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horn4life

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  1. Warning - Potentially boring Fed conversation debate post - Actual industry questions at the end that I am really curious about. So what do you guys think about the bump up in inflation in today's reports as the other side of the Fed's dual mandate coin? It seems as if a quarter point rate cut is built into most all the market predictions. But I would love to be a fly on the wall hearing everyone's point of view. Is this inflation transitory? Or perhaps more accurately what weight is 3% inflation going forward, with the potential to rise as tariffs trickle through the economy? The flip side of the mandate coin is job creation. And while job creation sucks, unemployment is is a fairly comfortable place overall. If you are just looking historically. How bad do individual fed members think the momentum is? Is it markedly higher than inflation? Right now it seems that is where the sentiment is, but I would love to know the high and low predictions of individual members of the Fed say 3 and 6 months and a year out right now. (on both inflation and jobs) The other odd ball thing that has been added to the rate cut debate is the affect of a potentially shrinking workforce, in relation to job creation and in turn unemployment numbers. And what weight members give that (if any) in their forward looks? Right now we are in almost exactly the spot I predicted a year ago. I said it would be a miracle to see the MMI below 6.25%. Simply because of what policy implementation of tariffs would entail creation of a lot of conflicting data, making it hard for the Fed to have moved comfortably downward through the Spring and Summer as many hoped for. Anyhow I just like the debate. Which side of the dual mandate coin will the data push the Fed the next 6 months? Most likely move is a quarter point, with the conflicting data. Not a jumbo half. But fuck what do I know. I sort of fear we get the quarter, and then inflation starts to make it's move, stalling/slowing that next quarter point. -------------------- The good news for the RE market IMHO? Is that folks have seen those rates they just had to wait a few more months for, within sight. So there may be some brisker off season activity than the norm. Basically off the realization that the just beyond the horizon downward moves in rates back to covid/post covid levels are not a guarantee. Not to say rates may not indeed continue to drift downward! Just to say that emotionally folks who have been waiting, probably are feeling pretty good about where rates are right now. OR do you still think that the mindset of the folks that have been holding off is that waiting for lower is still the prevailing mindset? One last question - Do you think that lower rates and longer DOM heading into Fall will also create some price capitulation to help buyers along with lower rates? In other words sort of create a Fall sales graph volume anomaly, to the usual decline heading toward Spring?
  2. Well, if I step back and look at the big picture, there is one thing I love about Manning! He actually scores enough points leading the offense, to allow the backups to come in and get some reps. Last year under Ewers, we would manage to keep games much closer than they should have been, and therefore, Manning got a LOT fewer live reps last season, than most folks (Me) expected. Manning got the majority of his snaps last year because Ewers was injured, rather than mop up duty. My hope is that this season we can indeed blow out the folks we are supposed to blow out. Simply so that whoever our backup QB is going to be when called upon gets some live game reps. To me, getting whoever the back QB reps with live game pressures is always going to be a priority for me. Simply as it's difficult for any QB to survive a complete college season. and it's a lot better to get reps when a little is on the line than everything on the line. You see, I still remember in the NC game when Garrett Gilbert was throwing darts when Colt McCoy went down that were simply much hotter delivery than our receivers were accustomed to. And they were not caught. Was this because Gilbert was too excited? Making the balls hot? Or was that just how hot his throws were normally? Who the fuck knows? We don't know because we did not get our backup QB enough reps in live games. Getting your backup QB live reps, if you want your team to TRULY compete for the top honors, you need a backup QB that has taken live reps in real games with the first team receivers. IMHO. Anyhow, Manning is on a good trajectory, and maybe, just maybe, we can do our jobs well enough this year to get those very valuable reps to whoever might be forced to step in if Manning goes down. When we look at what it takes to develop a championship level team, usually what you are looking for a quality two deep, where you do not have much fall off, moving to the second man up. The one spot that seems to often be overlooked it that backup QB. Getting that backup early (and often) live experience, and be the difference between winning and losing later in the season. My prayer is Manning continues to put up enough points to get out backup QB's some quality reps. That's insurance to me!
  3. Ok.. I paused a sec, and thought agents are liquid... then reread and laughed heartily! Thanks for that, It's been a tough week at my house.
  4. smart ones... with a little liquidity...
  5. Yeah the one thing that the kids do not realize is that THC vape pen, is the criminal equivalent of carrying around 5 pounds of weed. Or at least it used to be, from my recollection. Which is fucking crazy! But my policy has always been, if you are going to break the law... it's good to know the penalties. OP sorry about your son's situation. Probably good advice on a local attorney with contacts.
