
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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I don't do them a lot, but the bottom line is the reason you are smashing the burger is to get crispier irregular edges IMHO. The sear is the key, and fatty hamburger is some sticky ass shit. I sort of view smash burgers the way I view making homemade tortillas. Without parchment paper you have more mess than tortillas. In fact parchment paper is probably one of the more underutilized tools in the kitchen tool box. The "smash" is simply sustained pressure to get a uniform seal with the sear. Then it's just leaving the damn thing alone until you see the blood boil up to the top. Then you turn it, and DO NOT smash the burger again!!! if you want to elevate the flavor take the time to clarify some butter and use that as your oil! And of course only American cheese! If you are making the mini Hawaiian roll sliders toast the rolls. And you become a GOD! PS - if you are truly making the super seared smash burger in quantity you should get a heavy spatula with a 45 degree angle on the edge. As basically the best way to get the complete sear, is you are literally scraping the burger off of the griddle. Think about how you scrape a flat griddle of debris. Only the debris is attached to the burger in the sear.
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Financial moves to make before 12/31
horn4life replied to StassneyHorn's topic in Business and Markets
1) Max 401K, then Max HSA, then look at Roth. First two are pretax. And you can take both with you if fired. 2) If you sold stock and have capital gains, then look at selling any loser stocks to offset those cap gains. 3) Review all your insurance, bank and brokerage accounts to make sure you have correct beneficiaries in place in case of your demise. 4) Take $100 and carry it around between now and the end of the year. And give it away to somebody, for any reason you deem. You will know the right moment, and it will make you feel really good inside. -
Work hard, Believe, and appreciate the environment you are in. From that... can come true greatness!
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So those motherfuckers were reading my shit here on surly, repeating my words, and pretending it was their own fucking thoughts! Rogers is both an enigma and enema, and if you are dumb enough to part with your money, you can see that at the cinema.
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The only enigma with Rogers, is that he doesn't realize he plays like enema...
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Well, you have to like the Longhorn sense of humor! SEC! SEC! SEC! The Aggies used to chant that as if they were something other than a cog in the wheel. Exactly what they ran away from, came to their house, and crushed... the now 13 year dream of playing in the SEC championship. Texas is like the cool neighbor that screwed your soon to be wife 13 years ago. Then last night, you caught that mofo banging your mom, while she screamed SEC...SEC...SEC! Texas cheers and Aggie Tears, who is to tell which is sweeter?
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Fuck Yes! BWahahahahaha!
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Holy shit! There is a reason Aggie Jokes fucking write themselves. At the top of the second hour of Gameday (1:00:33 to be exact) Pat McAfee is going to stand in front of the cannon to feel the concussion. They lower the swords to indicate to fire the cannon... McAfee winces and contracts waiting for the boom... and... nothing. Fucking Aggies didn't load the cannon. The background comments of "oh no Aggies..." and Fire in the hole, as the guys scramble to get the cannon loaded is fucking hilarious. Thirty seconds later they cut to the Aggies finally getting the cannon loaded and fired... but a competency Misfire! The jokes... they write themselves!
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
LOVE THIS! Heck any after the sale contacts are basically networking towards a future sale via referral or future move of the client. When I was trying to do research on an area I was interested in I would basically tag the houses as priced right, or lingerers with future reductions. One is a lot better than the other. Coming back and showing them you were correct in your listing advice (especially to the more resistant clients) is even better. -
We used to do the dollar dance lunch thing before skipping out to play golf. I used to like to "play Indian." Which meant getting $20 in ones and fanning the cash across my forehead, not unlike the feathers of an Indian head dress.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Isn't this mostly a play on the "greater negotiability" of commissions, as well as competency? The only way I guess it would work is if as an agent you can get the owner to list for a lower price you are certain will move in the market? How many agents list too high, simply because they owner won't listen to the advice of the agent. Then the owner complains about the listing sitting on the market? I think the shocking thing here is the bidding and up front money aspect. Better damn sure have a sales price that will close! I know in Austin on the radio that some agents guarantee the price or they will buy the house. So the concept of a locked in sale price guarantee is not unique in the marketplace. I wonder if the concept will survive or not? If I was a very successful agent, might it "be worth it" to pay for listings if you were very confident in your ability to sell the house at the listing price? You would eliminate wasting time with sellers who insist on pricing too high? Only successful agents with high liquidity, could use this sort of strategy. But is there any argument to be made, that waking up every morning to a slew of potential listings? To listings you can price correctly, or move on from? Anyhow interesting concept that is way outside the norm. But as an eternal contrarian, you often don't know what will or will not work until it hits the marketplace? Of course Zillow thought they could become house flippers... Using a lot of the same (I know I can sell it at X logic) thinking I listed as a possibility for the agent bidding site. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Isn't the biggest problem with Condos that it's more difficult to get conventional financing? Might the new administration loosen the lending rules? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
