
horn4life
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OK I'm too busy and I saw some notice regarding my daughter's old 401K with her former employer. I guess she quit early last year and the termination just caught up to the 401K folks, that I also think just recently changed. Anyhow if she does nothing, I think they send her a check. Which might be too big a temptation. It's not a lot of money maybe 10-12K, but better to let grow. She's finishing her Nursing Degree and just changed jobs, so tossing it into a new employer program (if is that possible) is a no go. So wonder if anyone has some device on where to park the money? I also thought about converting it to a Roth but from above you can see I don't shit shit about converting one. But maybe an early tax hit now, for tax free later and more flexibility in offerings? So thoughts? Suggestions? Warnings? all appreciated.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
When you have a 2.89% mortgage and do not have to get the equity out of the home, you can do WTF you want. What I would be very, very curious about is if those houses that come on and off actually sell for that higher price? Or are these the sort of listings that I sort of view as "non-listings" as the price they list as has no chance of closing. Now different story if they are getting that higher number! But are they? You are actually sort of describing the scenario of my daughter and her husband. Did really well on a transfer via shell on both their house and a rate buy down that they are 2.75% I think, and had enough cash for the down that they didn't need a double close. So they can do whatever they want. But if they HAD to sell? Then if the house does not sell and they need the equity? Only choice is reduce price. If no need for equity simply rent the thing forever. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Right now I view rates in a Catch 22 scenario. For rates to really move downward some bad economic shit nearly has to happen. The soft landing has already occurred, and inflation is the Mortgage rate boogeyman. When I look at the dreaded "stagflation scenario," I fail to see how the affect of the Trump policies that have been proposed that do not have an upward effect on inflation, stalling any governmental rate cuts. And certainly not getting the 10 year headed in the right direction. Now it the policies that have been proposed are muted, or not of the magnitude floated then my suppositions my be flawed. I view deficits getting worse as an absolute certainty, along with inflationary Trump policies in the worst case staglation scenario. My biggest concern is a stock market collapse leading the way to panic, and a shift of the American consumer to austerity. Then all the bad things like CC defaults, upside down Commercial RE market, no interest in controlling the deficit push us to a real bad place. Hope like holy fucking hell this is not the case. Because that means that there will be a worldwide recession, and we will all be fucked. ON THE UPSIDE - Jim Cramer was talking this morning about how at some point the sellers who need to sell will have to capitulate and lower their price to induce a sale. Which is the flip side of an interest rate decrease, from a monthly affordability perspective. That has been the historical pattern over time. And if you need to sell a home, price or incentivizing a lower rate buy down are about the only ways to move a house that is not selling. it's the COMBO of sky high prices that have become sticky (too sticky IMHO) and the higher rates that are strangling the market. A little give on either end, would go a long way in helping the industry as a whole. I do think that price capitulation won't happen until late Spring. Simply as when you have uncertainty in the immediate future and you are optimistic then you tend to want to wait and see what shakes out. It's natural human instinct. Expectations of the ability of sellers to get that higher price from the recent past, and buyers whose expectation of that lower interest rate from the recent past are bumping heads. Eventually one side or the other will capitulate. But the idea that prices are gonna come down due to increased supply, and interest rates are gonna come down to offset the higher prices, seem very unlikely to happen together. The change will lead with buyer and sellers both slightly capitulating, and the we will begin to see the MMI move upwards off it's horrific lows. I am hoping my dark thoughts will be eclipsed on the deficit and inflationary front. If that is the case then you can toss everything I wrote above in the trash! -
For me nothing but a big tip of the hat to Scatteboo. You have to admire his dragging himself up to this level of play. Do I think it was stupid to say he was the best back in the country before the game? Same for Levitt, in that it is ALWAYS stupid to talk smack about your opponents before a game. Because there is plenty of time after the game to do the same thing! Show you are better on the field! I think it is honestly hard to say that Levitt did not outperform Ewers. Hell, he would have scored on about 4 runs if we was the UT QB the way the Arizona defense was ignoring Ewers as a threat with his legs. But back to Scatteboo, that mofo left every bit of what he had on the field. Kid showed his toughness, and if Duece Vaughn has a spot on Sundays certainly some team will take a chance on Scatteboo. It was the most disconcerting feeling, watching this young man kick ass, as I lost respect for Sark in not reacting to the defense ignoring Ewers as any sort of running threat. Could have called a naked boot at least. That opened the door for Scatteboo to have a fantastic second half against the good guys. Kid is arrogant, but what badass kid isn't to some degree? But even as disaster loomed closer and closer, and the choosing of Longhorn scapegoats was beginning, I could not keep shaking my head in amazement, and he got pounded relentlessly by our defense and kept going as long as his body could. Good example to any athlete of truly giving it your all. I think Taaffe's comment that the guy veers to deliver the blow, and later having Scatteboo do exactly that says an awful lot about this guy. I personally am gonna root for him going forward. And hope to see his cocky little bowling ball ass in the NFL
