
horn4life
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Everything posted by horn4life
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
My appraiser buddy did a presentation on interest rates to a mortgage broker last year. It sort of pissed them off. His assertion was that a 30 year rate of 6% was what was necessary traditionally to sustain the industry. Reading back a few pages, I realized why all the brokers were pissed. It's difficult for so many now to remember when a 7% interest rate was "OK." I think that rates are gonna fall maybe .75 at the very, very most this Spring. In fact honestly that may be generous, as after the December cut (I anticipate) the Fed is going to be very hard pressed to continue cutting. As I think it will start to become apparent that 2% goal of the fed will begin moving in the opposite direction. Hope to fucking hell, I am completely wrong. But a year from now, sadly, I think today's rates may look a lot more reasonable than they do currently. I do not think the 30 year will come close to sniffing 4% this year. I am hoping like hell for 6%, this Spring, but my guess is a 6.2% bottom. Again hope I'm wrong... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Insurance in Florida is about to become one of the key price point pressures. Perhaps Florida will become an adequately funded insurer of last resort, writing policies. But more often than not these things are underfunded. I wanted to check my memory and this was what popped up.https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/11/business/citizens-insurance-hurricane-milton/index.html#:~:text=The state-backed nonprofit home,largest provider in the state. Highlight was they have 1.3 million policy holders and $15 billion, back on October 11th. Not sure what your replenishment rate is, but avg Fla house is $400K, that's $520 billion in insured property, with 1.3 million policy holders. If you can't get insurance, who is gonna lend you money on an uninsurable home? At any rate. One a completelu different subject- what do you guys think about loans of longer duration than 30 years? I can see the fact that most folks don't stay even 10 years in a house, google says 8 years on average. But I can see arguments to the contrary. Just wondering if you all had any thoughts? -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I can't decide how the Bond market is going to react to the election. My gut is that rates (have not acted as usually expected) are still high because of Trumps' viability and the economic impact of his traditional levels of spending combined, with a propensity for inflationary tariffs. Or do they think that either candidate is going to simply spend so massively that is does not matter? My gut is the former. IF so is a Harris wins does that makes the bond bet less attractive with a continuation of "status quo" economic policies? Or is it the latter? Instability in the middle east is also a big factor, but I just don't see Iran risking a big attack due to the potential response. With I also think is part of the interest rate stew. I guess we will know in a week or so. It will be interesting to see the Bond markets reaction in the coming days. If things unfold as I think they will, I think that the bond market will give you guys the drops you are begging for. If not... I am gonna need a cash buyer on my Dad's remodeled Lake House. -
Well... So what exactly is the math from a head coaching expense standpoint to move Aggie tears from October to November 1st? That's a lot of green for a day...
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
May all your dreams come true! 😉. -
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
horn4life replied to bolverk's topic in Cloak Room
Well after seeing Trump's triumphant return to Madison Square Garden, I thought to myself. That is the largest gathering of this like minded group in the Garden since February 20th 1939. With the only exception being that Trump has told us he was a better President that the guy on the wall in the black and white. -
Well I have to tip my hat to Elko, he saw the game slipping away and made a change that literally changed the game. Whether that can prove to be a season changer is yet to be seen, but it was a season saver! A&M hasn't been this close to a championship since the last century, at this point in the season. In fact, I can't remember the last time the end of October offered as many cheers as tears for the Aggies.
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well... that was unfortunate
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I was talking about my early concerts the other day. First buy a ticket concert and go alone was in 1975 (I think)Too Smooth and The Electromagnets , at I think what they called the Farmer's Market in Town and County. First REAL concert was when my Dad drove myself and the two hottest girls at my junior high school to go see Greg Allman and Dickey Betts in November 1973. Bought a lid off the Usher... we were bad 8th graders.... My Dad actually drove us and took a lot of pics. I am going to start searching for those pics in his storage.
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Got the wild hair and went down and saw Alejandro Escovedo at Continental Club last night. Live recording taping, night two of three. It was as always a great show. Alejandro is gonna be one I am really gonna mourn when he passes. Until then, gonna try and see him whenever I can. Apparently the set list was very different from night one, except for mainstays like Castenets according to my buddy who also went Wednesday. Went and saw Restos geezer hour residency last Thursday at C-Boys. They are the remnants of Western Youth, and I really like them. Reminds me of the 80's and Tom Petty on some of their offerings. And I love they always have a guest, who basically plays between Restos' sets.
