For me seeing a 2.7% gain in a month, and and average of .45% increases for 5 months has nothing to do with politics. It more my confusion with the glee of a pace of 6% annual returns that has me scratching my head. Back to even... is not political, it's math.
Hard to say tariffs (political) are not a big part of the uncertainty, so yes, politics are necessarily part of the calculation. But simply stating that we are not going to have the deals promised is well, is simply accurate math. This market could still run more, as FOMO and TACO are powerful forces.
If you jumped in when the market collapsed, then you are kicking ass. But would you be jumping in bigly now looking forward?
I would say that the most likely probability, is that the members of this administration have made more money in a shorter period of time than any in our nation's history. What would be most useful is to knowing the timing of the retreats on tariff policies, as that is where the real money has been made. Unless you shorted before liberation day, like me.
it will be interesting to see how it will all play out. I certainly did not think the TACO trade would be so consistent. I really thought the administration was going to stick to it's guns more.
I will be very curious to see if tariff tax rates, indeed do bounce back to liberation day, for all those who do not have signed trade agreements? Or will it be another episode of the TACO series? Seems like the market is betting on TACO pretty strongly.