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Well we found out that the folks that were buying Tesla, now are not driving demand any longer. With a 1.1% decline in sales for the first time in 9 years. I know that the long Tesla play is governmental influence and roxotaxi's that do not yet exist. But isn't the fundamental business of car companies selling cars? Too early for me to make a hard bet against Tesla, but where are the sales gonna come from now that the brand has lost it's appeal to so many who were buying Teslas?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
MMI went from 200.1 down to 174.9. That's a huge 12.5% drop in a week. No bueno. -
Because I do not do budgetary math in a vacuum! 😉 It's really pretty simple. When you specifically do not answer the question posed and instead answer another question it's simple to be wrong. Tax revenue reduction percentage were made, that EXPLODED the deficit. You see when you do math there is something there is a bottom line figure. Did overall revenues increase? Yes. Did the percentage of revenues collected decrease? Yes. But if you want to PRETEND that a larger overall volume of revenue, that is offset by a far, far larger increase in expenses is something other than digging a deeper deficit hole, you are welcome to do so. AND prove exactly my point about the MAGA delusion of factual reality. But very good contortion to avoid the bottom line of massive borrowing to pay for those tax cuts that HAVE NEVER EVER EVER, produced enough increase in overall tax revenue ,as predicted, to offset the massive borrowing expense of paying for those tax cuts. So I think it's very reasonable to expect that same massive borrowing under Republicans to continue. As it has since Ronald Reagan without exception. I misspoke on 2016 vs 2020. OF COURSE my assertion and the actual facts are accurate in that Biden's bump was larger percentage-wise than Trump's was. In fact thanks for challenge> Apparently I grossly overestimated Trumps bump! I used the Dow. For Trump market closed at 42,221.88 On November 5th 2024 and closed on December 31st at 42.544.22. (.076% increase) For Biden market closed at 27,480.03, On November 3rd 2020, end closed of December 30th at 30,606.48. (11.38% increase) Though in Trump's defense the Biden Stock market has been so strong for so long, that there was likely some profit taking after such a long great run. Biden did not have to contend with anything but Covid, no jobs, and the greatest increase in the national debt percentage wise in 4 years in our nation's history. And the burden of inheriting another exceptional economy is Trump's burden to bear.
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A note of folks wondering what is going to happen in 2025 economically. Remember how excited some folks were, and how Trump's electicion created the biggest bump in Stock market history! And how Trump's policies created more jobs than any President Ever! And Republicans are concerned about the debt! It's honestly amazing to me that none of the above are remotely factually correct, but you can hear these falsehoods repeatedly. You will hear the same extolling of falsehoods this go round. Except the reality is that the GOP has increased deficits by more than the Dems, every single time they have control of all three houses of Government. For example the massive "Trump Bump" for the Market. The Biden bump in November 2016 was about 10%, Trumps 6% mark is what is knows as smaller. Employment must have been good right? Well if you take the 6 month prior to Trump's inauguration and use that average, you look forward and find that after 2-1/2 years in office Trump is about 1.5 million behind the jobs creation number he inherited. But... it was the greatest economy ever we were told ad nauseam. And the Deficit was exploded do to the inability of the GOP to make any offsets for their endless reduction in revenue via tax cuts to save the rich more money. So we borrowed a shit ton, and THAT my firieds was the begiing of the inflation that Biden supposedly created all by himself after inheriting the shitty ass Trump Economy. Trump will have inherited the two strongest economies ever inherited by an incoming President. I fully expect Trump will hand of an economy similr to each one handed off by a Republican since Ronald reagan, he will hand off an economy much, much weaker with an increase in e=deficit spending far beyond the prior administration. Basically I expect historically accurate patterns to be the same. I also expect a record number of folks believing the exact opposite from what is factually accurate. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
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Interestingly enough I almost bought the boneless leg of lamb at COSTCO yesterday. $4.99 a pound! Usually I have been splitting and butterflying the leg to create the equivalent of two thin brisket size cuts. Sear and then cook indirect. Main thing is after all the immediate deliciousness you need to make a Shepards Pie with the leftovers! It's almost as good as the first go round!