correct I forgot to mention that as well as a potential factor. Market liked him. Still big moves. Unbridled optimism and animal spirits? I am more looking to hedge after the first of the year. I honestly think the market is going to rally going into December. But like I heard a guy say the other day about stocks and the market. "The trees don't grow to the sky." If the market rolls and I do nothing I will be in great shape. But valuations and Buffett having so much cash on the sidelines makes me nervous. Just not nervous enough to take a huge short term cap gains hit in the last 35 days of the year. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
That blip moved the S&P homebuilders index 5% this morning. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/sphome?countrycode=xx Toll Bros up in a similar chart from $110 in early July to $168+ today November 25th, up over 6% today. As I have said before I come here almost to do research and look for contrarian thinking. My view is that is that I am having a very difficult time seeing the levels of rate cuts that WuLaw sees. Doesn't mean he isn't right, but I am not yet convinced I am wrong. The excitement of investors for home stocks, clearly shows that more folks at this point are betting on and upwards trajectory for builders as an industry. Rocket Cos up over 9% today. All related to that downward move in the 10 year. Those are big fucking moves in stock values, on very small hints at a change of trajectory. Seems too good to be true to me, so I started buying UVIX this morning as a hedge against my Palantir AI gains. I honestly want to cut my PLTR exposure down to my options but hoping this market rallies a bit more and I can shift that gain into 2025. AGAIN - not rooting against rates falling. As I want all you guys in the industry to make money, but I view political uncertainty as huge, and rate cuts as less certain than even I had thought. I still think the FED nearly has to cut in December to maintain a degree of consistency in direction. But the economic data they have prioritized of late, barely suggests that cut is needed? So are some of these stock run ups justifiable? SO IF - you thought that builders were going to have potential issues if rate cuts do not materialize, are there any particular publicly traded builders you think are weaker than the others? -
Game Week Thread Game week 13, 2024, Texas at aggy
horn4life replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I hold this in my heart as we head to A&M this week- 1201 replies
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Game Week Thread Game week 13, 2024, Texas at aggy
horn4life replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
First off fuck the Aggies. But you also have to respect desperation, Kyle Field night games, and like always for A&M playing Texas is and always will be "The Aggie Super Bowl." We have our Destiny in our hands. But so does A&M! This is the biggest single game either team has played in quite a while. A&M is playing for it's first change after 12 years playing in the SEC. I know with all the endless Aggie chants of "SEC! SEC! SEC!" You might mistakenly think A&M has won something of meaning while in the SEC, you would be wrong. This weeks game with Texas is the first time in 12 years A&M has a change at the SEC Title game. THE mighty Texas Longhorns by contrast can push their way into the SEC Championship Game, by winning their 12th game in their 1st SEC season. I expect us to kick their ass. But momentum is huge in a night game senior night final in Aggieland. So we need to stay focused. Your destiny is in your hands boys! Now go fucking kick ass and TAKE what's yours! -
If I were running the tailgates, here is where my mind would drift- 1) get a food sponsor- If It were me I would call my BIL at Smithfield Foods and see what sort of sponsorship opportunities might be available. As they are the largest pork processor in the nation. If you could get Smithfield and HEB that would be the holy grail. 2) I would probably do what I used to do when I ran large soccer tournaments. Create T-shirts as a perpetual sponsorship opportunity for both large and small sponsors to get their names printed on the back of a T-Shirt. And some banner. Think of the shirts with all the sponsors you see on 5K run shirts for example. I combined the T-shirt sponsorships with a goodie bag of coupons and promotions from the sponsors. Not sure the best way to integrate this, but maybe just as a giveaway included in the cover charge? It's more about the sponsors than the T-shirt. 3) Merch - This as you said is an untapped potential profit center. This is also likely where somebody like me might find a lot of opportunities for cash flow generation. There is a reason why Merch is such a big part of the income stream for bands, and concerts. 4) Find a way to compensate whomever you choose to run this. As if they can't make money on it, they won't want to do it over time I think the deal I worked about years ago when I was running large soccer tournaments was 10% of the profit. It wasn't a lot as I had a passion for Soccer, but that little bit of cash made me do it longer than I would have otherwise. And the 10% I got was meaningless, as the profits increased far more than my meager compensation for the Association. 5) What is the dollar amount of the RevelXP contracting? Might that be an area where the person running the show might be able to do more work, but get more comp here? I never knew about Revel XP, but interesting business concept. As commercial tailgating I assume, is a lot like the party rental businesses, in that the profit is made once the basic equipment is paid for. Like the $2500 tent rental my buddy needed as a just in case for his daughter's wedding. That tent was paid for many, many times at $2500 a pop. This is the cost if I were running the event I would look at trying to shift from an expense to a future profit center. (but only if a multi-year operation) 6) Worker bees for setup and breakdown. This is a little out of the box, but I might try to develop a relationship with some of the local non-profit groups, to help with this. Sort of like UT would have group volunteers come in and run the concession stands for the non-alcohol stuff. I assume a lot of what you pay RevelXP for is simply having the warm bodies there to set up and take down the event. It might be the most fun volunteer event of the year in some places (if they don't hate us) Anyhow that's my slow moving morning take. It's honestly sort of an interesting opportunity. Seems like the areas of potential additional cash flow are Merch, additional sponsorship, and replacing the RevelXP expenses with lower fixed setup costs (may not be possible?). Probably other places for small slices of revenue, but those are the larger ones I assume.
