's got a little second story work that is sort of gnarly as the house sits on a steep slope on the lake.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
If you think you can predict anything daily right now, Take your down payment, and triple your money in the stock market in three days! Or three hours with some risky options.! You have a special deal that allows you to qualify based on earnings, you do not yet have on the books. Highly predictable and likely earnings. That's why there is a Doc loan. Take the fucking rate, don't look back. And buy some cheap ass young person life insurance now to protect yourself and your family. Mainly because you have a leveraged loan based on your future earnings. Making sure that your coverage is far beyond that note would be the best way to protect your family. But as everyone with synapses firing has said... take the deal! The banks give you the deal because they know that they have a very good chance of getting that second loan when you don't need a special program because of your debt ratio. If you do both loans with the same company? Those are some sweet fees, and the first loan is less than a 5 year buyout... if you have a doc ego... 😉 -
Right there with you! Sold March $57 calls on 1/3 as my first try to get some cash for downside, and bought $39 puts, and sold $57 on the remaining 2/3 a little later as the gains receded.. The good news is that first 1/3 of calls I sold paid for the cost of the protection/income of the other 2/3. Learned from not keeping my PLTR stops tighter on at least some of my holdings. And that cost me. So at least I have some downside protection and a some more room to run to the upside.
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What's crazy is that this has been the plan for years, and has been fine tuned over the last few months to roll out. The execution of this shit is actually a microcosm of what is to come. When there is not a single soul in a room to offer a contrary opinion, management decisions are often poorly made, and poorly executed. They could have just laid out a timetable, and some clear 90 day guidelines for some reliability in potential decision making. The uncertainty IS my bet right now. You post Waaay back pushed me to start tiptoeing this direction as well. But leveraging something as volatile as UVIX is indeed both fun and scary.
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Good to know that on April 2nd, we will find out what the actual tariffs are going to be. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. These tariffs are going to stop fentanyl, the business ones will be revealed on April 2nd. I thought that might shave off my pre-market. The more I hear him talk, the more I feel very comfy betting against the market right now. Very comfortable.
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It's a risky as fuck ETF that is supposed to mirror 1 and 2 month VIX futures contracts at 2X. It has a nearly 2% expense expense ratio, and I bought it for a hedge against my PLTR, which I no longer own. I should have honestly used put options more to protect the PLTR as Insurance. Would have saved me a nice chunk on the way down. It's supposed the be 2X VIX - I'm in it because I see nothing but volatility in the near term. And tariffs are inflationary. Period. Large capital investment is already starting to wane, as how can a competent CEO's make decisions when economic policy from the Federal Government is akin to roulette? That's why I am in it. It's a short term hedge, that is now my only position. Basically it's a supposed to be a 2x volatility. So a 2x bet against the market.
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This is what I want to learn more about.
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Thought I stopped out on IBRX before the bounce last week. I'm out now. Better just to go eat at Red Ash a few times and at least have losses that taste good.
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Looks like ya'll had a great time!
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I am very sorry for all your losses. I thought about quoting myself a few times, but I can't feel really good about making money when those around me are losing. I am just glad I am betting against this market. What's funny is that while I had a great day. I also know that if the markets go down again hard in the morning. A wet finger will be stuck in the air... and the direction of the wind will potentially reverse todays policy. (if there is not a new twee I missed while writing?) Chaos is my friend right now. And I figure it's easier to bet against something that nobody at all can predict, that bet on something that nobody at all can predict... March 15th is going to make today look like a warmup... PS - I was upside down on UVIX, until I bought more after closing out my PLTR. and I left a LOT of fucking money on PLTR not selling sooner. but in a sweet spot now, at least until morning
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The biggest scam was the opening covid response- "free money for millionaires!" With the stipulation that they would not view amy approved transactions af fraudulent. So free money, need it or not.Cool to get a million tax payer dollars for preserving jobs when you were never going to lay off anyone anyhow. Now if some waitress got a couple hundered extra... THAT is where we need to prosecute. Biggest scam ever.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
FSBO rarely works in the sellers favor, in the long run. If you have people who like the house and wand to buy it (AND HAVE THE MEANS!). IF you have some live wires you can approach them to make competing offers before you list it. You could also do a carve out for the potential buyers you have already dealt with, in your listing agreement. But trying to sell it yourself when you have to move? I assume there is not an open ended, start date? Almost certainly a FSBO home is going to sit a lot longer on the market. And the listing can become stale. You are still going to want a buys agent commission to at least have some traffic of non-lookEloos. IMHO you are better off with a good agent, and a smart competitive selling price. But even if you are determined to go the FSBO route, interview two agents that are recognizable in your market, for a possible listing, market analysis, and suggested repairs and list price. That way you have an idea about what two professionals think you house is worth. And you know in advance who to call if the FSBO starts to drag. Best think you can do is figure out what your house is really worth, and figure out the net price you can live with. Let it be known in the area you would love to sell the house pre-listing. And you could cut costs, with a sales agreement via an attorney. Perhaps even an attorney that could also arrange an affordable mortgage... @Wulaw Horn The fact that you probably have a time factor involved in your relocation alone would make me fearful of the time a FSBO might take. Sell and move on... IMHO
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