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I had an epiphany regarding clarfying butter. I like my milk on ice and noticed the fats clinging to the ice. So I nuked two sticks of butter, kept a close eye on it, 10 second pops, then some rest, then another 10 second pop. As soon as it started to foam I shut the microwave down. Pulled out the ramekin of butter and pulled out a spoon iI had put in the freezer. Using that cold spoon was amazing! The cold spoon literally picked up the fat! I could use the edges of the still cold spoon to scoop the last of the butter fat to the side and easily remove it. I did the frozen spoon a second time after CAREFULLY microwaving the remaining butter until it foams again. Completely fat free clarified butter!
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Move this to the Divorce thread...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
A more colorful view of the shit show, the Mortgage rate graph for the year -
Quinn "La Joya" Ewers - The Man The Myth The Mullet
horn4life replied to Coach pop a bitch's topic in Football
You know what's awesome? Quinn has the biggest stage in the world to show his worth. He is probably as healthy as he has been since the beginning of the season. So the opportunity for greatness is there... right fucking there... for the taking. I hope he goes out there and kicks ass, and then whatever his future is, it is bright. E I am excited for see him go out and kick some ass! As I think he is going to have a hell of a game! So while the most popular sport since the beginning of time is extolling on the superior virtues of the Texas backup QB, a great deal of the complaints against Ewers are honestly complaints about Sark. Specifically playing a less than 100% starter in some of the biggest games Texas has seen of late. I was critical of Sark here, but even though Ewers and every other kid on the team cashes a check, they are still just a bunch of young kids trying to win at a game. I personally hope that Quinn kicks ass so much that folks actually reevaluate his entire season. I personally have hated the 1st down deep ball scripted to stretch the field that simply are not high percentage. And 2nd and 10, isn't nearly as easy to convert as 2nd and 6. The move toward the running game will help in QB protection. And I think you will see those deep ball completions tomorrow. Right now I could give a shit if Ewers ends up in the NFL or Notre Dame. Either will allow him to play another year of football. While these kids cash checks, when they are upper class men they start thinking of the NFL, or am I about to play my last game. I personally hope that each and every Longhorn on the field kicks ass tomorrow. And then the stupidity of the last several pages will be a distant memory. Hook'em and now let's go kick some ass Ewers and company. -
The thing you have to like about Bell's interview is how many times he referred to we, in reference to the team. Seems pretty solid at this point, when he is regretting UnderArmour because he missed a recruiting opportunity! Hook'em Dia! Can't wait to have you officially become part of "we."
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1) Complete the remodel of Dad's house and sell that mofo. 2) Have another good year in the Stock Market whatever happens. 3) Keep paying off the cards every month. 4) Make a move on another property to remodel. 5) Take wife to NYC and make sure I spend at least 2 weeks fishing. _ I know not financial, but sanity allows for better finances!
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Nothing personal but I think when you hop in an buy the "newly redesigned model" with a whole lot of unproven shit on it... it's generally a mistake. As engineering meeting real life durability requirements usually takes a year or two to shake out. A few years in you let the first buyer take all the depreciation, and you have a better idea of the longer term reliability. I will likely consider a 4 Runner when I get rid of my truck. Right now need the bigger vehicle for towing, but eventually 4WD Toyota product is likely on the list. That will pair nicely with the wife's soon to be '22 Subaru Outback that my Dad is still driving. He bought out the back end of the lease and I spent about $5K on long term transferable warranty to 150K. It's easier to let him keep the car until I finish off the remodel of his house. But same rule, low mileage, couple year old car.
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The oligarch play is there for sure. But my real money is that PLTR has operated AI in the most secure environments in the world. My long term bet is that level of security will be more valuable to large and then small commercial customers over time. I did read that Thiel has a $5 billion Roth IRA. I still think that TSLA will have real difficulty holding onto the post election gains. Unless all of a sudden Tesla cars become the new MAGA dualies? Or national pass on Federal robocar standards?
