Jump to content

horn4life

Legacy Members
  • Posts

    3405
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by horn4life

  1. For me seeing a 2.7% gain in a month, and and average of .45% increases for 5 months has nothing to do with politics. It more my confusion with the glee of a pace of 6% annual returns that has me scratching my head. Back to even... is not political, it's math. Hard to say tariffs (political) are not a big part of the uncertainty, so yes, politics are necessarily part of the calculation. But simply stating that we are not going to have the deals promised is well, is simply accurate math. This market could still run more, as FOMO and TACO are powerful forces. If you jumped in when the market collapsed, then you are kicking ass. But would you be jumping in bigly now looking forward? I would say that the most likely probability, is that the members of this administration have made more money in a shorter period of time than any in our nation's history. What would be most useful is to knowing the timing of the retreats on tariff policies, as that is where the real money has been made. Unless you shorted before liberation day, like me. it will be interesting to see how it will all play out. I certainly did not think the TACO trade would be so consistent. I really thought the administration was going to stick to it's guns more. I will be very curious to see if tariff tax rates, indeed do bounce back to liberation day, for all those who do not have signed trade agreements? Or will it be another episode of the TACO series? Seems like the market is betting on TACO pretty strongly.
  2. I thought this was the tread where markets are falling? The excitement and glee that is getting back to where Biden handed off the market is indeed fascinating to me. You would have thought that the market actually had risen dramatically? I definitely lost some of my unreal early gains betting against Trump's tariffs, and the taco trade has been very strong. It will be interesting for me to see the number of trade deals that will be on the books after the July 4th weekend? But you will most likely not hear much talk from the administration on actual progress, beyond proclamations of success with unsigned deals. The S&P closed out January up 2.7%, today the S&P is up 4.96% for the year... so kicking ass right?
  3. Welcome to the doldrums of Summer and the Dotards of Doom....
  4. Not sure about the Longhorn thong... but still want!
  5. Low ball offers are written because somebody can write them. As you can never get a low ball offer accepted unless you spray them out into the marketplace. It's purely a numbers game, and yes it wastes the listing agent's time. As the percentage of acceptance is ridiculously low. But the hope of the asshole writing the offers is that someone is desperate enough to take that lowball offer. And I would think it sucks to bring low ball offers back to the owner of a newly listed property that you have consulted the owner in setting the best possible price for the property to sell (in your professional. As who wants an offer they are not going to accept? But as the listing agent it's a cross you have to bear. I guess my optimistic logic would be that it's better to be the listing agent most of the time than the sellers agent, if you are going to be on one side or the other of writing low ball offers. Of course if you get a slew of low ball offers because the market is slow... that might drive me a little nutso. Along with the seller. But hell. I think I should be able to shoot the tires out of any 18 wheeler that drives more than a mile in the passing lane on the freeway. So my nutso level is maybe a tad higher than some.
  6. I am pretty sure the time frame roughly matches as the period of time A&M hasn't been forced to pay the annual salary of two head coaches? 👍 😂
  7. Well, now we get to see the least qualified Secretary of Defense ever confirmed in action! I wonder if Pete has the awareness right now to realize how out of his depth he really is?
  8. That's a nice shot. Thanks for letting me live vicariously! Hook'em!
  9. Which hand do you touch yourself with? That defines your "handedness..." But if you lost that hand... you WOULD adapt!
  10. I wonder how the proposed elimination of FEMA will influence the price of real estate and insurance costs for the RE industry?
  11. Not sure I never get that far in. That's the problem. You try to find bliss and you lose business, or other important calls. I have had some very odd spoof numbers lately with the same repetitive BS. With old people its a numbers game of this sort of BS. Eventually somebody's mom or dad gets confused and gets ripped off... if only there was something that could be done about it.... Honestly I could give a shit now about live folks repetitively calling me, it's the fucking endless non-sleeping AI bots.
  12. Just wait until you close in on 65... I get about 15 calls daily, about "the new Trump administrations changes to medicare..." I'm not even on medicare! But fuck, the number spoofing is mind blowing... And yes it's about folks selling your information. Why the fuck can't our government make unwanted solicitations a crime with enough penalties to stop the endless bullshit. It's the best part about going offshore or off grid. No more fucking calls that I do not fucking care about.