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So not a single fucking thought on the actual game time? Though I do enjoy assumptive relationship advice...
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I think I would rather say yes to one of the very few favors my wife of 38 years asks of me. Of course I am not a panicky type... 😉. And, I fucking like her company more than that of others. But thanks for the McCauley Caulkin point of view...
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Well shit. My wife is invited to a shower on game day. That starts at 3 fucking o'clock!!!! I assume they (sort of like me) thought the game was going to be on Friday. The kicker is the damn shower is at The Bowie on Rainey, and apparently there is no parking?!?!?! So the wife want's me to drop her off, and pick her up. I of course will adapt and overcome. But what do you guys think the odds of the 2:30 kick vs the 7 pm kick? I can say fuck it, you find parking. I guess alternatively... where the hell should I watch the game if I am playing chauffeur downtown if it's an early kick....
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes? I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI. Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Hey what do you guys int he industry predict the 30 year and Mortgage Market Index to come in at tomorrow? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I am referring to the 30 year mortgage rate, last week the 30 year sat at 6.81%. My assertions are based on that rate. I expect that 6.81 to what? Barely budge at all with a 1/4 point Fed move? And then budge in the wrong direction? I hope like fuck I am wrong and I am seeing 4.5 rates out the wazoo in the Spring. But right now I am looking at how to keep my stock market gains moving forward in a market that I think is going to be very challenged from an inflation and instability perspective. So 10 years treasury futures, are one of the investments I am looking at, if things go as I expect. I am data mining contrary opinions. We have also in that same 20 year period of low rates had low inflation. My assertion is that inflation fears are going to probably be backed up by inflation reality. I am trying to figure out the best ways to profit if the assertion is correct. My suggesting austerity, and precaution are simply cautionary. Better to prepare for worst case scenario, and be gleeful in a best case scenario. No worries, I take no offense. I am talking broad markets and economics. Not the nuts and bolts specifics of day to day mortgage lending. My appraiser buddy was giving a historical perspective. And nobody in the audience agreed last January that rates were not going to be back in the 5-6 range by last Summer... As far as "your responsibility" it's not. But when you are trying to help out any potential client, you are ultimately trying to close a deal. If you can convince more folks that the number right in front of them (I said capitulation) might be as good an interest rate as they are going to see? Does that get a deal closed? Or just piss them off, because they don't like that assertion? Eventually the market dictates, normality in interest rates. But getting people to sign on the dotted line for the biggest purchase of their lives is an emotional close. At least IMHO. Yep- he replaced Yellen. This is what I am saying. I fail to see where the downward pressure is going to come from. With the exception of a really shitty economy. Which I know none of us want. My perspective is NOT from the mortgage industry. But I come here to get a feel for what folks who work in the industry are thinking now. I used to come for more general questions. Since I have a background in economics I simply see a lot more danger than safety in rates if you are hoping for a large decline. I am also a worst case scenario guy (I have a suture kit in my tackle box). As I try specifically to find any potential negative. If you search hard for the negatives and can't find them, then you just might have a good idea or plan. I am just seeing a lot more external factors making me lean toward rates increasing rather than decreasing. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I don't see a recession coming in the 1st quarter. With the amount of sideline money coming into the stock market after pulling out prior to the election, a 1st quarter recession would only happen if business investment collapses. Which I don't think is a possibility until Q2. Now I am talking the general economy. RE is basically in a recession already. But RE does not define the entire economy. Now Q2? there will be a lot more clarity in the levels of spending and direction of the new administration in Q2. OR employment is a LOT more in the shittier than I think it is, or has been reported. RE is one of those industries, like Oil and Gas that is cyclical. But a period of more than a decade of falling interest rates has made RE nearly non-cyclical, in that the big negative swings that are a normal part of cyclical business cycles has not dipped too far to the negative side. The last year has been about the worst, and you have not see tons of realtors, mortgage brokers, and appraisers shutting their doors. From my perspective I simply see very little that is going to cause rates to recede. Rates