  6. As I watch PLTR drift down in pre-market closer to the price where my super loose stops washed me out that pissed me off 10 days ago, I feel like better this morning. As the price gets closer to where I stopped out, in pre-market, i feel so much less FOMO. I have a feeling this thread is going to get a lot more popular as we head into the Fall.
  7. In Fairness a couch can be a beautiful thing! Signed JD Vance 😉
  8. We lost to the defending national champions, the same way we lost to them last time. Inability to punch the ball into the end zone. Going 1-5 on 4th down didn't help, but this team wasn't designed to take field goals, it was designed for touchdowns. Even if they didn't get them against the defending champions. The bottom line is we should never have been ranked #1 as we have not proved worthy of such an accolade. Arch did not play well early. We also had some catches that were not made, the usual referee calls, and sometimes... the other team is pretty fucking good. The one thing a non-head coach play caller is good for? Scapegoat... We are very close to being the team we want to be. Arch is going to get more and more comfortable. And now I am not near as werried about Florida as I was last week. I assumed we would lose this game. I hoped we would not, and these are the sorts of games that make college football the most exciting sport I know of. IF Arch isn't sort of dismal early? Who knows... Let's see how the most Hyped and scrutinized kids ever to start as Texas QB, does after his. Hell Tate doesn't make the recovery catch? Sometimes... the other guys are good too.... Something coaches tend to remember more than fans.
  9. Two Funny fishing stories that relate - about 20 years ago we were rented a place on the bay for week on Padre Island. Well I wade fished and kayaked fished for three days looking forward to our guide trip on Tuesday. Well... by Monday night my crotch was basically just this side of bleeding. I knew there was a decent chance we were going to hop out of the boat and wade again, and that quite frankly was sort of terrifying. I had really screwed up, as my walking gait was that of an extremely bow legged man. So I decided to "risk it all!" This is where being married has it's advantages, because I have some good friends, but not to call for this. I decided to lay back, cover up the boys with my hands and let the wife spray NuSkin on the raw skin. Well if you have ever used NuSkin the stuff works, but it also burns like holy hell. And the last place you want it is on your privates. Indeed the pain of the spray was brutal. But several coats later that edge of blood raw skin had at least some protection. The idea worked so well that honestly if I knew for sure I was going to be wading a few days in a row, I might do this preemptively. After that episode I have envisioned a Restaurant with a logo of a very bow legged fisherman, called "Wader's Walk." ----------- The second story is about a day long debate about the pros and cons of marriage of a group groomsmen, flat fishing the day of the rehearsal dinner. Well the pros and cons went as you can imagine. Pros of companionship, newlywed sex, and intimacy were the primary pros. Banging strange, complete freedom, and no commitment were the other side of that same coin. It was is often the case fishing all day, a subject revisited again and again over the course of the day. I can still remember Ted the boat owner saying, "I'v got it!" I was standing on the tower over the engine when he proved that there was a singular advantage to marriage (as in the first story). Ted then proclaimed, "I remember a couple years ago, we went dove hunting in Mexico, and I got a damn tick right between my balls and my asshole..." Pausing for effect. Then he said, "Well, I got some good friends... trailing off. The vision of me calling a buddy to come over and remove the tick with some hot tweezers shot through my mind and I laughed so hard that I damn near fell off the tower. Anyhow tight lines kids, and let's fuck up those Buckeyes today!
  10. Could have been PC's Limited Employee #128... All I would have had to do is stay breathing and employed and Dellionaire bigly status achieved. But I would be divorced a couple of times by now...
  11. If you were a cliff notes student back in the day, I can save you a shit ton of time. "In 2025 A&M will show early flashes of hope before letdown and disappointment. All while carrying the cost of an extra head coach's salary, who they had prior flashes of hope from!" Then just change the year annually....
  12. What is really incredible is the sensitivity regarding folks invoking the name of the person who is without precedent, and without the rule of law, is trying to fundamentally make the Fed a puppet institution to do his bidding. Pointing out that what the President deems a fireable offense at the Fed, is indeed what Texas' own lead law enforcement officer has done as well? IS simply pointing out that Trump's moves are not principled, they are inserting a level of politics into a formally non-partisan and independent Fed. The good news is I got washed out of my PLTR, even with my super loose stops. So not at all worried that things that are not the least bit normal regarding the Fed and our financial markets have now been absorbed as normalized. Pretty damn hard to have a discussion about the markets without bringing in a mention of the main player. But right now everyone is on board. this thread should not exist! As markets are not falling. Lately they rise on even bad news. Inflation is coming but it is coming on gradually. What will be fascinating is to see if the 30 year moves towards 5% with the predicted September rate cut? Or do the CPI numbers come in hot? More importantly if Inflation numbers do ease upwards on the CPI? Who can be fired to try and change that inflation number to something our President likes? That's not political in the least. It's what happened the last time he didn't like the fact he was not producing many jobs... So that's just normal now. right?