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I did for the very first time. I was mainly looking for a music poster to match a poster I miraculously found at Goodwill for $4. But I picked up a really nice Rank and File Album. Alejandro Escovedo looks like a baby! Got a Skunks album as well, but it was the second one with the twins, not the original with Jon Dee. So I am gonna look for that one. But a really good haul. I think my collection pace is gonna pick up. As I grabbed a near mint Linda Ronstadt, "Heart like a Wheel," The Pretenders "Singles" album, also near mint or better, and an beat up old Animals album cover with a great condition album inside yesterday at Half Price books. But I got below is the T-Bird's poster I found to match my Goodwill Asleep at the Wheel find. I paid $225 for the T-Bird poster, down from $300 at the end of the day on Sunday. Which sort of stung but it was a good match. Then I went home and saw my signed and numbered Asleep at the Wheel poster was worth at least $250? I was estatic. Anyhow these two posters are going to be mounted on the inside slide back doors on Whiskey/Tequila cabinet. So I am stoked! But a nice poster spread from the convention. Downtown was actually cool Saturday with so many folks heading to the game and track. The wife and I went to C-Boys, for Jesse Sublett's Birthday party with Jon Dee a few hours after my Skunks album find. I anyone finds the original Skunks album I am interested.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I can sort of see it... Secretary of Transportiaton WuLaw... And the tent will play well with the rural voters! 😉 But on point more,the thing that will move the fed is the lowest rate of first time home buyers. But the Bond guys think the uncertainty with Israel and Iran is worth pressing. So until that little snafu has a reasongly predictable outcome... mortgage rates will suck... -
Well that was a beat down. I would bitch about the refereeing but that's a constant that Texas always has do deal with. Imagine if Texas occasionally got dumbass calls in their favor? Anyhow like I said some things are a given, and that's just the lay of the land, and that knocking of our dicks in the dirt was simply a case of being dominated. We played exceptionally poorly on offense, but that's because Georgia came our with their hair on fire, and was desperate. They played with an intensity far beyond what we displayed on both sides of the ball. We played pretty darn well in the third quarter, but it was too little too late. Sometimes the other guys are pretty good too. And this was a case where they flat out beat us. With a 12 team playoff the loss only changes our seeding placement, and we still have the ability to achieve all our goals. But we can't play again like we did this weekend. I agree with the criticisms about Ewers lack of being a running threat. Without at least a threat of a QB run in the college football landscape, it allows great defenses. to simply lay back their ears and attack. Arch has better running ability, but he fared no better, unfortunately. Now we find ourselves in the spot we have been so very lucky and tried so very, very hard to avoid. The oldest tale ever attached to Texas football... a QB controversy. Hopefully we can rally and regroup. But this one is gonna leave a mark. Our dominating victory over OU seems a little less shiny after their beat down by South Carolina this week as well. While we are on the wrong side of the coin on this one, these games are exactly why I love college football. The emotion and unpredictability of each week of College football, that's what makes it exciting. And... emotionally brutal. Let's spit out this shit sandwich, and get back to work. Everything we want except an undefeated season is still a possibility in front of us. Regroup, refocus, and get back to the standard!
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I've gone to San Juan the last few times and they are good. Plus there is the Ice machine nearby at the laundry mat, so for my early fishing needs it's a good choice. First Texas OU weekend I haven't been in Port A the last 20 or so years. Trying like hell to get down at the end of the month, this is a lost year with all the stuff with my folks. And only been down a few times. But October is my go to... I imagine the land for Moby Dicks is prime for redevelopment for some deeper pocketed investors. As that building is how old? I am sort of the same opinion as others, the kids loved it but only decent fare. I actually think Virgina's food is as good as it's ever been. I finally got forced into Grumbles by my buddy because of his Pina Colada love, and when you add a dark rum floater it was pretty good. Still haven't been to Sip House, but it looks fairly happening. Fingers crossed down in two weeks.
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Dominant - Big B rules! Dominate - We're Ganna Run It!
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Well when you are first and goal at the end of the game and can't punch it in? You got your dick knocked in the dirt son....