should have pulled back with the 1/2 and 1/4 point cuts, but what did we see? So I guess what I am saying is that you guys in the business need to prepare yourselves for a bumpy fucking ride. What I would be trying to do if I was in your shoes is to try and tell the tale (whether you believe it or not) that these rates may come down some, but if your buyers are waiting for 5%. It's a pipe dream. Only when "the norm" is that today's rates are not oppressive, will movement again start in earnest. It's all about the perception and expectation. The sooner folks in the mortgage industry capitulate and can convince buyers that lower rates are not on the horizon, then buyers will not delay, delay, delay, hoping for that house they loved at 4.5% a few years ago. And that will only take place when the majority of folks in the industry think that rates are about as good as they are going to get. As I said before I think we might see 6.25% in the spring. But I would be shocked to see 5%. From a 10,000 foot perspective the industries I see hurt worst from a mass exodus of cheap workers via deportation, are agricultural, restaurants, and construction. Which should naturally increase costs in all three industries. Anyhow sorry to be a Debbie Downer. But the folks that are gonna make money in mortgage lending the next couple quarters are going to be the brokers that can convince their clients that these rates are the "new norm." And that you might be looking at 11% in two years. Simply as FOMO is a great sales tool. The RE market right now is a dream for an interest rate FOMO, that I sadly think is not going to occur. So those that can sell these rates will survive. Those that are waiting alongside their clients for a couple percent drop? Maybe... I would already be in austerity mode reducing my spending as much as I could, if I were in RE. There is a reason you need to save a lot of money in cyclical businesses. Unfortunately this lesson is one largely forgotten in the RE industry, because we have had a very, very long period of low rates keeping things flowing. AGAIN, hope like fuck I am wrong. But I would be trying to prepare myself for a sustained period of reduced income. -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
His was more of a "get used" to higher rates and adapt. That we have had an extended period of very low interest rates that have now become "the norm" of expectations. His basic premise was that the low rates were not and never were "the norm." But a period of sustained aberration, that incorrectly was now viewed as a "new norm." I need to grab a drink with him and make sure I am not misconstruing his presentation. My recollection was that he was regurgitating some of the same mortgage rate thinking, after the market meltdown in the early 80's, and at that point rates were significantly higher than they are today. Then as now, that 6% rate is where the RE industry can be healthy and sustaining. Above that... not so much. Which I think most everyone here is in agreement? "Norms" are all about expectations. And right now higher interest rates are viewed as outside of "the norm" so buyers are waiting for a return to that expected norm. Only after the expected norm is not reached in the time frame expected do expectations change. A good example is, how many people thought that prices would return to the highs we saw here in Austin. They refused to drop their price, as "the norm" was so much higher just a few short months before. There we lots of listings that I views as "not real listings" as they were only listed to see if an extraordinary price could be obtained. They were not really looking or needing to sell, just willing to list to see if that could get that super high price. I viewed these listing as not real, in that they had a price stipulation in the minds of the owners that was not obtainable. Eventually owners who actually needed to sell or move have only one choice, capitulate on price. This will be the same come to Jesus reckoning, on interest rates. But the expectation is still that very low sub 5% rates were "the norm." Gradually the expectation of that norm rate is going to change. Hell, my Dad bought a condo with I think a variable interest rate of like 12%, in the very early 1980's. Covid forced the Fed to push rates down to try and keep the economy moving. I simply do not see what is going to keep pressure on downward rates? Fed is going to cut once more this year, then the government spending picture is going to start coming into focus, with crunchable data the Fed will have concerns about. And the last time Trump was in office the deficit rose to twice twice the annual rate of any prior administration. Deficits put upwards pressure on interest rates. Deficit spending and inflationary tariffs I am afraid are going to short circuit any chance for that 5% you guys in the business are hoping for. As I think the double whammy of increased deficit spending and higher costs due to tariffs will conspire to keep rates higher for longer. I hope desperately that I am wrong, but I think a year from now, today's rates will not seem as out of whack. As time will have changed "the norm" of expectations. If we can just get to 6% then the RE market can at least get it's feet underneath it.
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