  13. Let me guess. One part was itchier than the rest. 😉
  14. Well maybe if you set up some cameras and keep the garage refrigerator stocked with beer, you can get some work out of him. But he knew you had it handled...
  15. HA! That is the mirror image of some of the "help" my wife gets. "Don't worry Mom, I made sis a list of all the things you need done!" Most recently reminding my wife she needs to do something for her Mother's birthday. Of course my wife had that covered... The thing I think that bother's her is, well I take care of everything don't I? Why would I NOT take care of everything for her birthday? It's the most self aggrandizing and completely effortless help some siblings want a pat on the head for... But to be fair she gets a LOT of help from her siblings and she has four. But it's the vacuousness to give somebody doing all the work a "list" of more work..
  16. Why are all the feet on the furniture fucked up? Sorry couldn't resist..
  17. What do you guys think about the more recent move into housing by private equity? I read something last year for example in the Temple area North of Austin, that roughly 1/3 of all single family housing purchases were corporate rather than individual. This seems much higher to me than historically, and I would think would pressure prices upwards at the bottom end of the spectrum. Folks have been buying and accumulating rental properties for years. But I never recall it being in this high percentages outside of maybe after the S&L Crash? Seems like the majority of the homes were in that middle to lower class price affordability range. I have no access to the privy data some of you guys have. Just wondering what sort of influences increased corporate entry into the marketplace? I could point to Zillow's failed buy/remodel/flip model as a failed corporate example. But I am talking about buy/hold/rent increased percentages in aggregate. Which I am ASSUMING is correct. Please correct me if I am wrong?
  18. Yeah probably right. I used to keep a stack of 11 rice tickets in my truck visor, that went unused and unsold, back when I had a bunch of seats. As that season we did lose I think to Arkansas ironically. 2003. Had to go back and look it up. So yeah no losses might be harder than I think. But I was trying to give away those tickets that sat in my visor to anyone who could do a single pushup... So my perception might be jaded. Sept 6th 11 am kick for SJSU and UTEP at 3:15 on the 13th? Those games might be turkey basting levels of heat? Or Sept 10th is the peak of hurricane season. So the I imagine those will be the best chances to get tix.
  19. On the plus side seats will be readily available except for ARK and Ag, for non-season ticket holders.
  20. Well glad I only had one covered call on my PLTR going into yesterday. It's at $162.5, but still a decent return in a short period of time, and a downside hedge had things gone poorly. I was actually worried about the market not shrugging off the removal of accuracy in the BLS but no worries, GREAT numbers are on the way... no matter what! The problem is how do you time a crash in advance? It may not be for months, but I am glad the bad reality was washed away yesterday so I could profit. AI is rolling and propping up the overall value of the markets. And increasing the bottom line for companies, but it won't help most businesses overcome the overall effects of the the Trump tax tariff pretend math isn't real policy. I am scared shitless for when the lemmings realize momentum swings both directions, and that lies about the economy are now the norm for the Trump Administration. (That's the case now, but realizing it will take a while to catch up). Well, they will all be racing to their laptops and wondering why stops did not execute until a price farther below the mark? When the fantasy obscure numbers begin more and more to disagree with reality, but that will not be enough. It will most likely be a violent correction once the tide turns. Hell I am riding the tide too. Only I should have been a lot more riskier the last few months on the upside. But I am wary as shit about what will actually happen over time. ---------------------------------------------------------- And... I didn't even know @ChickenSandwich was vying to become Trump's new nominee to the Fed! Dow went up 4.70% in January, and in the Dow is up 3.83% for the year. That's areally, really, really good job by Trump! 😉 Just look at this chart....