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Today was so supposed to be peak Santa Claus Rally day. I can see a lot of panicky profit taking today adding downward pressure. I'm just trying to get to fucking Jan 1. I have a joke I tell to the young kids that are misbehaving, "Have you heard of Frosty the spanking Santa? I just like to see the confusion on their misbehaving faces. He may be paying the market a visit today. Looks like hedge is gonna hold and PLTR may not take the beat down I was thinking a few minutes in. I might actually have a good day?!?!?
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I hear ya. But my thought is incentivizing investment in vehicles that have had good historical returns as potential future down payments for homes. Sort of like they have 529 plans for education. With the end game being a greater pool over time of actually qualified applicants. Of course then we turn our heads back to supply... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
The movement of corporations into single family housing the last few years certainly has had some affect on demand. I remember when folks were getting stupid high prices and saying, "How the fuck can an investor make money, when the gap between the potential rent for the house if $2400 and the note would be $4300? Unless your paper losses are offset by income someplace else? Who else but a corporation or extremely wealthy individual can repetitively invest in this manner, where the only seeming potential actual gain will take years to realize without massive continued appreciation? Deportations will not only kill lead times, but increase the costs and put additional squeeze on homebuilders. If I was a small to medium homebuilder looking forward, I would be scared shitless. As rates are not coming down markedly anytime soon. I could, of course, be wrong here, but it's hard to see the rays of light that are going to provide downward rate pressure at least in the near term. At the same time the supply side of the equation is the traditional mechanism to create downward pressure on pricing. So we NEED builders to produce more homes! But for the small and medium builders the risk/reward scenario is getting more, rather than less risky. Would you guys agree or disagree with this statement? Obviously you guys talk to builders all the time. Unfortunately I think the real estate business "herd" is going to be further thinned. In the strong markets there are a lot of hangers on, that are not really making a good living in the business, but still producing enough income to make participation worthwhile. Same with the marginal loan writers, appraisers, home inspectors, etc. The industry my be only sustainable for the top tier of performers in 2025. Mainly because emotionally buyers cling to a hope for a further rate reduction, that may not be around the corner. But when you look back at the chart on rates you see the post RE collapse period from say 1990 and 2002 rates were in excess of 7% and the market was sustainable. Largely because that higher rate have become mentally acceptable to buyers. I fervently hope that buyers capitulate and accept the higher for longer that appears to be the case on rates. Right now that's the best single hope I can point to in the marketplace. RE is a great business, but you need to always have a fairly large war chest to come out the other side when things go south as they always do at some point on the graph. The good news is, that on the backside of the downturns, the survivors usually really bank! ****** One law I wish congress would consider this year might be something like a 100% tax credit on any capital gains going back 2 years(?) if those profits were part of a downpayment for a first time buyer. Or come up with some other mechanism for younger first time buyers to create tax free investment wealth to help with down payments. There would need to be some limits on income, but right now the first time buyers have the toughest path to ownership. Anything that would help widen the base of potential buyers with adequate down payments would be good for the economy long term, good for families, and worth the cost the loss of cap gain revenue economically for the country IMHO. Right now the combination of higher prices and higher rates is suffocating for many potential buyers. -
I fell in love with the beat of "Punk Rock Loser" when I first heard it. Then found the lyrics hilarious. Trying to figure out where they would be playing in Austin? Too big for Antones and Continental I assume? Hotel Vegas?
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When I think of Cook I contrast him with a Micheal Taffe interview from last week? Taffe was simply explaining that if you don't work your hardest, don't do you best each and every moment of practice, there WILL be somebody that will push you out and take your place. THAT is exactly how we have gotten to the position we are in today. There is a reason Taffe went from walk on to starter. He approaches every hour of every day as if somebody is right behind him trying to snatch away what is most valuable to him. The most beautiful thing about Taffe's assessment of how to survive as a player at UT. You have to simply never, ever, ever let up. There is somebody as equally talented as you are waiting for their chance. We now have this level of competition at every position on our team. Think the quality of our depth even two years ago compared to today. IF you come to Texas and think you natural talent is going to be enough to be a starter here, you are sadly mistaken. But if you take your talent and work extremely hard, you may not only become a starter. But you will have elevated yourself to a place that you would never have reached with our culture of competition. As said above, it's a lesson that Cook should have taken to heart. Instead of starting at Texas, he's going to repeat the same cycle he had here at another school. I root for every kid, and hope that Johntay realizes going forward that talent is simply not enough. You have to really, really, really want it at Texas to be a starter!