  13. It's impossible not to. Tariff taxes on imports cannot be absorbed by manufacturer and US importing company. Unless you think all companies have a shit ton of excess profits they can shed to absorb the new tax. Ultimate whoever buys the product will absorb the majority of the cost increase. It's just math. Market will indeed take off like a rocket if there is no inflation. But we are going to get both unemployment and inflation. And the Fed will simply not know which is the bigger shark until more data comes in. Unless brutal unemployment numbers can overwhelm inflation concerns... hopes for Fed, or Bond market pushing rates downward is a bad bet.
  14. It's all about the "dark arts!"
  15. My point is that folks with less liquidity have less means to ride out volatility when it spirals downward. I am just very uncertain that bitcoin truly insulates against it moving along with the markets downward if things go really bad? I just do not think it is a as decoupled as some assert. I have watched it decouple to some degree for certain. And the uncertainty of US fiscal policy in combination with the potential of the US government embracing of bitcoin. it seems to me that the possibility of the US embracing bitcoin is as much responible for the rise as any other factor. Or am I misreading this timeframe? As I have not been closely following at all.
  16. So I did not know who Lyn Alden was, but got into an interesting bitcoin conversation yesterday. The scarcity aspect I can buy into. And the fact that so many people are spending big bucks to mine it, shows a investment in bitcoin future. But my question is: Is bitcoin truly decoupled from the dollar? Does a stock market/economic crash send bitcoin in the opposite direction than the markets? I can't argue with the math of something increasing in price, especially in the last 6 months. The argument of the similarity to gold I understand, but my big question is the youthful ownership (generally) could make is just as susceptible to steeps selloffs alongside US stocks. Simply as young folks are always in riskier assets, and also have the least deep pockets, so the downsides can be steep. I see the upsides, I just want to be convinced more about decoupling.
  17. We will not have any inflation, and the big beautiful bill does not add to deficits. Also companies take tariff taxes out of profits and therefore consumers will not pay a dime extra! That is all... 😉 Wow... I have never channeled my inner Mike Johnson before.... Sort of fun to say a lot of shit you know isn't true!
  18. Isn't A&M's slogan sort of acceptance of mediocrity, with a dash of eternal baseless hope....
  19. For the love of God. If you are going to watch Steel Magnolias you watch it WITH the wife! You don't throw away those good behavior bonuses on your own damn time!
  20. AI is a game changer here. You have the ability to spoof all sorts of numbers. I get a minimum of 10 calls every day trying to sell me something, enroll me in something, save me from some emergency, whatever. But the new wrinkle I just saw this week was that somehow their AI engine spoofed a Soccer association I used to be active in. Not sure how they got that info, some BBS, or tournament registration material online somewhere? Anyhow, pretty fucking sophisticated. Got me to answer. $13K in gift cards for a friend of ours Mom. The folks at the bank tried to stop her, the folks at HEB tried to stop her, but nobody could stop her from throwing away that $13,000. Then later the daughter of the same woman got scammed into thinking there was some unauthorized activity on her moms account. I think she gave them remote access? $26,000 poof! Luckily they were very liquid and losing $40K was not a big deal. IF there is ANY time urgency, it's always bullshit.
  21. Yep. Hydrostatic water line test. If the house was a flip they may have never used the lines with much flow. But with the hydrostatic test you basically plug the drain line, fill to a level and look for any decline in the water line. Basically a cheap way to try to discover foundational drainage issues. But this sounds like water not from the drains, but from the supply side? Common one is under the dishwasher with a bad unseen connection. Often on new installs where the washer was never run. Super sorry that this is happening to your Daughter.
  22. Well finally starting to see some of the unemployment trickle upwards. Only a 5% increase over predicted, but a rise. Interesting to see the market digest the muting of Trump's tariff powers. Surge initially was over 500 points last night on the Dow futures. Now... about unchanged. "The markets can only focus on the shark nearest the boat," was a phrase I heard recently. Tariffs ahve been the closest shark. Now the inflation is coming most certainly, and the unemployment is beginning to rise. And focus will move towards normal fiscal risks. Like massive deficits to be funded when the 10 year is at most often close to 4.5%... Anyhow it will be interesting to see if the inflation will start to show up in tomorrows numbers or not.
×
×
  • Create New...