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
Did you restrict the rental on AirBnB to 30 days or more? After having our house flood and seeing what shitty 30 day furnished rentals go for, I have become convinced that if you can swing it, 30 day furnished rentals are the way to go. There is also no hotel motel tax nor reporting necessary on the 30 day+ rentals. As they are considered long term. Really nice to have her folks involved in the process. -
OC Write-up: Culture, Authority, and the Myth of Player-led Teams
horn4life replied to Bodacious Bevo's topic in Football
I was grading you anyhow... did you not see the Jack Daniels... 😉 -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
What if any weight do you guys think the Fed puts on the housing industry beyond employment numbers? -
OC Write-up: Culture, Authority, and the Myth of Player-led Teams
horn4life replied to Bodacious Bevo's topic in Football
My snap response - Because the coach can't fucking do everything! I started my post with read premise only, as this is close to my heart. But as a courtesy, I went back and skimmed (as good as my profs got) your assertions. All teams are player led. Which can be good or bad, as every team a freshmen walks into has leaders. The real question is what do those players prioritize? as you paraphrase- But the demographics of a young age cannot both be, negative because of youth, and positive, because of ability to influence. (I circled that on your paper 😉 ) Which I think is sort of bullshit. As I think leaders lead, they don't control. They show examples and they assert their power, not as in individual but as a part of a core group. In a university setting every kid coming is was an alpha/leader/imposing control. The reason team leadership is so important ,and is a reflection oftentimes of the the( or A) coach is obvious. BUT - that's where recruiting and player evaluation fuck the simple argument. Super talented misfit toys, are the fucking worst thing a coach can have. Because THEY are the leadership. And they do not give a fuck. Since you are talking about Sark specifically in your references, I would suggest (if your are writing a paoer 😉. ) That you test your assertions with research on Sarks USC team where he shit the bed. There were "leaders" there as well, but it's might be an interesting contrasting negative argument, in your sociological argument. FWIW. If I were in your line of study I would say a two specific things; 1) All groups of anything are dog psychology. 2) And that being able to choose your subject, completely and totally, after four years, is like choosing your children to raise at a dog breeder. This is the odd one. Can you harness the power of bad dogs to become good dogs? The singe hardest thing a coach ever has to deal with is the super talented shitty teammate alps, that is a primadonna, is a cancer to "culture." What I think Sarks secret weapon is, beyond the obvious ability to evaluate talent at both the player and coaching level, is his approachability. Sark was a fuck up, HE fucked a fantastic job, ruined his life because of a vice, and has somehow come out of those ashes. Which is why I personally think that he does so damn well in the portal. I always knew he could pull the right kids in normal recruiting, but I think his history is even better in the portal. The portal is full of kids that either miss home, fucked up (we don't take those), or they want more money for their talent. Probably Sarks hardest job now is NOT TAKING the super talented "wrong guy." The culture cancer. The secret IMHO is to find kids that have a commitment and dedication to something beyond themselves. People like that can be molded to a common goal. You need 3 or maybe 4 of these sorts of Alpha players to build a "team ledership" structure in a D1 size. But the key is the right character kids. Most coaches don't have Sarks luxury. We are in a great place, but I would argue fervently that if Sark were reading your paper, he would say his influence over his players has a lot to do with his evaluation of his players. Probably more specifically their parents, to evaluate good teammate or not. The talent is always there, or Sark is not talking to them. But do they "fit?"S Sponsored by Jack Daniels and a couple extra english classes.... -
All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
horn4life replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
It's because the dumbasses WERE late. Not matter what "staying ahead" spin they want to pretend. They need to go 1/4, and 1/4. Then if they want to pause I am all for it, but the only way NOT to be behind is to actually be ahead... Sorry guys. If they skip, then they induce more unpredictability into the market. IMHO. IF the go ahead and cut the 1/4 then they simply keep on course, and it's not as confusing. For both the mortgage rate and the stock market. -
Sponsorship provided by The American Cardiovascular Surgery Association... And the only dirt I would be bustin' on the back 40 after eating that would be to dig a hole.... to poop in....
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Total Wine earned my business a few years back, as I was planning for my daughter's wedding. Now I have thrown a lot of parties, and I am VERY good at determining what and how much folks will drink. I knew that since the crowd was going to be a little younger that booze more so, than either beer or wine.tner in Austin But my wife and daughter were very concerned that I was not conforming to the "suggested guidelines." Well I discovered that Total Wine would accept RETURNS!!!!! So I bought a lot more champagne, and wine that made the wife and daughter happy, and made me happy because I was not going to have to drink the leftovers for a year. So that ability to return unopened bottles was the lynchpin for my loyalty. I just did some research on Scotch yesterday comparing specs and Total Wine. I don't think I found a bottle I was interested for less at Specs, and they always beat Costco's Western Beverage partner. Spec's wins on the cheese front though.... Total wine also has classes I had a lot of credits to, but I never used any of them
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Aggies are putting a beat on Mizzou. Hell.... this is about their best win I can remember. And don't tell me about that game in 1939...
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