  21. The numbers come with a +/- 100K jobs deviation when issued is what I heard yesterday. Which I did not know as I am not that far into the weeds on the numbers. What's scary firing people for not making things flowery and rosy, even if they are not. So what way is that gonna skew the numbers? Or will it just be, "only upwards revisions from here on out" or... You're fired? The Fed can't fix bad policy that creates both inflation and a drag on the economy with rate moves. It simply can't. I still would not be holding my breath thinking we are gonna be getting a full point reduction in mortgage rates any time soon. Only an economic meltdown will bring that. I doubt you will even see a point before February unless the Fed decides it loves accelerating inflation. Just as I predicted last Fall, Trump's policies are inflationary for pricing, and produce a drag on the economies of both buyer and seller nations. The lucky thing is the AI surge is masking part of the drag. And massive pre-ordering has masked the tariff tax inflation. But the math will be very, very clear over time. We are doing some stupid economic shit if we want a booming economy and low interest rates. There was a path to that, and it got obliterated. The "date the rate, buy the house" mantra has ultimately been a tough row to hoe. One or two year rate buy downs are going to start biting people in the ass. They will not be able to refi at the rate they "were sure was around the corner." So it's either dump the house at a loss, or pony up that extra 1-2% that evaporated with the buydown expiration. It was logical to hope for lower rates, as hope is always optimistic. But when you add a 15% average tax on imported consumables, that will cause inflation and keep rates high. History says housing appreciates over time, so you should be able to make up that point and a half in appreciation if you can handle the monthly payment. When I think about folks that got loans with expiring rate buy downs combined with what may be endless insurance rate increases? You start moving towards folks being forced to walk away. On the bright side, the RE downturn is going to continue to flush out a lot of marginal players in the market, from the lending and agent side. When you add a 40% increase lumber in a single year into the mix? Lumber futures $696.50 Friday, the day after Trump crushed Biden in the debate June 28th 2024, that number was $481. So very inflationary correct? Homeowners insurance rising rapidly, also very inflationary, correct? This thread is not going to have a rosy outlook until perhaps Fall of 2026, so hunker down if RE is how you make your living. The blame the Fed, blame the jobs numbers, blame somebody, anybody, other than who is responsible, is going to become a very popular mantra as Trump's policies come to fruition. 696.50
  22. This is what I am afraid of. And what the Fed is afraid of. I wanted to buy a bunch of August 1st PLTR calls, but was nervous about the report and tariff implementation on. Going to be interesting to see how the market reacts. I am especially interested to see PLTR earnings, against what is going on in the market? I'm conflicted as I think they will report well. But good news on a potentially down day? Who knows. Yeah the underlying AI data trove. I was surprised it shot up so fast but honestly even more surprised on the retreat after the advance? IF your bet is the data, then that did not change. So oversold. Nice premarket move. You good call got me looking at options on the steep rise. selling Sept $200 calls @ 15.50 looks lucrative as well on those shares. As these big bounces usually pull back a little naturally. But always nice to see one of your tickers on biggest gainers of the day!
  23. It will be interesting to see the jobs report this morning. It looks as if the kick the can down the road on the stupidest economic policy ever implemented if you want low interest rates to pay for a masive increase in debt from the Big Beautiful Bill is going to be fully implemented. Or, will as the market reacts, does the usual TACO trade stand ready to step in as usual. How many detailed signed deals have we gotten thus far? We do have assignment tariff tax rates, not deals. I assume that as the impact of this stupid economic policy comes to fruition, and 30 year interest rates push past 5%, the "real problem" will be that interest rates are too high at the Fed will be the administration drumbeat. Now if the new policies wipe out job growth, you should examine what was inherited vs what was produced in Trump's first term. A shit ton of debt, and less job production as income concentration moved to the upper classes. ESPECIALLY compared to what he inherited. I expect the same this go round. The difference this time is that Trump will become less fearful of a bad response to Fed Chair removal as his policies begin to erode the US economy. And somebody has to be blamed? Not the policies... What has been interesting to me is the benefits of AI on profits and the willingness of American companies to mostly eat the tariffs. That was the real benefit of the TACO uncertainty, companies did not want to raise prices if they were not going to have to pass on the costs. Now we may get an awesome jobs report, and then that further makes the Fed making no move. But inflation is coming. And the tariff tax burden will be mostly felt by the middle and lower classes. It's an interesting time we live in. The good thing to remember is that if things really tank, TACO will come back. It's just that you and I will not be sitting int he WHitehouse profitting bigly from knowing the timing of the TACO trade? OR... IS TACO DEAD?
  24. That was so nice of her! Much better, than saying her other guy is better in bed...
  25. All valid points. and up the street has been usually that way for a long time before things go downhill. That's how it was for us, we were just geographically the closest, and for a couple years I got nervous when my phone rang at dinner thinking we needed to race back home to pick up her father after a fall. It was messing with me, as I had been begging them to move to an independent/assistant living. As I was having dreams of standing over him, and us looking into each other's eyes knowing his hip was broken. Sort of PTSDed me a little. But who else you gonna call? They got to see a ton of our kids from the proximity and those are probably some of their fondest memories. You know, I think simply asking if you can help (genuinely) the primary care giver in some way? It's like a lot of jobs. Folks just would like the occasional pat on the back and a little praise. I think the emotional burden is what weighs, and a thank you, or just recognition of your efforts helps a lot. Keep you chins up. Good Karma is coming your way.
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