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1) The divorce is a key factor. Simply in that most folks have great emotional difficulty dealing with major life changes of more than on; Baby, firing, job change, relocation, divorce, death are the biggies. So if divorce is truly imminent, figure that shit out first WITH AN ATTORNEY!!!! I have not read the divorce stuff, but the rule is still the same. 2) How is your overall health? Are you a weak and wimpy 57, or is there still some steel left in you to go forward? How are you truly from a health perspective? I would tell you to start taking a walk for your mental and physical health. You need some contemplative time to clear your head, a walk can do that and help you physically. OK now the tough love... 1) Did you expect your partner to work until he died at the office? Do you and your partner really not have an exit plan in place? For either of you? 2) You have assets, and you will walk away with a lot more cash in hand that probably 90% of the people "starting over" at this age. 3) If you and your wife are contemplating moving would not a "starting over" source of employment for you or both of you, a big part of that conversation? If not sure as shit should have been. As by definition you are moving away, selling the business and house were going to create a lot of cash. But enough for no future cash flow at 57? 4) I am a CPA, but have not practiced in decades as my job duties were estimating and project managemnt in the concrete construction business. 5) I am the sales guy.The company is really nothing more than some equipment, some receivables, and cash and a few relationships. If I were starting a company like mine, I wouldn't buy it...just grow it by hiring and making conections. Now the good news! 1) You actually already know what to do! (IMHO). IF you are selling and leaving the state then that's a choice that negates most of your options other than working for somebody else punching a clock. Could you ever punch a clock again? For somebody else? Not take off when you need to at the drop of a hat in a real emergency? Self employment is not easy, but I would find it impossible to work with real structure in a punch in punch out environment. 2) Sounds like you are just emotionally beaten down. In 4 and 5 above, you explain why YOU are the company! And because of that you can save yourself. The real estate market is down, and your business assets are not huge beyond the land. But you already have exactly what you would tell somebody else to do if they owned your business. You have connections in your business already, and likely you have some younger folks you have worked with that you could see forging an alliance with. Perhaps even a partnership over time? 3) Can you go sell more business? OR can you find somebody else to sell more business? Sales drive everything, and as you said you are the sales person, head estimator, and project manager. Find a younger project manager, and free yourself to sell! You also might try to find potential areas of higher profitability to fold into your existing business model? The easy stuff like warehouses is probably less margin simply because it's simpler and thus I assume has more competitors in this space? What about adding the metal pergolas for carports and backyards to your business (IF HIGH MARGIN)? There is safety in numbers! More smaller contracts offer more stability than one or two monster contracts where the stress is huge on the big jobs as well. 4) Is there a career that you can envision, that has the potential to be more satisfying than making the one your are in more successful? If so do the research and that might be your path. 5) I don't know how big your land is, but I might also look for a small up and coming company that could dove tail with your cement work space? Then you have another "salesperson" in that business. So in the example above I look for a metal pergola business to work alongside, where you could get easy pours without you doing anything but the same 24 x 24 slabs over and over with less stress and more margin potentially. Anyhow I feel your pain. Simply as my business largely became dormant when I lost my biggest account, and was more interested is coaching soccer and real estate, than selling promotional products. I still make some money on it, but not much. I would rather risk my cash on home remodels at this juncture. Simply as I like the challenge and actually seeing a finished product. BUT - I am also looking for cash flow and I have the basic bones of a business that I could reignite. I am going to pitch a kid I have helped out for a few years, that I hoped would be the first in his family to get a degree. He's abandoning that to make money, working as a bartender and diligently building a small detailing business on the side. The kid saves like crazy, and will eventually marry his high school sweetheart. I bought him a computer for college, and I think he is a natural salesperson. I am going to try to get him working for me on the promise of giving him control of the business and eventual ownership. Like your business, it's only worth really the receivables and contacts whioch are now minimal. And I don't NEED that income stream luckily. In your case find a way to sustain your business by finding a way to get a partner, ally, or company that needs your business for their business in a strategic partnership. If you can grow you business, and develop some strategic partners that help "sell" your product for you. That IMHO is your best path. IF you could grow your business some and bring in a new younger replacement partner, you can put a plan in place to exit when you are 67, with a multi-year buyout in place because the business survived and your grew it. The business will still be paying your kids in 40 years because you still own that land that your former partner rents from you now that your buyout is complete. Good luck!!!!! And STAY STRONG!!!!
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The primary reason the minimum wage should be higher, is so taxpayers do not permanently subsidize full time workers at low wage jobs.
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